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Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

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  • Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

    Eastern Europe's Frozen Conflicts Look To Kosovo Ruling

    July 23, 2010
    By Charles Recknagel

    The International Court of Justice's (ICJ) ruling that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia was legal is of direct interest to other countries with secession crises or frozen conflicts.

    The ICJ has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo.

    That essentially means the justices do not want it to stand as a precedent for the world's many other places where regions have seceded or want to secede from their home countries.

    But as the instant reaction of many governments to the July 22 decision makes clear, the court's ruling is being regarded -- rightly or wrongly -- in more universal terms. And nowhere more so than by parties involved in secession crises or frozen conflicts themselves.

    'Guidance' For Bosnia's Serbs

    Among the first to react to the court's ruling affirming Kosovo's 2008 unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia was the leader of Bosnia-Herzegovina's Serbian entity, the Republika Srpska.

    Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik (file photo)
    Prime Minister Milorad Dodik suggested that if Kosovo's secession from Serbia did not violate international law, then the same standard should be applied to the Bosnian Serb entity's long-standing desire to leave Bosnia.

    "For a long time, we in the Republika Srpska have not been happy in Bosnia-Herzegovina," Dodik told reporters in Banja Luka late on July 22.

    "We respect the Dayton agreement [that ended the war in Bosnia], but the ICJ decision can serve us as guidance for our continuing fight over our status and our future."

    Haris Silajdzic, a Bosniak who is the chairman of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, immediately responded that the country's borders were immutable.

    "Any attempt at disintegration will be prevented, as it was the last time," he added.

    The Serbian entity has never made a secret of its aspiration to join Serbia proper, a desire that directly contributed to the four-year war in Bosnia. The war ended after the intervention of NATO with the Dayton peace agreement in 1995 creating Bosnia as a federation of Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats.

    Legal Limbo

    Dodik's regarding the ICJ ruling as "guidance" for the future may be a measure of how much secessionist movements will regard the ruling as vindicating their efforts -- despite the court's own deliberately narrow interpretation.

    A woman walks past graffiti reading "Kosovo is the heart of Serbia" in Belgrade.
    The ICJ ruled that international law contained no "prohibition on declarations of independence" and so Kosovo's declaration "did not violate international law."

    But the court avoided ruling on whether Kosovo's statehood was legal under international law, leaving the decision on whether to recognize the territory's independence to individual countries.

    Thus far, 69 countries have recognized Kosovo's independence, including the United States and many European Union members.

    Several major powers -- including Russia, China, and Spain -- concerned about secessionist regions of their own, have not recognized Kosovo.

    No Change In Transdniester

    In Moldova, officials of the breakaway Transdniester region have yet to comment publicly on the ICJ's decision.

    But top advisers to Moldova's government say the ruling will not change any of the main players' views of the crisis, including those of Transdniester's main backer, Russia.

    "On the Transdniester side, we all know what their statements over the last 18 years have been [demanding full independence], so I don't see how the ICJ decision could change that," says Nicu Popescu, a foreign-policy adviser to Moldova's Prime Minister Vlad Filat.

    "As for Russia's statements and policies, Russia has constantly supported Moldova's territorial integrity and I'm absolutely sure that this stance will continue, and there's no reason at all why Russia's support for Moldova's territorial integrity should change."

    The predominantly Russian-speaking population of Transdniester attempted in 1990 to secede from Moldova and since then has maintained a separate but unrecognized government with Moscow's support.

    Georgian Stalemate

    The Georgian government, which has lost two regions to secessionist movements backed by Moscow, also sees the court decision as doing little to change the status of its frozen conflicts.

    "I think the decision probably will be used by regimes that are encouraging such kinds of small separatist regions," explains Kote Kublashvili, the chairman of Georgia's Supreme Court.

    "Because prior to the decision, those regimes already used the situation very well and officially declared that [the Kosovo] case will affect other would-be-recognized separatist regions. Today's decision and those which have been made before [regarding recognition of Kosovo] will be widely debated first in terms the legal but also the political point of view."

    South Ossetia fought a war of secession from Georgia in 1991-92, and Abkhazia did the same in 1992-93. Both have been recognized as independent by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru -- but no other countries -- in the wake of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

    Leading figures in the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia say they are encouraged by the court's ruling.

    "The fact that Kosovo has been recognized in accordance with international law can be seen as a definitive precedent for Abkhazia, and I think it will serve as an important precedent for Abkhazia," says Irakly Khintba, a Sukhumi-based political analyst.

    "I'm not saying that Abkhazia will be recognized simply because it recognized Kosovo. But it is a serious political and historic step [for Abkhazia], that demonstrates that, in the current political environment, it is possible to recognize a state in spite of the will of the 'master state' that it is trying to separate from."

    The deputy speaker of South Ossetia's parliament, Valery Dzitsoity, says he regards Pristina's situation as directly comparable to Tskhinvali's. "And moreover, I believe that South Ossetia has more of a foundation to expect recognition of its independence from the West than Kosovo," he adds.

