Regional geopolitics

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

35 TURKISH SOLDIERS KILLED IN TATVAN, BITLIS

August 16, 2015

ANF News - HPG guerrillas carried out effective actions on the
anniversary of the August 15 Initiative. 35 soldiers died in an action
conducted by guerrillas against Bilika guard post in Tatvan district
of Bitlis.

Guerrillas carried out effective actions in commemoration of their
recently martyred comrades and in response to the Turkish state's
ongoing aerial activities, operations and attacks that aim to escalate
the war.

In its written statement, HPG Media Center noted that guerrillas
blocked the road in the Å~^apata region of Hakkari's Å~^emdinli
district between 17:00 and 18:00 on August 15, and informed the passing
by civilians on the anniversary of the August 15 Initiative. Turkish
army tried to enter the region with armored vehicles, but was met with
guerrilla response from four different directions. HPG said one police
of special operations forces died during the clashes that continued
until 19:00, and refuted the news regarding four guerrillas lost in
these clashes.

HPG stated that guerrillas also blocked the road in Pire MerduÅ~_a
area located between Å~^emdinli and Yuksekova districts at 19:30 on
August 15, and has been controlling the road between Gevriya Civiyan
and Bezelê on the border of Zagros region for the past 12 days.

ACTION AGAINST BEROX GUARD POST WITH HEAVY WEAPONRY

Guerrillas carried out an action against Berox guard post in the
Å~^emzinan district of Hakkari at 07:00 on August 15, and the number
of dead or injured soldiers has not yet been clarified. Turkish
army bombed the region with artillery, scouted the area with drones
between 09:00 and 15:00, and warplanes bombed the region between
11:00 and 12:00.

HPG guerrillas stopped 30 vehicles on the road between Perwari and
Catak at 14:30 on August 15, and informed the passing by civilians
on the anniversary of the August 15 Initiative until 20:00.

Turkish army bombarded Besta region from the Celê Nımêja guard
post in Botan between 11:30 and 12:00 on August 15, and caused a
forest fire in the area that still continues.

Guerrillas carried out an action against Werdıkê guard post in
Mardin's Kerboran district on the anniversary of August 15, which
left 4 soldiers killed and the barracks in front of the guard post
destroyed.

Guerrillas stopped 60 vehicles on the road between Å~^axo and Perwari
at 07:00 on August 16, and informed the passing by civilians on the
political process. Guerrillas have been controlling the blocked road
since this morning.

HPG guerrillas carried out an action against the barracks in the
Gendarme Organized Palace barracks and one soldier died during the
clashes that lasted 15 minutes. Guerrillas also acted against the
Gendarme Artillery Battalion in Amed's Lice district, and the nearby
surveillance cameras were completely destroyed during the action
carried out with rifles and B-7 rocket propellers. The number of dead
or injured soldiers has not yet been clarified.

COMPREHENSIVE ACTION IN TATVAN DISTRICT OF BÄ°TLÄ°S

HPG reported that guerrillas carried out an action against Bılıka
guard post in Tatvan district of Bitlis at 05:00 on August 14, and
destroyed 2 mountain vehicles, 8 watch towers, 2 dozers, 6 vehicles
and the entire guard post with the blast of a vehicles with 2 tons of
explosives. HPG announced that all of the 35 soldiers in the guard post
were killed, and the army evacuated soldiers' bodies with 5 ambulances
and one large morgue vehicle. HPG added that ambulances retrieved 20
bodies and the morgue vehicle carried 15 bodies, and the army removed
the wreckage of the guard post with construction vehicles and put up
curtains around the post in order to prevent any filming attempts.

Guerrillas checked ID on the road between Bitlis and Hizan between
19:00 and 21:30 on August 15, and have been controlling this road
since August 12.

Guerrillas from the Martyr Berxwedan and Martyr Fuat units blocked
the road between KanireÅ~_ (Karlıova) and Cewlik (Bingöl) at 08:00
on August 15, and informed the passing by civilians on the political
process.

Turkish army bombarded the area with Cobra helicopters and deployed
soldiers with Sikorsky helicopters after holding the entrances to
and exists from the district around 13:40.

