Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

How they treated Karen before they killed him. And Aliyev called us barbarians...

Armenian women in the army

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Has there been any confirmation from this ?detainee's? Armenian village? Does not look Hayr to me.
The poor mentally challenged fella that wandered across the border that was TORTURED (common turc practice) --- WAS 77 YEARS OLD & MENTALLY CHALENGED ---.
What Armenian would cross the line of contact and go to a baboon dwelling and try to bum a smoke and tea?
Turcee propaganda at its finest.
Moron is an appropriate discription of these hominoids.
Also --- HEARTLESS ---

The detainee who has either died or been murdered in Azeri captivity was Armenian and from a local village. It appears he was drunk and wandering around. The Azeris threw a flak jacker on him, boots, and some other Azeri gear (and it was indeed Azeri issue as can be seen from the photos) to make him look like a soldier, which he clearly was not. The initial report from the Azeris was that he was part of a reconnaissance/sabotage team and that 4 Armenians were killed. Needless to day he was not part of any military operation. Just a local drunk with mental problems in a drunken stupor. If he was part of a sabotage team and the Azeris did kill 4 of his mates as they reported, where are their bodies of the 4? And just how did they escape when they were dead?

If anything, this shows how porous the border is in that section, in terms of both Armenian and Azeri defenses, that a drunk civilian should be able to saunter through the lines so easily. It's probably better for him that he is dead now- that prevents him further torture, being paraded around, or traded for future Azeri detainees.

Armenian forces need to tighten the border.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The detainee who has either died or been murdered in Azeri captivity was Armenian and from a local village. It appears he was drunk and wandering around. The Azeris threw a flak jacker on him, boots, and some other Azeri gear (and it was indeed Azeri issue as can be seen from the photos) to make him look like a soldier, which he clearly was not. The initial report from the Azeris was that he was part of a reconnaissance/sabotage team and that 4 Armenians were killed. Needless to day he was not part of any military operation. Just a local drunk with mental problems in a drunken stupor. If he was part of a sabotage team and the Azeris did kill 4 of his mates as they reported, where are their bodies of the 4? And just how did they escape when they were dead?

If anything, this shows how porous the border is in that section, in terms of both Armenian and Azeri defenses, that a drunk civilian should be able to saunter through the lines so easily. It's probably better for him that he is dead now- that prevents him further torture, being paraded around, or traded for future Azeri detainees.

Armenian forces need to tighten the border.

Yes there is room for rethink.

Large notices ( High profile) on the approaches to these areas as well as local militias/guards even if unarmed
since the President does not like the idea of arming the locals.

.

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Again i got suspended for infractions in militaryphotos site .... the reason ?

Dear Crichton,

You have received an infraction at Military Photos.

Reason: Posted an image that is not work safe.
-------
NSFW and also hotlinked image, both of these things break forum rules.



Have in mind in that site daily there are posted horrible pictures of dead people and numerous other pictures .... real reason is that i Chrichton user namedslammed stupid turks with actual evidence of their own idiocy. http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...-killed/page15


In the past 4 accounts of my got banned !!
Anyways i hope the turk ass kissers moderators in that site have a taste of friendship with those barbarians .

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Anyways i hope the turk ass kissers moderators in that site have a taste of friendship with those barbarians .

It's a pro western/joo/turk forum. If you want to last there, you need to calm yourself and not get emotional. The turk members know how to play the game, and touch on the right nerves. So be smart about it next time.


more on topic: Anyone remember how it was on the tavush border before? i mean between 1995 and 2010? Did people wander off into baboonstan? It seems it's becoming more frequent, and more interestingly, why don't azeris wander off into Armenia?

PS to mods: how come "j e w" is a bad word here?

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It's a pro western/joo/turk forum. If you want to last there, you need to calm yourself and not get emotional. The turk members know how to play the game, and touch on the right nerves. So be smart about it next time.


more on topic: Anyone remember how it was on the tavush border before? i mean between 1995 and 2010? Did people wander off into baboonstan? It seems it's becoming more frequent, and more interestingly, why don't azeris wander off into Armenia?

PS to mods: how come "j e w" is a bad word here?

The thing is i was calm and i didnt used any language ..he " digrar " found the only reason to suspend me ( 10 days ) just cause my photos had linked to armenian news site !!!!!
More than that he considers it not work safe ....u tell me now !!

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian SF. Parachute training

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Commission for POWs, Hostages and Missing Persons made a statement on Armenian captive Karen Petrosyan’s death in Azerbaijan.

