Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
If Russia's behavior (or silence) is fishy for us, it must be fishier for Azeris, since selling them weapons is against Russia's own commitments with Armenia. Several occasions Russian officials declared that Russia is ready to protect it's ally Armenia in case of need. That leaves turkey out. It must be worrisome for Baku to play in bear's arms.
Russia's move in Syria so far has not been met with serious western resistance. Nobody will guarantee of any restraint for Russia in Armenian/ Azery war.
So Azeris must also think that this could also be a trap by Russia. Get Baku start a war and then choke it to submission by our help.
At one point, worsening of relations with west is very damaging for Baku.
Unless, they have guarantees from Russia. But who has had any from them?
The cards are in Russia's hands.
If Baku starts a war, there is more of a chance it won't be the one to finish it. And it might not be in their liking.
I don't think that Russia will give up an ace card like Artsakh to anybody any time soon. It will need it for a long time.
just a theory, nothing more.
Artsakh is the reason why Russia has Armenia as an ally and Azerbaijan buying Russian weapons and playing friend, when it could buy western better weapons.
If peacekeepers are stationed there, both of this countries can have and be forced into much larger diplomatic potentials that will involve west.
Right now it's in Russia's sole advantage.
Originally posted by gokorik
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If Russia's behavior (or silence) is fishy for us, it must be fishier for Azeris, since selling them weapons is against Russia's own commitments with Armenia. Several occasions Russian officials declared that Russia is ready to protect it's ally Armenia in case of need. That leaves turkey out. It must be worrisome for Baku to play in bear's arms.
Russia's move in Syria so far has not been met with serious western resistance. Nobody will guarantee of any restraint for Russia in Armenian/ Azery war.
So Azeris must also think that this could also be a trap by Russia. Get Baku start a war and then choke it to submission by our help.
At one point, worsening of relations with west is very damaging for Baku.
Unless, they have guarantees from Russia. But who has had any from them?
The cards are in Russia's hands.
If Baku starts a war, there is more of a chance it won't be the one to finish it. And it might not be in their liking.
I don't think that Russia will give up an ace card like Artsakh to anybody any time soon. It will need it for a long time.
just a theory, nothing more.
Artsakh is the reason why Russia has Armenia as an ally and Azerbaijan buying Russian weapons and playing friend, when it could buy western better weapons.
If peacekeepers are stationed there, both of this countries can have and be forced into much larger diplomatic potentials that will involve west.
Right now it's in Russia's sole advantage.
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