Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

As the starter of this thread, I am displeased to see it go so much low... Please do clean up this thread from unrelated off topic discussions. Thanks in advance.

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Zoravar, I apologize, this cleanup was long overdue. This was an embarrassment.

For the record, I moved many posts here and deleted some that just got in the way: http://forum.hyeclub.com/showthread.php?t=15905

[Anoush]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I apologize to Zoravar from my behalf.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There is no need to apologize.

Sometimes discussions go off-topic but still remain interesting and constructive...and sometimes they don't. That's why we need moderators (like jgk3) who are doing a wonderfull job keeping things on track for the benefit of everyone.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Hmmm. According to this Georgian source, Azerbaidjan will increase their defense spending by a lot which contradicts an older Azerbaboon article stating there will be a 10% decrease in defense spendings.

The article also confirms what we have stated for awhile; that Armenia gets most of its weapons for cheap or free thus balancing the huge defense budget differences between us and the entity to our east. Oh yeah, plus we should always add ~50 million to Armenia's official defense budget every year due to the Artsakh one.

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[Georgian] Defence budget to be decreased

Thursday, January 8

The 2009 state budget envisages GEL 952 million for defence, a reduction of about 600 million on 2008. In 2007 the defence budget was GEL 1.5 billion approximately.

Since 2004 the country has spent more than GEL 4 billion on its defence alone. Some military experts express their regret that this huge amount could have been spent more efficiently if the amounts had been targeted more precisely, covering the exact needs for the country’s defence system. “If the personnel selection policy had been based on attracting professionals the outcome of the August war and the situation today would have been better,” says military expert Irakli Aladashvili. This should be regretted because it is unlikely that Georgia will be able to afford that much money for its defense needs in the near future.

Georgia’s neighbours are increasing their military budgets. In 2008 for instance the Azerbaijan defence budget was USD 1.859 billion. In 2009 Azerbaijan intends to increase this figure to USD 2.5 billion. Armenia’s defence budget in 2009 will be USD 493 million. A separate issue for Armenia is the defence budget for Karabakh, which is USD 50 million. It should be added that the hardware and ammunition Armenia receives from Russia is either very cheap or free of charge.

http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/1769_january_8_2009/1769_econ_one.html

EDIT I edited this post because I don't think it's appropriate to use the phrase "Azerbaboon". I know this is an Armenian forum, but we also have to try to keep things civil, respectful and cordial. For too long we have let things slip and many people who read this forum will be dissuaded by such language. So let's keep things focused. Thanks. --Anonymouse

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

In late 2008 Russia delivered to Armenia arms in the amount of $800 mln.

09 January 2009 [16:34] - Today.Az
Day.Az has asked some questions on this topic among some deputies of Milli Medjlis of Azerbaijan:

Deputy chairman of the parliamentary commission on issues of defense and security Aydin Mirzazade:

"It can be featured only as international scandal. One of the conflict parties is supplied with different weapons in the amount of about $800,000,000. Considering the fact that currently the annual military budget of Armenia makes $400,000,000 is turning into a large military storehouse.

At the same time considering the fact that Russia is one of the co-chairs of the OSCR Minsk Group, which is bound to mediate in the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict, the position of our northern neighbor is surprising. It is unclear to the Azerbaijani community, why it is done so and what international law is takaen as a basis. Russia must mediate and adhere to a just position, which implies the return of 20% of Armenian occupied lands to Azerbaijan.

Russia must be interested in the demilitarization of this region. But instead of it we see that our strategic ally supplies the occupant with weapons in the large amount. The aim of this armament is clear - it is Azerbaijan, occupation of new lands, destabilization of the situation in the region. We would like to get a clear response from Russia.

It is clear that Armenia purchases weapons from Russia. But its supply with such a great volume of arms can affect the situation in the region. We demand the return of these arms and Armenia's demilitarization.

