Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I implied sabotage during a war ( that would not be considered as terrorism ) as a retaliation target. I also suggested use of artillery for denial of access.

The question you wanna ask yourself is that do you want to win a war or do you just want to hurt Azerbaijan anyway you can without thinking of consequences. You also must consider that most of the pipeline is buried under ground (for this exact reason, are you gonna start digging?) and setting explosives on the pumping stations (two in Azerbaijan) will only stop the flow for a limited time. It will get repaired no matter what. I am not saying that the BTC is not a good target but you must consider all options and weight in the benefits vs the complications. We can't make that decision since we don't have all the facts like our leaders do.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Turks can be very cunning...........they have excuse for anything and they are masters of passing the buck. If there was a trophy for that they would win it.
However many do agree with you that Turkey will not risk such a move unless they have a very good reason. NKR attacking their immediate interests might give them that leverage, but again political fall out for them will be great. It is interesting to note that Aliyev has asked Turkey to open military bases in Azerbaijan and Georgia has approved such a move. Will Turkey do this or can they convince the Russians and the West that such a move will guarantee protection of their interests I don’t know.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/politics/news/6571/

I actually don't see Russia allowing a new player to the Caucasian playing field, especially after 2008. It only would mean that Russia would lose power and do you see Russia agreeing to something that would cause them to become weaker?

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I actually don't see Russia allowing a new player to the Caucasian playing field, especially after 2008. It only would mean that Russia would lose power and do you see Russia agreeing to something that would cause them to become weaker?

To answer your question Karo I would say no, of course not but one thing I have learned is that when it comes to Russia, you never know what they are going to do and what Turks are up to behind our back when working with Russia, just sayin you know. It is not like Armenia has too many choices and they know it.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

To answer your question Karo I would say no, of course not but one thing I have learned is that when it comes to Russia, you never know what they are going to do and what Turks are up to behind our back when working with Russia, just sayin you know. It is not like Armenia has too many choices and they know it.

Let's follow this idea, so Russia needs to give it's permission for Turkey to establish a base in Azerbaijan. Let's look at the situation today, the only sphere that Russia and Turkey are friendly is in business. If we look at every aspect they are almost enemies, belonging to different camps. So for Russia to allow Turkey built a base, Turkey needs to change. Turkey needs to abandon the West and become a Russian ally.

The west has invested huge amounts of money and other things in Turkey, I don't think they will be happy with this betrayal. And the US will lose major ally in this situation. And the US doesn't like that, so US can replace Russia in the situation I've described. I for one don't see any other way for Russia to allow a NATO member built a base in it's backyard.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Let's follow this idea, so Russia needs to give it's permission for Turkey to establish a base in Azerbaijan. Let's look at the situation today, the only sphere that Russia and Turkey are friendly is in business. If we look at every aspect they are almost enemies, belonging to different camps. So for Russia to allow Turkey built a base, Turkey needs to change. Turkey needs to abandon the West and become a Russian ally.

The west has invested huge amounts of money and other things in Turkey, I don't think they will be happy with this betrayal. And the US will lose major ally in this situation. And the US doesn't like that, so US can replace Russia in the situation I've described. I for one don't see any other way for Russia to allow a NATO member built a base in it's backyard.

You nailed it. Turkey could make that changes and if we follow the politics we will see that Turk have just about given up on the EU membership and they are starting to think that this NATO alliance is holding them back and causing tensions with Russia. They assess that it is Turkey that will pay the price of US interferences in the region once they leave (NATO ships in black sea and so forth). Turkey is very dependent of Russia for energy. They get something like 70 percent from Russia and 30 percent from Iran on gas consumption. Their latest vote against sanctions on Iran is proof of their discontent and their lack of desire to mend relations with Israel and Washington. This doesn’t mean that Turkey will turn against the West but if they were to pull out of NATO they will win big favors from Russia. With Erdogan in power this could be a possibility.
This would be an example where Russia will cooperate with Turkey on their regional problems and Armenia could be side tracked. Also one must consider that Iran and Russia have mutual interests in their sphere of influence so it gets even more complicated. Throw in crazy Georgian leader who wants WWIII and Azerbaboonis blowing the battle trumpets and anyone can see what kind of a pickle we are in. Russia didn't hesitate to cut us off when they invaded Georgia did they.