“On August 8, 2014, the Delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to Armenia officially confirmed Azerbaijani authorities’ reports on the death of Armenian citizen Karen Petrosyan, who has been held captive in Azerbaijan since August 7.

“Resident of the Chinari village, Tavush region, Armenia, Karen Petrosyan, for yet unknown reasons, crossed the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and was taken captive in Azerbaijan. Despite various comments by Azerbaijani authorities, Armenia’s Ministry of Defense officially stated that Karen Petrosyan is not a serviceman of Armenia’s Armed Forces. According to Karen Petrosyan’s relatives and his medical documents, he had no health problems, much less any cardiovascular disease, and was actually healthy.

“Not satisfied with obviously inhuman treatment of the captive Armenian citizen, the Azerbaijani side humiliated and tortured Karen Petrosyan to death. Evidence thereof is videos and photos circulated by Azerbaijani media.

“Considering the above, Karen Petrosyan’s sudden death for unknown reasons suggests he suffered inhuman and cruel treatment, which is a gross violation of the human rights and fundamental freedoms incorporated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Therefore, the Commission for POWs, Hostages and Missing Persons officially demands a forensic examination of Karen Petrosyan’s body by independent international experts to identify the cause of death.

“Commission for POWs, Hostages and Missing Persons of Armenia calls on the relevant international bodies to be consistent in ensuring an impartial and comprehensive investigation of the case.”

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/08/08/geriner24/

Karen Petrosyan, the resident of Tavush who died a day after being held captive in Azerbaijan, is believed to have been intentionally murdered.

Speaking to Tert.am, political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan and opposition MP Tevan Poghosyan said they do not believe in the earlier reports that the man died suddenly.

Petrosyan, 31, was held in Azerbaijan’s Aghbulad village on Thursday. Citing Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry, Haqin.az reported earlier today that he died of an acute cardio-vascular disorder.

Melik-Shahnazaryan said he is sure that the Azerbaijani side is trying in this way to provoke Armenia into killing their saboteurs who were held in Karvachar last month.

“I am sure Karen Petrosyan was killed. And he was killed for very important reasons: firstly because the circulating legend that he is a saboteur is untrue. And seeing that the legend is impossible to bring to life, Azerbaijan decided to as soon as possible erase the gaps. So they deprived him of life. The reason why Azerbaijan can take similar actions is because they have saboteurs held here. Apparently, Baku realizes perfectly what information they possess and about what level of people. So by killing our villager they are kind of trying to provoke the Armenian side into doing the same, hoping that they may thus lull an important piece information source into silence,” he noted.

The analyst said he sees that Baku now tries, to the best of its efforts, to revitalize the war operations over Karabakh by escalating the situation.

“So naturally, acts of the kind contribute to the development of that scenario,” he added.

In 2010, Manvel Saribekyan, a 20-year-old resident of Tortor (Tavush region), died in a prison cell in Baku months after being held captive in the country for crossing the border from Armenia. Both suicide and an intentional act of murder are thought to be possible causes of his demise.

In an interview with an Azerbaijani TV channel before the tragic incident, Saribekyan “confessed to being a spy and a terrorist.”

Mamikon Khojoyan, another resident of Tavush held hostage in Azerbaijan last year, was returned to Armenia thanks to the ICRC’s mediation efforts. But he died months later, reportedly of bodily damages suffered while in captivity. Traces of torture were found on his body post-mortem.

Commenting on the latest incident, Poghosyan described it as an act of violence provoked by the enemy. “Azerbaijan is always our enemy with its typical handwriting. It is important for us to realize that they do no respect any international law for civilians,” he noted.

Edgar Vardanyan, an expert from the Armenian National Center of National and International Studies, said he believes that Azerbaijan seeks to psychologically pressure Armenia by such a behavior. “I can say only one thing: that Azerbaijan wishes to exert pressure on the Armenian society. Activities of the kind fall within their logic,” he noted.

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/08/08/karen-petrosian/

Good read !

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.rferl.org/content/caucasus-report-karabakh-war-dance/26521123.html

Fighting In Nagorno-Karabakh: War Or War Dance?

August 08, 2014

On August 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet separately in Sochi with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to discuss the recent upsurge in hostilities in the vicinity of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh that has reportedly left at least 20 dead.

That fighting, according to Armenian military spokesmen, has taken the form of repeated small-scale Azerbaijani attacks interspersed with occasional retaliatory operations by the Armenians. Baku for its part says the Armenian side has consistently been the aggressor, which seems implausible insofar as Armenia, in contrast to Azerbaijan, has nothing to gain and a great deal to lose from unleashing, or even taking steps that could trigger, a new full-scale war.