A sabotage action by guerrillas targeted a convoy of the Turkish army
that came to the scene for intervention after the bombardment. In the
action which was conducted in memory of the HPG members martyred in
Amed, guerrillas hit and destroyed an armored vehicle, which left a
group of nine soldiers made up of officers and specialist sergeants
dead. Another armored vehicle and a Sikorsky helicopter in the area
were also hit with heavy weaponry.

The activity of Turkish UAVs over the area continued till 23:00 at
night and helicopters hit the scene following the action by guerrillas.

In another action targeting a construction site in Dıdırê town of
Agrı's Patnos district at 21:30 on August 15, guerrillas burnt down
nine lorries and a petroleum office belonging to the mayor.

Guerrillas took control a road between Patnos and Van's ErciÅ~_
district from 21:30 to 22:40 on August 15, performed ID checks and
informed the people about the process.

A base station of the private Turkcell GSM operator in Geliyê Zilan
area was destroyed by guerrillas at 00:30 on August 15.

SABOTAGE ACTION AGAINST NATURAL GAS PIPELINE

The natural gas pipeline between Iran and Turkey was targeted by a
sabotage action of guerrillas in Kalus area near Bazid district of
Agrı at 01:00 on August 14. The action didn't cause a fire due to
the suspension of the gas flow in the pipeline.

After encircling the Korxan guard post in Igdır on August 14,
guerrillas killed 5 soldiers in 5 assassination actions at 15:00 on
August 15. Four other soldiers were killed as guerrillas further hit
the guard post with heavy weapons. While the road and access of water
and electricity to the guard post were blocked in the action, Turkish
troops at the post shelled the surrounding areas till evening hours.

Casualties were transported from the scene in helicopters between
21:30-22:00.

Turkish UAVs flew over Cemce area between 07:00 and 10:00 on August 16.

For the last three days, Turkish army dispatched Special Operations
Teams from Erzurum's Å~^enkaya district to Ardahan's Göle district,
and also deployed units in guerrilla uniforms around the village of
Bagaverdi in Å~^enkaya.

ACTION AGAINST HIGH-VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINE IN Ä°SKENDERUN

A sabotage action by guerrillas targeted the high-voltage transmission
line in Ä°skenderun district of Hatay on August 13. A Turkish
military unit sent to the scene for intervention was also targeted
by guerrillas, yet the number of casualties couldn't be verified.

After blocking a road between Dersim and Elazıg from 20:40 to 22:00
on August 15, guerrillas performed ID checks, spread propaganda to
the people and burnt down a truck belonging to a private company.

http://www.horizonweekly.ca/news/details/71633

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

RUSSIA LIFTS BAN ON DELIVERY OF S-300 SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE SYSTEM TO IRAN

16:46 â~@¢ 19.08.15

The Kremlin lifted its self-imposed ban on the delivery of a
powerful missile air-defense system to Iran on Monday, stoking sharp
criticism from the White House and Israel and casting fresh doubt on
the international effort to curb Tehran's nuclear program, The Wall
Street Journal reported.

US lawmakers seized on Moscow's announcement Monday to warn Russia
was among a host of foreign countries using the prospect of a nuclear
deal to begin seeking out lucrative business deals that could bolster
Iran's military and economy.

Any delivery of an air-defense system would complicate airstrikes on
Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel or the US should the diplomatic
track fail.

Iran thinks that Russia will deliver the missile system this year,
Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council,
told the Interfax news agency in Moscow on Tuesday.

The US Senate is set to vote this week on legislation that would
provide Congress with the power to approve, amend or kill any agreement
that seeks to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for a lifting
of international sanctions.

Supporters of the bill, Republican and Democrat, said Russia's lifting
of its ban on the S-300 surface-to-air missile system could be just
the beginning of countries testing the sanctions regime and a United
Nations arms embargo on Iran.

"Before a final nuclear deal is even reached, [Russian President]
Vladimir Putin has started to demolish international sanctions and
ignore the U.N. arms embargo," said Sen.Mark Kirk (R., Ill.), who
sponsored legislation that seeks to impose new sanctions on Iran if
a final deal isn't reached by June 30.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the defensive systems
didn't come under the U.N. arms embargo, and that Russia implemented
the S-300 ban voluntarily. "This was done in the spirit of good will
to stimulate progress in the negotiations," he said, adding that it
was no longer necessary.

