Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

[Federate]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

The problem with authoritarian type states is that they tend to be plagued by high level corruption. Unrepresentative government is not ideal and maybe the Armenian kettle shouldn't call the Azeris pot black.

Precisely why I want Azerbaijan to remain as authoritarian as possible.

[retro]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

I have always wondered whether a revolution in Azerbaijan would be in Armenia's interests or do we prefer Azerbaijan remain a despotic, corrupt regime so it crumbles on itself. I tend to lean on supporting the latter, I simply don't see much benefit for Armenia from Azerbaijan turning more "democratic".

The problem with authoritarian type states is that they tend to be plagued by high level corruption. Unrepresentative government is not ideal and maybe the Armenian kettle shouldn't call the Azeris pot black.

It's my understanding that the clerics in Azerbaijan are Iranics. Whilst some kind of Kurdish political class, lord over their "mentally challenged" Azeri slaves. Aliyev is a Kurd is he not?

[Alexandros]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?


This screenshot taken Thursday afternoon shows the Facebook page for 'Great People's Day in Azerbaijan.'


Azerbaijan arrests 'Facebook protest' activists

Thursday, March 10, 2011

BAKU - Agence France-Presse

Azerbaijan has arrested five young democracy activists for trying to organize a nationwide day of protest in the ex-Soviet state on the social networking site Facebook, an opposition party said Wednesday.

The "Great People's Day in Azerbaijan," which has been called for Friday, is an attempt by activists in the tightly controlled Muslim-majority country to latch on to the mood of revolt sweeping through the Arab world.

But authorities have emphasized that they will not tolerate even small-scale unsanctioned protests and have arrested leading activists on what the opposition claims are spurious charges.

"A campaign of young activists' arrests is under way. The authorities are using illegal methods to suppress the opposition," Isa Gambar, leader of the opposition Musavat party, told AFP.

He said five young activists, Baxtiyar Haciyev, Saxavat Soltanlı, Cabar Savalan, Dayanat Babayev, and Raşadat Axundov, have been arrested so far, under "ridiculous accusations of hooliganism," such as speaking loudly on the telephone in a public place.

Haciyev, who was sentenced on March 4 to one month in prison, has already been arrested twice in recent months.

Babayev, an activist from the opposition National Front party, was arrested on Monday, followed by the arrest of Soltanlı and independent activist Axundov on Tuesday.

Savalan was arrested in February in the city of Sumgayit for alleged possession of drugs.

Amnesty International has called on Azerbaijan to "stop this crackdown immediately and allow activists to organize peaceful protests."

In a statement issued after Haciyev's arrest, the U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, Matthew Bryza, said he would "continue to monitor closely this case and the cases of other recently arrested youth activists."

Azerbaijan's Turan news agency reported that Haciyev went on hunger strike and claimed he had been tortured in prison.

"They were twisting my arms, beating me with fists, insulting me," he said in a letter quoted by the agency.

Just before his first arrest, Haciyev stood as an independent candidate in parliamentary elections in November 2010, during which he criticized the Azerbaijani authorities and described the polls as rigged.

"[Baxtiyar Haciyev] has been continually harassed solely for peacefully expressing his views," said Amnesty International.

Western observers assessed the vote as flawed, but President İlham Aliyev's ruling party, which won a landslide victory, insisted that the election had "conformed to European standards."

Local media said Haciyev was listed as one of the creators of a Facebook page talking of a "people's revolution" in Azerbaijan.

The group's page on Facebook, the online social networking site used extensively in the revolt that toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, said, "We are on the road of democracy and intend to follow this road until the end."

Energy-rich Azerbaijan has been courted by foreign governments as a source of oil and gas supplies, but critics have accused the West of tempering criticism of rights abuses in order to safeguard their economic interests in the Caspian Sea state.

Masters of vast Caspian oil wealth, the Aliyev family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993 when İlham Aliyev's father, Heydar, became president. Heydar Aliyev was succeeded by his son when he died in 2003.

Opposition critics accuse the Aliyev dynasty of rigging elections, crushing dissent, jailing opponents and stifling the media in the country of 8 million people.

Link

[Mos]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

Interesting take...

Foreign Policy forecasts Azeri revolution
February 18, 2011 - 19:59 AMT 15:59 GMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - Azerbaijan is facing a possibility of riots similar to those in Arabic states, according to Foreign Policy. “Among similarities are dynasties and authoritarian rulers, opposition parties, paralyzed democratic institutions and a nation deprived of a right to elect and change the authorities,” the article says.

“In 2003, when the power was transferred from Heydar Aliyev to his son Ilham, opposition held mass rallies. At present, Azeri officials state that current riots in Arabic states can not affect Azerbaijan. However, local experts disagree. Unemployment, poverty, corruption and authoritarianism in Azerbaijan exceeds those in Arabic states. Opposition and independent experts believe that despite the unperturbed statements, Azerbaijan’s ruling elite is seized by panic. The official anti-corruption campaign of Azeri authorities, initiated in late January, is a proof of it,” FP stresses.

[Karabed]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

According to businessinsider azerbaijan is in top 10 where revolution could happen.

The 25 Countries Whose Governments Could Get Crushed By Food Price Inflation

#10 Azerbaijan
GDP per capita in USD: $5,315
Food as a percentage of total household consumption:60.2%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP):-0.6%

[KanadaHye]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

I agree, as long as Alieve's palms are greased, there won't be a need for a greater power grab.

[Haykakan]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

So long as Alieve is in power there is not going to be a big war. The way things are today there is benefitial to us. Alieve cares about his money and has nothing to gain in war with kharabagh and much to lose.

[Mos]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

You can imagine how disastrous it would be if Armenia had such a civil unrest or worse full scale civil war. Azeris would not spare a minute to attack karabakh if there was ever a chance of civil war in armenia, just look at their attacking following march 1 events. That is why we need to keep stability right now in Armenia, no room for large scale protests until karabakh is solved.

[Federate]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

As for an Islamic revolution, we certainly don't need that. What we need are Jihadists in Azerbaijan causing trouble for the government where there is an internal struggle that is constant and never changing.

[Federate]

Re: Could Egypt inspire revolution in Azerbaijan?

I have always wondered whether a revolution in Azerbaijan would be in Armenia's interests or do we prefer Azerbaijan remain a despotic, corrupt regime so it crumbles on itself. I tend to lean on supporting the latter, I simply don't see much benefit for Armenia from Azerbaijan turning more "democratic".