This contradicts to the Moscow declaration, undersigned by the President of Russia. What is that? The protest against the Moscow declaration by some circles of Russia or provocation against the Russian President? Anyway, those responsible for these provocation must be found, their names made public and they must be punished".

Deputy Zahid Oruc:

"I think Russia's actions contradict to international documents it joins it. Though they try to explain their actions as being legal in the framework of the CSTO with Armenia, anyway, this is a violation of international norms.

Russia's policy on Armenia's militarization can be qualified the lack of Russia's interest in the peaceful resolution of the conflicts in the South Caucasus. This allows other geopolitical plays to undertake adequate steps. Russia's such actions make possible the access of military circles from other countries to our region, as any country will try to restore the violated military balance by other alternative ways.

Therefore, Azerbaijan and Georgia can search other variants of their security and try to distance from Georgia. This is not the first time when Georgia supplies Armenia with arms in a significant amount free of charge. In the 1990s late general Lev Rokhlin revealed the free supply of arms in the amount of $ 1 bln to Armenia. I think Ryussia must respond about its actions as they damage their mediation activity on the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict".

Deputy Asim Mollazade:

"It should be reminded that the issue of supply of arms in a greater amount of money from Russia to Armenia was discussed in the 1990s. Now they have transferred arms in the amount of $800,000,000, which proves that the aggressor is armed and therefore, less arms is supplied. I think that Azerbaijan must draw attention of the world community and international organizations so that to make it clear who is an aggressor and who is behind it all".

Deputy Jamil Hasanly:

"This fact can not be a surprize for us. I think that the country, which supplies Armenia with arms in the amount of $800 mln to Armenia, has no moral right to be one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group".

Deputy Gudrat Hasaquliyev:

"This fact proves once again that Russia continue to supply arms to the CIS state, which has been occupying a part of another CID country. This is another fact proving that earlier Russia acted the same way.

This proves that Russia does not support friendly relations with Azerbaijan, as it says, unilaterally supports Armenia and is not interested in the fair resolution of the Karabakh conflict. I think the Azerbaijani government must raise this issue in UN, OSCE, in particular in the OSCE Minsk Group".

It should be noted that due to the New Year vacations in the Russian embassy to Azerbaijan, Day.Az did not manage to learn comments of the Russian side about this issue.

/Day.Az/

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Has an officer shot an Azerbaijani army soldier dead? - UPDATED


10 January 2009 [12:25] - Today.Az
A soldier of Azerbaijani Army was killed in a military unit in the area of Terter.

12:25

ANS Press reports with reference to military commissar of the Siyazan region Shikar Maniyev that Camalov died due to the incautiousness of his fellow-in-arms.

According to Maniyev, he was reported about that by the representatives of the military unit, who delivered Camalov's body to Beshdam village of Siyazan.

The soldier, born in 1990, was recruitted in October of 2008.

"The accident occurred three days ago. He got a wound due to the incautiousness of his fellow. He was brought to Sarijaly hospital, yet doctors did not manage to save his life", said he.

------------
11:18

Day.Az reports with reference to ANS PRESS that according to Siyazan region Executive Power Vusal Yareli Jamalov drafted from Beshdan village of the region was shot down by an officer on January 8. Details of the incident are not available yet. Terter region Public Prosecutor’s office has launched criminal case on the fact.

/Day.Az/

URL: http://www.today.az/news/society/50036.html

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia denies receiving $800 mln worth of Russian arms
12/ 01/ 2009



YEREVAN, January 12 (RIA Novosti) - Armenia's Defense Ministry on Monday denied a report from Baku alleging that Russian arms had been handed over to Yerevan.

Azerbaijani media previously reported that arms worth a total of $800 million had been transferred to Armenia from a Russian military base in the country.

"That is yet another piece of disinformation by Azerbaijani propaganda. I don't think there is a need to comment on it," said the Armenian defense minister's press secretary, Col. Seiran Shakhsuvaryan.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said earlier on Monday that it was studying the report.

