Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Alieve might be restarting the war as he sees his oil revenue dry up and needs to deflect attention away from the economic problems his people are going to be facing. The increase of violence has been rising over a sustained period of time with them testing and looking for weaknesses in our defense. Unless oil prices go back up I suspect we may have a war on our hands soon.

http://forum.hyeclub.com/showthread.php/20455-Energy-in-Azerbaijan/page7?p=355468#post355468

War costs more money than no war.

Where will the money come from, who will pay.

.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://forum.hyeclub.com/showthread....468#post355468

War costs more money than no war.

Where will the money come from, who will pay.

.

The ruling family has more then enough money which they stole from their country. They already have the weapons and the fuel they need for war. If the family decides to stay in that country it will launch a war to create a scapegoat. If the war goes well then the ruler is a hero and his hold on power is not questionable..if the war goes badly then the ruler and his family can run away to any one of their palaces they have bought abroad. What makes this situation more complex is the involvement of powerful foreign powers in this region with conflicting interests.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Russian MiG-29s of the 3624th Air Base Erebuni, Yerevan, Armenia

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Alieve might be restarting the war as he sees his oil revenue dry up and needs to deflect attention away from the economic problems his people are going to be facing. The increase of violence has been rising over a sustained period of time with them testing and looking for weaknesses in our defense. Unless oil prices go back up I suspect we may have a war on our hands soon.

Ya I mean first the attacks back in August and helicopter attacks and now them applying mortars on daily bases is just scary and worrisome,we would need a strong comeback at them when the timing is right but for now I guess we can't since Russia wouldnt be reliable ally at the moments since they are u suffocating under all the western sanctions

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

londontsi what I am saying is that cost is irrelevant here. Alieve has the money, the weapons, the manpower.. This is about staying in power. If there is no war and the situation deteriorates then he is to blame and his hold on power is at risk. If he starts a war he can blame everything on us and is much less likely to lose power.
Argin the sanctions have zero effect on Russia's ability to wage war. The issue is that Russia does not want the azeris to be its enemies.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Though I agree they have the means for war, I don't think they are desperate enough yet to start it. They still have some funds in the sovereign wealth fund, whatever the amount, to stay afloat for a while with cheap oil. With that said, I can't understand what all these aggressive moves could mean if not an excuse to spark war. If war starts, I don't see them doing much given the terrain, our military hardware, and our preparedness. It can't lead to anything but a stalemate and a few hundred kids dead.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Though I agree they have the means for war, I don't think they are desperate enough yet to start it. They still have some funds in the sovereign wealth fund, whatever the amount, to stay afloat for a while with cheap oil. With that said, I can't understand what all these aggressive moves could mean if not an excuse to spark war. If war starts, I don't see them doing much given the terrain, our military hardware, and our preparedness. It can't lead to anything but a stalemate and a few hundred kids dead.

Yes Mher I do not think that restarting a war will give them much territory but the azeris are in a very complicated situation and are being pulled in many different directions. Iran, Israel, Turkey, Russia, ISIS...all have levers here and interests. I do not believe Kharabag means as much to them as it does to us (a big reason why they wont win) and I believe their leader is simply using the conflict as a tool to stay in power. This tool gives him the reason he needs to muzzle independent media and opposition parties. It also gives him a useful scapegoat to hide mistakes, incompetence, theft.. Leaders often use war to justify or strengthen their hold on power and this situation is no different.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

We been talking about this for while......what you think, $45 Barrel will set him off?

[Ak105]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

When do you guys think the war is starting? I think 2015 is the year...

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Though I agree they have the means for war, I don't think they are desperate enough yet to start it. They still have some funds in the sovereign wealth fund, whatever the amount, to stay afloat for a while with cheap oil. With that said, I can't understand what all these aggressive moves could mean if not an excuse to spark war. If war starts, I don't see them doing much given the terrain, our military hardware, and our preparedness. It can't lead to anything but a stalemate and a few hundred kids dead.

Azerbaijani actions are the result of external political pressure.
If you remember the warning by James Walrick that if Azerbaijani government(aliev's clan) did not implement political reforms to bring it to western stile democracy and human rights guarantees, a maidan like revolt could start in Baku. That is strong. Very strong. The western (US led) criticisms and pressure on aliev is mounting. Lately there is not a week passing without some kind of US official criticism of baku. This all and Kiev maidan prospects must be freaking baku.
The importence is not the end result of war, which is very doubtfull for baku, but the threats of possible war and ensuing chaos in caucasus that baku can excert on minsk group and influence US and Russian approach to aliev's regime in case it starts loosing controll. And it seems that aliev is feeling some slipping of controlls from his hands. There is public discontent that can be used by outside powers which is very dangerous.
Oil revenues could be only a factor in complicating things, but there is not a special price level that will prompt a war. With less money, ruling party feels less safe. But that is not the biggest factor.
The biggest factor is big power's struggles in caucasus and eastern Europe.
Russia is deep in crizis with west and baku needs a jolt to bring Moscow's attention to ruling clan's protection in baku.
War could be started if cyvil unrest starts and gets out of controll.
Otherwise, Aliev must be the biggest fool to start war now, when he still has most of power under controll.
One thing very important. Baku has full confidence that we will not start a war no matter how hot the frontline is, or how many ceasfire violations azeris commit. The most we might do is local positional grabs and generally will turn to Misnk mediators for restoring the peace. Our policies of avoiding full scale war do play into aliev's hand in giving him boldness in using war treats in bringing bigger political dividents from abroad.
I still cannot decide, why is US treating Baku so nagatively now? Could it be that it's a double game? By criticising aliev, Washington looks as if worried for democracy and peace, but actually pushes increasingly desperate aliev to more warmongering.
War in caucasus will damage Russia the most, next to Armenia and Azerbaijan, who will suffer the most.
It could also be that a war can be used to replace Aliev's clan with a more western oriented regime.