Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army

[burjuin]

Armenian Army

[Joseph]

I think it is the apologetic approach that we have to reason with every detail. We are not the offensive expansionists and we should be bullies in our security defense.

Agree. Historical perspectives and the current reality show that the Turks and their Azeri cousins only understand and respect one language, and that is meeting their barbarity with equal parts or exponentially more forceful countermeasure- to hit them harder.

The Turkic mentality, when met with strong will, bravery, and stubborn defense is to cower. Whenever Armenians show appeasement or goodwill, the Turks/Orcs take that as a sign of weakness and too often Armenians, till this day, play into this. Yes, our so-called Western allies might appreciate Armenian's goodwill for five minutes and we may be seen as taking the higher road but it does nothing but encourage the aggressor and we stand alone in any regard. A moral victory in these days of realpolitik are meaningless.

Turks have always played a zero-sum game and always will- that is never going to change. But when you analyze Armenian history, almost every instance of Armenians fighting back or hitting first (which has unfortunately been seldom), Armenians have been victors. Again, it has happened too few times, but when Armenians make a stand or attack, even when outgunned, outnumbered, starving, etc., they ultimately win and in doing so, save Armenian lives. During the genocide, when Armenians fought, they generally turned the Turks back and survived, when they depended on Turks showing "goodwill", they died like sheep. This mentality, that of the Turkish aggressor and Armenian appeaser still survives today.

Lately, I've lost some faith in Armenian Military leadership and will to win. The April 2016 incidents were no victory for the Azeris except for Aliyev's PR machine but they showed some initial Armenian weakness and lack of vigilance coupled with some poor leadership. Recently, Monte and his brethren showed the way but the current leadership has forgotten his lessons. It seems that each day and Armenian solider is killed at the front. Armenia continues to show restraint in order to appease EU, Russia, etc but again, it only encourages the enemy and makes Armenians look weak and close to some kind of a capitulation. This has to be bad for morale. This is not a game, this is survival.

Perhaps Armenia forces are taking counter measures, but if so, it seems far too inadequate. Inaction only encourages the Azeris. In certain sectors of the NKR, Nakhichevan border, and N.E. Armenia, it seems there is a lack of coordination, preparation, strategic positioning, vigilance and fortitude. Again, Armenia inaction leads to the death or more troops, action saves the lives of our soldiers and civilians. Right now its like there is this malaise and acceptance of losing conscripts on it seems a 8:1 basis. How is this acceptable and what is being done to remedy this?

I expect we'll see more changes too, hopefully improvements.

[Sukhoi22]

Something is very wrong with our Armenian mentality that we are even considering Nakhichevan is theirs and our troops are somewhat stationed into “their” borders. The whole region all the way to Van is/was our homeland. These useless tribes of turkic and Kurdish are all the same. They all dump 10+ kids and get as close they can to our little remaining nation. We should not reason or have all these waste of time dealing with them.

Nothing is wrong from the perspective of flawed Soviet thinking.
But for me and you and others it looks really wrong.

[Azad]

Armenia continues to show restraint in order to appease EU, Russia, ...

Who cares of any international entities, specially useless liberals of EU annoyances. A good example is the UNESCO that praises azerbaijan for being a "cultural heritage protectors" after destroying all Armenian traces. They all are the same garbage. All we need is Russian arms and support while building our defense industry. Today, we are cornered in territories that's impossible for the enemy to advance (reason why we still have). Even if a major war breaks out and all their stars do lineup, the most they will be able to advance will be some of the flat lands (max 5% - trenches of Artsakh). Their objective is to keep the constant pressure of harassment on all sides. It started with North Eastern Armenia, now it is Nakhichevan. The most we do, is respond with equal harassment. Two kms on all sides of Armenia should turn to no man’s land. Anything that moves in those two kms should be obliterated. You want to visit some tombstone? You will be part of the tombstone in those two kms.

[Vahram90]

The reason of armenian restraint is not goodwill, weak mentality or the will to appease anybody but the lack of probability to win in a war. You cannot answer every provocation in the desired "adequate" way if you have to fear an even more aggressive answer of the enemy which you can't repel adequately anymore. I don't think that the current situation satisfies any Armenian but we have to admit that the handling of this problem is much more difficult than that what you guys have written. Look at the real situation of our economy, look at the real numbers of soldier conscription and then you see the concrete reason of our soft attitude towards the enemy. We have to try to keep the balance and avoid any major confrontation until our economy and demographics recover.

[Vahram90]

But when you analyze Armenian history, almost every instance of Armenians fighting back or hitting first (which has unfortunately been seldom), Armenians have been victors.

The most important aspect for the success of resistance or war is the choice of the right time. Every time we fought back too early or without preparation and coordination we lost or got a useless moral victory (most of the fedayee actions during the revolutionary movement). Every time we prepared and waited for the right time we succeeded.

