Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Some azeri forces call for new war and even jihad

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The League of Nations once rejected Azerbaijan’s membership bid over its territorial claims. Years later, official Baku renounced the soviet legal and political heritage, thus recognizing that it had been forcibly keeping Nagorno Karabakh as a part of its territory in the course of 70 years, according to an advisor to the NKR Foreign Minister.

“Azerbaijan’s war against Nagorno Karabakh can be rated to international terrorism, genocide and ethnic cleansing with a purpose of total annihilation of NKR population and destruction of cultural monuments,” Ruben Zargaryan wrote in “Karabakh Reconquista” peace of opinion obtained by PanARMENIAN.Net.

“The genocidal policy of the Azerbaijani authorities against Armenians in late 1980ies and early 1990ies should be condemned. Azeri war criminals should stand international tribunal. Instead, Azerbaijan is building up the military potential; some forces call for a news war and even jihad. Azerbaijan is as an aggressor state, whose territories [in compliance with the international practice], can be separated to prevent a new aggression,” he said.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=27943

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Good news, time is on our side. If would be very wrong to hurry and make `concessions´. Our most important task is to build up our army and improve its quility, for if in the near future Azerbaijans economy will collapse (ourse will not) it will cause chaos and a potential war.

A war that, if good prepared, can totally distruct Azerbaijan. We can even liberate more of OUR historical lands. It would be totally wrong making concessions now, everyone knows that in the future they will attack us and claim more land. If we break our natural fortress and give it to them, it will cost many Armenian lives to re-take that area in the future. No lands should be given back to Azerbaijan, never. Let the borders between Armenia and Turkey be closed, we are smart enough to cope with that.

We must build a new highway linking Armenia with Georgia, Georgia is as anti-Russian as it can be and still we survive and have economic growth. Just imagine what will happen if Georgia will have a pro-Russian and pro-Western leader in the future (what will happen), it will benefit us even more. A new railway (oil and gas pipeline, refinery' linking Armenia with Iran and their ports will improve trade also. We are a small nation, if we can create an innovative industry who exports technology we can survive and be properous. It is not too difficult to create a properous country with just three million people.

The future of Azerbaijan is not bright, even now when they earn billions of dollars, they can´t do xxxx. The corrupt gamble-addicted monkey Aliyev is very good for the Armenians, for in the future they will have a new struggle-for-power what will turn Azerbaijan into chaos.

(Some Armenians are getting optimistic about a peace-settlement with Azerbaijan. This is our fault we have made throughout history, we have always hoped for the best and eventually got the worst. We must never make the same mistake again, and so in my opinion we must not give an inch of land to Azerbaijan, but we must claim lands from them like Naxichevan.)


/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Caspian oil and gas makes 4 per cent and 7 per cent of the world resources respectively, what is undoubtedly not enough to boast a glut of wealth, a French expert said.

“Two thirds of the oil world resources are concentrated in the Middle East, a high-risk zone. As to Azerbaijan, it has 7 billion barrels. To compare, Turkmenistan has 1 billion while Kazakhstan has 40 million. So, any oil pipeline from the Caspian region to Europe is non-remunerative without Kazakh oil. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can choose routes. Kazakh pipelines can stretch to Russian, China, Persian Gulf and finally to Baku,” Petros Terzian, head of Paris-based strategic research foundation, said in Yerevan on Tuesday.

“The oil fields in Azeri, Shirag and Gyuneshli will be exhausted in some 10 years. Moreover, after the status of the Caspian Sea is determined, investments in oil extraction will become unprofitable,” he said.

Mr. Terzian reminded that Azerbaijan’s current oil income is equal to the republic’s state debt.

“Baku can make a breakthrough with $100 for a barrel, what is, however, hardly probable for near-term outlook. The world financial crisis made Azerbaijan’s future rather vague,” he said.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Too bad NKR is not bound by any of these garbage rules since no one wants to recognize it
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Arms Race?: Armenia concerned over Azerbaijan’s increasing military spending

Armenia has constantly pointed at the fact that Azerbaijan has several times increased its military budget and continues its military buildup. However, a majority of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) member states have not given an adequate evaluation to the fact that Baku violates international treaties on limitations of armaments, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan stated in Yerevan during a joint press conference with the OSCE’s secretary general on Monday.

Marc Perrin de Brichambaut stated that the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFET) is a major instrument of preserving peace in the region and its fulfillment has become particularly important after the events in Georgia.

According to the CFET quotas for Azerbaijan and Armenia, either country can have no more than 220 tanks, 285 units of field artillery and mortars, etc.. Azerbaijan long ago crossed the limit, officials in Yerevan believe.

Beginning in 2004, Baku’s military spending has constantly grown, which became possible due to the increased revenues in the lucrative oil sector. According to official data, in 2007 Baku’s military budget reached the level of $1.1 billion, while Yerevan’s military spending amounted to $280 million.

