Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

WarTard on Israel-Iran!

In truth, Israeli right wingers are getting extra twitchy.

The Palestinians have finally realized they cannot win their war with Israel militarily. So they've gotten smart and changed tactics. They're now aiming for a political and moral victory. And that's a war right wing politicians in Israel can't send the mighty IDF to win. In fact, it's a war the Israelis think they might lose. Especially when they themselves score major PR failures like the raid on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmera which seriously pissed off the rest of the world and especially Turkey, a major NATO power in the region. In truth, the Israeli right cannot get what it wants (more land and settlements) through peace and negotiation.

So it might soon be time to grab the popcorn folks.

If Israel attacks Iran's nuke sites it'll be because they want to provoke an Iranian response in their own backyard that'll allow them to finally settle their Lebensraum and 'illegal' settlement problem once and for all. Since the pesky Persians have no air force capable of conducting a reciprocal strike, they'll have to rely on their asymmetrical forces. And Iran sure has plenty of these. The Iranians basically have a proxy army right next door to Israel in Southern Lebanon and as soon as this war goes live (if it ever does and hopefully not), you can expect Hezbollah, the al-Aqsa martyr brigades, al-Qassam and all the other Iranian funded proxies to launch everything they've got at Tel Aviv.
This will be the open invitation Israel needs to finally take the gloves off and do what they've been itching to do since the IDF got its nose bloodied by Shia heavy infantry in Lebanon in 2006. The forces there are no joke either. Entrenched and well equipped with rocket artillery, mainly consisting of 122mm Katyushas (range 30km), they also have Syrian made BM-21s, Iranian Arash and maybe 100 Fajr-5 (range Tel Aviv) and also a nice spectrum of modern anti tank weapons including the RPG-32, (the Israelis lost 30 of their supposedly invincible Merkeva tanks to them in 2006). This pesky Iranian proxy army next door is not going to be defeated unless the Israeli military goes total war on their asses. And a war with Iran will be all the justification they need to get the ball rolling.

The Israeli right wants more territory and they are not going to get it by entering peaceful negotiations with the Palestinians. That strategy is for wimps. All that more peace talks will buy is some good Israeli PR in the minds of a foreign public with the collective memory of a goldfish. And that's worth jack xxxx in the regional power play and won't deliver the needed real estate. A walled in Palestinian state will only be desirable to the Israelis after they've chopped it all up into small manageable chunks linked by roads and water supplies they control. That annexation isn't complete yet. And with the way the Palestinian question is playing on the world stage right now, the Israelis are seeing problems brewing with their ongoing annexation policy. They're also nervous about fighting a growing demographic time bomb at home where Israeli Arabs and Palestinians are xxxxing like jack rabbits creating a voting bloc which could skew things away from the distinctly xxxish state they've been expanding since 1948.

http://wartard.blogspot.com/2011/11/why-israel-wants-to-attack-iran.html

China's shift today over Syria is also intresting and Russia's closer alignment with China is a mistake.

International pressure on Bashar al-Assad ratcheted up on Monday, as Jordan’s King Abdullah became the first Arab leader to call on the Syrian leader to step down, and China joined calls for Damascus to end its violent crackdown.

The moves followed the Arab League’s decision at the weekend to suspend Syria’s membership of the grouping, and attacks by pro-government demonstrators on diplomatic missions in Damascus belonging to Turkey, France and Saudi Arabia.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04a64040-0...#axzz1djPAzHvW

[londontsi]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I couldn't stop LOL.

The king is half English with English education and outlook.
Trained and prepared to be a puppet of the west.
Basically a sleeper in political sence in the Arab world.

His job description is "a despot".
Calling another despot to quit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15719808

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Israeli-Iranian war of words!

Israeli defense minister calls for actions against Iran

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday called for actions against Iran to stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons, saying "the time had come."

However, he declined to say directly whether his country would attack Iran, noted "I don't think that that is a subject for public discussion."

"But I can tell you that the IAEA report has a sobering impact on many in the world leaders, as well as the publics, and people understand that the time had come," he told the CNN TV network in an interview.

He was referring to the report released on Nov. 8 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which outlined alleged activities pointing to clandestine nuclear bombs making by Iran, prompting the U.S. and some European nations to mull expanded sanctions on the Middle East country.

Days before the release of the IAEA report, Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Barak were seeking cabinet support for a military strike on Iran.

Barak said IAEA head Yukiya Amano "told straightly what he found," making Iran's nuclear program "a major issue for sanctions, for intensive diplomacy, with urgency."

"People understand now that Iran is determined to reach nuclear weapons. No other possible or conceivable explanation for what they have been actually doing. And that should be stopped," he said.

