Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Keeping good relations with Iran has vital importance for Armenia



“Armenia – the ally of Iran and the United States, demonstrates how the tension between Tehran and Washington may disturb the diplomatic balance in the region. While the tension between Iran and the West approaches its boiling point, it is becoming harder for Armenia to agree with frequently conflicting alliances within her rather complicated circle. Armenia’s fragile situation illustrates the potentially destabilizing consequences between the West and Iran not only in the Middle East, but also in the South Caucasus,” says the article entitled ”Between Iran and the U.S.” published in The Christian Science Monitor.

The author of the article thinks that a new global attention to the region increases the local tension, which put the states in the center of competing interests. Russia, the United States, European Union, Turkey and Iran make important political and economic stakes on the region. “Keeping good relations with Iran has vital importance for Armenia, a tiny and isolated nation. Her main borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed, and up to this moment the country is in the situation of cold war with Azerbaijan because of Nagorno Karabakh, a non-recognized state of ethnic Armenians, which legally remains a part of Muslim Azerbaijan.

But the United States is Armenia’s main donor and the only financier of the humanitarian aid to Karabakh. During the coming 5 years Armenia will receive $235 million financial assistance via President George Bush’s international development project known as Millennium Challenge Account. Analysts say a military conflict with Iran will be catastrophic for the region, and a lot of people in Yerevan fear that its consequences will have their reflection on Iran’s South Caucasian neighbors – Armenia and Azerbaijan. In their parts politicians fear that if this conflicts does not reach military interference, increase of tension between Iran and the West may disturb the thin diplomatic balance in the region,” the newspaper reports.

Link: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/arm/?nid=22372

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

And don't think Democrats will change anything because these types of geopolitical/economic matters are decided above the heads of presidents and/or politicians.

All indications seem to be that the neo-cons are now "flip-flopping" to the demo-cons. In particular, Hilary Clinton.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

All indications seem to be that the neo-cons are now "flip-flopping" to the demo-cons. In particular, Hilary Clinton.

In my opinion, a reptilian megalomaniac like Hillary Clinton would be just as bad if not worst than anyone within the current administration. Nevertheless, regardless of who will win the US elections, let's all realize that US presidents are nothing but high level representatives of major corporations and slaves of several major political lobbying firms.

The 'only' American politician I truly respect is Patrick Buchanon.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Azeris caught in US-Iran tussle



A planned protest Tuesday highlights long-brewing frustrations of Iran's largest minority, which some say Washington is trying to exploit to undermine Tehran.

Baku, Azerbaijan

When ethnic Azeris take to the streets of northern Iran Tuesday, they'll be closely watched for signs of a growing nationalist movement – one that may be getting caught up in a larger tussle between Washington and Tehran. Nominally, Azeri Iranians will be marking the first anniversary of large protests sparked by an insulting cartoon of a xxxxroach speaking Azeri. But at a deeper level, they're driven by long-brewing frustration that their cultural rights have not been respected in Persian Iran, where they have a history of being on the front lines of upheaval. Tehran is wary because, according to some, the US has tried to tap into those ethnic tensions as a possible pressure point for promoting regime change within Iran. Though interest from US Department of Defense officials and others has receded over the past year, at least publicly, ethnic Azeris say they feel even more vulnerable as a result. "These US officials have actually damaged our cause," says Ahmad Obali, a US-based Azeri Iranian activist and head of GunazTV, which broadcasts to ethnic Azeris in Iran. "Not only have we not received anything, but Iran is blaming us for being sponsored by them."

Hersh: US recruiting Azeris in Iran

Seymour Hersh brought widespread attention to claims of covert operations in Iran when he reported in an April 2006 New Yorker article that US troops in Iran were recruiting local ethnic populations, including the Azeris, to encourage local tensions that could undermine the regime. The US has denied such reports, though it acknowledges several initiatives related to Iran: It's established an Office of Iranian Affairs; committed $75 million to promoting democracy in Iran; installed an "Iran watcher" in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, as well as other cities near Iran; and helped Azerbaijan build a radar station on the Iranian border for the stated purpose of monitoring the Caspian Sea.