"As soon as the necessary information is obtained, the Foreign Ministry will formulate its position," said Elkhan Polukhov, first secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia became strained when Nagorny Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with a largely Armenian population, declared its independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia in 1988. The enclave has been a source of conflict ever since.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20090112/119438311.html

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

We will bring up Russia's hand-over of ammo to Armenia for discussions in OSCE PA session: MP
13.01.09 16:32 We will bring up Russia's hand-over of ammo to Armenia for discussions in OSCE PA session: MP

Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 13/ Trend News, K. Zarbaliyeva/

Azerbaijani members of parliament will bring up Nagorno-Karabakh during discussions at the winter session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Vienna.

“The Azerbaijani delegation will bring up Russia’s ammunition sales to Armenia at the session,” member of the Azerbaijani delegation to the OSCE Rabiyyat Aslanova told Trend News.

The winter session will be held on Feb. 19.

According to mass media reports, Russia sold the following ammo to Armenia: 21 units of T-22 tanks; 27 units of BMP-2; 12 units of APC 70/80; 5 BREM-2 war vehicles produced on basis of 5 BMP-1; four units of ZSU- 23-4 Shilka rockets; various Strela rockets; 875 boxes of F-1 and RQD grenades; 1,050 boxes of RKQ-3/3 EM grenades; 7,897 various packages of ammo (122 millimeters RS; 152 millimeters 2s3; 122 millimeters D-30); 120 units of QP-25 grenade launchers; 2, 846 units of 5.45-millimeter AK-74 and AKS-74 guns; 1,472 units of 7.62-millimeter AKM and AKMS guns; 103 units of NB-8 night vision equipment; various mines (TM 62 M/P; OZM-72; PMN); 14 units of BM-37 mine launchers; 9 Grads (RSZO 9K51 BM-21); 10 units of Akasia howitzers produced on the basis of the T-55 (SAU 152-millimeter 1S); 14 units of Gvozdika howitzers produced on the basis of the MT-LBU (SAU 122-millimeter 2 S1); 5 units of 100-millimeter Rapira cannons (MT-12r); and 210 units of 3 M9M3 Kub rockets.

Aslanova said although the agenda for the session has not yet been made public, Azerbaijani members of parliament will insist on holding broad discussions about international conflicts.

Armenia occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory – Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 surrounding regions.

The occupation began in 1988.

In 1992-93, Armenian armed forces occupied Shusha, Khojali and 7 regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement.

Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France and the U.S. – are holding peaceful negotiations.

http://news.trend.az/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1395955&lang=en

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military balance of Nagorno Karabakh

21 January 2009 [09:49] - Today.Az
By Alexander Jackson, Caucasian Review of International Affairs (www.cria-online.org), January 19, 2009.

In early January, a number of Azerbaijani news outlets reported that Russia had, throughout 2008, transferred an estimated $800 million worth of military hardware to Azerbaijan’s rival Armenia. The story is murky, but an Azeri media organisation received a list of equipment allegedly supplied, including tanks and armoured personnel carriers, grenade launchers, ammunition, and rockets. At the time of writing, the Russian response had been mixed: some carefully worded denials from the Foreign Ministry, promises of clarification from the Russian embassy in Baku, and stonewalling from the Defence Ministry. Russia’s overall approach has been moving towards denial, but the lack of an outright, immediate statement has inevitably fanned the flames of rumour. The Azerbaijani armed forces allegedly put their forces on high alert in response.

If the story is true, the implications could be significant. The peace process over Nagorno-Karabakh is in an extremely delicate phase, and Russia has recently gone to great lengths to depict itself as an impartial mediator. Any truth in the arms transfer rumours would destroy Moscow’s reputation as an honest broker and undo much of the tentative progress that has been recently achieved.