The State Department also said that the embargo imposed on Iran in
2010 didn't prevent the delivery of S-300s. But the White House warned
that the missile system, while defensive, could enhance Iran's ability
to challenge key U.S. allies in the Middle East, such as Israel and
Saudi Arabia.

It said that Secretary of State John Kerryraised the issue with Mr.

Lavrov on Monday.

Still, the Obama administration was measured in its criticism, noting
that it didn't believe the proposed missile sale would jeopardize
the nuclear negotiations.

The White House has been aggressively lobbying Capitol Hill not to
pass new sanctions or the proposed oversight bill while negotiations
are ongoing.

US officials have warned such legislation could give Iran a pretext
to walk away from the talks and ramp up its nuclear activities.

"We think given Iran's destabilizing actions in the region, in places
like Yemen or Syria or Lebanon, that this isn't the time to be selling
these kind of systems to them," State Department spokeswoman Marie
Harf said. But she added: "We don't think this will have an impact
on unity in terms of inside the negotiating room."

Russia signed a contract with Iran worth roughly $800 million in 2007
to deliver an S-300 defense installation--a mobile, long-range system
that can detect and destroy ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and
low-flying aircraft.

But the US and Israel pushed the Kremlin to drop the deal, expressing
concern that Tehran could use the system to protect its nuclear
facilities from attack.

Russia relented and in 2010, then-President Dmitry Medvedev issued a
decree prohibiting the delivery. The order brought Russia in line with
UN Security Council sanctions passed that year, which established
a broader arms embargo on Iran but did not ban the delivery of
ground-to-air missiles.

The move also helped pressure Iran to re-engage in negotiations,
which resulted in a historic framework deal early this month.

Despite tensions elsewhere, the US and Russia have continued to
cooperate on the nuclear talks. White House press secretary Josh
Earnest pointed to Russia's recent endorsement of the administration's
fact sheet explaining the terms of the framework deal, which Iranian
leaders have publicly challenged.

"That underscores the kind of unity around the specific agreement
that we believe has been critical to our success," Mr Earnest said.

President Barack Obama warned over the weekend of "the possibility
of backsliding" before the June 30 deadline.

On Monday, Mr Putin removed the ban on delivering a defensive missile
system, though Russia hasn't announced the completion of any new
contract.

"At this stage, we believe the need for this kind of embargo, and a
separate voluntary Russian embargo, has completely disappeared," Mr
Lavrov said Monday, citing the recent progress in nuclear talks. He
called the missile system "exclusively of a defensive nature" and said
it "doesn't threaten the security of any governments in the region,
including, of course, Israel."

But Israel disagreed, casting the Kremlin's move as illustrating the
legitimacy Iran is gaining from a nuclear deal, which Israeli leaders
have called ill-advised.

"It's proof that the economic momentum that will come for Iran after
lifting sanctions will be exploited for an arms buildup and not for
the welfare of the people of Iran," Israeli Intelligence Minister
Yuval Steinitz said.

The Kremlin's reversal comes a little over two months before the six
world powers--the US, China, Germany, France, the UK and Russia --
are to hammer out the final details of a deal with Iran.

Ms Harf said the US sees the S-300 as separate from the nuclear issue,
adding that the US and Russia have been in "lockstep" in negotiations
even while disagreeing on other issues.

Iran's defense minister praised the lifting of the ban as an example
of the potential of improved relations with Russia. "Extra-regional
threats and the spread of terrorism by (insurgent) groups have
increased the need to further expand cooperation," Brig Gen Hossein
Dehqan said, according to the official IRNA news agency.

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/08/19/c-300/1767678

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

TURKEY SENDS "DRAFT AGREEMENT" TO RUSSIA ON TURKISH STREAM PROJECT

13:30, 19.08.2015

Turkey has sent a draft inter-governmental agreement to Russia on the
proposed Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline project--from Russia to
Turkey across the Black Sea--, and is awaiting a response.

The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey, Taner Yildiz,
stated about the aforementioned.