I think it might be a safe assumption to make that neither Russia nor Turkey would want to see a stronger, more independent Armenia for their own different reasons.
Of course these are all speculations in my part.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You nailed it. Turkey could make that changes and if we follow the politics we will see that Turk have just about given up on the EU membership and they are starting to think that this NATO alliance is holding them back and causing tensions with Russia. They assess that it is Turkey that will pay the price of US interferences in the region once they leave (NATO ships in black sea and so forth). Turkey is very dependent of Russia for energy. They get something like 70 percent from Russia and 30 percent from Iran on gas consumption. Their latest vote against sanctions on Iran is proof of their discontent and their lack of desire to mend relations with Israel and Washington. This doesn’t mean that Turkey will turn against the West but if they were to pull out of NATO they will win big favors from Russia. With Erdogan in power this could be a possibility.
This would be an example where Russia will cooperate with Turkey on their regional problems and Armenia could be side tracked. Also one must consider that Iran and Russia have mutual interests in their sphere of influence so it gets even more complicated. Throw in crazy Georgian leader who wants WWIII and Azerbaboonis blowing the battle trumpets and anyone can see what kind of a pickle we are in. Russia didn't hesitate to cut us off when they invaded Georgia did they.

I think it might be a safe assumption to make that neither Russia nor Turkey would want to see a stronger, more independent Armenia for their own different reasons.
Of course these are all speculations in my part.

Armenia is very far from being strong and independent. The threat of it becoming so to Russia is nonexistent. The Azeris pose a much bigger threat in this regard then Armenia does for Russia. The existence of Armenia as the wedge in panturkism is far more valuable to Russia then any oil and gas revenue it can hope to gain from the Azeris.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

S-300 air defence missiles deployed in Abkhazia

Russia has deployed S-300 air defence missiles in Abkhazia, Georgia's former breakaway region, said a top military official.

“We have deployed the S-300 system on the territory of Abkhazia,” Air Force Commander-in-Chief General Alexander Zelin told reporters on Wednesday. “It will provide anti-aircraft defence to the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in cooperation with the air defence systems of the [Russian] army.”

The announcement came days after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Abkhazia to pledge all-round support for the country. Russia recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states two years ago in the wake of a five-day war it waged to repulse Georgia's armed attack on South Ossetia.

Georgia angrily reacted to the Russian move claiming it changed the regional balance of forces.

“The deployment of this class of air defence systems is not only aimed against Georgia, it also changes the balance of forces in the region,” said Georgia's State Minister for Reintegration Temur Yakobashvili.

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Good news, long live Abchazia and Ossetia!

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

...The existence of Armenia as the wedge in panturkism is far more valuable to Russia then any oil and gas revenue it can hope to gain from the Azeris.

That is one critical aspect where Russia and Iran are in cooperation and that is to not have Turkey expand eastward and join Azerbaijan which in turn will reduce both of their influences. Northern Iran (Tabriz) is already being infiltrated by Azeris from Azerbaijan influencing Irani Azaris and making claims on Iran’s sovereignty. Iran is well aware of this.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You nailed it. Turkey could make that changes and if we follow the politics we will see that Turk have just about given up on the EU membership and they are starting to think that this NATO alliance is holding them back and causing tensions with Russia. They assess that it is Turkey that will pay the price of US interferences in the region once they leave (NATO ships in black sea and so forth). Turkey is very dependent of Russia for energy. They get something like 70 percent from Russia and 30 percent from Iran on gas consumption. Their latest vote against sanctions on Iran is proof of their discontent and their lack of desire to mend relations with Israel and Washington. This doesn’t mean that Turkey will turn against the West but if they were to pull out of NATO they will win big favors from Russia. With Erdogan in power this could be a possibility.
This would be an example where Russia will cooperate with Turkey on their regional problems and Armenia could be side tracked. Also one must consider that Iran and Russia have mutual interests in their sphere of influence so it gets even more complicated. Throw in crazy Georgian leader who wants WWIII and Azerbaboonis blowing the battle trumpets and anyone can see what kind of a pickle we are in. Russia didn't hesitate to cut us off when they invaded Georgia did they.

I think it might be a safe assumption to make that neither Russia nor Turkey would want to see a stronger, more independent Armenia for their own different reasons.
Of course these are all speculations in my part.

I for one don't see the West and Nato laying down and take it up the rear by Russia. Caucasus is one thing but Turkey joining the Russian camp. They would bomb Turkey to the stone age before they let that happen. a true cause for a WWIII would be Turkey and Russia joining forces.

Armenia would demand Russia to leave it's territory and it would join the West that is buthurt because what Turkey has done. And they now will use every chance they get to undermine Turkey and Russia. If they don't it's a big geo-political loss for the West and NATO. And could be the end of Armenia. But to be honest, I can't see an alliance between Russia and Turkey.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I can't see that either plus Russia does not trust Turkey which appears at the time to be turning towards the Middle East but I am not yet convinced about that either.....I guess just like Russians I don't trust what they say and do either.
BTW, Israeli defense contractors still operste out of Turkey and the USA still shares intelligence with Turkey but things don't appear to be the same on the surface.