Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mokum]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

an F-16 costs about 7k $ in one fly-hour. so given 150 hours a year, that's 1 050 000$ for one F-16. for 24 F16s, that's 25 200 000 $.
Mig-29 is cheaper, so i'd not say it's impossible for armenia to maintain a couple of squadrons.
Only problem i'd see is actually buying the refurbished planes, which is why i'm saying it'd be ideal to wait for russians to get bored of Mig-29's at erebuni.
just my 2cents.

It's not impossible but, if for example, a war starts, the flying hours will increase (so more costs) and what to think about the weapons, to make sure every Mig-29's is fully equipped after every mission is very expensive. (on a budget for the whole army of $ 400 million. ) The problem is indeed buy these planes and keep them up to date to todays standard. It would be great if we will receive those Mig-29's from the Russians at Erebuni but we must be aware of the fact that this Mig-29's probabley will be old/outdated. I'm not sure about the status of those Mig-29's at this moment, when did they received any updates? Nevertheless, updated or not a Mig-29 in Armenia hands will for sure make some great damage within the Azer forces.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It's not impossible but, if for example, a war starts, the flying hours will increase (so more costs) and what to think about the weapons, to make sure every Mig-29's is fully equipped after every mission is very expensive. (on a budget for the whole army of $ 400 million. ) The problem is indeed buy these planes and keep them up to date to todays standard. It would be great if we will receive those Mig-29's from the Russians at Erebuni but we must be aware of the fact that this Mig-29's probabley will be old/outdated. I'm not sure about the status of those Mig-29's at this moment, when did they received any updates? Nevertheless, updated or not a Mig-29 in Armenia hands will for sure make some great damage within the Azer forces.

well, all countries have weapons cache, no sane country goes to war without it. Also, In the mentioned above price includes service, logistics, personnel expenses, weapons etc.
And in the case of war , Azerbaijan will use its strategic oil fund to buy more toys. We don't have such a thing, so it will be either russians supplying us, or diaspora money/plus whatever we got.
the question is how long can armenia fight a war? 1, 2, 3 years?

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012

[Hovo]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

y Karabakh didnt show the two Su-25's ? and yh we dont even know about the ceiling endurance or any other specification of the new UAV's.

[Vahram]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

"y Karabakh didnt show the two Su-25's ? and yh we dont even know about the ceiling endurance or any other specification of the new UAV's. "

Armenia had scuds for years, they did not show it

I am not worried as this time around more equipment in depth and breath, how about those UAVs? Shows how stupid that baboons are, they can't make anything of their own! What I seen is a potent force, a younger force that has learned from the best! They now are the best, you know how much firepower they have more tanks per capita then anyone else! This is not a joke for a small people.

First time around not only did they fight with shutguns and slingshots they also fought against the USSR front line troops. You know what a feat that was? We had no help from anyone! I mean anyone! Who was going to support a bunch of Armo's going up against the USSR? America was too busy making movies in Hollywood about rouge Russian KGB generals, too scared to help as this would be WWIII. Here we have a bunch of farmers going up against Afgans, Chechens, Russian front line troops and the babboons...

They all thought and acted just like 1915! Yet this time around we knew what the game was all about! So feck them!

Eurovision...LOL What kind of bullsheet world is this? We give an award to a toork mongol mofo without any democracy yet Syria should be democratic. All of the Eurozone and the US is full of sheet! And the Yahoodi is the ring leader!

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

An old and good one , time passes guys and im drinking my moheto

Azerbaijan's Chances in the Karabakh Conflict

WEB PERSPECTIVES ECON ASIA PACIFIC
By Alec Rasizade | January 18, 2011 | 4:48 PM
Petroleum production provides 85 percent of Azerbaijan's state budget revenues, accounts for 78 percent of the country's GDP and 92 percent of Azerbaijan's export. In other words, Azerbaijan completely depends on oil revenue in its standoff against Armenia, in military expenditures, in the food import-based welfare of its populace, and in ensuing political stability. The lion's share of oil revenue is provided by one single cluster of three offshore oil fields, Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, discovered before Azerbaijan’s independence by Soviet geologists in the Caspian Sea. These three platforms presently supply 42 million of Azerbaijan's 50 million tons of annual oil production. Since then, 23 exploration contracts signed with foreign oil companies have failed to find any new oil deposit in Azerbaijan and its sector of the Caspian Sea.
Therefore, any speculation about Azerbaijan's prospects, both domestically and in Karabakh, is made simple by the country's complete dependence on these three oil fields: with their inevitable depletion Azerbaijan's economic strength will attenuate, which will in turn diminish its chances of resolving the Karabakh issue by force. The reserves of these fields are a state secret in Azerbaijan, but numerous foreign oil industry sources give evidence that, at the current rate of extraction, the three main fields will be depleted by 2019.

The End of Oil Boom


In 1992 the oil deposits of Azerbaijan were estimated at 7 billion barrels, 5 billion of which were under the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli cluster. The total Caspian Sea reserves, including Kazakhstan, which possesses 80 percent of Caspian oil, were around 25 billion barrels. Since then, nothing new has been found in the Azeri sector of the sea, while the giant Kashagan oil field was discovered in the Kazakh sector. Suppose that during the 16 years since the signing of concession, the Consortium has been pumping half a million barrels of oil per day on average, i.e. 182 million barrels per year. (In fact, since 2005 the daily output has been 1 million barrels). Multiply that number by 16 years and it is evident that from its total stock of 7 billion barrels Azerbaijan has already pumped out about 3 billion, leaving only 4 billion barrels of oil.
Now generously presume the remains of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli to be 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion) and divide that by 365 million barrels a year: the resulting estimate gives only nine more years of production at one million barrels per day (which the Consortium plans to increase up to 1.2 million per day). Thus, it is easy to calculate the end of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in the year 2019. Given that 2010 was the peak year of Azeri oil production, the descent begins as of 2011. (The IMF predicts the beginning of descent in 2012). Of course, the output will not stop immediately, but its reduction by 10 percent a year will be a severe blow to this petrostate.
This is only my generous calculation; the real decline may be even steeper because Azeri officials routinely inflate their oil assets, which are mysteriously increasing instead of decreasing, in spite of the one million barrels pumped out daily. According to them, Azerbaijan's oil reserves rose last year to 923 million tons, an equivalent of 6.7 billion barrels. In other words, the stock of oil in Azerbaijan, after 18 years of extraction and no new discovery made, has declined by only 300 million barrels, which is Azerbaijan's production in one year. Where the output in the remaining 17 years has vanished to is unknown.
This same kind of overstatement pertains to Azerbaijan's natural gas resources, which the officials hope will replace the dwindling oil revenues. Gas reserves, however, are insignificant: Azerbaijan currently exports only 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Turkey, hoping that the annual production from its Shahdenis gas field will double in the future, compared to the annual export of 70 bcm of Turkmen gas, 46 bcm from Iran and 350 bcm from Russia. Even gas-thirsty Ukraine, which is entangled in a gas-import dispute with Russia, produces 20 bcm of its own gas, compared to the 15 bcm produced in Azerbaijan, of which 10 bcm


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http://hir.harvard.edu/azerbaijans-chances-in-the-karabakh-conflict?page=0,1