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Friends, foes, friendly foes and hostile partners
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
BURAK BEKDIL
It’s a wonderful thing that the IFF (identify friend or foe) systems guiding rockets and bombs on Turkish fighter aircraft are completely independent of how the majority of Turks would program them. Imagine the complexity about Turkish pilots firing at U.S., British or Russian aircraft, saluting any jet from countries to Turkey’s east, and both firing at and saluting U.S., Syrian and German warplanes. Bizarre? It’s just how the Turks see their friends and foes.
A recent public opinion poll carried out by the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, has revealed that the United States still tops the list of “threats” despite the “Obama pop star effect.” Israel made quite a jump on the threat list, now ranking second with the approval of 22.64 percent of Turks, from around 10 percent five years earlier. We may call this the “Davos effect.” The third threat is now France (12.09 percent in 2009 vs. 2.5 percent in 2004), and that may be called the “Sarkozy effect.”
The usual foes – Armenia, Greece and Russia – come right after the top three from the politically western hemisphere. The five threats in the top 10 are EU member states (France, Greece, Britain, Cyprus and Germany). Possibly to add some humor to the boring list of countries posing a threat to Turkey, the Turks also cited Denmark (11th) and Belgium (14th). Those may be called the “Roj TV plus Prophet Mohammed cartoons effect” and the “Fehriye Erdal effect,” respectively.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero-problem-with-our-neighbors” optimism has apparently found a smaller echo on public perceptions of threat. Turks view five out of seven of their territorial neighbors (Greece, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria) as a threat to their country – the lucky two are Bulgaria and Georgia.
If we consider the two geopolitical/naval neighbors, Russia and (Greek) Cyprus “neighbors,” then the composition of friends vs. foes around our country becomes a stressful seven out of nine. Similarly, Turks do not share a border with the 11 countries on their 14 most friendly countries list. That may be the “Ottoman effect” and tells us that our foreign minister must further refine his peace-with-all-neighbors doctrine.
Our best friend is Azerbaijan. And nobody should be surprised about that, especially because the Azerbaijanis generously agreed to sell us natural gas at $2 per cubic meter and became the second country in the world to recognize Turkish Cyprus. That may be the “one-nation-two-states effect.”
The list of top 14 friendly countries includes 10 from the “Orient” (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Syria, Kazakhstan, the Turkish Cyprus, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and South Korea) and that must be the “Western effect.” Only two EU countries proudly found a place on the top 14 list, but they come at the very bottom (Italy 13th, and Germany 14th). Combine that with another finding of the survey, that 56 percent of Turks see their country’s future in the EU, then the gist of EU membership becomes more clear: the “euros-in-my-pocket” effect.
Interestingly the Turks view Turkish Cypriots and Japanese almost as equally friendly (5.82 percent for Turkish Cyprus, and 5.64 percent for Japan). We may think this is too mean for the Turkish Cypriots or too generous for the Japanese, or both. A Turkish Cypriot may complain: “Oh, the Turks of the Mainland love us only as little as they do the Japanese”; or the Japanese may cheer up and think: “How lovely, the Turks love us as much as their brothers!”
The top two threats to Turkey, according to Turks, are also the top two threats to world peace: the United States and Israel. Then we see Russia, sixth biggest threat to Turkey, as third biggest threat to world peace, and France as fourth, followed by an intellectual answer: “the Afghan problem.” Then we see three other countries from the threat to Turkey list as global threats: Britain, Iraq and Greece. Greece as threat to world peace? Don’t laugh. That must be the “school textbooks effect.” But intellectualism reappears at the bottom of the list: China, the Palestinian problem and North Korea.
You may have noticed by now. The Turks view the United States as the top threat to both their own country and to world peace and also as a friend. I am quite short of words to tell what effect this might be. But the United States is not the only country with which the Turks apparently have a love-and-hate relationship with. The other friendly countries that also pose a threat to Turkey are Germany and Syria.
There would not have been more complexity if the pollsters had not asked Turks which countries would rush to their aide if Turkey faced war or a natural disaster. The top three saviors, respectively, are the United States (again!), Azerbaijan and Japan. The list goes on with the Turkic republics, Pakistan, Islamic countries, Germany, Iran, Greece, Italy, Britain, Syria, Turkmenistan (tautologically, a Turkic country), France, Russia, Israel, South Korea and India.
Now what should we make out of this? In a matter of life and death the Turks would hope help more than all the others from what they view as the top threat to both their country and to the world peace. Nice. That may be the “strategic value effect.”
But what about this: Turks would also pin hopes on help from eight countries on their top threat list: Germany, Iran, Britain, Syria, France (France!), Russia and Israel (but one minute!). That’s even nicer! Meanwhile, one country they only remember when it comes to help is India, which they cite neither as friendly nor as foe or a threat to world peace.
I am not sure if all these findings would fall into the jurisdiction of political scientists or sociologists or psychiatrists or a big joint committee with members from all three disciplines, but we may just call it the “media effect.”
