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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
Uzeir Jafarov: Today Azerbaijani army is ready to liberate its lands
Thu 26 November 2009 | 08:35 GMT Text size:
Uzeir Jafarov
News.Az interview with military expert Uzeir Jafarov.
Before the Munich round of talks with his Armenian counterpart, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated the possibility of a new war to resolve the conflict. Do you think Azerbaijan is ready for such a way to settle the problem?
This is a power of a president to make such statements as a supreme commander, as person who is responsible for the territorial integrity and security of the country. I perceive it calmly and normally considering the fact that the negotiation process over Karabakh has been ineffective for long years. Armenia attempts to protract the conflict settlement and when it comes to agree on some important moments, Armenian side makes up some reasons or sets some impracticable provisions. I consider that the Azerbaijani side should put stiff demands before the OSCE Minsk Group and the Armenian side that if the negotiation process is not effective, we have a moral and legal right to use the forced way of the conflict settlement. Our army is not the same as it was in the 1990s. Today Azerbaijan has human and material resources to ensure its territorial integrity.
How do you assess the state of the Armenian army?
It would be incorrect to say that Armenia has no army at all because it knows that it is an aggressor and the time of revenge will come when Azerbaijan will be able to use the forced way of this problem settlement. Therefore, Armenia takes this into account. It understands that the Azerbaijani army can settle this issue by any way. We are really able to settle this issue. I am among those who criticize some problems and shortcomings in our army, but I think today our army is able to settle most issues. But we should not forget that the Armenian army also does not stay idle. They have their plans to resist attacks. We have never had real hostilities. We should take into account all moments before taking a decision to launch hostilities. Such powerful country as the United States faced no special problems in invading Iraq. But it has been bearing losses every day since that period. Or such powerful country as Russia also cannot settle the problem related to the so-called illegal armed formations in the North Caucasus. Therefore, we should not forget that the Armenian side also has powers even insignificant. They have legal and illegal armament and technique. It is no accident that the Armenian leadership and military command have recently held a session with the military command of the so-called “NKR”. The officers have many problems and they face great social difficulties. Meanwhile, the Armenian state budget for 2010 envisions a great amount – about $100 – 200 mln. This is too high for the Armenian budget. Armenian officers understand that if not for the so-called “Karabakh army”, these funds could have been used to improve social conditions of the Armenian officers.
Considering the fact that the Russian military base is dislocated in Armenia, is it possible to say that it may be involved into the conflict?
Russia will not risk the way it did in the early 1990s when the 366th division led by cut-throat Yuri Zarvigorov committed massacres against residents of Azerbaijani Khojaly. We should not forget that the 102nd military base dislocated in Gumri is 70% comprised of the Armenian ethnic that are the citizens of Russia. Anyway, they are of Armenian origin but they may take even an indirect participation in case hostilities are launched. But I can also say that the key to solution of the Karabakh problem is in Russia. Considering the fact that Russia always viewed Armenia as its closest ally and strategic partner and these countries sign documents of military and political and military and technical nature, perhaps, Russia will support Armenia in any way. Our occupied lands would be released in a week if Russia orders so. Armenia has no power and will to hold our native lands under occupation for so much time.
How much time will the full liberation of lands take in case Azerbaijan decides to liberate its lands by way of force, attaining Russia’s guarantees of non-interference?
I don’t want to call terms. But I would like to note that our human and material resources are sufficient to liberate our lands within a definite period of time. We do not claim for a centimeter of someone’s land. We need to restore our territorial integrity. This right is fixed in four resolutions of the UN Security Council. We have a legal and moral right to restore our territorial integrity. Certainly, we should not forget Russia’s factor, it will hardly stay aside in case military actions are launched. But Russia should also not forget about international law according to which the territorial integrity should be respected.
In the same statement President Aliyev said the contact line of the armed forces is weakening from the Armenian side in the light of the mass migration of population from this country. Will this factor give real advantages to the Azerbaijani side?
