Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

They have not received the Mi-35s.
What you saw in the video are the old Mi-24s that they already have. Some of them were modified by South Africa, thise have a different nose.

I will give a full debrief on the parade soon.

So those choppers at 26:57 are not Mi-35Ms? Well that is good.

[Mos]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Serge Sarkisian is the best President of Armenia since independence.

agreed. Though Kocharian was a good president also, especially when it came to defence and international relations. I won't even talk about Levon.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

REPORT ON AZERBAIJAN MILITARY PARADE

MiG-29 Fighters over Baku

The Azerbaijan Armed Forces held their parade on 26.06.2011. The country dispalyed its latest and best military equipment in a brouhaha of Nationalistic pride and cult worship of their "beloved" leader Sultan Aliyev. But behind the multitude of banners/flags, the screech of jet engines and the fresh coat of paint on the vehicles (and the faces of the soldiers), the Azeris showed the "real" strengths (and weaknesses) of their armed forces. The untrained eye may be impressed by the quantity and diversity of their weapons systems, but the more knowledgable person will look beyond the surface and get a clearer picture. Following is the first part of what the parade looked like in the eyes of ZORAVAR.

ZORAVAR's Report (Part I): The Azerbaijan Air Force

While most people watched the parade with the intention of seing new equipment and system and the possible unexpected surprise, I was more interested in finding out what will be absent from the parade. For propaganda and internal consumption purposes the Azeris will talk, announce, show and display anything and everything they posess, order and/or intend to order. For instance they have a total of three BMP-3 model infantry fighting vehicles left over from the Soviet times, all of them were paraded yesterday. If they have one piece of equipment, they will make sure they will display it with great fanfare. But, enough talk, lets analyze what they showed...or didn't.

The most credible numbers for the Azerbaijan Air Force are from the annual "WORLD AIR FORCES" report from the British FLIGHT magazine. These are their numbers:

Combat Aircraft
5 MiG-21
5 MiG-25
13 MiG-29
11 Su-24
12 Su-25
12 L-39 (combat capable trainers)

Helicopters
23 Mi-8/17
35 Mi-24

At the previous (2007) parade, there were no MiG-21s which led me to believe that they retired these museum pieces years ago. So the MiG-21s should be scratched from the list.

At the previous parade, they showed a few MiG-25s. They were absent this time. Taking into consideration that these planes are very specialized, over 30 years old and costly to operate, I can conclude that they are no longer flying. Scratch them please.

Most notable in their absence were the Su-24s. I have always emphasized that these all-weather day/night capable fighter/bombers are the most dangerous aircraft for us. Properly used, they can target any place in Armenia. They can carry out low level strikes (even at night), thus reducing the effectiveness of our air-defenses. They are the only Azeri aircraft that can carry precision guided weapons. But, they were just not there...Why wouldn't the Azeris not have a few of their most prized toys fly over the skies of Baku like they did on the previous parade? Your humble ZORAVAR is tending to believe that the "mighty" Azeri Air Force has "mothballed" these aircraft. Could it be that these complex and maintenance extensive planes are just "too much" for their pilots and ground crew to handle? Maybe the airframes are at their expiry? Possibly the Russians are not selling them spare parts? Whatever the reason(s) may be, I am tending to believe that our air defense crews are not gowing to be as busy as I was thinking earlier. The removal of the Su-24s from the Azeri Air Force order of battle is great news for us.

So what is left with the Azeri Air Force? The Su-25s, MiG-29s and L-39 trainers flew past. According to FLIGHT Magazine there is one squadron each of the above; that's it. Furthermore, they have no orders for new jet aircraft. The J-7 order from China turned out to be hot air. Noteworthy is the fact that the current aircraft were all built during Soviet times and are at least 20 years old.

On the other hand, they have a considerable number of helicopters ( Mi-8 and Mi-24) and have ordered more Mi-35s (which is a more modern version of the Mi-24).

Mi-24 gunship modernized by South Africa

Considering that the Armenian Air Force has at least as many Su-25s as well as a quartet of L-39s. The Azeri air superiority is in their 13 (12 according to ZORAVAR) MiG-29 fighters which are mainly for air defense and have limited use against ground targets.

My short and simple conclusion is that the Azeri air superiority is not goind to be a determining factor on the battlefield. We need to ensure that we are able to defend our ground units against their Su-25s and helicopter gunships while using our own air assets as effectively as possible.

Part II coming soon.

[ArmeniaR1]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There was not much changed in the azeri parade compared to a couple years back, the only new weapon was the S-300, otokar (turkish junk) and African Mi-24....

