Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian peacekeepers in Iraq:

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

15:21 Azerbaijani armed forces continue to bear the loss
As reported by the media of Azerbaijan, dislocated in Nahidzhevanskoy autonomy N-military unit of the armed forces of Azerbaijan, has died from the disease common Orhan Nariman oglu Babayev, born in 1992. A. Babaev was called up for active military service Ordubad region military enlistment offices just a month ago.

Voskanapat.info, monitor the situation in the armed forces of Azerbaijan, reports that this year is already 43 loss of Azeri Defense Ministry.

Voskanapat.info

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=ru&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://voskanapat.info/

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

15:21 Azerbaijani armed forces continue to bear the loss
As reported by the media of Azerbaijan, dislocated in Nahidzhevanskoy autonomy N-military unit of the armed forces of Azerbaijan, has died from the disease common Orhan Nariman oglu Babayev, born in 1992. A. Babaev was called up for active military service Ordubad region military enlistment offices just a month ago.

Voskanapat.info, monitor the situation in the armed forces of Azerbaijan, reports that this year is already 43 loss of Azeri Defense Ministry.

Voskanapat.info
http://translate.google.com/translat...skanapat.info/

43! Azerbaijan needs to push for the all-time record for non-combat deaths. Armenia can help them with the combat deaths.

[haysip]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

just came out

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

US-Azerbaijan joint military exercises adjourned yet another time
April 19, 2011 - 20:27 AMT 15:27 GMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - 2011 Regional Response US-Azerbaijan joint military exercises have been adjourned yet another time. 2011 Regional Response joint exercises were scheduled for March 15-25. No reasons provided as to the delay, 1news.az reported.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/67666/

Israel Aerospace Industries offers to sell Heron unmanned aircraft systems to Azerbaijan
April 19, 2011 - 20:22 AMT 15:22 GMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - Israel Aerospace Industries has offered to sell Azerbaijan its Heron 1 and Searcher 2 unmanned aircraft systems.

Made during a recent visit to Azerbaijan by an IAI delegation, the offer was prompted by the potential customer's need to support its oil and gas industries using defence equipment, Flightglobal reported.

No reply from Azerbaijan has yet been provided.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/67665/

[edojan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

there is a lot of talk that Azeri oil will start running out soon figures from 2012 to 2020. Anyone have a credible non Armenian research link on quantity of oil they have?
I realize that gas reserves will last for many decades but what about oil? All i read so far is from Armenian sources saying 2012 its declining ... but is there an actual/factual study done on how much oil reserves Azerbaijan actually has? (even unexplored/undrilled wells).

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

there is a lot of talk that Azeri oil will start running out soon figures from 2012 to 2020. Anyone have a credible non Armenian research link on quantity of oil they have?
I realize that gas reserves will last for many decades but what about oil? All i read so far is from Armenian sources saying 2012 its declining ... but is there an actual/factual study done on how much oil reserves Azerbaijan actually has? (even unexplored/undrilled wells).

Petroleum production provides 85 percent of Azerbaijan's state budget revenues, accounts for 78 percent of the country's GDP and 92 percent of Azerbaijan's export. In other words, Azerbaijan completely depends on oil revenue in its standoff against Armenia, in military expenditures, in the food import-based welfare of its populace, and in ensuing political stability. The lion's share of oil revenue is provided by one single cluster of three offshore oil fields, Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, discovered before Azerbaijan’s independence by Soviet geologists in the Caspian Sea. These three platforms presently supply 42 million of Azerbaijan's 50 million tons of annual oil production. Since then, 23 exploration contracts signed with foreign oil companies have failed to find any new oil deposit in Azerbaijan and its sector of the Caspian Sea.
Therefore, any speculation about Azerbaijan's prospects, both domestically and in Karabakh, is made simple by the country's complete dependence on these three oil fields: with their inevitable depletion Azerbaijan's economic strength will attenuate, which will in turn diminish its chances of resolving the Karabakh issue by force. The reserves of these fields are a state secret in Azerbaijan, but numerous foreign oil industry sources give evidence that, at the current rate of extraction, the three main fields will be depleted by 2019.

