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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
Good post Joseph. You summed it up pretty well.
Originally posted by Joseph
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Agree 100%
1.) The Armenians will be on the defensive which means the Azeris will have to mount a major, multi- front offensive. They will need to vastly outnumber the Armenian troops in terms of soldiers, tanks, etc. The Georgians tried this against the vastly outnumbered/outgunned Ossets and after some initial success, due mostly to the element of surprise, were bogged down long enough for reinforcements to arrive...and we know how that ended. The Azeris will mostly be at the disadvantage, their only advantage is the element of surprise but then again this is not gong to be much of an advantage for them. The problem for them exists that the Armenians are better experiecend, trained, equipped and manned than other military formations in the Caucasus. additionally, they hold the high ground and can easily view Azeri operations/ troop movements, across the line. On paper, the Azeris might appear stronger but in reality, when combines the forces of Armenia and Artsakh, the Azeris have only a slight edge in troops, equipments, etc. Until the Azeris actualy fight successfull instead of making threats, they are only paper tigers.
2) If the Azeris are able to breach the initial line of defense, {which will be costly in terms of casualties}, they will still have to cross 2 additional lines which are even more heavily fortified, clear mines, and be able to absorb a massive artillery onslaught for which they will be in the middle of a coordinated trajectory that has been mapped and covered by howitzers, katyushas, strellas, mortars, etc.
3) if they somehow succede, they will then be bogged down in a mountainous guerrilla war that will ultimately defeat them. The Armenians forces in the region were able to fight successfully this way against combined Azeri-Omon/ Soviet forces prior to the organization of their military with but a handful of dedicated men. It should also be noted that in some areas of Artsakh, tanks are ineffective. Nor will the Azeris be able to bolster their supply lines in such a mountainous area with good cover.
4) The Azeri will be racing against the clock; if they are to miraculously succesful, they will need to achieve this not in months or weeks but in mere days. The Armenians will be reinforced almost immediately from Armenia proper.
It should also be noted:
-While the Azeris have been beefing up their military and material, so have the Armenians. Armenia and Artsakh are not resting on their laurels. Russia recently provided and extra billion in equipment, ammo, etc and Armenia has been procuring equipment from various states, not just Russia, at low prices. They have also stockpiled enough fuel and ammo to fight for many months. The last war was a learning experience for the Armenians and they will not forget those lessons in terms of tactics, supply lines, logisitics, etc.
If the Azeris have a larger airforce, the Armenians counter with a highly-tuned anti-aircraft system. It was true during the first war and true today. As everyday passes, air-power grow more obsolete. The latest anti-aircraft weapons are highly effective and much cheaper to purchase and maintain. The Azeris lost dozens of aircraft during the first war.
- The Armenian military is far more effective, professional and organized that the first war. They are lead by experienced and successful veterans. Though brash and xxxxy, they are being educated by men with real know-how. This in invaluable.
- Again, the Armenians will be fighting a defensive war which means they will absorb attacks and inflict damage on the enemy which is easier than coordinating an an attack. The Armenians only need to stand firm.
- The Armenians backs will be against the wall if attacked they will have higher morale. Losing will not be a option. In some cases, their families only live a few kilometers from the front.
- If the Azeris attack, investors, business, etc will flee. The war will be bad for everyone in terms of human loss, economy, etc but the Azeris have much more to lose. Not only that, the BTC pipeline will be destroyed, I can guarnatee. Remember, this is in Russia's interest too.
-It is highly likely that if the Azeris attacked they will be defeated and suffer high battle casualties which will result in a demoralized military, disorganization, etc. Then they are open for an Armenian counterattack. This happened during the first war. You can forget Turks helping the Azeris, Russia thwarts that threat and their are no longer any significant Chechen forces left to help the Azeris this time. Nor will the Afghan mujaheddin lend a hand this time, they are bogged down against the US and were also totally ineffective against the Armenians in the first war{ as were the Chechens}.
If helter-skelter occurs and the Azeris are somehow manage to subjugate Artsakh, the Armenians have one more trump card up their sleeve and I do believe the Azeri high brass, president know about this but are loathe to say anything......