    Dzitsoity says that this is because "South Ossetia declared its independence at a time [September 1990] when Georgia was only recognized by Ukraine and was not a member of the UN. And Kosovo is separating from an internationally recognized state and a member of the UN."

    No Agreement In Nagorno-Karabakh

    Yet another frozen conflict whose parties may look to the ruling is Nagorno-Karabakh, the predominantly ethnic Armenian region that broke away from Azerbaijan following the breakup of the Soviet Union.

    The head of the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation parliamentary faction, Vahan Hovhannisian, hailed the ICJ ruling.

    "The judgment clearly states that a unilateral proclamation of independence cannot be viewed as unlawful. For this, of course, there should be prerequisites, and Karabakh has at least the same prerequisites as Kosovo, if not more," Hovhannisian said.

    "It means that now we get a new instrument, a new opportunity to struggle for the international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic."

    But Baku says it does not consider the Kosovo ruling pertinent to the Karabakh conflict.

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Elxan Poluxov told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service that Azerbaijan believed the ICJ's decision applied "only to Kosovo."

    "Conflicts differ and there is no single solution for all conflicts," Poluxov added. "We don't see that the decision may somehow affect the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and negotiations on this conflict should have their own format."

    Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh fought a war of secession from Azerbaijan in 1991-94, backed by Yerevan.

    Most of the region of Nagorno Karabakh today is governed by the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic, while the territory remains internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.


    RFE/RL's Armenian, Azerbaijani, Balkan, Georgian, and Moldovan services contributed to this report, as did RFE/RL's Echo of the Caucasus

    While the International Court of Justice says has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo, the ruling is being regarded in more universal terms. And nowhere more so than by parties involved in secession crises or frozen conflicts themselves.

  • #2
    Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

    It will only have a positive ruling when our diplomats will make the fullest use of it and play the game smart, something our foreign ministry has neglected multiple times on a number of other issues.

    The ruling could be positive, but we know the West is biased and will say the Nagorno-Karabakh is some kind of exception, even though we deserve independence more than Kosovo.

    1. Nagorno-Karabakh has always had an Armenian population from history till present (historical Kosovo was a Serbian territory, with a Serbian majority, in fact, one of the centers of Serbian culture).
    2. Nagorno-Karabakh has been independent and has belonged to the Armenian state in the history (Kosovo has never been independent nor belonged to any Albanian state).
    3. Nagorno-Karabakh is full of thousands of Armenian monuments and is without a doubt one of the centers of Armenian culture (Kosovo is full of hundreds of Serbian churches and other monuments).

    The world is biased.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

      'The ICJ has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo.

      That essentially means the justices do not want it to stand as a precedent for the world's many other places where regions have seceded or want to secede from their home countries.'

      This statement represesents the hypocracy of this court. Such a institution deserves no respect and its decisions are meaningless.
      Hayastan or Bust.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

        You have said it very well, the world is full of double-standards. The Kosovo ruling will be of use only when Armenia plays the game well. What could be done, for instance, is to recognize Karabakh's independence...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

          Karabakh Armenians Buoyed By Kosovo ‘Precedent’

          26.07.2010
          Lusine Musayelian

          Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian leadership has joined official Yerevan in welcoming a United Nations court ruling that upheld the international legitimacy of Kosovo’s secession from Serbia and affirming its applicability to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

          Bako Sahakian, the president of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), described the non-binding ruling handed down by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as an “important event” at a rare news conference in Stepanakert late on Friday. He said it will create a “new political situation” in the Karabakh conflict zone.

          “That decision has an extremely important legal, political and moral significance and sets a precedent that can not be confined to Kosovo,” the NKR Foreign Ministry said in a statement issued the next day. It said Karabakh’s predominantly Armenian population broke away from Azerbaijani rule “in full compliance with the basic principles of international law” and is therefore also entitled to international recognition.

          A similar statement was also adopted by Karabakh’s three main political parties. All of them are represented in the local parliament and government.

          Armenia hailed the ICJ judgment shortly after its announcement on Thursday evening. Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian said The Hague-based court ruled that peoples’ self-determination should take precedence over territorial integrity of states in the resolution of territorial or ethnic disputes.

          The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry insisted on Friday, however, that the ICJ ruling applies only to Kosovo and Serbia and can not have any repercussions for the Karabakh conflict -- a view essentially shared by the United States.

          “Anyone who reads the ruling will see that this was a specific judgment based on facts unique to Kosovo,” U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said on Friday. “We certainly don’t think it applies to other circumstances.”

          Sahakian made clear that the authorities in Stepanakert will not press Yerevan to formally recognize the NKR as an independent state after the ICJ ruling. “After all, Armenia bears responsibility before the international community, and you can’t blame Armenia’s political leaders for not recognizing the NKR’s independence,” he said. “In this regard, we have never expressed our discontent with Armenia’s leadership.”

