Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish "luck":


- Turkish economy is not at its best, for known reasons,... but the tourism industry is the least possible affected by 'security' matters, since no terrorist, kurd or islamist, dares thinking hitting the vital artery.
- Nevertheless, even if everybody seems doing its best to spare the turism industry, the western rich public is less inclined to risk its life among islamists. Most of all, because they can afford to go to Northern shores of the Mediterranean. So this turism industry is in need of some new boost...
- Turkey is one of the most influential actor/manipulators of the Syrian crisis. Yet the refugges generated by the crisis are not a burden, rather a big chance... since they are plundered first, then used as disciplined formation of Yenicheris, to blackmail Europe.
- Turkey is the main architect of Isis.
- The most important contingent of tourists in Turkey are russians, the lest affected segment of clients, by events.
- Poorer russian tourists (devaluation/economic crisis), go more and more to Turkey, Egypt, and partly to UAE. The day the Jet was blown, there were 80.000 russians in Egypt..
- Isis hits a russian jet in Egypt.
- Turkis islamist AKP is declared rival of secular militarist Egypt.
- Today russian tour agencies cancel touristic packages to Egypt, forced by events and state policy, and in place, propose turkish destination on a mass scale in Moskwa airports.

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Why Armenia’s Military Alliance With Russia Is Not At Risk


By Emil Danielyan

November 07, 2015


For many decades, the dominant discourse of Armenian political and intellectual leaders was summed up by an emblematic quote from Khachatur Abovian, a 19th-century Armenian writer. "Blessed be the hour when the blessed Russian foot stepped upon our holy Armenian land," Abovian wrote in his most famous novel, set during the Russian-Persian war in the South Caucasus.

For the Christian Armenians remaining in what at that time was just the central and eastern parts of an ancient Armenian kingdom, the Russian victory in the 1826-1828 war ended centuries of oppressive Muslim rule and their status as second-class subjects of the Persian Empire. It also laid the groundwork for the eventual establishment of the modern-day Republic of Armenia, a successor to one of the 15 Soviet republics.

The Armenian nationalist groups which emerged in tsarist Russia in the late 19th century generally professed loyalty to the Russian state. The 1915 mass killing of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey, which many historians and about two dozen countries have recognized as genocide, only reinforced this geopolitical orientation. Both the communist rulers of Soviet Armenia and anti-Soviet nationalist leaders in the worldwide Armenian diaspora portrayed Russia as the sole guarantor of Armenia's survival in a hostile Muslim neighborhood.

Things started changing with the onset in 1988 of a popular movement for Armenia's unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. The anticommunist leaders of that movement, who eventually formed independent Armenia's first government, took a more critical view of the Russian-Armenian relationship, saying that it also had negative consequences for the Armenian people.

Yet even they chose to keep Armenia anchored to Russia politically and military after the breakup of the Soviet Union. This strategic choice facilitated the result of the 1991-1994 war with Azerbaijan, which left Armenians in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas. It was rarely questioned by major Armenian opposition groups, pundits and independent media until the early 2000s.

Pro-Western Sentiment

The past decade has seen a rapid spread of pro-Western sentiment among local journalists, civil society members, and youth activists who rely heavily on social media. This process only accelerated after Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian unexpectedly decided in 2013 to forego a far-reaching Association Agreement with the European Union and make Armenia part of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) instead.

For this expanding circle of politically active people, Russia is a threat to Armenia's sovereignty, security, and democratization which must be neutralized by a reorientation of Armenian foreign policy towards the West. Some of them demand not only Armenia's exit from the EEU, but also an end to the Russian military presence in the country.

Although Russian policies are indeed a cause for legitimate concerns, such rhetoric glosses over the grave security challenges facing Armenia. Like virtually all other Armenians, the vocal pro-Western elements want Nagorno-Karabakh to remain under Armenian control -- something which hinges, in large measure, on the military alliance with Russia. But they do not present the country's political elite with alternatives security options, resorting instead to emotional oversimplifications of foreign policy issues.