Yildiz also said there had been an 8 percent drop in Russian gas
sales to Turkey in the last 5-6 months.

The minister noted that the weakness of the Turkish lira has placed
an extra 11 billion lira ($3.82 billion) burden on Turkey's natural
gas bill, the Gazeta.ru Russian news site reported citing Reuters
news agency.

To note, Serbia, Macedonia, Greece, and Hungary want for the Turkish
Stream to reach Austria.

http://news.am/eng/news/282134.html

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Թուրքիան քաղաքական պարտություն է կրել: Խոշոր կոնֆլիկտ տարածաշրջանում

ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
Մեկնաբանություն - 23 Օգոստոսի 2015,

Ինչպես էլ զարգանան իրադարձությունները Մերձավոր Արեւելքում, արդեն այժմ ուշադրության կենտրոնում ոչ Իսրայելը եւ ոչ էլ Իրանն են: Ուշադրության կենտրոնում Թուրքիան է, եւ երեւում է՝ երկար ժամանակով:

Ուշադրության կենտրոնում են հայտնվում այն երկրները, որոնք իրական սպառնալիքի տակ են: Թուրքիան սպառնալիքի տակ է, եւ ԱՄՆ-ն չի կարող դա չհասկանալ ու անտեսել այդ հանգամանքը:

ԱՄՆ-ի ու Թուրքիայի հետախուզական ծառայություններն, իհարկե, ունեն որոշակի պայմանվորվածություններ, սակայն այս իրավիճակում երկու պետությունները հետախուզական տեղեկատվության ոլորտում գերադասում են գործել տարբեր կերպ ու առանձին: ԱՄՆ-ի որոշ պատասխանատու պաշտոնյաներ, որոնք Թուրքիայի հետ հարաբերություններում փորձել են նրա հարեւաններից ստացված տեղեկատվության առեւտուր անել, ներկայում հեռացվել են գործերից:

Որքան էլ Թուրքիան ու ԱՄՆ-ն հատուկ ծառայությունների ոլորտում ցուցադրեն համատեղում ու համագործակցություն, իրականում նման բան չկա, եւ երկու երկրներն ավելի ու ավելի են հայտնվում դիմակայության ռեժիմում: Դա պետք է լավ ու առարկայական հասկանալ, որպեսզի հասկանալի դառնա Մերձավոր Արեւելքի գործընթացների էությունը:

Թուրքիան Մերձավոր Արեւելքում հավերժական թեմա է, սակայն մինչ նեոօսմանիզմի դոկտրինի հռչակումը Թուրքիան փորձում էր շատ չխորանալ տարածաշրջանի խնդիրներում:

«Բաղդադի պայմանագրի» բլոկի անկումը Թուրքիային երկար ժամանակով հանեց «մերձավորարեւելյան պետությունների» շարքից, ինչը մեծ նշանակություն ուներ Իսրայելի շահերի համար: Նեոօսմանիզմը դարձավ Մերձավոր Արեւելք ներթափանցելու Թուրքիայի փորձերի բազային պայման ու գաղափարական հիմք:

Թուրքիան երկար ժամանակ վարում էր արեւմտյան ու ռուսական փորձագետների անգաժավորման քաղաքականություն եւ ժամանակ առ ժամանակ պատվերներ էր տալիս նրանց: Եկել է Թուրքիայի ստեղծած տեղեկատվական ծառայության բավական մեծ ու ճյուղավորված ցանցի լիակատար փլուզման ժամանակը: Արեւմտյան երկրների ու Ռուսաստանի կառավարությունները ներկայում ստիպված են թանկ հատուցել այն վստահության համար, որ տածում էին այդ փորձագետների հանդեպ:

