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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
ENCLAVE DISPUTE THREATENS FUTURE OF GAS PROJECT
By Isabel Gorst
April 18 2011
Moscow
A bitter territorial dispute with neighbouring Armenia could scupper
Azerbaijan's plans to build new pipelines to the west and supply gas
to Europe.
Azerbaijan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed enclave with
a largely Armenian population, during a violent war with its neighbour
that began in 1988 as Soviet authority waned.
A ceasefire in 1994 left Nagorno-Karabakh with de facto independence,
guarded by Armenian troops, but its final status has never been
resolved. Although the dispute is categorised as a "frozen conflict",
troops frequently exchange fire across a "line of contact", claiming
dozens of lives every year.
In the past two years, Azerbaijan has begun investing its oil and gas
revenues in weapons and threatening to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh by
force. Last year, the country spent some $3bn on its armed forces,
more than Armenia's entire national budget.
But diplomats in Baku say Azerbaijan would probably lose any war to
take back the lost territories. Armenia has had 20 years to fortify its
positions and it also benefits from close military ties with Russia.
French, Russian and US diplomats forming the "Minsk Group" have been
trying to mediate a settlement for 17 years, but neither Azerbaijan
nor Armenia has been ready to compromise.
In both countries, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has become a political
tool, used to unite society and distract attention from domestic
problems.
Russia has recently increased efforts to build more influence in the
Caucasus and prevent frozen conflicts from erupting.
[Which?] Analysts believe Moscow may exert pressure on Armenia, where
it maintains a military base, to compromise over Nagorno-Karabakh as
it courts Azerbaijan for gas supplies.
However, Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute,
said Azerbaijan was unlikely to risk its reputation and oil assets
by going to war.
"War would not resolve anything. A lot of people would be killed and
the political risk for Azerbaijan would be enormous. All oil projects
and pipelines would be put at risk," he said.
ENCLAVE DISPUTE THREATENS FUTURE OF GAS PROJECT
By Isabel Gorst
April 18 2011
Moscow
A bitter territorial dispute with neighbouring Armenia could scupper
Azerbaijan's plans to build new pipelines to the west and supply gas
to Europe.
Azerbaijan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed enclave with
a largely Armenian population, during a violent war with its neighbour
that began in 1988 as Soviet authority waned.
A ceasefire in 1994 left Nagorno-Karabakh with de facto independence,
guarded by Armenian troops, but its final status has never been
resolved. Although the dispute is categorised as a "frozen conflict",
troops frequently exchange fire across a "line of contact", claiming
dozens of lives every year.
In the past two years, Azerbaijan has begun investing its oil and gas
revenues in weapons and threatening to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh by
force. Last year, the country spent some $3bn on its armed forces,
more than Armenia's entire national budget.
But diplomats in Baku say Azerbaijan would probably lose any war to
take back the lost territories. Armenia has had 20 years to fortify its
positions and it also benefits from close military ties with Russia.
French, Russian and US diplomats forming the "Minsk Group" have been
trying to mediate a settlement for 17 years, but neither Azerbaijan
nor Armenia has been ready to compromise.
In both countries, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has become a political
tool, used to unite society and distract attention from domestic
problems.
Russia has recently increased efforts to build more influence in the
Caucasus and prevent frozen conflicts from erupting.
[Which?] Analysts believe Moscow may exert pressure on Armenia, where
it maintains a military base, to compromise over Nagorno-Karabakh as
it courts Azerbaijan for gas supplies.
However, Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute,
said Azerbaijan was unlikely to risk its reputation and oil assets
by going to war.
"War would not resolve anything. A lot of people would be killed and
the political risk for Azerbaijan would be enormous. All oil projects
and pipelines would be put at risk," he said.
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