In 2001 we, as part of a group of international journalists from the OSCE, visited Armenia and spoke to simple Armenians at Yerevan’s streets and, frankly speaking, native Armenians have no special intentions about Karabakh. They openly resent over the fact that Armenia is now led by Karabakh natives and people who came to power due to the Karabakh war. They understand that time will come to revenge and they will have to respond before the people and the world community and, especially Azerbaijan, whose 20% lands are under occupation now. We heard from the Armenian citizens that they do not need Karabakh at all but the smeary policy of separatists and leaders and persons escalating tensions in the region played its role here. This is a business of arms, drugs, preparation of international terrorists for them. The uncontrolled areas have always been a favorable ground for development of such elements. I think serious situation is growing in Armenia. And I fear the only thing. When the settlement of the Karabakh problem was nearing a final part, there was mass shooting in the Armenian parliament. And I am afraid something similar may happen and Armenia may say it has internal problems and needs time to stabilize the situation.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
they were ready yesterday when there defense minister said the same thing, they were ready after the Munich meeting, they were ready in the 1990's, theyve been ready for over 10+ yrs
There like Chihuahuas, all they can do is bark.
---------------------------------------------------------------
And here is an azeri "expert" who says Armenia is bluffing when they said they are going to recognize Artsakh's independence. Yes we are the ones bluffing, not them, who constantly claim they are going to attack.
Today.Az » Politics » Statement's from Armenia about possible recognition of breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh are political bluff: political expert
26 November 2009 [11:25] - Today.Az
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Fikrat Sadigov.
Day.Az: The Armenian side has recently announced that it might recognize the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh as a sovereign entity. Do you think Armenia will take such a move?
Fikrat Sadigov: I think that the Armenians are bluffing. This is real political bluff aimed both at domestic audience and public of Azerbaijan. They think having heard such threats, Azerbaijani public will be frightened and wait for Armenia to recognize the separatist entity.
Of course, Armenia is scared of those statement voiced by Azerbaijani leadership about the outbreak of hostilities if the peace talks bring no results.
I think that the Armenian side is disingenuous as usual seeking to give legitimacy to an absolutely lawless processes and phenomena that occurs in our region.
Q: What consequences recognition of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh may have for Armenia?
A: I believe that even if Armenia formally declares recognition of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh, it will a pure profanation. Not only its partners and allies, but entire world community will condemn Armenia for this move.
Moreover, if Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh, this would not be great loss for Azerbaijan because Nagorno-Karabakh is occupied Azerbaijani territory in any case.
Nagorno-Karabakh has already been de facto recognized by Armenia which originally stood behind all these events and supported and supplied the separatist Karabakh both materially and politically.
Also, the president and defense minister of Armenia periodically visit the occupied territories of Azerbaijan and hold meetings there. So, there is nothing new for us in this regard. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan should not leave it unattended and should draw the appropriate conclusions on the basis of norms and principles of international law and bring these issues into discussion of world community.
Q: What response steps Azerbaijan can take if Armenia recognizes independence of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh?
A: There are four Security Council resolution which clearly state that the Armenian forces must withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories.
In the case of Armenia's recognition of independence of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry will need to raise this issue at the UN, in order to have one of the resolutions altered and have written there that the occupying party is not just Armenian armed forces, but the Armenian Republic. In addition to the fact that it does not admit it did it itself, but not through some of Armenian forces, it still ignores international documents that were once adopted and which clearly indicate the need for withdrawal of armed occupying forces from Azerbaijani territory.
Thus, the picture depicted above is not in favor of Armenia at all and will put the country in even more stupid and desperate situation.
In this case, Azerbaijan should also ask the UN General Assembly and Security Council and other European organization to convene. Azerbaijan will have to raise the issue of appropriate sanctions against Armenia as an aggressor state, which does not only fulfill earlier resolutions, plus flagrantly violates territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and ignores interests of the international community, especially those countries which are co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group.