Առաջին նշանակալի դեպքը 2002-ի վերջին-2003-ի սկզբին էր, երբ ԱՄՆ բանակի 4 դիվիզիաների Թուրքիան թույլ չտվեց Մերսինից անցնել Մոսուլ: ԱՄՆ-ն ու Մեծ Բրիտանիան շոկի մեջ էին, սակայն Թուրքիայի հանդեպ նոր քաղաքականությունը միանգամից չձեւավորվեց: 2002 թ. աշնանը Լոնդոնում ու Վաշինգտոնում ես հանդիպել եմ 102 փորձագետների, որոնց հարց է տրվել՝ հնարավո՞ր է, որ Թուրքիան թույլ չտա ԱՄՆ զորքերի անցումը: Բացի ՌԵՆԴ կորպորացիայի մի փորձագետից, մյուսները վստահ պնդում էին, որ ԱՄՆ բանակը կանցնի Թուրքիայի տարածքով, Մոսուլի ուղղությամբ:
ԱՄՆ-ի ու Թուրքիայի հարաբերություններում տեղի ունեցավ շրջադարձ, եւ պարզ դարձավ, որ Հայաստանը պետք է մշակի նոր արտաքին քաղաքականություն: Դա համընկավ նրան, երբ Ռուսաստանը պատրաստվում էր դառնալ Թուրքիայի ու Ադրբեջանի գործընկերը:

Պետք է նշել, որ Ռուսաստանը հենց Մերձավոր Արեւելքն է փորձում վերածել Թուրքիայի հետ բլոկային եւ բարեկամական հարաբերության ձեւավորման ասպարեզի, քանի որ Մոսկվայում հասկանում են, թե որքան խոցելի են Թուրքիայի հետ պայմանավորվածությունները Սեւ ծովի ու Կովկասի տարածաշրջանում:

Մերձավոր Արեւելքում խաղաղ գործընթացի հանդեպ Թուրքիայի դիրքորոշումը անհետեւողական եւ ինչ որ չափով ոչ կառուցողական բնույթ ունի: Թուրքիան օգտագործում է խնդիրներն իր ազդեցության ուժեղացման համար, ու նրա հարձակումներն Իսրայելի հանդեպ շատ բանով սպեկուլյատիվ բնույթ ունեն: Թուրքիայի քաղաքականությունն այս դեպքում հակասում է Եվրոպական միության ու ԱՄՆ-ի շահերին: Արաբական պետություններն ու զանազան շարժումները հասկացել են, որ Թուրքիան հետապնդում է միայն իր շահերը, ցանկանալով հաստատել իր դիրքերը տարածաշրջանում: Այս կապակցությամբ, Թուրքիայի քաղաքականությունն առաջացնում է արաբական երկրների զգուշավորությունն ու անհանգստությունը:

Թուրքիան ձգտում էր միջամտել Սիրիայի իրադարձություններին ազգային անվտանգության ապահովման անվան տակ, ինչն իրական սպառնալիքներ առաջացրեց նրա շահերի համար: Ներկայում Թուրքիան ՆԱՏՕ-ին խնդրում է պաշտպանել իր անվտանգությունը:

Թուրքիայի ու Իսրայելի հարաբերություններն անհասկանալի են եւ քողարկում են ինչ որ տարօրինակ նպատակներ: Լավ հայտնի է, որ այս երկու երկրները շարունակում են համագործակցել գործող պայմանագրերի շրջանակներում, այդ թվում պաշտպանության ու ռազմական տեխնոլոգիաների ոլորտում:

նդհանուր առմամբ, Մերձավոր Արեւելքում հակամարտությունների կարգավորման վիճակը մնում է անորոշ եւ լավատեսություն չի ներշնչում: Ներկայում ԱՄՆ-ն ու Եվրոպական միությունը համակարծիք են, որ նոր բնակավայրերի կառուցման շարունակումը պաղեստինյան հակամարտության կարգավորման գլխավոր խոչընդոտն է:

Իսրայելը կոշտ դիրքորոշում ունի եւ ատեսում է Արեւմտյան հանրության դրքորոշումը: Եթե Իսրայելը հարձակումներ ձեռնարկի Սիրիայի ռազմական օբյեկտների դեմ, մեծ պատերազմն անխուսափելի կլինի: Այդ դեպքում Թուրքիան կարող է պահանջել ՆԱՏՕ-ի ավելի մեծ աջակցությունը իր անվտանգության ապահովման համար:

