Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

[Eddo211]

Eurasianet:

The phrase "bellicose rhetoric from Baku" is by now a firmly entrenched cliché of Caucasus journalism, independent journalist Joshua Kucera published a story in “Eurosianet.org” referring to Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister Safar Abiyev’s statement that Azerbaijan is seriously preparing for war with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh.

It’s worth reminding that Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister told OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs that Azerbaijan is seriously preparing to liberate its territories. “It's hard to know how seriously to take these sorts of statements; Still, that statement sounds, to my ears, more blunt than normal,” Kucera writes.

“The present Armenian leadership makes no such pretence. A premeditated resumption of hostilities by Armenian forces is not likely, but cannot be ruled out, as Yerevan commentators and some military officials, notably in Nagorno-Karabakh, warn of a “preventive war” if the entity comes under imminent threat.”

According to the columnist Armenian military analysts are confident of a tactical advantage, as their forces control most of the high ground around Nagorno-Karabakh. The northern positions are naturally well protected by the roughly 3,000-metre high Murov Mountains, while the lower, eastern flanks are mined and fortified by several lines of trenches. Any offensive beyond Fizuli and Jebrail would be literally and figuratively an uphill battle over difficult mountain terrain for Azerbaijan, requiring at least triple superiority in troops and arms, or a significant combat air advantage that Baku lacks.

“NKR Defense Army subdivisions are ready to confront any aggression of the rival,” NKR DA press speaker Senor Hasratyan told Panorama.am making remarks on Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister’s statement that Azerbaijan takes efforts to free its lands from occupation.

Source: Panorama.am

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I agree with pre-emptive actions to maintain the sovereignity and safety of NKR.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

I wonder what Russia has in mind for Azerfakejan, will they support the armenian army going all the way to the caspian sea? Armenia would finally have a border with russia. It's all about russia guys, what they want will happen in the end.

[ara87]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

Yes they would win.

They'd have the support of Turkey behind them, as well as probably NATO and the rest of the world. Even if other countries don't technically help Azerbaijan, they wouldn't probably help us either. We like to think Russia will always have our back, but we never know for sure what they'll really do. Georgia would risk angering Russia (asuming it's on our side) and fight with Azerbaijan b/c a win for Armenia on Karabkh could mean a future win one for Armenia one day with Javakh. As far as Iran goes, They don't want a more powerful Azerbaijan to the North, but they also don't want Christians conquering Islamic Lands, they prefer things the way they are now, and don't want either of us to win and become more powerful.

A war with Azerbaijan (no matter who started it) has 3 likely out comes.

1. A return to the status quo with another ceasefire
2. We split Karabkah 50/50
3. We lose Karabakh


The only way we could possibly win is if Russia, Iran, and Gerogia helped us, each of them got a chunk of Azerbaijan to result in something like this,




But chances of this are very slim. Even if we all did team up against Azerbaijan, that doesn't take into account the true ambition of Iran or Russia, both will race to Baku and try and get as much territory along the caspian along whatever else they can. Iran could also stab us in the back and take Nakhichevan. There's also Turkey's involvement. Russia, Iran, and Georgia might be willing to take on Azerbaijan, but Turkey has a huge Army and something tells me if they invaded Armenia, Russia, Iran and Gerogia would abandon us.

Then again Russia, Iran, and Turkey could cut some last minute deal where they all split up the South Causasus, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia would all be screwed.


In the end it's better just to leave things the way they are for now.

[UrMistake]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

By military means they will not,how can they win they dont have any advantage ,help of turkey you say or better rest of the world ?

Axper go check second time your sources cause i can see major flaws,you are left behind .

[Armanen]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

Yes they would win.

They'd have the support of Turkey behind them, as well as probably NATO and the rest of the world. Even if other countries don't technically help Azerbaijan, they wouldn't probably help us either. We like to think Russia will always have our back, but we never know for sure what they'll really do. Georgia would risk angering Russia (asuming it's on our side) and fight with Azerbaijan b/c a win for Armenia on Karabkh could mean a future win one for Armenia one day with Javakh. As far as Iran goes, They don't want a more powerful Azerbaijan to the North, but they also don't want Christians conquering Islamic Lands, they prefer things the way they are now, and don't want either of us to win and become more powerful.

A war with Azerbaijan (no matter who started it) has 3 likely out comes.

1. A return to the status quo with another ceasefire
2. We split Karabkah 50/50
3. We lose Karabakh


The only way we could possibly win is if Russia, Iran, and Gerogia helped us, each of them got a chunk of Azerbaijan to result in something like this,




But chances of this are very slim. Even if we all did team up against Azerbaijan, that doesn't take into account the true ambition of Iran or Russia, both will race to Baku and try and get as much territory along the caspian along whatever else they can. Iran could also stab us in the back and take Nakhichevan. There's also Turkey's involvement. Russia, Iran, and Georgia might be willing to take on Azerbaijan, but Turkey has a huge Army and something tells me if they invaded Armenia, Russia, Iran and Gerogia would abandon us.

Then again Russia, Iran, and Turkey could cut some last minute deal where they all split up the South Causasus, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia would all be screwed.


In the end it's better just to leave things the way they are for now.

Ara87, you have no clue what you're talking about and if I didn't know better I would say you are an azeri.

