Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

it's around 1 AM in Yerevan. Any clue about the situation on the front lines?

I'm sure there's something happening. Azeris are probably sniping and lobbing shells, missiles, etc.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Would be nice but I actually think which ever side launches such large scale attacks will suffer huge losses and get bogged down- (at least in terms of the land east of the front near Hadrut/southern sector and east of Aghdam/middle sector)- though we can start to make those cities unlivable. Perhaps pressuring some of those cities east of the northern sector and north of the Mrav range might work. I have no doubt NKR forces can prevail in a large offensive but it will be costly.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Would be nice but I actually think which ever side launches such large scale attacks will suffer huge losses and get bogged down- (at least in terms of the land east of the front near Hadrut/southern sector and east of Aghdam/middle sector)- though we can start to make those cities unlivable. Perhaps pressuring some of those cities east of the northern sector and north of the Mrav range might work. I have no doubt NKR forces can prevail in a large offensive but it will be costly.

I have the same view concerning a large offensive, and yes we should make those cities unlivable.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have the same view concerning a large offensive, and yes we should make those cities unlivable.

Anything east of the Aghdam and Hardut can be taken at a high cost and also be held at high cost. It is flat, barren, and desert-like.

[Artashes]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

About Azery losses. We are comparing two different things here(wrong to do so).
Our government is transparent about our losses. Azeri government keeps it secret. That 100 Azeri dead are proved by our government. Do you guys think that it is possible to say how many Azeris lost? Not untill they publish oficially(so it's not going to happen).
What is left if to rely to estimates, military strategists guesses, our soldiers accounts and most of all bits and pieces of Intel, like Azeri phone conversations, coming from enemy. Above all it is a matter of belief.
Anybody that refuses to accept anything other than Azeri official numbers actually helps Baku in coverup and propaganda.
The real important point is what our and especially Azeri public believes. By listening to that phone conversation I could tell that some Azeris believe their dead are truckloads, hundreds and maybe thousands.
Right after our MOD spokesman wrote (very briefly,unfortunetly) 2000 Azeri killed in his facebook, their Azeri opposition took that number in severely criticizing government.
Because Azery official government keeps their dead a secret, we have a golden opportunity to declare and insist on a number (with our government and all media) that will spread more dispair and fear among Azeris. That will be great help to our army.
Now, despite believing Azery dead number around 2000, I insist that actually they lost 1000 for sure. Prove me I am wrong.
My proof is in the fact that their government keeps the info secret...


The war has already been going on. What you have after April 5 is a verbal lull agreed by our government to allow Azerbaijan to catch its breath after shock.
Now that ease to Baku was given by our diplomatic weakness and Russia's largest nfluence. But it is abvious that both Baku and Moscow have used a valuable asset that cannot be used over and over if we are smart.
Both Azerbaijan and Russia are going to have less and less room to maneuver. That guarantees intense war, but also, since our military performs brilliant so far, will give us more Political capital. If we are unified and smart.

I agree completely.
(1) we were caught by surprise, hence 3 top generals fired. The enemy made some advances at initial attack. Then we started rolling. The casualties suffered by our enemy that are beyond LoC can only be known to the enemy. We all know they are not going to tell the truth but rather hide the truth.
Cannons are usually behind front line and often hit beyond front line. As Hacob and others have pointed out, artillery is truly devastating.thats provided our (OUR) aim is accurate. Anyone dought our people's shooting accuracy ?
A hundred dead on their side is ridicules. But then is there any dought about how ridicules azer claims of virtually any sort are ? How about their claim to original ancestry of our lands ? How about their denial of being genocidal ?
Their losses that were returned by us, plus us allowing them to gather other dead while we held fire are only the close up dead, not beyond our sight, but within artillery range (easily).
Again I say ... The dead enemy is far greater (and) the wounded is emmense on their side.
Please remember, traditionally Hayr aim first and then fire. We are not spray and pray people.
Between the dead and wounded enemy, the loss is much greater than we will ever know. They (azer govt) will and is actively covering up, FOR SURE.
The azur population --- does know --- their losses.
Let us not bolster the turcic azer propaganda by agreeing with stupidly low enemy death count of only a hundred or so. That's their propaganda. Notice how they have basically copied our dead and wounded numbers.
As Hacob pointed out, artillery is devastating. Anyone know how many artillery rounds we fired ?
Again, as Hacob pointed out ... The azer turc didn't go running to russia to stop us for nothing.
They (azer turc) were getting their "clocks cleaned" and in the initial stage of panick. That's why they RAN to Russia.
The azur families know as well as hospitals. That's where we need to penetrate to find more realistic numbers. Not official azer coverup.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azeris are tweeting that there are Armenian shells falling on Terter.

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Artashes Jan, thanks for agreeing with me, and I fully agree with you except, we should not even bother what they say. We should force our belief and point of view to the world and most importantly to Azeris.
Trying to argue about scientific truth is ridiculous.
Our belief has to be most beneficial to us.
Can you imagine if at in the middle of war our government would factualise about very very large operational losses of azeris(no numbers, numbers should be pushed by us)?
Azeris were already in an animalistic panic.
But we sit down in our news media and forums and count what is correct and absolutely undeniable(irrelevant numbers) that we have proof of, and we are scientifically snd politically correct.
Our number can mislead us first of all. International community takes the most ridiculous Azeri news equal to our "honest thruth".
If there is an Azeri that has no immediate killed relative will think " our government says only 38. Even enemy says only 100. Thanks god it's not a disaster. Kill Armenians".
But a "disaster" it was for Azeris.
Why cannot we talk with them with their own language?

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

While I don’t believe the Azeris quite threw the proverbial "kitchen sink" at the NKR forces (as they held back their air assets after losing 2 choppers and did not press the attack toward Aghdam), this was a large scale/three pronged offensive in which they gained a few pieces of high ground about 150 meters from their lines ( though losing any ground to them at all sucks, ultimately their new positions are not secure there and they paid a heavy price for it)- the Azeris have shown that they are not yet capable of launching a multi-pronged and coordinated offensive. They downgraded their objectives very quickly. As we've repeated ad nauseam, this was a learning experience- NKR forces will now be more vigilant and all measures and contingencies will be accounted for.

Another offensive will likely be coming this summer.