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Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

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  • Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

    A revolution in Azerbaijan would no doubt be a benefit to us, as the opposition has stated that they would agree to concessions on Karabakh if elected. But on the other hand I doubt the opposition can organise like the one in Egypt and be able to overthrow powerful Aliyev.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/baby...-protests.html

    Opposition groups in Azerbaijan are calling for the release of a 20-year-old political activist who was arrested last week after posting a message on his Facebook page calling for Egypt-style protests in Baku's central square.

    Although Azerbaijani officials denied the arrest was politically motivated, the situation highlights growing tensions between opposition groups and the government following the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

    Two days after the Egyptian protests began on Jan. 25, the government appeared to launch a preemptive strike against an similar uprising in Azerbaijan.

    The government's anti-corruption commission, which is overseen by presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehiyev, convened Jan. 27 for the first time since 2009. In the following weeks, several government officials have made announcements promising far-reaching anti-corruption measures within government ministries. According to the newspaper Yeni Musavat. 18-year president Ilham Aliyev is also considering reshuffling his Cabinet and calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Artur Rasizade.

    At the end of January, government employees received orders to "avoid irritating the population and to work effectively and build public trust,” according to the news website EurasiaNet.
    Like in Tunisia and Egypt, government corruption, nepotism and heavy-handed limitations on freedoms of speech are widely regarded as the primary sources of public discontent in Azerbaijan, said Rashadat Akundov, a political activist in Baku. Azerbaijan came in 134th out of 178 countries in an index of citizen perceptions of corruption, compiled by Transparency International in 2010.

    "The regime's promised [anti-corruption] measures are a show. Frankly, we've seen how this regime treats its people, and we don't believe they will have real effects," Akundov said. He said the lack of public protest in Azerbaijan in the last several weeks is not an indication of complacency, but of people's fear of government crackdowns. "That will change. I believe there will be protests in the near future."

    On Feb. 7, a small group of young activists gathered in solidarity with Egyptian protesters around a statue of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in a park in Khirdalan, a suburb of Baku. The protesters held signs reading, "Be off Hosni Mubarak" and "Dictator Exit." The police disbanded the gathering after a few minutes.

    A week earlier, a group of about 100 opposition leaders and human rights activists gathered in a central square in Baku calling for new parliamentary elections, threatening popular protests if the government did not comply.

    Jabbar Savalanly, the young political activist who was arrested Feb. 5, has been stridently critical of the government in online forums and is a member of the opposition group Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan. He called for a "day of rage" -– a term borrowed from protesters in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen -– on a posting on his Facebook wall. He was arrested on drug charges.

    In an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Azeri-language service, Ministry of Internal Affairs spokesperson Orkhan Mansurzade said the arrest was not politically motivated. "The person has admitted that he possessed drugs. Nobody cared about his political affiliation," he said.

    Opposition leaders and youth activists say the drugs were planted on Savalanly, citing two other cases in which political activists have been arrested on alleged drug charges.

    Freedom of speech in Azerbaijan has come under international scrutiny in recent years after two young bloggers, dubbed "the donkey bloggers," were jailed for 18 months after posting a satirical video online in which one of them wore a donkey suit and poked fun at government corruption.

    -- Haley Sweetland Edwards in Tblisi, Georgia
    Մեկ Ազգ, Մեկ Մշակույթ
    ---
    "Western Assimilation is the greatest threat to the Armenian nation since the Armenian Genocide."

  • #2
    Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

    Originally posted by Mos View Post
    A revolution in Azerbaijan would no doubt be a benefit to us, as the opposition has stated that they would agree to concessions on Karabakh if elected. But on the other hand I doubt the opposition can organise like the one in Egypt and be able to overthrow powerful Aliyev.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/baby...-protests.html
    Where did you read that? Even if they did say it, I don't believe it. The opposition is the Musavat party, the same butchers that led the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic in 1918-1920. Musavat also has Pan-Turkic roots.
    Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

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    • #3
      Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

      I had read it in a Armenian paper few months ago, if I find it I will post it, I believe though if there is a revolution it will be replaced with a more democratic but more religious regime, which may even mend relations with Iran.
      Մեկ Ազգ, Մեկ Մշակույթ
      ---
      "Western Assimilation is the greatest threat to the Armenian nation since the Armenian Genocide."

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

        I have always wondered whether a revolution in Azerbaijan would be in Armenia's interests or do we prefer Azerbaijan remain a despotic, corrupt regime so it crumbles on itself. I tend to lean on supporting the latter, I simply don't see much benefit for Armenia from Azerbaijan turning more "democratic".
        Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

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        • #5
          Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

          As for an Islamic revolution, we certainly don't need that. What we need are Jihadists in Azerbaijan causing trouble for the government where there is an internal struggle that is constant and never changing.
          Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

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          • #6
            Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

            You can imagine how disastrous it would be if Armenia had such a civil unrest or worse full scale civil war. Azeris would not spare a minute to attack karabakh if there was ever a chance of civil war in armenia, just look at their attacking following march 1 events. That is why we need to keep stability right now in Armenia, no room for large scale protests until karabakh is solved.
            Մեկ Ազգ, Մեկ Մշակույթ
            ---
            "Western Assimilation is the greatest threat to the Armenian nation since the Armenian Genocide."

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

              So long as Alieve is in power there is not going to be a big war. The way things are today there is benefitial to us. Alieve cares about his money and has nothing to gain in war with kharabagh and much to lose.
              Hayastan or Bust.

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              • #8
                Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

                I agree, as long as Alieve's palms are greased, there won't be a need for a greater power grab.
                "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

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                • #9
                  Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

                  According to businessinsider azerbaijan is in top 10 where revolution could happen.

                  The 25 Countries Whose Governments Could Get Crushed By Food Price Inflation

                  #10 Azerbaijan
                  GDP per capita in USD: $5,315
                  Food as a percentage of total household consumption:60.2%
                  Net food exports (as percentage of GDP):-0.6%

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

                    Interesting take...

                    Foreign Policy forecasts Azeri revolution
                    February 18, 2011 - 19:59 AMT 15:59 GMT
                    PanARMENIAN.Net - Azerbaijan is facing a possibility of riots similar to those in Arabic states, according to Foreign Policy. “Among similarities are dynasties and authoritarian rulers, opposition parties, paralyzed democratic institutions and a nation deprived of a right to elect and change the authorities,” the article says.

                    “In 2003, when the power was transferred from Heydar Aliyev to his son Ilham, opposition held mass rallies. At present, Azeri officials state that current riots in Arabic states can not affect Azerbaijan. However, local experts disagree. Unemployment, poverty, corruption and authoritarianism in Azerbaijan exceeds those in Arabic states. Opposition and independent experts believe that despite the unperturbed statements, Azerbaijan’s ruling elite is seized by panic. The official anti-corruption campaign of Azeri authorities, initiated in late January, is a proof of it,” FP stresses.
                    Մեկ Ազգ, Մեկ Մշակույթ
                    ---
                    "Western Assimilation is the greatest threat to the Armenian nation since the Armenian Genocide."

                    Comment

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