Ո՞րն է Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ԱՄՆ-ի ներկայիս քաղաքականության էությունը եւ Թուրքիայի դերն այդ քաղաքականության մեջ: ԱՄՆ-ն փորձում է վերահսկողություն իրականացել տարածաշրջանում: Այս կապակցությամբ, այն ամենը, ինչ ամերիկացիներն անում են Թուրքիայի հարցում, ուղղված է նրա հանդեպ վերահսկողությանը:

Թուրքիայի ու Ռուսաստանի հարաբերությունները բնութագրվում են երկրորդական: Երկու պետությունները չեն կարող գնալ բավարար զիջումների իրենց ազգային շահերում: Եվ Թուրքիան ու Ռուսաստանը փորձում են զիջել իրենց այսպես կոչված գործընկեների շահերը, սակայն դա ակնհայտորեն բավարար չէ պարտավորեցնող հարաբերությունների համար, առավել եւս երբ խոսքը ՆԱՏՕ-ի ու ԱՄՆ-ի հետ Թուրքիայի հարաբերությունների մասին է:

Միեւնույն ժամանակ, Ռուսաստանի միջազգային դրությունը զգալիորեն ավելի խոցելի է, եւ նա հայտնվել է մի իրավիճակում, երբ ինքն է ստիպված զիջել:Լիովին հասկանալի է, որ Թուրքիան քաղաքական պարտություն է կրել, եւ նեոօսմանիզմի գաղափարախոսների մեծ մասը գործնականում հրաժարվել է այդ դոկտրինից: Սակայն Էրդողանը շարունակում է կառչել այդ մարգինալ գաղափարից, քանի որ իշխանության է եկել այդ դոկտրինի օգնությամբ, առավել եւս որ իր հարաբերությունները ռազմական շրջանակների հետ քիչ թե շատ կարգավորել է այդ պսեւդո-հավակնոտ գաղափարի շնորհիվ:

Միեւնույն ժամանակ, Թուրքիան հարձակողական դիրքից ստիպված էր անցնել խոր պաշտպանության, ինչով ավելի նմանվեց Ռուսաստանին:

Երկար ժամանակ պաշտպանության ու շրջափակման մեջ գտնվող Իրանը ԱՄՆ աջակցությամբ ձեռնամուխ է եղել տնտեսական ու քաղաքական էքսպանսիայի: Թուրքիան իր դերը տարածաշրջանում զիջել է Իրանին, ինչն ակնհայտ է դարձել նաեւ հենց իր համար:

Օգոստոս 2015 թ., ինչ որ տեղ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....UZiDJQRr.dpuf

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The turkish sponsored IS has dynamited the Roman era Palmyra temple in Syria. World famous, UNESCO listed....
Just as they destroyed an Assyrian Church in Karyatayn city a week earlier, or they destroyed the Deir Zor chuch and Genocide victms ossuary a year back....

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Obama refuses to give appointment to Erdoğan amid strained ties

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_obama-refuses-to-give-appointment-to-erdogan-amid-strained-ties_397322.html

US President Barrack Obama has refused to give President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an appointment in the next few months, citing his tight schedule, amid the presence of discord between the countries on outstanding issues in the Middle East, such as the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In early August, after returning from an official visit to Indonesia, Erdoğan told reporters that he might have talks with Obama in September as part of a visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly and that if he did not have the opportunity to attend the meeting, he may pay a visit to Washington in August.

Erdoğan's request for a meeting was sent to the White House by the Turkish Foreign Ministry but US officials said Obama had a tight schedule preventing him from meeting with Erdoğan. The White House added that the leaders could meet during the G20 summit to be held in mid-November in Antalya.

After Obama's refusal to arrange an appointment with Erdoğan, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is expected to attend the UN General Assembly in September instead of Erdoğan.

The last meeting between Erdoğan and Obama was in May 2013, during which the leaders stated that both countries had agreed that the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad must leave power.

However, due to recent discord between the US and Turkey on issues related to the Middle East, such as the US' frustration with Turkey's reticence to take active part in the US-led coalition to fight ISIL, there has not been a visit between the countries at the presidential level since May 2013.

Obama also openly criticized the Turkish authorities in an unprecedented move in June for failing to ramp up the capacity Ankara needs to prevent foreign fighters from crossing the Turkish-Syria border to join ISIL.