Even though the recent clashes are the most serious since the signing of a cease-fire 20 years ago, however, most Armenian observers doubt that they presage all-out war.

The May 1994 cease-fire agreement left the Defense Army of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in control of seven neighboring districts of Azerbaijan it had wrested control of from a shambolic and poorly-trained Azerbaijani Army over the previous two years. All efforts by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group, created in 1992 to mediate a peaceful diplomatic solution to the conflict, have foundered over the time frame for and logistics of the return of those districts to the control of the Azerbaijani government, and what the government and people of Nagorno-Karabakh would receive in return for relinquishing its only bargaining chip.

The most recent blueprint for conflict resolution, the so-called Basic or Madrid Principles, envisages the return of six occupied districts plus special modalities for the seventh, the so-called Lachin Corridor that serves as the sole overland link between Nagorno-Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia. In return, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh vis-a-vis the central Azerbaijani government would be decided in a "manifestation of popular will" (the original formulation specified a referendum) at some unspecified future date.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has used the proceeds from the exploitation of its Caspian oil and natural-gas reserves to build up and reequip its armed forces with the aim of launching a new war to win back control over Nagorno-Karabakh if/when negotiations are deemed to have failed absolutely. That said, Azerbaijani officials' frequently vaunted boast that the country's $3 billion defense budget exceeds the entire budget of the Republic of Armenia is misleading in that much of the weaponry it has acquired is intended for the defense of its offshore oil and gas installations.

Over the past three years, however, the military, diplomatic and geopolitical situation has changed, partly on Baku's initiative, and seemingly to its advantage. As of the summer of 2011, the Azerbaijani Army has launched ever more frequent raids and attempts to penetrate the Line of Contact east of the de facto border between Nagorno-Karabakh and the rest of Azerbaijan and that separates the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces. The objective of those probes is presumably to test the enemy's combat readiness and identify weak points in the Armenian defenses.

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At the same time, Azerbaijan has stepped up its deployment of snipers along the Line of Contact, and consistently rejected successive appeals by Minsk Group co-chairmen to withdraw them, in contrast to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which have publicly expressed willingness to do so provided Azerbaijan reciprocates.

On the diplomatic front, following the failure of Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, to reach a widely anticipated interim peace agreement during talks in Kazan in June 2011, Baku has upped the ante by implicitly pegging a resumption of the process of hammering out differences over the Basic/Madrid Principles to Armenia's implementation of one of those principles, namely the immediate return of the seven occupied districts to Azerbaijani control.

That gambit has effectively deadlocked the peace process, even though it has not put an end to the tireless efforts of the Minsk Group to induce the conflict sides to reach a compromise.

The chances of doing so are minimal, however, in light of the difference of opinion between the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh leaderships over what constitutes an acceptable solution to the conflict. Writing on Facebook in late July, Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto prime minister, Ara Harutiunian, reportedly rejected as "unacceptable to us" the requirement that the seven occupied districts contiguous to the disputed region be returned to Azerbaijani control. Harutiunian said those districts were vital to the republic's continued economic development.

That intransigence places Armenia in a difficult position insofar as President Sarkisian (who himself was born and brought up in Nagorno-Karabakh) has said repeatedly that Armenia will never sign a peace agreement that is unacceptable to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku Seeing Its Chance?

Three factors may have contributed, singly or in combination, to the recent escalation of fighting.

The first, as U.S. Minsk Group co-Chairman James Warlick has pointed out, is that the international community is already facing two major crises, in Ukraine and the Middle East, that require its undivided attention. This may have emboldened Azerbaijan.

The second is that in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea and the threat it is perceived to pose to Ukraine and the Baltics, the search for alternative supplies of natural gas to Western Europe has become more urgent. Azerbaijan, by virtue of the agreement it signed in June 2012 with Turkey on construction of the TANAP pipeline to export gas from its offshore Shah Deniz field, could at least partially fulfil that need, albeit not until 2018-19.

It is therefore not inconceivable that the Azerbaijani leadership has advanced, or is preparing to advance, the argument that in light of its increasing strategic importance as a source of energy, its international partners should either (figuratively) bludgeon Yerevan into agreeing to a Karabakh peace deal on Baku's terms, or turn a blind eye should it launch a new war with the aim of restoring its control over the break-away region.


The third is the appointment in October 2013 of former interior-troops commander Zakir Hasanov to succeed veteran Azerbaijani Defense Minister Colonel General Safar Abiyev. Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army commander Lieutenant General Movses Hakobian opined earlier this week that Hasanov may have initiated the recent offensive with the twin aims of putting his stamp on military tactics and pressuring Armenia to make concessions in the peace process.