But Mr. Hersh and others, such as Massoud Khodabandeh, an Iranian analyst at the Paris-based Center of Research and Terrorism, suggest the State Department may not be apprised of everything the CIA might be doing in the region. Mr. Obali says Hersh's article was based on valid information at the time of publication, but that the situation has since changed. Ethnic Azeris have meanwhile taken pains to distance themselves from these reports, which, along with the declared $75 million for democracy promotion within Iran, have been used by the Iranian government as a basis for crackdowns and arrests.

Azeri legacy of challenging Tehran

By far the largest of Iran's minority groups, ethnic Azeris have long played a complicated role in Iran's domestic policies. A greater Azerbaijan was split into northern and southern parts in 1828. The northern half became independent Azerbaijan in 1991, while the southern half remains part of Iran. In Iran, ethnic Azeris have a history of being well integrated into the highest power structures – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, for one, is Azeri – as well as a legacy of frequently pushing the Iranian government hard on its policies.

Revolutionary activity in Iran in the early 1900s was centered in Tabriz, a majority ethnic Azeri city. After a failed attempt at autonomy in 1944, an ethnic Azeri group threw its weight behind the Islamic Revolution in the 1970s in the hopes of regaining their cultural rights, but those, too, were dashed. The current nationalist movement, which has gathered strength since Azerbaijan's emergence, has been hamstrung by an internal lack of unity and threats from the Iranian government. "We want to function systematically, not secretly," says Sadiq Isabeyli, head of public relations for the Baku branch of an Azeri Iranian activist group based in Iran. "But the government says we're enemies of the state and promote the interests of foreign countries and the United States."

Just how much the US has been supporting ethnic Azeris within Iran is unclear. A bulk of the funding is going to radio and television programming. Yet only one Azeri Iranian radio program – Window Into Iranian Azerbaijan – is broadcast into Iran, for only 10 minutes once a week. And support for the program, which comes from Voice of America – the US government's official radio and television service – started years earlier, says its host, Khadija Ismayilova. The US has also courted ethnic Azeri activists, such as the prominent Mahmudali Chehrengali, granted asylum in the US several years ago, who claims that initial interest from various high-ranking officials has tapered off.

"The usual suspects in the administration who are hawkish have tried to pick up this issue [of tapping ethnic minorities in Iran], but cooler heads have prevailed," says Svante Cornell, research director of Johns Hopkins Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and an expert on Azerbaijan.

Why US backed off

Part of the moderates' cautionary message appears to be based on the US experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is rife with sectarian fighting. "I think the US government is very cautious that it could influence the domestic policy in the country, because it has had such failures recently in that regard," says Patrick Clawson, deputy research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a leading expert on Iran. Analysts say there are several key reasons why the US has stepped back from working too closely with ethnic minorities: fear of alienating Persian Iranians who are well represented in the US, the Azeri movement's ultimate goal of full independence, and the desire to prevent antagonizing Iran.

"While not excluding any Iranian citizens, we're not targeting ethnic minorities," says a US official familiar with US policy in Iran. "To single them out is to support Iranian accusations that we want revolution." Mr. Cornell agrees. "If you were going to do something serious and subversive in Iran, you would use the Azerbaijani minority," says Cornell. "But the US doesn't want to split up Iran; it wants to change it internally." While the US may have backed off from supporting Iran's ethnic minorities, its desire for end results may be unchanged. "Right now the trend I see is that the US is hoping the minorities will do something as a unit," says Mr. Obali, the GunazTV head. "But having an interest and hoping for something doesn't necessarily mean they are going to spend money."

Link: http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0522/p06s02-wome.html

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

In my opinion, a reptilian megalomaniac like Hillary Clinton would be just as bad if not worst than anyone within the current administration.

Probably worse.

The 'only' American politician I truly respect is Patrick Buchanon.

Who unfortunately doesn't really engage in politics anymore. But he's doing some good with his writing.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran files charges against 3 Americans

By WASHINGTON POST Published May 30, 2007

WASHINGTON - Iran has formally charged three Americans with espionage and endangering national security, the government's judicial spokesman said Tuesday, signaling a widening clampdown against U.S. citizens in Iran.