Day.Az
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/57767.html
Uzeir Jafarov: Today Azerbaijani army is ready to liberate its lands
Thu 26 November 2009 | 08:35 GMT Text size:
Uzeir Jafarov
News.Az interview with military expert Uzeir Jafarov.
Before the Munich round of talks with his Armenian counterpart, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated the possibility of a new war to resolve the conflict. Do you think Azerbaijan is ready for such a way to settle the problem?
This is a power of a president to make such statements as a supreme commander, as person who is responsible for the territorial integrity and security of the country. I perceive it calmly and normally considering the fact that the negotiation process over Karabakh has been ineffective for long years. Armenia attempts to protract the conflict settlement and when it comes to agree on some important moments, Armenian side makes up some reasons or sets some impracticable provisions. I consider that the Azerbaijani side should put stiff demands before the OSCE Minsk Group and the Armenian side that if the negotiation process is not effective, we have a moral and legal right to use the forced way of the conflict settlement. Our army is not the same as it was in the 1990s. Today Azerbaijan has human and material resources to ensure its territorial integrity.
How do you assess the state of the Armenian army?
It would be incorrect to say that Armenia has no army at all because it knows that it is an aggressor and the time of revenge will come when Azerbaijan will be able to use the forced way of this problem settlement. Therefore, Armenia takes this into account. It understands that the Azerbaijani army can settle this issue by any way. We are really able to settle this issue. I am among those who criticize some problems and shortcomings in our army, but I think today our army is able to settle most issues. But we should not forget that the Armenian army also does not stay idle. They have their plans to resist attacks. We have never had real hostilities. We should take into account all moments before taking a decision to launch hostilities. Such powerful country as the United States faced no special problems in invading Iraq. But it has been bearing losses every day since that period. Or such powerful country as Russia also cannot settle the problem related to the so-called illegal armed formations in the North Caucasus. Therefore, we should not forget that the Armenian side also has powers even insignificant. They have legal and illegal armament and technique. It is no accident that the Armenian leadership and military command have recently held a session with the military command of the so-called “NKR”. The officers have many problems and they face great social difficulties. Meanwhile, the Armenian state budget for 2010 envisions a great amount – about $100 – 200 mln. This is too high for the Armenian budget. Armenian officers understand that if not for the so-called “Karabakh army”, these funds could have been used to improve social conditions of the Armenian officers.
Considering the fact that the Russian military base is dislocated in Armenia, is it possible to say that it may be involved into the conflict?
Russia will not risk the way it did in the early 1990s when the 366th division led by cut-throat Yuri Zarvigorov committed massacres against residents of Azerbaijani Khojaly. We should not forget that the 102nd military base dislocated in Gumri is 70% comprised of the Armenian ethnic that are the citizens of Russia. Anyway, they are of Armenian origin but they may take even an indirect participation in case hostilities are launched. But I can also say that the key to solution of the Karabakh problem is in Russia. Considering the fact that Russia always viewed Armenia as its closest ally and strategic partner and these countries sign documents of military and political and military and technical nature, perhaps, Russia will support Armenia in any way. Our occupied lands would be released in a week if Russia orders so. Armenia has no power and will to hold our native lands under occupation for so much time.
How much time will the full liberation of lands take in case Azerbaijan decides to liberate its lands by way of force, attaining Russia’s guarantees of non-interference?
I don’t want to call terms. But I would like to note that our human and material resources are sufficient to liberate our lands within a definite period of time. We do not claim for a centimeter of someone’s land. We need to restore our territorial integrity. This right is fixed in four resolutions of the UN Security Council. We have a legal and moral right to restore our territorial integrity. Certainly, we should not forget Russia’s factor, it will hardly stay aside in case military actions are launched. But Russia should also not forget about international law according to which the territorial integrity should be respected.
In the same statement President Aliyev said the contact line of the armed forces is weakening from the Armenian side in the light of the mass migration of population from this country. Will this factor give real advantages to the Azerbaijani side?