At the same time, Hakobian said that despite its acquisition of state-of-the-art weaponry, the Azerbaijani armed forces are no match for their Armenian counterparts. Armenian Defense Minister Seiran Ohanian (who lost a leg in the fighting of the early 1990s) similarly told journalists this week that "we need to bear in mind that any weapon requires a person qualified enough to use it.... The acquisition of large quantities of weapons requires their personnel to learn how to use them effectively."

Even some Azerbaijani experts have cast doubts on official Azerbaijani accounts of the nature of the fighting and the Armenian death toll. Military analyst Uzeir Jafarov was quoted by ANS Press as questioning how the Armenians as the attacking side incurred fewer casualties, given that "under the laws of war, the attacking side usually sustains more casualties." He said the Azerbaijani military command was guilty of "a serious tactical error."

Assuming that Azerbaijan has indeed merely been engaging in muscle-flexing intended to intimidate, rather than preparing for a major offensive, it may have played into Moscow's hands if, as many Armenians suspect, Putin intends to take advantage of the upsurge in tensions to "offer" to deploy peacekeeping force in the conflict zone. (Ohanian has affirmed unequivocally that third-party peacekeepers are not necessary.) The deployment of Russian peacekeepers would not only preserve indefinitely the current situation of "not peace but not war," it would also preclude the use of much of the battlefield weaponry Azerbaijan has purchased from Russia in recent years at considerable expense.

-- Liz Fuller

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://rt.com/op-edge/179052-south-caucasus-conflict-azerbaijan/

A not so ‘frozen’ conflict in the South Caucasus


As the world is preoccupied with the events unfolding in Gaza and eastern Ukraine, another zone of conflict has flared up in the South Caucasus.

The military attacks of the Azerbaijani army intensified in mid-July straining the status quo on the Line of Contact (LoC) between Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabkah Republic) and Azerbaijan as well as along the Azerbaijan-Armenia border.

Between July 28 and August 2, five Artsakhi and twenty-five Azerbaijani soldiers were killed as a result of these actions. The numbers of dead are higher than all of last year’s deaths.

While both states were quick to blame one another, the fact remains that only Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated its intentions to restart the war in order to conquer Artsakh and force its freedom loving people to live under the Ilham Aliyev tyrannical regime. Only Azerbaijan has consistently portrayed Armenians as the evil ‘other,’ and only Azerbaijan has regularly refused to ease tensions on the LoC via confidence building measures such as removing snipers, or at the very least agreeing not to fire upon civilians farming near the border regions.

The high numbers of casualties among Azerbaijani soldiers suggest that they are the attacking side. Moreover, a defending side cannot leave armaments and equipment on the other side’s territory.

The Azerbaijani policy of firing at the peaceful population living in Armenian border villages, as well as medical vehicles with the symbol of the International Red Cross, cynically violates core humanitarian principles, affirmed in the Geneva Conventions. Baku also sponsors and utilizes human resources to conduct sabotage and subversive acts within Armenia and Artsakh.

Azerbaijan Border guards marching down a Baku street.(RIA Novosti/Vladimir Vyatkin)Azerbaijan Border guards marching down a Baku street.(RIA Novosti/Vladimir Vyatkin)

Such a move could accelerate the growth of terrorism in Azerbaijan, where the irrational facets of the hatred culture serve as a basis for the development of a pathological cruelty that is at the root of terrorism. Stemming from low socio-economic conditions and homelessness in many regions of the country, Azerbaijanis are an easy target for recruiters of terrorist and radical extremist groups.

Experience shows that there is an active link between terrorist attacks and a conflict zone, with the latter serving as a fertile soil for conducting such attacks. The large number of Azerbaijani nationals engaged in terrorist activities in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and recently Iraq, alongside the Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS) reaffirms this notion.

The recent inhuman behavior by Azerbaijani saboteurs as part of an intelligence-diversion activity in Artsakh’s Shahumyan district, resulted in the callous killing of a 17 year old Armenian. This is yet another example of the kill-mania of Aliyev’s regime and the terroristic essence of the Azerbaijani party. An earlier expression of this was the hero’s welcome given to Azerbaijani officer and convicted axe murderer, Ramil Safarov, who, during a NATO training seminar, hacked to death a sleeping soldier with an axe solely because he was Armenian.

Encouraging further aggression
Meanwhile, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmen states (US, France, Russia) were quick to resort to their usual script of telling all sides to respect the ceasefire, refrain from violence, and look for a peaceful political solution.


What this policy of false parity generates is a sense of impunity for the Azerbaijani regime to continue to raise tensions, threaten war, and stigmatize Armenians in the eyes of their citizens, in other words, the exact opposite of what the Co-chairmen states desire.