The three individuals charged are prominent Washington scholar Haleh Esfandiari; social scientist Kian Tajbakhsh of New York's Open Society Institute, which seeks to promote democracy; and correspondent Parnaz Azima of the U.S.-funded Radio Farda. Iran announced over the weekend that it had uncovered U.S. spy networks and protested to the Swiss ambassador, who represents U.S. interests in Iran. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the charges a "perversion of the rule of law, " while a State Department spokesman said the charges are absurd and appealed to Tehran to immediately free the Americans. "These are individuals who are private citizens. They are not party to any of the policy disputes between the government of the United States and the government of Iran, " spokesman Tom Casey said.

Rice said she did not see a link between the charges against the three Americans and the fate of five Iranian Revolutionary Guard members detained by U.S. troops in January in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil. Iran has acted against two other dual U.S.-Iranian citizens, including California businessman Ali Shakeri. The fifth American has not been named. The charges came one day after landmark talks between U.S. and Iranian diplomats in Baghdad over the future of Iraq. The talks ended a 27-year diplomatic freeze. Human Rights Watch criticized Iran's actions. "The charges announced by the judiciary are politically motivated, and the only evidence they have are professional activities, such as organizing or attending international conferences. This is truly a witch hunt, " said Hadi Ghaemi, Iran analyst of Human Rights Watch.

Iran's Intelligence Ministry and state-controlled TV reported last week that Esfandiari, a Potomac, Md., resident and director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, was charged with "crimes against national security." But the new charges are more specific and serious. Spying is a capital crime in Iran. The Wilson Center said it is extremely disheartened over the news from Iran. In New York, a spokeswoman for the Open Society Institute - established by philanthropist George Soros - said the charges against Tajbakhsh are without merit. A Radio Farda spokesman said Parnaz's attorney believes she has not been charged with espionage but with spreading antigovernment propaganda.

News source: http://www.sptimes.com/2007/05/30/Wo...arges_ag.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran gas project’s progress irks US


Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh shakes
hands with his Indian counterpart Mani Shankar Aiyar.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan, India and Iran this week came a step closer to realising a $7bn natural-gas pipeline, a project that is likely to irk US policymakers trying to contain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Billed as a “peace pipeline” by the three countries, which are currently negotiating terms in Tehran, the project is designed to slake Pakistan’s and India’s soaring thirst for energy and strengthen regional co-operation. Pakistan, for one, says it can’t afford to let the project fail. But Washington says it can’t afford to let the pipeline succeed, as the revenues would further Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. Analysts say this stance could backfire if it undermines Pakistan’s key strategic function: fighting terrorism.

Key to that fight is sustained economic growth underpinned by ample supplies of natural gas, a resource that Iran has in abundance. “The only option we have is Iran,” says Pakistani premier’s adviser on energy Mukhtar Ahmed. In April, the US embassy’s charge d’ affaires in Pakistan, Peter Bodde, told reporters that “we will continue our opposition (to the pipeline). At the same time, Pakistan should put more focus on finding means for alternate energy resources, such as from coal or wind or solar energy.”

Members of Congress have also bared their teeth. In March, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, suggested that foreign governments investing in Iran’s energy sector should be targeted with sanctions. Islamabad insists that it will go ahead. “Our public opinion, our governments, our people want us to pursue our national interests, and we will pursue that,” Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz told reporters when asked about the US resistance. — Internews

Source: http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topic...1&parent_id=23

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran says dead rebels had U.S.-made arms -media

Rebels killed in clashes with Iranian forces this week had recently infiltrated border areas of the Islamic Republic carrying U.S.-made arms, an Iranian commander was quoted as saying on Thursday. Ten rebels and seven Iranian border guards were killed in clashes in a northwestern area close to Turkey, according to Iranian media reports on Wednesday and Thursday.

"The weapons ... included M16 weapons which are being provided through channels linked to forces present in the region," General Rastegar-Panah, identified only with his last name, told state radio. The report referred to "American-made weaponry and arms".

Tehran often accuses its old foe the United States, which invaded Iraq in 2003, of trying to undermine Iran's security by backing insurgents operating in sensitive border regions. The Intelligence Ministry said last Saturday it had uncovered spy networks, mostly near its western borders, working for U.S. and British intelligence services.

Iranian daily Hamshahri said the seven border guards were killed in fighting with "armed terrorists" on Monday. State media on Wednesday reported the deaths of the 10 "anti-revolutionary" rebels in the same region. The fighting took place near the town of Salmas in West Azerbaijan, a northwestern province inhabited by ethnic Azeris as well as some Kurds, during a three-day operation aimed at clearing the border areas, the media said. Rastegar-Panah said the rebels were backed by "forces affiliated to the world of arrogance", rhetoric which Iranian officials have used in the past to denounce Western powers, even though he did not mention the United States by name.

