Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

i think we need less than 24 hours to capture that 9km border..after that naxichevan will be ours in a few months.

The problem is not the 9km border but the agreements that Russia and Turkey have regarding Naxichevan. It will be easier to capture Baku than it will be to capture Nakhijevan. Attacking Nakhijevan will unleash WWIII, because Turkey and Russia will both come into play from day one and both will bring their allies to the party.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The problem is not the 9km border but the agreements that Russia and Turkey have regarding Naxichevan. It will be easier to capture Baku than it will be to capture Nakhijevan. Attacking Nakhijevan will unleash WWIII, because Turkey and Russia will both come into play from day one and both will bring their allies to the party.

There is an agreement unfortunately between Russia and Turkey regarding Nakhijevan which enables Turkey to have some oversite over the region. If I recall, there was some fighting in Nakhijevan in 1991 through early 1992 and I believe Armenian forces took some strategic hills- they may hold these still. This was after Azeri forces were shelling areas of Syunik, the Armenians countered. The Turks threatened to invade Armenia and both Russia and Turkey urged Ter-Petrossian to prevent further incursions. LTP complied at the behest of the Russians. Also, Aliyev Sr. was the head of the Nakhijevan Oblast at the time and brokered his own deal with LTP to stop any violence from his side if the Armenians would agree to a ceasefire. It more or less remained in effect during the war.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The problem is not the 9km border but the agreements that Russia and Turkey have regarding Naxichevan. It will be easier to capture Baku than it will be to capture Nakhijevan. Attacking Nakhijevan will unleash WWIII, because Turkey and Russia will both come into play from day one and both will bring their allies to the party.

NATO will go to war with russia over turkey? hardly.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

NATO will go to war with russia over turkey? hardly.

Agreed, NATOs biggest nightmare is engaging Russia.

Personally, I do not believe that Turkey woudl risk conflict with Russia over the liberation of Nackchivan. Given the small amount of money and infrastructure development that the Aliyev administration has given that region, I doubt that even Azerbaijan cares about it that much (except to the extent that they do not want Armenia to have it). If that kind of attitude prevails, than the scenario will be exactly the same as it was 20 years ago in case of conflit: Armenian perseverence and willpower will triumph over Azeri apathy.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Agreed, NATOs biggest nightmare is engaging Russia.

Personally, I do not believe that Turkey woudl risk conflict with Russia over the liberation of Nackchivan. Given the small amount of money and infrastructure development that the Aliyev administration has given that region, I doubt that even Azerbaijan cares about it that much (except to the extent that they do not want Armenia to have it). If that kind of attitude prevails, than the scenario will be exactly the same as it was 20 years ago in case of conflit: Armenian perseverence and willpower will triumph over Azeri apathy.

well if NATO xxxxxxxs and turks want to give their lifes over nakhichevan then they're welcome too, we surely wont hesitate, we know it's our historical lands. we'd gladly die for it.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

well if NATO xxxxxxxs and turks want to give their lifes over nakhichevan then they're welcome too, we surely wont hesitate, we know it's our historical lands. we'd gladly die for it.

You're right of course, but I think we would both agree it would be better if Turkey did not get involved.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

NATO will go to war with russia over turkey? hardly.

Not unless Russia attacked Turkey. Turkey and Russia have a huge trade turnover and lukewarm political relations. Russia has also been able to out-manuever Turkey politically and muddy their relations with NATO so chances are Russia would be pissed if the Armenian side attacked Nakhijevan. Despite the fact that Iran and Azerbaijan have bad relations, Iran would not be to thrilled either.

I'm all for Armenia getting its land back but any more efforts toward this will be a disaster. For the most part Artsakh is now increasingly considered de facto part of Armenia and I believe will be considered part of Armenia formally at some point and should the Azeris attack and Armenians take more land in a counterattack it will probably not be frowned upon by the civilized world. However, going on any type of offensive (such as taking Nakhijevan) on the other hand will have negative results for Armenia.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Also not to forget that unlike Artsakh and Javakhk, Nakhichevan's Armenian population is 0. We won't have a local resistance that would make it militarily easier and politically more acceptable to hold the territory.