http://hir.harvard.edu/azerbaijans-chances-in-the-karabakh-conflict?page=0,0

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Georgia Doesn't Allow Russian Military Transit to Armenia -- But Azerbaijan Does?
April 19, 2011 - 2:03pm, by Joshua Kucera

The Georgian parliament has annulled a deal allowing Russia to transit military cargo to its base in Armenia via Georgia. This is just formalizing the de facto situation -- transit via Georgia to the Russian base in Gyumri was already halted, de facto, after the war in 2008 over South Ossetia. From Civil.ge:

Georgian Parliament unanimously endorsed on April 19 government’s proposal to annul a five-year agreement with Russia setting out procedures for transit of Russian military personnel and cargo to Armenia via Georgia.

The agreement on transit of military personnel and cargo, giving Russia access to its 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia through land and air via Georgia, was signed in March, 2006 in parallel with a separate agreement based on which Russia pulled out its military bases from Batumi and Akhalkalaki. The both of the agreements were ratified by the Georgian Parliament on April 13, 2006.

Equipment that Armenia is buying from/being given by Russia is still allowed to transit Georgia, as was highlighted by a 2010 diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks and published by Russkiy Reporter magazine, the transit had been of concern to Georgia for fear that some of the equipment being sent to Armenia is more than Armenia might need and could be instead destined for Russian forces in Armenia with the potential of being used against Georgia:

Georgia is also concerned by a significant increase in military supplies from Russia to Armenia planned for 2010 primarily via overflights between Russia and Armenia. Although Georgia has continued to allow the flights to maintain a good relationship with Armenia, it does not believe Armenia has the capacity to use these shipments itself and fears that such armaments as large-caliber ammunition for aircraft could be intended for Russian forces in Armenia, instead of the Armenian military. Not only could such shipments disrupt the balance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but they could potentially be used to squeeze Georgia from the south as well should there be a future conflict with Russia.

(h/t Emil Sanamyan on that cable)

So how is the base in Gyumri being supplied now, if not through Georgia? The only other countries that make sense geographically are Turkey and Azerbaijan, which both pose obvious political problems. But remarkably, it seems that the base is supplied at least in part via Azerbaijan (though Azerbaijan denies it). So if Azerbaijan is the only way to get supplies into the base, that would appear to give Baku a pretty big amount of leverage.

Despite the uncertainty over the Russian base, on the surface things seem to be quite friendly between Georgia and Armenia. The Armenian and Georgian defense ministers met yesterday and were all smiles about the prospect of cooperation. From RFE/RL:

“Armenian-Georgian military cooperation is effectively developing, encompassing peacekeeping, military education, exercises and other areas,” Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian told a joint news conference with his visiting Georgian counterpart, Bacho Akhalaia.

“That cooperation aims to ensure an exchange of experience and form an atmosphere of mutual trust in the peaceful resolution of regional security problems,” he said...

“Georgian-Armenian relations are special, and no force can impede cooperation between the two countries, which I’m sure will become stronger soon,” said Akhalaia.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63331

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Georgia Doesn't Allow Russian Military Transit to Armenia -- But Azerbaijan Does?

something is very fishy with all of this. None of this makes any sense to an outside observer.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So how is the base in Gyumri being supplied now, if not through Georgia? The only other countries that make sense geographically are Turkey and Azerbaijan, which both pose obvious political problems. But remarkably, it seems that the base is supplied at least in part via Azerbaijan (though Azerbaijan denies it). So if Azerbaijan is the only way to get supplies into the base, that would appear to give Baku a pretty big amount of leverage.

Why can't Armenia subcontract this work (transportation).

There is no flight ban for Armenian flights.

Good opportunity to increase the AAF capability.