"Hopefully we will be able to destroy the bases they have set up near our borders in order to give a crushing response to such plots hatched by foreigners on the other side of our borders," he said. Iranian Kurdish rebels linked to Turkish Kurd guerrilla group Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) usually operate in other parts of northwestern Iran. The United States accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear arms and of fomenting instability in Iraq. Iran denies the charges and blames the presence of U.S. forces for the violence in its western neighbour. The two countries, which have not had diplomatic ties since shortly after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, on Monday held their most high-profile talks in almost three decades when their officials met in Baghdad to discuss the situation in Iraq.

Source: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L31710825.htm

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran-Armenia pipeline in progress



Armenia's national gas company has pledged to build the second and final segment of a natural gas pipeline from Iran by the end of 2008. Iranian Shana news agency quoted the Armenian daily Armenia Liberty making the announcement.

The Iranian and Armenian presidents inaugurated the first 40-kilometer Armenian section of the pipeline stretching from the Iranian border to Armenia's southeastern town of Kajaran in March. Armenian officials have said their country would be able to import large volumes of Iranian gas only after the construction of the pipeline's second, much longer segment that would extend it from Kajaran to the southern Ararat Valley. The Arminfo news agency quoted chairman of the ArmRosGazprom (ARG) operator Karen Karapetian, as saying that his company, which is controlled by Russia's Gazprom, has already begun work on the 197-kilometer segment and plans to finish it late 2008. He said ARG would invest USD 149m in this stretch.

Armenia currently imports approximately 1.2 billion cubic meters of Russian gas each year, which generates about 40 percent of national electricity needs and serves as the main source of winter heating for Armenian households. Construction of the first 40 kilometer-long section of the pipeline by Iranian experts began in November 2004. The pipeline will transfer some 36 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas to Armenia over the next 20 years. The pipeline will transfer some 2.5 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas to Armenia per annum once it is completed by early 2008. A total of USD 33m has been spent on the project thus far.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020103

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

US can’t win in Iraq: General


Retired Army Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez

The man who led coalition forces in Iraq during the first year of the occupation says the United States can forget about winning the war.

“I think if we do the right things politically and economically with the right Iraqi leadership we could still salvage at least a stalemate, if you will — not a stalemate but at least stave off defeat,” retired Army Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez said in an interview. Sanchez, in his first interview since he retired last year, is the highest-ranking former military leader yet to suggest the Bush administration fell short in Iraq. “I am absolutely convinced that America has a crisis in leadership at this time,” Sanchez said after a recent speech in San Antonio, Texas.

“We’ve got to do whatever we can to help the next generation of leaders do better than we have done over the past five years, better than what this cohort of political and military leaders have done,” adding that he was “referring to our national political leadership in its entirety” — not just President George W Bush.

Sanchez called the situation in Iraq bleak and blamed it on “the abysmal performance in the early stages and the transition of sovereignty.” He included himself among those who erred in Iraq’s crucial first year after Saddam. Sanchez took command in the summer of 2003 and oversaw the occupation force amid an insurgency that has sparked a low-grade civil war in Iraq. The general was speaking out amid a bitter debate in the United States over the future of their military commitment in Iraq, where more than 140,000 GIs are battling to quell sectarian violence and defeat a violent insurgency. Their current commander, General David Petraeus, hopes this year’s so-called surge in US troop numbers will eventually tamp down the violence enough to allow Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki to kick-start a political peace process.

14 more US soldiers killed

US command reported a total of 14 more soldiers killed in action in Iraq in a series of bomb attacks and clashes with insurgent fighters over three days. In the most deadly single attack, four soldiers were killed in Baghdad yesterday when a makeshift bomb exploded as they were conducting an operation to seal off a neighbourhood and search it for enemy fighters. Bomb attacks elsewhere in the war-torn capital accounted for two more soldiers yesterday and two on Saturday, while similar incidents and ambushes outside Baghdad saw six more deaths. The latest fatalities brought the number of US servicemen to have died in combat and from other causes in Iraq to 3,488.

Source: http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Dis...7060421830.xml