Source
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
BURAK BEKDIL
It’s a wonderful thing that the IFF (identify friend or foe) systems guiding rockets and bombs on Turkish fighter aircraft are completely independent of how the majority of Turks would program them. Imagine the complexity about Turkish pilots firing at U.S., British or Russian aircraft, saluting any jet from countries to Turkey’s east, and both firing at and saluting U.S., Syrian and German warplanes. Bizarre? It’s just how the Turks see their friends and foes.
A recent public opinion poll carried out by the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, has revealed that the United States still tops the list of “threats” despite the “Obama pop star effect.” Israel made quite a jump on the threat list, now ranking second with the approval of 22.64 percent of Turks, from around 10 percent five years earlier. We may call this the “Davos effect.” The third threat is now France (12.09 percent in 2009 vs. 2.5 percent in 2004), and that may be called the “Sarkozy effect.”
The usual foes – Armenia, Greece and Russia – come right after the top three from the politically western hemisphere. The five threats in the top 10 are EU member states (France, Greece, Britain, Cyprus and Germany). Possibly to add some humor to the boring list of countries posing a threat to Turkey, the Turks also cited Denmark (11th) and Belgium (14th). Those may be called the “Roj TV plus Prophet Mohammed cartoons effect” and the “Fehriye Erdal effect,” respectively.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero-problem-with-our-neighbors” optimism has apparently found a smaller echo on public perceptions of threat. Turks view five out of seven of their territorial neighbors (Greece, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria) as a threat to their country – the lucky two are Bulgaria and Georgia.
If we consider the two geopolitical/naval neighbors, Russia and (Greek) Cyprus “neighbors,” then the composition of friends vs. foes around our country becomes a stressful seven out of nine. Similarly, Turks do not share a border with the 11 countries on their 14 most friendly countries list. That may be the “Ottoman effect” and tells us that our foreign minister must further refine his peace-with-all-neighbors doctrine.
Our best friend is Azerbaijan. And nobody should be surprised about that, especially because the Azerbaijanis generously agreed to sell us natural gas at $2 per cubic meter and became the second country in the world to recognize Turkish Cyprus. That may be the “one-nation-two-states effect.”
The list of top 14 friendly countries includes 10 from the “Orient” (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Syria, Kazakhstan, the Turkish Cyprus, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and South Korea) and that must be the “Western effect.” Only two EU countries proudly found a place on the top 14 list, but they come at the very bottom (Italy 13th, and Germany 14th). Combine that with another finding of the survey, that 56 percent of Turks see their country’s future in the EU, then the gist of EU membership becomes more clear: the “euros-in-my-pocket” effect.
Interestingly the Turks view Turkish Cypriots and Japanese almost as equally friendly (5.82 percent for Turkish Cyprus, and 5.64 percent for Japan). We may think this is too mean for the Turkish Cypriots or too generous for the Japanese, or both. A Turkish Cypriot may complain: “Oh, the Turks of the Mainland love us only as little as they do the Japanese”; or the Japanese may cheer up and think: “How lovely, the Turks love us as much as their brothers!”
The top two threats to Turkey, according to Turks, are also the top two threats to world peace: the United States and Israel. Then we see Russia, sixth biggest threat to Turkey, as third biggest threat to world peace, and France as fourth, followed by an intellectual answer: “the Afghan problem.” Then we see three other countries from the threat to Turkey list as global threats: Britain, Iraq and Greece. Greece as threat to world peace? Don’t laugh. That must be the “school textbooks effect.” But intellectualism reappears at the bottom of the list: China, the Palestinian problem and North Korea.
You may have noticed by now. The Turks view the United States as the top threat to both their own country and to world peace and also as a friend. I am quite short of words to tell what effect this might be. But the United States is not the only country with which the Turks apparently have a love-and-hate relationship with. The other friendly countries that also pose a threat to Turkey are Germany and Syria.
There would not have been more complexity if the pollsters had not asked Turks which countries would rush to their aide if Turkey faced war or a natural disaster. The top three saviors, respectively, are the United States (again!), Azerbaijan and Japan. The list goes on with the Turkic republics, Pakistan, Islamic countries, Germany, Iran, Greece, Italy, Britain, Syria, Turkmenistan (tautologically, a Turkic country), France, Russia, Israel, South Korea and India.
Now what should we make out of this? In a matter of life and death the Turks would hope help more than all the others from what they view as the top threat to both their country and to the world peace. Nice. That may be the “strategic value effect.”
But what about this: Turks would also pin hopes on help from eight countries on their top threat list: Germany, Iran, Britain, Syria, France (France!), Russia and Israel (but one minute!). That’s even nicer! Meanwhile, one country they only remember when it comes to help is India, which they cite neither as friendly nor as foe or a threat to world peace.
I am not sure if all these findings would fall into the jurisdiction of political scientists or sociologists or psychiatrists or a big joint committee with members from all three disciplines, but we may just call it the “media effect.”
Source
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