According to the data of Armenia’s Defense Ministry, Azerbaijan has 276 tanks and more than 1,000 armored troop-carriers (instead of allowed 220).

Still since the end of last year, Baku has stated about the need for revising the CFET quotas for Azerbaijan “considering the new geopolitical realities.”

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov said that Azerbaijan has certain problems in connection with the CFET because of the presence of uncontrolled territories where neither Azerbaijani nor international representatives can conduct inspections.

In his New Year address to the nation on December 31, 2007, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev promised to continue the modernization of armed forces and stated that the country’s military budget in 2008 will be no less than $1.2 billion. He repeatedly stated that “in the future Azerbaijan’s military budget will generally exceed the whole budget of Armenia.”

At the Monday press conference in Yerevan, Minister Nalbandyan pointed out that the problem of Azerbaijan’s exceeding its CFET quotas requires a more serious approach and that “by increasing its defense spending Azerbaijan does not speak about peaceful intentions, but rather speaks about the possibility of war.”

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain the region’s two military archrivals having an unsettled dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a Yerevan-backed former autonomous region in Soviet Azerbaijan that won its de-facto independence from Baku as a result of the 1991-1994 war. Despite the ceasefire and continuing internationally mediated peace talks, sporadic clashes and skirmishes often occur between Azeri and Armenian forces along the line of contact.

http://armenianow.com/?action=viewArticle&AID=3458&CID=3297&IID=1213&lng=eng

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Good! This is the only kind of attitude that has to be used. There are no "buffer zones", "security belts", "7 regions around NK", "NK proper" etc. There is only NKR!
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NKR doesn’t use term ‘liberated territories’
18.12.2008 18:00 GMT+04:00 Print version Send to mail In Russian In Armenian

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Nagorno Karabakh doesn’t use the term ‘liberated territories,’ an expert said.

“Seven regions that were regained by the Karabakh army during the war are inseparable part of the NKR territory, as it’s fixed in the Constitution,” Masis Mayilyan said during “The Karabakh issue: perceptions in Armenian society and the results of 2008 negotiations” round table discussion today.

“These territories constitute the security zone. It’s impossible to say whether Lachin is more important that Fizuli. All regions are strategically important,” he said.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=28064

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Good! This is the only kind of attitude that has to be used. There are no "buffer zones", "security belts", "7 regions around NK", "NK proper" etc. There is only NKR!
----------------------------------------------------
NKR doesn’t use term ‘liberated territories’
18.12.2008 18:00 GMT+04:00 Print version Send to mail In Russian In Armenian

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Nagorno Karabakh doesn’t use the term ‘liberated territories,’ an expert said.

“Seven regions that were regained by the Karabakh army during the war are inseparable part of the NKR territory, as it’s fixed in the Constitution,” Masis Mayilyan said during “The Karabakh issue: perceptions in Armenian society and the results of 2008 negotiations” round table discussion today.

“These territories constitute the security zone. It’s impossible to say whether Lachin is more important that Fizuli. All regions are strategically important,” he said.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=28064

caver@ tanim, this how it must be

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Excellent news! This one will strike at the "azeri" morale very well.
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Azeri POW ‘Staying In Armenia’

By Emil Danielyan

An Azerbaijani soldier who was taken prisoner by Armenian troops recently has been shown on television saying that he will not return home and wants to stay in Armenia for good.

Rafik Hasanov reportedly crossed into Armenia from the westernmost section of its long and heavily militarized border with Azerbaijan on October 8. According to the Armenian military, the 19-year-old conscript willingly surrendered to its troops stationed there, citing systematic hazing at the hands of Azerbaijani army officers and fellow soldiers.

Armenian state television broadcast late Thursday excerpts from an interview which Hasanov said was videotaped the previous day at his own request. The Defense Ministry in Yerevan released the full transcript of the interview, translated from the Azerbaijani language, on Friday.

“I have willingly come to Armenia and am going to become an Armenian citizen,” declared Hasanov. “I will not return to Azerbaijan because they beat and humiliate me there.”

“I am treated well and receive medical assistance in Armenia, and I want to send my warm regards to my parents, relatives, friends and tell them not worry about me: they don’t beat me, they treat me well here,” he said before reading out a poem dedicated to his family.

It was not clear if Hasanov has also communicated his stated wish to stay in Armenia to representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The latter usually visit Armenian and Azerbaijani prisoners of war and arrange their repatriations.

The Azerbaijani government and military did not immediately react to the development. While instances of Azerbaijani soldiers fleeing their units to avoid mistreatment by their commanders and comrades are reported by the Armenian military on a regular basis, it is the first time that an Azerbaijani serviceman claims to be seeking permanent asylum in his country’s arch-foe.

Hasanov claimed that he was beaten up in “almost daily” and shot himself in the foot to be transferred to a military hospital. He said his commanders continued to ill-treat him after he was discharged from the hospital and sent back his army unit deployed near the western Azerbaijani town of Gazakh.

