Armenia's Economic Pulse

[Tigranakert]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

“Lakeside resorts. Masis, Sis and New Armenia” project to be launched in RA
May 31, 2010 - 17:36 AMT 12:36 GMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - “Lakeside resorts. Masis, Sis and New Armenia” $500-million project will be launched in RA, head of the Armenian Development Agency Robert Harutyunyan said.

The tourist facilities will be located 15km north of Yerevan, nearby Ashtarak and Abovyan highways. The project also envisages reconstruction of Yeghvard reservoir, what will cost around $70 million. At that, investors are supposed to get some 30% benefit.

Funds will be attracted with the assistance of The Innovation Capital.

http://www.newarmeniaresort.com/

[Tigranakert]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Building complex to be constructed instead of Yerevan’s Youth Palace
May 25, 2010 - 15:39 AMT 10:39 GMT




PanARMENIAN.Net - Kiyokazu Arai, Arai Architects company director, was announced International Architectural Concepts Competition winner to be awarded with USD 70 thousand prize, project manager, architect Levon Vardanyan said.

As he told a news conference in Yerevan, Kiyokazu’s project features a hotel, business center and an apartment complex to be constructed at former location of Yerevan’s Youth Palace. 101-meter Intercontinental hotel will be the tallest building in the city.

“Project approval to be passed by Yerevan’s town planning committee will be followed by the launch of 3-4 year construction. Construction costs are estimated at USD 200 million,” said Eduard Avetisyan, head of Avangard Motors company, the contest initiator.

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Almost a billion dollars together, not bad!

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

You're right, there is plenty of evidence there that indicates that when an economically superior country opens borders and engages in free trade with an economically weaker country, the stronger country sees great benefits, while the weaker country just gets exploited.

It is true that on the long run heavily subsidizing exports can hurt the economy, but compared to the economy of Armenia, Turkey has a much stronger economy and can afford to subsidize exports just to exert economic pressure on Armenia. It is entirely possible that Turkey will do all in its power to hurt Armenia in every way possible. If this was about mutual benefits, Turkey would have long stopped its campaign of denial, but it hasn't. It's only naive to assume that now Turkey will somehow change it's mind and approach Armenia from a position of mutual friendship.

Furthermore, please explain how you will effectively counter subsidized goods entering the Armenian market place. Subsidizing local production will only push the Armenian economy into chaos, as it's not strong enough to compete with the Turkish economy. On the other hand, banning subsidized products from entering the economy will likely lead to the closing of the border. Either way, it's not a win-win situation.

And you ask why I ask for references when I won't read your previous posts? The reason being is that a statement "go back and read my previous posts" does not in any way provide any references by itself. If you specifically point me to a post, that would be enough, but a general statement such as yours leaves me entirely justified to write what I wrote before.

Here is all the proof/references you will need. Notice how all models predict substantial benefits to both coutries but much more benefits for Armenia then Turcky. Also notice that the biggest increse is expected to occure in the investment sector which will give Armenia a huge flow of cash in a pretty much one way direction (inwards) in regards to investment. Also notice that the Authors state that these numbers are very conservative because they only measure direct trade between Turckey and Armenia and do not factor in trade with other parties made possible by the border opening. Notice how they also make references to other countries who opened borders with enemy states and the successfull results they now enjoy. As i stated earlier there is no question at all regarding if the open border would benefit Armenia, as a matter of fact it would benefit Armenia far more then Turckey especially in the investment sector. If you look at this from a national interest point of view, it is in Armenias national interest to open the border and this explains why its government has been seeking just that. The morality question is the only thing to consider and again there are moral reasons for both opening and keeping closed the borders.

http://www.aiprg.net/UserFiles/File/Conference_Findings_Overview.pdf

[levon]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

http://www.aiprg.net/UserFiles/File/...s_Overview.pdf

Thanks for posting the article. It makes some good points, but all the estimates are based on mathematical models using data that doesn't truly represent the situation between Armenia and Turkey. Yes, theoretically, opening of the border poses great economic opportunities, there is no doubt in that; however, given the current political climate I seriously doubt that Turkey will do anything other than pursue policies that will lead to the weakening of the Armenian economy.