Barak alleged that a nuclear Iran would turn the whole region nuclear, including regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, as well as triggering the risk of letting nuclear materials fall in the hands of terrorists.

"Let me tell you, we recommend for a long time to all players to act sincerely and intensively to ...deprive them or prevent them from turning nuclear," he said. "And we have kept recommending to all to leave no option, not to remove any option from the table."

"We mean it. We take it upon ourselves. We expect it from others the same way," he added.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/21/c_122309411.htm

Iran Threatens US With ‘Crushing’ Retaliation – OpEd

An Iranian military commander warned the United States on Saturday that Iran will retaliate if the United States attacks it, according to a report by the official Iranian Republic News Agency.

“The U.S. dares not attack Iran because in case (sic) it does so it will face a crushing response and be bitterly punished,” said Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commanding officer of the aerospace division of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corp (IRGC).

The general made his threat the day after Iran started the initial stage of an aerial war game in the eastern part of the Islamic country.

The current military exercise is focusing on Iran’s offensive tactics, the public relations office of the Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Base said in a press statement.

Domestically manufactured missile, radar and defense systems will be tested during the military maneuvers, the news agency said without further elaboration.

“The United States undoubtedly failed in its attempts to refer Tehran’s nuclear case to the UNSC as Russia and China immediately objected the motion and the Non-Aligned Movement voiced its support for the Islamic Republic’s peaceful atomic activities,” said Mohammad Karami-Rad, a member of Iran’s Majlis (parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.

Karami-Rad made his remarks after the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted Friday a resolution on Iran’s disputed nuclear program.

“The United States must realize that it cannot isolate Iran by issuing numerous resolutions,” the Iranian lawmaker was quoted as saying.

Iranian officials also said Saturday that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution adopted a day earlier will not stop the country’s nuclear program.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/2011201...aliation-oped/

[KanadaHye]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Israeli-Iranian war of words!

All bark, no bite!

[Mos]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I see Israel continuing covert sabotage, it will be similar to Cold War maybe. No one wants a huge war.

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

France is now proposing a European embargo on Iranian oil and whilst China dominates Iran's trade. The European Union is the second largest importer of Iranian oil after China.

Oil prices rise over Iran boycott fears

By Jack Farchy and Javier Blas

Oil markets were jolted by the return of political risk on Thursday amid growing calls within Europe for a boycott of Iranian crude.

The price of ICE January Brent oil, the global benchmark, rose 62 cents a barrel to $107.64 in thin trading conditions as US traders were away for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Iran is the world’s third-largest oil exporter and a founding member of the Opec oil cartel. Any escalation of tensions there could have an electric effect on oil markets, traders believe.

On Thursday, France said it had proposed a European embargo on imports of Iranian oil. The move follows a long-awaited report from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency saying that Iran had carried out work for developing a nuclear weapon and may still be doing so.

The escalation of rhetoric towards Iran has supported prices in recent weeks, competing with the increasingly gloomy economic outlook as the main driver of oil prices. Beyond its significance as an exporter, Iran exerts a grip over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the gateway for Middle East oil through which a third of all seaborne traded oil passes.

Last year Iran exported roughly 2.2m barrels a day, mostly to China, Europe, India and South Korea. The US, the world’s largest oil importer, does not buy crude from Tehran due to the sanctions that Washington imposed on the country two decades ago following the Islamic revolution of 1979 and the take over of its embassy in Tehran.

As a group, the European Union is the second largest importer of Iranian oil, buying an average of 450,000 b/d in the first half of the year, only behind the 543,000 b/d of China, and ahead of Japan and India, the third and fourth largest buyers, respectively.

France was the third largest importer of Iranian oil in Europe in the first six months of the year, behind Italy and Spain. France imported an average of 49,000 b/d from January to June, compared with 183,000 b/d for Italy and 137,000 b/d for Spain.

Iranian oil net exports amounted last year to about $73bn, equal to about half of Iran’s government revenues, according to estimates by the US Department of Energy.
...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00648f16-1...#axzz1ecGG4Xcv

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Their has seemingly been another mysterious accident in Iran this time at Isfahan.

Iran: explosion in Isfahan reported

Widely conflicting reports emerge of apparent explosion in the north-east of Isfahan near where nuclear facilities are located

Conflicting reports have emerged from Iran over an explosion heard in the central city of Isfahan, close to the country's sensitive nuclear facilities.

Iran's semi-official Isna news agency quoted a judiciary official in Isfahan, saying that an explosion had been heard.