“I am appealing to [Azerbaijani Defense Minister] Safar Abiev to inspect Gazakh’s 707th army brigade and, in particular, the fifth battalion and the first battalion’s outposts at Aslan Beyli, Gay Makhli and Kyamarli,” continued Hasanov. “Let them check and see why such things occur.”

Yaghub Mukhtarov, another Azerbaijani soldier serving in the Gazakh area, likewise alleged hazing at the hands of fellow soldiers and officers as he was taken prisoner by Armenian forces last March. Mukhtarov was repatriated to Azerbaijan with the help of the ICRC less than two months later.

Also, last February Armenia deported to an unnamed “European country” another Azerbaijani soldier captured in similar circumstances in January 2006. The soldier, Samir Mamedov, apparently refused to return home to avoid prosecution on treason charges. At least several Azerbaijani soldiers were reportedly handed lengthy prison sentences in recent years after returning from Armenian captivity.

The Armenian military is clearly not immune to such problems. It has been trying to secure the release of an Armenian soldier who ended up in Azerbaijani captivity last July. Azerbaijani media have quoted the soldier, Paruyr Simonian, as saying that he voluntarily crossed the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline and wants to be deported to a third country. Armenian military officials have declined to comment on the statements attributed to Simonian.

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2008/12/08069472-213F-4F38-856F-B439736D602A.ASP

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

lol, this reminds me of the propaganda music and messages coming out from megaphones on the North Korean side of the DMZ saying how the other side of the border is a paradise. I think this is a good idea for us too.

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

the south ossestian war demonstrated the limitations of the russian military. if nagorno karabakh erupted into a war again, the russian military would inflict heavy blows on azerbaijan, but at what cost to itself?

the russian military would not be capable of maintaining any kind of dominaiton over azerbaijan. its own internal conflicts in the northern caucus would reignite and cause it great strain. Azerbaijan's population of over 9 million is not something the russian military can manage.

regardless if armenia will succeed again as it did in the early 90's of the karabakh war, the military upkeep has drained armenia. the next war, irrespective of winner and loser, because of azerbaijan's aggressive military growth will deal a huge a blow to armenia whether it triumphs or not. the war will set armenia back another decade forcing it spend its efforts on recovery instead of development. this can't continue.

the third karabakh war, after the next, will be in azerbaijan's favor.

[gmd]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

the south ossestian war demonstrated the limitations of the russian military. if nagorno karabakh erupted into a war again, the russian military would inflict heavy blows on azerbaijan, but at what cost to itself?

the russian military would not be capable of maintaining any kind of dominaiton over azerbaijan. its own internal conflicts in the northern caucus would reignite and cause it great strain. Azerbaijan's population of over 9 million is not something the russian military can manage.

regardless if armenia will succeed again as it did in the early 90's of the karabakh war, the military upkeep has drained armenia. the next war, irrespective of winner and loser, because of azerbaijan's aggressive military growth will deal a huge a blow to armenia whether it triumphs or not. the war will set armenia back another decade forcing it spend its efforts on recovery instead of development. this can't continue.

the third karabakh war, after the next, will be in azerbaijan's favor.

Your reasoning is flawed. The population of Azerbaijan is made up of different ethnic groups who are not necessarily happy with the present Azeri government. Military defeats can severly undermine Azeri politics as in the past. As already posted in previous posts Armenia will be fighting from a defensive position. Your post is suggesting an Azeri war with Russia. In such a scenario the Azeri's would certainly face a second front against Armenia and possible problems on the southern border with Iran. I think it unlikely that the Azeri's would instigate a conflict with Russia or even directly attack Armenia. Both Iran and Russia have too much invested in Armenia, both economically and politcallly, to allow the Azeri's an easy victory. Plus any conflict would at least during the conflict severly hamper if not stop the oil flow which could cripple the Azeri economy. Maybe you should read back to the previous posts in this thread. I think there are posts that offer great analysis.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

the south ossestian war demonstrated the limitations of the russian military. if nagorno karabakh erupted into a war again, the russian military would inflict heavy blows on azerbaijan, but at what cost to itself?

the russian military would not be capable of maintaining any kind of dominaiton over azerbaijan. its own internal conflicts in the northern caucus would reignite and cause it great strain. Azerbaijan's population of over 9 million is not something the russian military can manage.

regardless if armenia will succeed again as it did in the early 90's of the karabakh war, the military upkeep has drained armenia. the next war, irrespective of winner and loser, because of azerbaijan's aggressive military growth will deal a huge a blow to armenia whether it triumphs or not. the war will set armenia back another decade forcing it spend its efforts on recovery instead of development. this can't continue.

the third karabakh war, after the next, will be in azerbaijan's favor.

Limited in what way that they need a couple of divisions to crush the whole Georgian Army, and in a war against the Azeris we don't need the Russians we can do it on our own like the last time.

And the Dashnaks have already said it if they(Azeris) start the war again we will have a border with Russia