After a year of diplomatic wrangling, Turkey granted the US permission to use its southern air bases, including the mammoth Incirlik Air Base, for strikes against ISIL in northern Syria. The US transferred some of its fighter jets from Germany to Incirlik and have begun sending out unmanned aerial vehicles.

It also struck ISIL positions in Syria with its fighter jets departing from the Inclirlik Air Base. While the air base deal was hailed and welcomed as a “game-changer” by experts due to the air base's close proximity to Syria, the agreement is still riddled with ambiguity amid lingering points of contention between Turkey and the US.

Ankara and Washington agreed to clear a 98-kilometer long, 45-kilometer wide area of ISIL-held territory along the Turkish border. Ankara's desire for the creation of a de facto safe zone was met with caution by the US with Turkish officials failing to secure US backing. However, experts say the US air campaign would naturally lead to such a consequence: an area free of ISIL elements near the Turkish border.

The most recent criticism from the US came on Friday when US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the US needs Ankara to step up its efforts to control its long border with Iraq and Syria.

Referring to Turkey's launching of an operation against ISIL following a suicide bomb attack in the border town of Suruç that claimed 33 lives, Carter stated that Ankara's participation in the bombing efforts against ISIL is “long overdue” because the campaign has been under way for over a year.

Carter said Turkey was “indicating some considerable effort now” regarding the campaign, adding that Turkey's choice to allow the US to use its air base was “important, but it's not enough.”

The divergent agenda and conflicting interests in Syria lay at the heart of discord between Ankara and Washington. The most elaborate and revealing point is their incongruent approach to the potent Kurdish militia, which has emerged as a reliable ally for the US on the ground in Syria against ISIL.

While the US places greater importance and hope on the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), Ankara views the strong cooperation between the two with suspicion, expressing concerns over the formation of a Kurdish political zone in northern Syria to American officials.

The US has, on numerous occasions, said that it has never supported the Kurdish aspirations for an autonomous region or territorial change, a bid to alleviate the concerns of its NATO ally, which fears Syrian Kurds' drive to independence may fuel separatist sentiments among its restive Kurdish population.

Another issue that divides allies is the future of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Damascus as Ankara presses for the removal of the Syrian president, while the US prioritizes fighting the most urgent and imminent threat -- ISIL.

Apart from clashing interests in Syria, the White House has also grown uneasy with Erdoğan's increasingly authoritarian style of governance, diplomatic sources said.

[Zeytun]

Re: Regional geopolitics

In George Friedman's book "the next 100 years" he forecasts the fall and division of Russia and the emergence of Turkey as a regional power.
I believe this forecast is quite correct ,what would that mean for Armenia ? I would really like to know your point of view on this matter.

[Armynia]

Re: Regional geopolitics

In George Friedman's book "the next 100 years" he forecasts the fall and division of Russia and the emergence of Turkey as a regional power.
I believe this forecast is quite correct ,what would that mean for Armenia ? I would really like to know your point of view on this matter.

George Friedman's book never forecasts how much America's national debts will be in next 100 years??????????????

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

In George Friedman's book "the next 100 years" he forecasts the fall and division of Russia and the emergence of Turkey as a regional power.
I believe this forecast is quite correct ,what would that mean for Armenia ? I would really like to know your point of view on this matter.

It seems events are moving in the opposite direction thus far. If his forecast was true it would mean disaster for Armenia as Turkey would finish off the genocide as no one would stop it then.

[Armynia]

Re: Regional geopolitics

It seems events are moving in the opposite direction thus far. If his forecast was true it would mean disaster for Armenia as Turkey would finish off the genocide as no one would stop it then.

Please review Battle of Sardarapat to know how your ancestors defeated the Enemy without any help of third country.

And avoid weak words such as

it would mean disaster for Armenia as Turkey would finish off the genocide as no one would stop it then.

Historical Battles: Battle of Sardarabad (1918)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sardarabad










The battle of Sardarabad holds a special place in Armenian historical memory and is often compared to the 451 A.D. Battle of Avarayr. Leaders of the First Republic frequently invoked the name of the battle, exhorting their people to aspire to the example of those who had fought and participated in it.

