Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse
..........
IMF'S SEES THE GROWTH BOOM CONTINUING IN THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA, BUT HIGHLIGHTS THE NEED FOR POLICY TIGHTENING TO DAMPEN INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
ARKA
Nov 9, 2007
YEREVAN, November 9. /ARKA/. The International Monetary Fund's October
2007 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO)
sees continued strong growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, but
highlights the need to tackle rising inflation.
David Owen, Senior Advisor in the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia
Department, presented the report's main findings for the region:
"The Caucasus and Central Asia is one of the fastest growing regions
in the world, with real GDP set to rise by an average of 13 percent
this year. Both oil and gas exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and
Turkmenistan) and non-oil exporters (Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic,
Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) are doing well.
The region's strong performance reflects improved macroeconomic
policies, reforms to improve the business environment, booming
commodity exports, and large inflows of foreign direct investment
and remittances.
However, strong foreign exchange inflows combined with the recent
surge in international food prices have resulted in a sharp uptick
in inflation in recent months, except in Armenia, Owen said.
According to him, Average annual inflation in the region increased
to over 12 percent in September and is set to go higher before the
end of the year.
Even before the shock from higher food prices, inflation was rising
steadily, as most central banks boosted domestic liquidity by
purchasing foreign currency inflows, so as to limit the appreciation
of their currencies, he said.
Policy makers in the region could not have prevented the inflationary
shock from higher food prices. But they should respond quickly
to prevent this shock from passing through into other prices more
generally.
In most countries there is room to tighten monetary policies,
by raising interest rates and reducing foreign exchange market
intervention to allow more exchange rate appreciation. Plans in
several countries to loosen fiscal policies by raising government
spending should be put on hold, Owen said.
According to him, Moderate policy tightening to dampen inflationary
pressures should allow the boom in the region to continue.
"While average growth in the region is likely to slow from this year's
rapid pace, it is projected to remain in double digits in 2008--high
enough to keep the region on a path of rising income per head and
declining poverty," the IMF states.
ARKA
Nov 9, 2007
YEREVAN, November 9. /ARKA/. The International Monetary Fund's October
2007 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO)
sees continued strong growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, but
highlights the need to tackle rising inflation.
David Owen, Senior Advisor in the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia
Department, presented the report's main findings for the region:
"The Caucasus and Central Asia is one of the fastest growing regions
in the world, with real GDP set to rise by an average of 13 percent
this year. Both oil and gas exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and
Turkmenistan) and non-oil exporters (Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic,
Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) are doing well.
The region's strong performance reflects improved macroeconomic
policies, reforms to improve the business environment, booming
commodity exports, and large inflows of foreign direct investment
and remittances.
However, strong foreign exchange inflows combined with the recent
surge in international food prices have resulted in a sharp uptick
in inflation in recent months, except in Armenia, Owen said.
According to him, Average annual inflation in the region increased
to over 12 percent in September and is set to go higher before the
end of the year.
Even before the shock from higher food prices, inflation was rising
steadily, as most central banks boosted domestic liquidity by
purchasing foreign currency inflows, so as to limit the appreciation
of their currencies, he said.
Policy makers in the region could not have prevented the inflationary
shock from higher food prices. But they should respond quickly
to prevent this shock from passing through into other prices more
generally.
In most countries there is room to tighten monetary policies,
by raising interest rates and reducing foreign exchange market
intervention to allow more exchange rate appreciation. Plans in
several countries to loosen fiscal policies by raising government
spending should be put on hold, Owen said.
According to him, Moderate policy tightening to dampen inflationary
pressures should allow the boom in the region to continue.
"While average growth in the region is likely to slow from this year's
rapid pace, it is projected to remain in double digits in 2008--high
enough to keep the region on a path of rising income per head and
declining poverty," the IMF states.
..........
THE MONETARY POLICY OF ARMENIA WITH THE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE HELPED TO AVOID THE VIOLENT GROWTH OF INFLATION, IMF STATES
Mediamax
Nov 8, 2007
Yerevan, November 8 /Mediamax/. Armenia is the only country in the
South Caucasus and Central Asia, which managed to avoid the violent
growth of inflation.
Mediamax reports that this is stated in the IMF report "Economy
development prospects in the region of the Middle East and Central
Asia".
The document notes that the Caucasus and Central Asia belong to the
number of regions with high speed of economic growth. In the course
of the recent three years, it was estimated by two-digit numbers and
this year it is expected to reach the average level of 13%.
The speedily growing prices for oil have positive influence
on the oil and gas exporter-states - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan. "But the things are positive in other states as well,
which have considerably less natural resources. As a result of reforms
in Armenia and Georgia, the business atmosphere improved and the
arrival of direct foreign investments accelerated", the IMF Senior
Advisor of the Department of Middle East and Central Asia states
David Owen said.
At the same time, he stressed, there is tenseness showing up, related
to the resumption of the growth of inflation.
"Having decreased approximately from 15% in late 1990s to 5-7% by
2004, the average yearly speed of inflation in the region at present
is again estimated by a two-digit number. Under the influence of the
latest external shock, caused by the rapidly growing international
prices for foodstuffs, the average speed of inflation in September
exceeded 12% and, most likely, will still increase by the end of
the year. But even before this shock, the inflation was steadily
increasing. It was stirred up by the stable demand and the growing
liquidity, and the central banks in most of the states increased the
offers of national currency for the purchase of the inflowing foreign
currency to limit the consolidation of the rate of their currencies.
Exception is Armenia, the monetary policy of which with a flexible
exchange rate helped to preserve the inflation at about 5%", David
Owen noted.
Mediamax
Nov 8, 2007
Yerevan, November 8 /Mediamax/. Armenia is the only country in the
South Caucasus and Central Asia, which managed to avoid the violent
growth of inflation.
Mediamax reports that this is stated in the IMF report "Economy
development prospects in the region of the Middle East and Central
Asia".
The document notes that the Caucasus and Central Asia belong to the
number of regions with high speed of economic growth. In the course
of the recent three years, it was estimated by two-digit numbers and
this year it is expected to reach the average level of 13%.
The speedily growing prices for oil have positive influence
on the oil and gas exporter-states - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan. "But the things are positive in other states as well,
which have considerably less natural resources. As a result of reforms
in Armenia and Georgia, the business atmosphere improved and the
arrival of direct foreign investments accelerated", the IMF Senior
Advisor of the Department of Middle East and Central Asia states
David Owen said.
At the same time, he stressed, there is tenseness showing up, related
to the resumption of the growth of inflation.
"Having decreased approximately from 15% in late 1990s to 5-7% by
2004, the average yearly speed of inflation in the region at present
is again estimated by a two-digit number. Under the influence of the
latest external shock, caused by the rapidly growing international
prices for foodstuffs, the average speed of inflation in September
exceeded 12% and, most likely, will still increase by the end of
the year. But even before this shock, the inflation was steadily
increasing. It was stirred up by the stable demand and the growing
liquidity, and the central banks in most of the states increased the
offers of national currency for the purchase of the inflowing foreign
currency to limit the consolidation of the rate of their currencies.
Exception is Armenia, the monetary policy of which with a flexible
exchange rate helped to preserve the inflation at about 5%", David
Owen noted.
Comment