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you for your analysis ZORAVAR. Don't you think in a new war the MiG-29's in the Russian base of Gyumri will be used by the Armenian Air Force, especially if Armenia proper is attacked by Azerbaijan? The air superiority of Azerbaijan would then be close to zero, especially taking into account Azerbaboon pilots.

[ArmeniaR1]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani soldiers continue killing each other
June 27, 2011 - 21:47 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - This is for the second time for 10 days a soldier from the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan kills his associate. This time the incident took place at the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian forces.

As APA reports quoting the Military Commissariat of Baku Sabunchinski region, “Mamed Asad oglu Gurbanov called up for military service by Nizami district military registration and enlistment office of Gyandzha, born in 1992 , fired a shot from the service weapon being on his relief, as a result of which another soldier Shirkhan Akif oglu Iskenderov, born in 1988, died. The reason of shot was not specified yet.

The similar incident took place on June 16. Mardan Bashirov, enlisted by the Agdara Region Military Commissariat, has shot dead soldier Vusal Alizade, enlisted by the Sabail District Military Commissariat, with his service gun in the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry’s military unit in the Shamkir region.

In addition, Junior Sergeant of the Defense Ministry’s military unit in the Shamkir region Kenan Muradov lost control when driving a motorcycle and crashed into a tree. Muradov died on the scene.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you for your analysis ZORAVAR. Don't you think in a new war the MiG-29's in the Russian base of Gyumri will be used by the Armenian Air Force, especially if Armenia proper is attacked by Azerbaijan? The air superiority of Azerbaijan would then be close to zero, especially taking into account Azerbaboon pilots.

I can't give a concrete answer. All I can say is the Russians are sooner or later going to change the MiG-29s in Erebuni with something else.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ZORAVAR thank you for the analysis.

Do you see an iceberg?

Armenia has tended to play its cards close to its chest.
Do you think the baboons are copying?

[Hye]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[QUOTE]

Hi Vrej1915

you claim Russia helped Azerbaijan against Armenia during Karabakh war in 1991 operation ring and 1992. I haven't heard abour any Russian help in 1992 if you have reliable sources be my guest.

1992 JUNE: Yeltsin had agreed to transfer an equal number of 100 T 72-s to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, in a deal of sharing red army's arsenal in the S Caucasus. Days later, with no worning; he delivered more than 350-400 Tanks and BTRs, etc to newly elected Elchibey, while Armenia had to wait 6 months to have its part... In the mean time, the ex soviet tank division, manned by its ex-soviet (mostly Russian, even if Armenians prefered to remember the ukrainians nowdays) crews, marched on Chahumian and Martakert.
This is history, well known to anybody in Artsakh those days, and reported many times.
You can find if you wish.

For serjik, I wish you were right, but unfortunately your demonstration is wishful thinking

Concerning Russia: If you look at it closely, you will discover quite the contrary. Russia sacrifices our interests each time it feels secure/sure enough, and this till the days of Tzarina..; And by today, Russia , or more specifically, Mr Medvedev is pushing a very pro turkish policy against us, and in fact, is trying to force us to concede territories, to please ankara/baku.
To claim the contrary is only due to lack of information, or wishful thinking.

Any way, as a last detail, the selling of S 300 is real provocation, and destabilising factor.... anyone having an idea of the real military balance, and the thinking of azeri leadership does understand it.
The only reason they do not really consider an attack, is their fear of Baku burning like an oil barrel. And S 300 may give them the sentiment of 'unvulnerability' against our long range missiles... (no matter if that sentiment is erroneous)
And here it does not matter that we had this technology for years, etc...Of course we had it, because we are the stategic allies of Russia.
We have a lot other things that neither azerbaijan, nor any other neighbor has. Does that mean that Russia can give them to Baku for some cash?
If Turkey had gave them, it would have been 'normal', ..

Any way, I see one major reason for russian misbehaviour: their sentiment of 'impunity' in the armenian opinion, and you just gave a good proof.
If they knew that the 600 million of pocket money Mr Medvedev grabbed for the S 300 may have endangered the future of their base in Gyumri, they would have thinked twice...

Signing the 2044 (10 years before term) prolongation deal by serjik, in these conditions, proves his abilities...
Any way, I will not return on him. He and Levon are the worst calamities destiny inflicted on us since Stalin & Ataturk.

As you wish Vrej whatever helps you sleep at night
thanks

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have put this link to compare an army during parade and during a war. In fact few months before the war.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xh7tn8_libyan-army-military-parade-in-tripoli_news