In 2001 we, as part of a group of international journalists from the OSCE, visited Armenia and spoke to simple Armenians at Yerevan’s streets and, frankly speaking, native Armenians have no special intentions about Karabakh. They openly resent over the fact that Armenia is now led by Karabakh natives and people who came to power due to the Karabakh war. They understand that time will come to revenge and they will have to respond before the people and the world community and, especially Azerbaijan, whose 20% lands are under occupation now. We heard from the Armenian citizens that they do not need Karabakh at all but the smeary policy of separatists and leaders and persons escalating tensions in the region played its role here. This is a business of arms, drugs, preparation of international terrorists for them. The uncontrolled areas have always been a favorable ground for development of such elements. I think serious situation is growing in Armenia. And I fear the only thing. When the settlement of the Karabakh problem was nearing a final part, there was mass shooting in the Armenian parliament. And I am afraid something similar may happen and Armenia may say it has internal problems and needs time to stabilize the situation.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
they were ready yesterday when there defense minister said the same thing, they were ready after the Munich meeting, they were ready in the 1990's, theyve been ready for over 10+ yrs
There like Chihuahuas, all they can do is bark.
---------------------------------------------------------------
And here is an azeri "expert" who says Armenia is bluffing when they said they are going to recognize Artsakh's independence. Yes we are the ones bluffing, not them, who constantly claim they are going to attack.
Today.Az » Politics » Statement's from Armenia about possible recognition of breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh are political bluff: political expert
26 November 2009 [11:25] - Today.Az
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Fikrat Sadigov.
Day.Az: The Armenian side has recently announced that it might recognize the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh as a sovereign entity. Do you think Armenia will take such a move?
Fikrat Sadigov: I think that the Armenians are bluffing. This is real political bluff aimed both at domestic audience and public of Azerbaijan. They think having heard such threats, Azerbaijani public will be frightened and wait for Armenia to recognize the separatist entity.
Of course, Armenia is scared of those statement voiced by Azerbaijani leadership about the outbreak of hostilities if the peace talks bring no results.
I think that the Armenian side is disingenuous as usual seeking to give legitimacy to an absolutely lawless processes and phenomena that occurs in our region.
Q: What consequences recognition of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh may have for Armenia?
A: I believe that even if Armenia formally declares recognition of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh, it will a pure profanation. Not only its partners and allies, but entire world community will condemn Armenia for this move.
Moreover, if Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh, this would not be great loss for Azerbaijan because Nagorno-Karabakh is occupied Azerbaijani territory in any case.
Nagorno-Karabakh has already been de facto recognized by Armenia which originally stood behind all these events and supported and supplied the separatist Karabakh both materially and politically.
Also, the president and defense minister of Armenia periodically visit the occupied territories of Azerbaijan and hold meetings there. So, there is nothing new for us in this regard. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan should not leave it unattended and should draw the appropriate conclusions on the basis of norms and principles of international law and bring these issues into discussion of world community.
Q: What response steps Azerbaijan can take if Armenia recognizes independence of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh?
A: There are four Security Council resolution which clearly state that the Armenian forces must withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories.
In the case of Armenia's recognition of independence of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry will need to raise this issue at the UN, in order to have one of the resolutions altered and have written there that the occupying party is not just Armenian armed forces, but the Armenian Republic. In addition to the fact that it does not admit it did it itself, but not through some of Armenian forces, it still ignores international documents that were once adopted and which clearly indicate the need for withdrawal of armed occupying forces from Azerbaijani territory.
Thus, the picture depicted above is not in favor of Armenia at all and will put the country in even more stupid and desperate situation.
In this case, Azerbaijan should also ask the UN General Assembly and Security Council and other European organization to convene. Azerbaijan will have to raise the issue of appropriate sanctions against Armenia as an aggressor state, which does not only fulfill earlier resolutions, plus flagrantly violates territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and ignores interests of the international community, especially those countries which are co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group.
Day.Az
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/57767.html
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