"We heard a sound similar to that of an explosion but we have received no reports about its causes and the consequences so far," said Gholamreza Ansari, in quotes carried by Isna. He said the explosion did not appear to be of any significance.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency was one of the first media organisations to report the explosion, saying it was heard at 2.40pm local time (1110 GMT). Fars quoted the deputy governor, Mehdi Ismaili, as confirming a sound that the news agency reported was loud enough to be heard across the city. The agency, however, removed the article from its website sometime later.

Ismaili then spoke to another semi-official agency, Mehr, denying his quotes as reported by Fars. "I have heard no sound whatsoever in Isfahan," he said. Ismaili also told the Irna state news agency that he had not spoken to Fars in the first place.

Several residents of Isfahan told the Guardian that they had heard a loud blast. One said that it rattled the windows of their home.

Isfahan is home to Iran's uranium conversion facility (UCF), which operates under IAEA surveillance. Iran's main uranium enrichment facilities are situated in the city of Natanz to the north-east of Isfahan, where many of the country's centrifuges are installed. In recent years, Iran's nuclear activities at Natanz have been at the centre of an international dispute.

Earlier this month, a huge explosion at a missile base in the west of Tehran killed more than 30 members of Iran's revolutionary guards, including Major General Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, a senior commander described as the architect of the country's missile programme.

In recent years, Iran's nuclear and missile programmes have experienced a series of setbacks in what has been widely seen as a covert war against the Islamic republic.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...?newsfeed=true

[arakeretzig]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

mossad is very busy now, and rockets raining on north of israel is no coincidence. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

mossad is very busy now, and rockets raining on north of israel is no coincidence. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Israel might want a war with Iran. However I very much doubt the west is all that keen on the idea.

The latest is that the British embassy in Tehran has just been stormed by "protestors" and they are livid.

Protesters in the Iranian capital, Tehran, have broken into the UK embassy compound during an anti-British demonstration, reports say.

Militant students are said to have removed the British flag, burnt it and replaced it with Iran's flag. State TV showed youths smashing embassy windows. The move comes after Iran resolved to reduce ties following the UK's decision to impose further sanctions on it.

The UK's Foreign Office said it was "outraged" by the actions.

It urged Iran to honour international commitments to protect diplomatic missions and their staff. The students clashed with anti-riot police and chanted "the embassy of Britain should be taken over" and "death to England", AP reports. Students were reported to be ransacking offices inside the building, and one protester was said to be waving a framed picture of Queen Elizabeth II. Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency said documents from the embassy had been seized and set alight. Embassy staff fled by the back door, the agency added.

Outside the embassy's walls, several hundred other demonstrators were gathered. Live TV footage showed Iranian riot police gradually clearing the protesters away from outside the embassy. An unconfirmed report from the official Irna news agency said a separate group of protesters broke into another British embassy compound in the north of the city and seized "classified documents".

The UK Foreign Office condemned the attack and urged Iran to restore order. "We are outraged by this. It is utterly unacceptable," the statement said. "The Iranian government have a clear duty to protect diplomats and embassies in their country and we expect them to act urgently to bring the situation under control and ensure the safety of our staff and security of our property".

Last week the US, UK and Canada announced new measures targeting Iran over its controversial nuclear plans. For its part, the UK Treasury imposed sanctions on Iranian banks, accusing them of facilitating the country's nuclear programme

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15936213

[retro]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

This protest has clearly been orchestrated by the regime and you have to wonder quite what Tehran has to gain from this nonsense. The US of course hasn't had an embassy in Tehran since the 1979 hostage crisis.

IRANIAN protesters have re-entered the British embassy compound in Tehran, shortly after police chased out a group of more than 20 demonstrators who had stormed the mission. The protesters back inside are scattering papers taken from the embassy and setting them on fire, witnesses said.

Police fired tear gas at the protesters inside the embassy grounds to disperse them overnight, the Fars news agency reported. It added that several protesters had been injured, one critically, as had several officers. Tehran police chief General Hossein Sajadi-Nia was at the scene, ordering the protesters to end their action.

Meanwhile, Britain's Foreign Office is urging its citizens in Iran to "stay indoors" and "keep a low profile" after protesters stormed Britain's embassy and another diplomatic compound. Senior British officials have spoken to the Iranian charge d'affaires in London "to urge the Iranian authorities to act with utmost urgency to ensure the situation is brought under control", a spokesman said.

The incursion was part of a bigger demonstration called to express anger at new British sanctions against Iran's financial sector imposed over Tehran's controversial nuclear program. The demonstration came a day after Iran passed a law to expel the British ambassador within the next two weeks in retaliation for new British sanctions that cut off all ties with Iran's financial sector.
....

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/bre...-1226209743188