[Joseph]

Arminfo, Armenia
June 11 2018


Armenian expert unmasks Azerbaijani fake news related to Nakhijevan

Yerevan June 11


Marianna Mkrtchyan. A group of military, political express, bloggers and journalists accompanied by Minister of Defense of Armenia Artsrun Hovhannisyan and officers of Armenia's Armed Forces visited Armenian military positions deployed in direction of Nakhijevan on June 10.

Director of Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs Stepan Safaryan, who was in the group, wrote on his Facebook page, that they have seen at first hand that Azerbaijan was spreading fake news related to "return of abandoned Gunnut village", "liberation of Khunut mountatin", "occupation of strategic height",''liberation of 11 thousand hectares of territory'', ''construction of new road with a 50km lengh in the rear" and "establishing control over Yerevan-Goris-Stepanakert road".

"To be clear, Armenian positions are located on the top of Mount Gunnut and they are guarded by our guard, as it was before, an abandoned village Gunnut / Gunnut is under the control of the Armenian side and it is still abandoned, as well as those sandbags that they would like to turn into firing points, but ... how stupid theyr really are: under the direct fist of our guards ... The probability of resettlement of the village is reduced to zero and is meaningless, and the presence of a firing point on its height depends on our goodwill .. I hope and I'm sure it will not be good, "Safaryan said.

At the same time the expert called the message about taking control of the firing point near Areni village or on the Yerevan-Goris-Stepanakert road section fake. According to him, Azerbaijan continues to possess the same height as before. According to him, in reality, attempts to settle on the hills located at the foot of our position are evident, but there are many problems that they can not solve. "'he construction of a 50 km section of the road is out of question, it is fake news and most likely the money should be written off in the army of Nakhijevan, 11,000 hectares is half of Yerevan, I'm sorry, but this is nonsense." Moreover, at the end of our "march" we visited our positions, which are advanced in other directions, and where real engineering work is carried out'', he wrote.

But, it is rather interesting what they want to achieve with this propaganda regarding "advancement". It should be noted that something is happening there, about which I will tell in my report "Nakhijevan in the palm of your hand and in the hare's field: what Aliev's power is silent about", which will be published in three languages very soon. Only I'm afraid that after that there will be mourning in Azerbaijan, and panic in Nakhijevan, "Safaryan said. In conclusion he added that he sighed with relief when he rose to the top of Gunnut Mountain and saw everything with his own eyes.

Earlier, Azeri media spread information that supposedly in late May, the Gunnut village located around important strategic heights was "liberated from occupation and local residents returned to their homes and visited the graves of deceased relatives". "The National Army liberated from occupation the mountain Gunnut, Gyzylgaya and Mehridag, Agbulag hill, village of Arpa in Daralayaz. In overall 11 thousand hectares are under control, more than 8000 ha of which is arable. The greatest strategical importance of the height located at an altitude of 1683 meters above sea level, which allows to keep under control the village Gunnut Sharur hill Gyzylgaya. is that it allows our military to control the highway Yerevan-Yeghegnadzor-Goris-Lachin-Khankendi. In order to protect the territory, a new road with a length of 50 km has been completed, and roads with a total length of over 50 km have been reconstructed," the Azeri propaganda lied.

Meanwhile, according to Artsrun Hovhannisyan, press secretary of the Defense Ministry of Armenia, on June 6 and 7, the Azeri side appealed to the command of the Armed Forces, with a request to allow some of its citizens to approach the cemetery located in the south of the ruins of the village of Gunnut. "This is the first time that the Azeri side has requested this on this site: the Armenian side, while remaining committed to humanitarian norms and always taking steps to reduce tension, agreed and allowed the peaceful residents to approach the cemetery for a short period," Hovhannisyan said.

[Joseph]

http://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-makes-territorial-gains-in-nakhchivan/

[Hakob]

The reason of armenian restraint is not goodwill, weak mentality or the will to appease anybody but the lack of probability to win in a war. You cannot answer every provocation in the desired "adequate" way if you have to fear an even more aggressive answer of the enemy which you can't repel adequately anymore. I don't think that the current situation satisfies any Armenian but we have to admit that the handling of this problem is much more difficult than that what you guys have written. Look at the real situation of our economy, look at the real numbers of soldier conscription and then you see the concrete reason of our soft attitude towards the enemy. We have to try to keep the balance and avoid any major confrontation until our economy and demographics recover.

I don’t agree at all.
Azeris have the real lack of probability to win, based on past wars and conflicts with us.
By initiating terror and pressure on frontline they try to gain that higher probability of win, while we loose it further.
By doing nothing we guarantee bigger and heavier conflicts with azeris.
The only way is to respond with heavy and inequal actions every time azeris kill one of our own.
like destroying their position line with heavy bombardment or taking over that position in an opportune moment. It will not lead to war, on the contrary, it would lower the probability.
If azeris knew they could win war, they would start one regardless of our responce.
By escalating we make it costly for enemy and drop their will for further killings.
like next time they hit our villages in Tavush, we should take their positions.
By doing nothing we gain international name of weak idiots not respect.