First, Armenia's military is much better trained than azerbaijan's and holds the high ground. The azeri military does not have nearly enough attack and transporation helicopters to bring their soldiers to the Armenian line of contact above the valleys. They do not have enough troops to attack Armenia on multiple fronts if they hope to launch a blitzkrieg in one central area, that being the Fizuli region.

Second, turkey would not help azerbaijan overtly especially if that means war with Russia, which it did in the 90s and even more so today then it is not worth the risk of igniting a massive war, which they'd lose. There is no question that an azeri attack on Armenia proper would bring Russia into the war and there is now more statements from official Moscow that an azeri attack on Artsakh would be very bad for azerbaijan. You and others, including aliyev jr. can read into that whatever you'd like but I see it as a clear warning and more than just a prediction of an outcome.

Third, Russia is the preeminant power in the Caucasus full stop. I do not care what turkey or Iran have to say about it, and in the case of the latter they will stay neutral or side with Armenia, again, just as they did in the 90s. And a turkish incursion into Armenia wouldn't be looked upon kindly in Tehran either.

Fourth, georgia is almost a none issue, they will try to get benefits from the conflict however they can as it is in the georgian nature to kick someone when he's down. If they overstep their bounds they too will find themselves at the mercy of Moscow and will lose whatever independence they currently hold.
People act as if the eu or US would do anything, no they won't because they are in a terrible economic situation right now and the last thing on their mind is Artsakh. Of course they have interests in the region but they are not going to allow azerbaijan or turkey to plunge the whole of nato into WWIII over land that really holds no material value for anyone other than Armenia.

I shouldn't have to explain this as it as been posted so many times before by others and myself, but I guess this is the state of thinking in some diaspora circles, it is sad and pathetic!

[Eddo211]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

Yes they would win.

Are you serious?.....they are going to get "Getto Stomped" this time.

Plus Azeris have alot more to loose this time around than Armenians.....I am sure Turks are Azeris on this Forum would agree with me, what do you say Wanted?

[Mos]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

If Azerbaijan could win a war with Armenia, they would have attacked a long time ago. They know very well that our positions are very strong and it would be extremely difficult to take back mountainous karabakh. Our armies are assessed frequently as the best fighting force in the region, and we have really developed our army well. Azerbaijan has too much to lose if they attack : oil wealth, investments, reputation (eg eurovision), not to mention a second humiliating defeat. In my view, they are just hoping that someone like Levon becomes president and sells Karabakh to them.

Russia, in my view, though our ally, is playing both sides - Azeris after all have oil and gas which Russians want. And thus Russia has sold weapons to Azeris as well, and continues to utilise the radar base there.

The West, aside from some statements, won't get involved like in the Georgia conflict. They have enough problems on their hands.

[ara87]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

I am in no way saying what is depicted on that map is actually likely.

The map was in response to a question if Russia was ready for an Armenian invasion that went all the way to the Caspian Sea and to share a border with us, implying that somehow we could takeover the whole of Azerbaijan. All I was implying is that if Azerbaijan was up for grabs you could bet your ass off that Russia and Iran would do whatever it took to get as much Azeri land as they could before we even see a snippet. There is no way either of those countries would give up a chance at more Caspian oil.

As far as a war goes

If no one else gets involved maybe we'll win, but even with a geographical advantage, the Azeri army is larger and has more money and could basically wait us out if they wanted until they succeed. The reason they aren't doing that is b/c they're biding their time building up supplies, etc, b/c they know they're not ready, and they are waiting for us to make the first move so they can portray themselves as the victims so they will receive more sympathies.

And it unrealistic to think that other countries won't play a role in this conflict. And as far as counting on Russia goes, sure they're for us now, but who knows who'll they'll support in a couple of years? Also they said they'd only help us if Azerbaijan was the aggressor, if we make the first move who knows what will happen.

As for Turkey, they have the 2nd largest army in NATO, and they could lend troops, supplies, weapons, etc to Azerbaijan, and get the support of NATO behind Azerbaijan, since quite a few NATO countries dislike Russia.

As for Iran they don't want either Armenia or Azerbaijan to get out of this stale-mate, b/c it would mean having a stronger neighbor to the north, which is why they're so keen on helping us out, b/c a somewhat stronger Armenia keeps Azerbaijan in check.

But as for supporting Armenia in a war that results in us officially including Artsakh, maybe Nakichevan, and more, that might be to much for them, especially since it's can be viewed as Christians taking Muslim land

[hrai]

Re: Would Azerbaijan win a war with Armenia?

I am in no way saying what is depicted on that map is actually likely.

I don't think anyone gave any regard at all to the map, another lot of crayon drawing on paper. People disagreed with your statement that the baboons would win.

As for Turkey, they have the 2nd largest army in NATO, and they could lend troops, supplies, weapons, etc to Azerbaijan, and get the support of NATO behind Azerbaijan, since quite a few NATO countries dislike Russia.

Which countries and these countries, could they lead NATO into a war? I doubt it.

But as for supporting Armenia in a war that results in us officially including Artsakh, maybe Nakichevan, and more, that might be to much for them, especially since it's can be viewed as Christians taking Muslim land

I don't think Iran would give a rat's ass if azerbaboon was reduced in size and noise.