1.) The Armenians will be on the defensive which means the Azeris will have to mount a major, multi- front offensive. They will need to vastly outnumber the Armenian troops in terms of soldiers, tanks, etc. The Georgians tried this against the vastly outnumbered/outgunned Ossets and after some initial success, due mostly to the element of surprise, were bogged down long enough for reinforcements to arrive...and we know how that ended. The Azeris will mostly be at the disadvantage, their only advantage is the element of surprise but then again this is not gong to be much of an advantage for them. The problem for them exists that the Armenians are better experiecend, trained, equipped and manned than other military formations in the Caucasus. additionally, they hold the high ground and can easily view Azeri operations/ troop movements, across the line. On paper, the Azeris might appear stronger but in reality, when combines the forces of Armenia and Artsakh, the Azeris have only a slight edge in troops, equipments, etc. Until the Azeris actualy fight successfull instead of making threats, they are only paper tigers.
2) If the Azeris are able to breach the initial line of defense, {which will be costly in terms of casualties}, they will still have to cross 2 additional lines which are even more heavily fortified, clear mines, and be able to absorb a massive artillery onslaught for which they will be in the middle of a coordinated trajectory that has been mapped and covered by howitzers, katyushas, strellas, mortars, etc.
3) if they somehow succede, they will then be bogged down in a mountainous guerrilla war that will ultimately defeat them. The Armenians forces in the region were able to fight successfully this way against combined Azeri-Omon/ Soviet forces prior to the organization of their military with but a handful of dedicated men. It should also be noted that in some areas of Artsakh, tanks are ineffective. Nor will the Azeris be able to bolster their supply lines in such a mountainous area with good cover.
4) The Azeri will be racing against the clock; if they are to miraculously succesful, they will need to achieve this not in months or weeks but in mere days. The Armenians will be reinforced almost immediately from Armenia proper.
It should also be noted:
-While the Azeris have been beefing up their military and material, so have the Armenians. Armenia and Artsakh are not resting on their laurels. Russia recently provided and extra billion in equipment, ammo, etc and Armenia has been procuring equipment from various states, not just Russia, at low prices. They have also stockpiled enough fuel and ammo to fight for many months. The last war was a learning experience for the Armenians and they will not forget those lessons in terms of tactics, supply lines, logisitics, etc.
If the Azeris have a larger airforce, the Armenians counter with a highly-tuned anti-aircraft system. It was true during the first war and true today. As everyday passes, air-power grow more obsolete. The latest anti-aircraft weapons are highly effective and much cheaper to purchase and maintain. The Azeris lost dozens of aircraft during the first war.
- The Armenian military is far more effective, professional and organized that the first war. They are lead by experienced and successful veterans. Though brash and xxxxy, they are being educated by men with real know-how. This in invaluable.
- Again, the Armenians will be fighting a defensive war which means they will absorb attacks and inflict damage on the enemy which is easier than coordinating an an attack. The Armenians only need to stand firm.
- The Armenians backs will be against the wall if attacked they will have higher morale. Losing will not be a option. In some cases, their families only live a few kilometers from the front.
- If the Azeris attack, investors, business, etc will flee. The war will be bad for everyone in terms of human loss, economy, etc but the Azeris have much more to lose. Not only that, the BTC pipeline will be destroyed, I can guarnatee. Remember, this is in Russia's interest too.
-It is highly likely that if the Azeris attacked they will be defeated and suffer high battle casualties which will result in a demoralized military, disorganization, etc. Then they are open for an Armenian counterattack. This happened during the first war. You can forget Turks helping the Azeris, Russia thwarts that threat and their are no longer any significant Chechen forces left to help the Azeris this time. Nor will the Afghan mujaheddin lend a hand this time, they are bogged down against the US and were also totally ineffective against the Armenians in the first war{ as were the Chechens}.
If helter-skelter occurs and the Azeris are somehow manage to subjugate Artsakh, the Armenians have one more trump card up their sleeve and I do believe the Azeri high brass, president know about this but are loathe to say anything......
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