          “We believe that sooner or later we will approach [the launch of] a recognition process by Armenia,” added the Karabakh leader.

          Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian leadership has joined official Yerevan in welcoming a United Nations court ruling that upheld the international legitimacy of Kosovo’s secession from Serbia and affirming its applicability to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
          Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

            Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
            'The ICJ has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo.

            That essentially means the justices do not want it to stand as a precedent for the world's many other places where regions have seceded or want to secede from their home countries.'

            This statement represesents the hypocracy of this court. Such a institution deserves no respect and its decisions are meaningless.
            Who says "'The ICJ has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo"? Some journalists? Some official? There is no such statement, not even a similar use of the word "unique", in the summary here: http://www.webcitation.org/5rRBA3MtY

            It isn't a "ruling", it is an opinion. And in reaching that opinion, the judges make quite extensive use of precedents and past custom. And they state quite clearly that "the Court considers that general international law contains no
            applicable prohibition of declarations of independence. Accordingly, it concludes that the declaration of independence of 17 February 2008 did not violate general international law."
            And it says that international recognition of a declaration of independence is a political matter, not a legal one.

            The latter could be arguable, if a non-recognition promotes or creates a situation leading to genocide. That could make it (the non-recognition) a crime under international law since to encourage a genocide is as much a crime as to actually commit it. To allow Azerbaijan to regain Nagorno Karabakh would allow a genocide to take place. What theories (apart from the stupidity one) can explain the inexplicable reluctance of Armenians to pursue this line? Stupidity doesn't explain it all, since Armenian state officials actively tries to supress examples of Azerbaijan's genocidal policies and the genocidal nature of its society.
            Last edited by bell-the-cat; 07-28-2010, 10:31 PM.
            Plenipotentiary meow!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

              Originally posted by bell-the-cat View Post
              Who says "'The ICJ has said its ruling approving Kosovo's declaration of independence is unique to Kosovo"? Some journalists? Some official? There is no such statement, not even a similar use of the word "unique", in the summary here: http://www.webcitation.org/5rRBA3MtY

              It isn't a "ruling", it is an opinion. And in reaching that opinion, the judges make quite extensive use of precedents and past custom. And they state quite clearly that "the Court considers that general international law contains no
              applicable prohibition of declarations of independence. Accordingly, it concludes that the declaration of independence of 17 February 2008 did not violate general international law."
              And it says that international recognition of a declaration of independence is a political matter, not a legal one.

              The latter could be arguable, if a non-recognition promotes or creates a situation leading to genocide. That could make it (the non-recognition) a crime under international law since to encourage a genocide is as much a crime as to actually commit it. To allow Azerbaijan to regain Nagorno Karabakh would allow a genocide to take place. What theories (apart from the stupidity one) can explain the inexplicable reluctance of Armenians to pursue this line? Stupidity doesn't explain it all, since Armenian state officials actively tries to supress examples of Azerbaijan's genocidal policies and the genocidal nature of its society.
              Agreed. Additionally, Armenia has been way to complacent with Artsakh's future. Either they have been way too timid or just plain corrupt--probably both.
              General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

                Bell-the-cat, well said. Only the Azeris consider that the ICJ opinion on Kosovo is not applicable on Karabakh, but I bet that even they do not believe what they say.

                One may wonder why Armenia itself does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. May it be because Russia is not friendly towards "independentist" movements in general? For instance, Russia does not recognize Kosovo's independence in order to support its Serbian allies.

                Or is it because Armenia wants to put all the "blame" on Karabakh's Armenians for ceding from Azerbaijan, supposedly giving it more credibility...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

                  Originally posted by Davo88 View Post
                  Bell-the-cat, well said. Only the Azeris consider that the ICJ opinion on Kosovo is not applicable on Karabakh, but I bet that even they do not believe what they say.

                  One may wonder why Armenia itself does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. May it be because Russia is not friendly towards "independentist" movements in general? For instance, Russia does not recognize Kosovo's independence in order to support its Serbian allies.

                  Or is it because Armenia wants to put all the "blame" on Karabakh's Armenians for ceding from Azerbaijan, supposedly giving it more credibility...
                  Russia is indeed leary of independent movements but lets not forget that this is only true when those movements are not in its own interest. When interests coinside Russia has the power to create the Abkhazias of the world. This is why aligning our interests with Russia is so important. Countries that aligned with the west fell into economic dispair like Georgia and Ukrain and Ukraine is already back in Russian orbit while Georgia has been split apart and will never be like it was.
                  Hayastan or Bust.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Will the Kosovo ruling have a positive impact on Karabakh?

                    It many not apply to Artsakh but sets a precedence that independence is very much possible, which is good......however on the other side it may even be safe to assume that this also puts more pressure on Baku to settle NK issue, one way or the other before its too late.
                    B0zkurt Hunter

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