The battle was seldom mentioned or given little significance in Soviet historiography until after the death of Joseph Stalin. In the mid-1960s, a number of Soviet historians began to highlight its importance, as well as that of Bash Abaran and Karakilisa.The Soviet military historian Evgenii F. Ludshuvet, for example, emphasized that these battles, fought by the "Armenian Dashnak forces", helped slow down the Turkish advance on Baku and helped relieve some pressure against that city. Notable Soviet Armenian literary figures such as Hovhannes Shiraz and Paruyr Sevak, whose work "Sardarapat" was turned into a popular song, composed songs and wrote poems that lionized the Armenian fighters.







The memorial dedicated to the Armenian victory at the Battle of Sardarabad near Araks, Armavir, Armenia





The Armenians attempted to stall the Ottoman advance as they created a small Armenian army to take up the positions the Russians had abandoned. General Tovmas Nazarbekian was selected as its commanding officer and Drastamat Kanayan was appointed as civilian commissar.





Date: May 21–29, 1918

Location: Near Sardarapat, Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic (present-day Armavir, Armenia)

Result: Decisive Armenian victory
and Establishment of the First Republic of Armenia
Treaty of Batum: recognition of Armenia by the Ottoman Empire




Belligerents:
Armenian National Council
Armenian Army Corps

Vs.
Ottoman Empire




Commanders and leaders:
Daniel Bek-Pirumyan
Movses Silikyan
Tovmas Nazarbekian
Aram Manukian

Vs.
Wehib Pasha
Kâzım Karabekir
Rüştü Bey
Zihni Bey



Strength:
Armenian Army
9,000

Vs.
Ottoman Empire
10-13,000



Casualties and losses:
Armenian Army
light

Vs.
Ottoman Empire
3,500 dead alone from May 22 to May 26












The officers of the 5th Infantry Regiment, heroes of Sardarabad. The Battle of Sardarabad prevented the complete annihilation of the Armenian nation.





General Movses Silikyan, commander of the Armenian forces.







Armenian general Movses Silikyan ordered elements of the 5th Armenian Regiment under Poghos Bek-Pirumyan, a reserve guerrilla unit, and a special cavalry regiment to check the advance of the Ottoman army.

An offensive was launched on May 22 and the Armenian forces were successful in halting the Ottomans in their tracks and forcing Yakub Shevki Pasha's forces into a general rout (retreating nearly 15-20 kilometers in a westerly direction).

The Ottoman command, however, was able to recuperate from its losses and reorganized its forces near the mountain heights on the north-west bank of the Araks river. Repeated attempts to cross the river were met with fierce resistance by the 5th Armenian Regiment.


On May 24, several more skirmishes took place between the Armenian and Ottoman forces. However, attempts to dislodge the Ottomans from their well-entrenched positions the following day by Poghos Bek-Pirumyan's and other commanders' forces were met with failure. On May 27, an Armenian force commanded by Colonel Karapet Hasan-Pashayan performed a flanking maneuver and struck the Ottoman positions from the rear while the rest of the Armenian forces pounded the main Ottoman positions. An Ottoman force based in Talin was sent to alleviate it by attacking the Armenian rear, but was unable to change the outcome of the battle. Suffering heavy losses, Ottoman commanders ordered a general retreat as the surviving elements of the Ottoman army were put to flight.



The Ottoman defeats at Sardarabad, Bash Abaran, and Karakilisa staved off the annihilation of the Armenian nation, and the victories here were instrumental in allowing the Armenian National Council to declare the independence of the First Republic of Armenia on May 30 (retroactive to May 28). Though the terms that Armenia agreed to in the Treaty of Batum (June 4, 1918) were excessively harsh, the little republic was able to hold out until the Ottomans were forced to withdraw from the region with the end of World War I in late 1918.




Ivan Bagramyan, a Marshal of the Soviet Union and himself a participant of the battle, described its importance in the following manner:

(The significance of the battle of Sardarapat is great... If they [the Armenian forces] did not defeat the Ottomans there, they would have proceeded to Echmiadzin and Yerevan—nothing would have remained of Armenia, nothing would have been saved... The Armenians won and, thanks to them, our people preserved their physical existence within the current borders of Armenia)






New York Times article headlines from May-June 1918