There is no way any mathematical model can predict what the situation might be, so the merits of the article are purely theoretical, that require at least a good political climate.

The trade barriers cannot just suddenly drop. It would need to be restricted to some point, perhaps even tariffs put in place to make sure local production is not squeezed. But that would hardly constitute free trade, and I don't think Turkey would agree to anything of that nature that gives more power to Armenia.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Actually those models do indeed use data that represents the current situation and like it says in the article these figures underestimate the benefits. I do agree that turcky is unlikely to open the border but if it did then it would be great economicaly speaking for Hayastan. I have to do a research project for this economic environment class i am taking and i am trying to think of something related to this or another Armenia related economic subject i could research and write about.

[levon]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Actually those models do indeed use data that represents the current situation and like it says in the article these figures underestimate the benefits.

I don't think so. What they use is speculation and represents a better scenario than what might happen. It also assumes that both countries are looking for economic development when looking at the issue of opening of the border. It does not address the fact that Turkey may use malicious export policies to pressure domestic Armenian production. It only mentions that more competition will force domestic production to increase in quality and efficiency, but fails to take into account the fact that if Turkey wants, it can subsidize exports to a point that competition with them will simply destroy domestic production.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

I don't think so. What they use is speculation and represents a better scenario than what might happen. It also assumes that both countries are looking for economic development when looking at the issue of opening of the border. It does not address the fact that Turkey may use malicious export policies to pressure domestic Armenian production. It only mentions that more competition will force domestic production to increase in quality and efficiency, but fails to take into account the fact that if Turkey wants, it can subsidize exports to a point that competition with them will simply destroy domestic production.

This is starting to feel like a ferris wheel. As i said befor if Turcky plays that dirty game there are ways to counter it and if that doesnt work Armenia can always close the border citing unfair trade practices. If you read it carefully you will see that the numbers they crunched up are actually understating the benefits, especialy for Hayastan. Although the economic benfit to Turcky is not as significant as it would be for Hayastan, it to will benefit in many different ways. The economic benefits to either country are not in question here, this is more of a moral issue then a real economic one.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

CHINA TO PROVIDE LOAN TO ARMENIA

Yerkir
02.06.2010 13:07
Yerevan

Yerevan (Yerkir) - An agreement on technical-economic cooperation
was signed today between the governments of Armenia and China. The
governments of the two countries also signed a letter and an address
on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Armenia and a letter and
address on behalf of the Government of the People's Republic of China.

As the press and information department of the RA Government informed,
from the Armenian side the documents were signed by Deputy Foreign
Minister Karine Ghazinyan. China's Deputy Minister for Commerce Fu
Ziying signed the documents on behalf of the Chinese Government.

According to the agreement the Government of China will provide 20
million Chinese Yuans to the Armenian Government for implementation
of technical-economic programs. According to the agreement reached
by the letter and the address, the Chinese Government has provided
88 ambulance cars to the Armenian Government.

[gegev]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Russia doesn’t let Armenia to use the Iranian cheep gas to convert it into electricity and supply it to Iran; to cover the gas cost. Russia owns the gas pipeline too and therefore it is profitable for them to supply us their expensive gas. They don't supply electricity (they own it too) to Iran therefore Iranians don't supply the gas: in our country everything is controlled by Russians, as it was under USSR. Controlling poor country is easier; they are "sma.......rt". Do we have enough patience to cope with it or we need to think about the ways of changing our political orienation radically?

Don’t forget that during his last visit Medvedev allowed Turks to built railway to Nakidjevan; that’s the only "price" we know that Russians “paid” to get the huge contracts from Turkey recently. What else Medvedev promised to Turks at Armenia’s expense?

It is high time to nationalize our major businesses to be able to promote our national interests; instead of ones of the Russians.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Have you already found out that a lot of projects are financed by the same Russians? Russia is Armenia's number one investor and we should be happy for that. Also, without Russia Armenia would not exist, ofcourse we got to try to get as much benifit as we can from certain projects, but the things are the way they are and you can not change it.

Just imagine that Russia would have treated us like Europe or America, we would be screwed big time. We must be lucky that Russians sees Armenia as an important and strategic partner/area.