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship also lacks (thus should be granted) a mandate to conduct investigations of incidents in the conflict zone, and requires more resources to prevent and condemn such aggressive acts.

Additionally, the so-called Madrid principles of conflict settlement proposed by the mediators, which have been serving as a factor ensuring relative stability in the region, are much more unrealistic in light of Azerbaijani behavior both internally and externally.

The recent spate of attacks coincides with Baku’s crackdown on civil society and democracy activists. Most recently Arif and Leyla Yunus, and Rasul Jafarov were arrested on trumped up charges of tax evasion and treason.

Official Baku aims to channel the unhappiness of its citizens away from its inept and corrupt rule toward the external enemy by escalating tensions against Armenia and Artsakh. Other than mild criticism from the OSCE, and the US State Department, no pressure has been brought to bear on Aliyev’s regime for its increased authoritarianism.

The reasons are obvious enough: the West needs Azerbaijan as part of its wider plan to weaken Russia’s stranglehold on energy supplies to the EU, and fears that any criticism will drive Aliyev to seek a partnership with Russia instead.

The planned withdrawal from Afghanistan also requires Azerbaijani support, since some NATO equipment will require transit through Azerbaijan.

Moreover, since the West knows it has no chance of prying Armenia away from its alliance with Russia, it is not willing to expend much if any of its political capital to force Azerbaijan to behave.

After all, the West prefers Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbons to anything Armenia may have to offer them.

The aforementioned resulted in the inclusion of Azerbaijan along with several other countries in a new US Senate bill called the “Russian Aggression Prevention Act” aimed at “preventing further Russian aggression toward Ukraine and other sovereign states in Europe and Eurasia, and for other purposes.”

If enacted, the bill authorizes “substantial increase of military-to-military interactions of the US armed forces including specifically increasing the current tempo of military exercises and training efforts and exchanges with such armed forces” as well as “strengthening existing, bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation agreements including agreements related to cyber defense cooperation.” The irony here is that the bill would encourage Azerbaijan to continue its aggressive policies, since it is the most militarized and warmongering party in the region, and the primary obstacle to the creation of regional security architecture.

From the other side, Russia, which is preoccupied with its internal economic situation due to Western sanctions, and the civil war in Ukraine, might be loath to see another conflict flare up so close to its borders. Although there is a possibility of the Kremlin stimulating these tensions in order to find a pretext to station its ‘peacekeepers’ in the area, officials in Yerevan and Stepanakert have repeatedly and categorically eschewed such a prospect.

Hence, at the end of this week, Sargsyan and Aliyev will meet Putin in Sochi. Although Moscow aims to control a region of its so-called “exclusive zone of interests” with only one meeting, nothing of substance for conflict resolution will come out of the Sochi talks.

However, President Sargsyan must use the occasion to bring up the topic of Azerbaijan’s militarization with a strong notice of criticism toward Russia’s willingness to sell billions of dollars in armaments to Baku, and how this is directly contributing to a rise in bloodshed. Therefore Sargsyan ought to press for a halt in sales of weaponry to Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless, tensions will remain high along the LoC with further escalations and incidents initiated by the Azerbaijani side. If things continue as they have, it is only a matter of time before one side miscalculates, likely Azerbaijan, and ignites a new round of war.

A military parade in Yerevan on Independence Day: Paratroopers on the march. (RIA Novosti)A military parade in Yerevan on Independence Day: Paratroopers on the march. (RIA Novosti)

Even if a rational war is not predicted, an adventurous one is likely. The situation could get out of hand as a result of misinformation stimulating policymakers within the Baku regime to remain belligerent and escalate the conflict.

Due to the effective and accurate policy of Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, which is releasing cautionary statements, holding meetings with foreign military attachés, ambassadors, and providing up-to-date information on the developments along the LoC, an appropriate information environment has been set for an Armenian counter-attack. Thus, if Azerbaijan continues to keep tensions high, the Armenian military response would be intense and unexpected.

In any scenario the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen states, and other interested actors, such as the UK will bear as much responsibility as the instigating party. One cannot arm the aggressor on the one hand and expect peace on the other.

Vahan Dilanyan and Vilen Khlgatyan for RT

Dr. Vahan Dilanyan is a recognized expert on regional security and conflict resolution. He serves as the Chairman of the Political Developments Research Center (PDRC), a think-tank based in Yerevan.

Vilen Khlgatyan specializes in integrated strategy and national security with an emphasis in the geopolitics of energy. He is the Vice Chairman of the PDRC.