The military implications are also significant, since the size of the transfer would go some way towards redressing the huge growth in Azerbaijan’s armed forces in recent years. Precise, up-to-date figures are very difficult to come by, given the opaque nature of both countries’ defence sectors, the difficulties of gathering information on Armenian forces in Karabakh, and the rapid expansion of armed forces. But most independent estimates give Azerbaijan the quantitative edge over Armenia, particularly in terms of heavy equipment.

A far more significant factor, and arguably a key reason for the lack of major combat since 1994, is the topography of the Karabakh region. The ceasefire line currently runs through rugged, mountainous terrain topped with multiple defensive lines which would favour the Armenian side in any war launched by Baku. Azerbaijan’s purchase of 25 Su-25 ground attack aircraft from Georgia and unmanned aerial vehicles from Israel should be seen in this context: as an attempt to maintain air superiority and therefore compensate for the difficulties of ground artillery in such terrain. Turkey has also offered to upgrade the Azerbaijani air force, alongside its other assistance in the fields of education and technical support.

The Russian 102nd Army base in Armenia has played a huge role in assisting and upgrading Armenia’s military so far. The base’s inventory of hardware was boosted in 2005 when Russia closed its bases in Georgia and transferred 370 pieces of equipment to the 102nd base. The forces at the base are militarily very significant: 74 tanks, 224 armoured combat vehicles, 60 towed artillery systems, 14 aircraft and the advanced S-300 missile system. Although the limited number of Russian personnel there would prohibit a large-scale deployment of this equipment, it is possible that the 102nd would, in the event of war, ‘lend’ the equipment to Armenia’s armed forces under the terms of the Russo-Armenian military alliance. There are also estimated to be huge – relative to the territory’s size – number of tanks and other pieces of hardware within Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions. This allows Armenia to circumvent its restrictions on such equipment under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, although it has accused Azerbaijan of doing the same.

Georgia has a critical and often under-realised role in any potential conflict for a number of reasons. Firstly, in the aftermath of the August war it suspended most Russian flights over Georgian territory to the 102nd base, preventing the base from receiving critical military supplies: therefore the figures given for the Russian base should be taken with a pinch of salt. More broadly, as military analyst Roger McDermott notes, the transfer of any equipment from northern states such as Ukraine to Armenia could be blocked by Georgia, since they would have to be shipped through Georgian territory from a Black Sea port, although such a deal was confirmed in November.

Secondly, and related to this, Tbilisi will have to make a clear and difficult choice in any renewed war between Baku and Yerevan. Georgia has no interest in spoiling its ties with Yerevan, and has expressed interest in defence co-operation (for instance, on upgrading Armenian tanks in a Georgian plant). But these links cause friction with Azerbaijan, with whom Georgia has a close economic and political relationship. Georgia relies on Azerbaijan for its own gas supplies and for the transit of Azeri gas and oil through the BTC and BTE pipelines, which bring in vital transit fees for Georgia’s struggling economy. Supporting Armenia could lead Baku (in the name of ‘energy security’) to re-route its gas and oil flows through Russia. It therefore seems likely that Georgia would support Azerbaijan, perhaps closing its border with Armenia and leaving the country almost entirely isolated from the outside world.

Even if the rumours of the $800 million arms transfers are false, the Karabakh conflict is incredibly volatile. The military balance between the two sides remains difficult to assess, but its uncertain nature, along with the peace process, has managed to prevent either side from reigniting a major conflict. If Russia really has shipped such a quantity of equipment to Armenia, the prospects for peace are grim. This would raise tensions on the ground and give further weight to hawks in the Azeri defence forces who argue that Azerbaijan’s military is sufficient, and that Baku should strike now to liberate the occupied territories before Armenia can reinforce itself any further. Perhaps even more disastrously, the transfer would fatally damage Moscow’s reputation as an honest broker and would remove the constraining brake of the peace process from a highly dangerous arms race. Nobody – Azerbaijan, Russia, or Armenia - would benefit.

/www.cria-online.org/

URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/50191.html