Even so, these changing attitudes have fueled suggestions by some Armenia watchers in the West that Russia may be on the brink of losing one of its staunchest ex-Soviet allies. Such speculation was stoked by last February's furious street protests outside the Russian consulate in Armenia's second largest city of Gyumri over the gruesome killing of a local family, which a Russian soldier is accused of having carried out. It intensified further during this summer's demonstrations in Yerevan against an electricity price hike engineered by the country's Russian-owned power distribution network. The so-called "Electric Yerevan" campaign was so dramatic that it raised Russian fears of another "color revolution" against a Moscow-friendly government in the ex-USSR, leading the Kremlin to hastily make a number of major concessions to the Armenian government.

All the same, a closer look at Russian-Armenian ties should be enough to demonstrate why Armenia will continue to heavily rely on Russia for defense and security in the foreseeable future. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the most important driving force of that alliance, and it is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

Military Aid

Thanks to its massive oil revenues, Azerbaijan has increased its annual military spending by almost 30 times during President Ilham Aliyev's more than decade-long rule. It is projected to total $3.6 billion this year, more than Armenia's entire state budget.

Consequently, the Azerbaijani army has been beefed up with large quantities of offensive weapons, including $4 billion worth of tanks, combat helicopters, air-defense systems, and other military hardware purchased from Russia since 2010. This military buildup has emboldened Aliyev to repeatedly pledge not only to win back Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Armenian-controlled territories, but to take what he has called "historical Azerbaijani lands" in Armenia itself, including Yerevan.

By comparison, Armenia's 2015 defense budget is equivalent to only about $500 million. Despite this huge spending disparity, the country has so far been able to largely maintain the military balance with its oil-rich foe. Through bilateral defense agreements with Russia and membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), it has long been receiving Russia weapons at knock-down prices or free of charge. This mostly unpublicized military aid appears to have intensified in recent years.

In particular, Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian-backed army is known to have formed a new tank brigade (which typically consists of around 100 tanks) and received more heavy artillery in 2012. In late 2013, it announced the provision of another 33 Russian-made tanks to its forces. Russia also reportedly delivered 110 armored vehicles and 50 rocket systems to the Armenian military during that period.

Armenia will soon buy more advanced weaponry at domestic Russian prices with a $200 million low-interest loan that was disbursed by Moscow during the "Electric Yerevan" protests. Around the same time, the Russian government revealed that it is negotiating with the Armenian side on supplying the latter with state-of-the-art Iskander-M missiles that would significantly boost Armenia's ability to strike Azerbaijan's vital oil and gas installations.

The Armenian missile arsenal currently includes Soviet-era Scud-B and Tochka-U systems with firing ranges of 300 and 120 kilometers respectively. The Azerbaijani military has implied that it can neutralize them with S-300 surface-to-air missiles supplied by Russia in 2009-2010 as well as other missile-defense systems reportedly purchased from Israel in 2012. But these systems would most probably be unable to intercept Iskander-M missiles, one of the most potent weapons of their kind in the world.

Iskander-Ms would thus give Armenia an additional major deterrent against possible Azerbaijani attempts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by force. Armenian leaders have repeatedly hinted at their impending acquisition in recent years.

Russia has also been a key provider of free education and training for Armenian military personnel. As of last year, as many as 250 Armenians reportedly studied full-time or took shorter courses at Russian military academies. This figure is comparable to the total number of cadets graduating from Armenia's two military academies annually.

The Russian military base in Armenia's second largest city of Gyumri is another essential component of close military cooperation between the two states. Debate in Armenia on the wisdom of hosting it usually focuses on the question of whether or not the Russian troops would openly fight on the Armenian side should Azerbaijan act on its threats of military action. That misses the point.

The Turkey Factor

What Yerevan needs first and foremost is not Russian ground forces in Nagorno-Karabakh but a safeguard against Turkey's direct military intervention in the conflict, in light of its close ties with, and treaty obligations to, Azerbaijan. (Under the 2011 Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Support, the two sides undertake to support each other using "all possible means" in the event of an attack or aggression against one of them.)

Bombing raids by Turkey's sizable Air Force alone could seriously affect the outcome of another Nagorno-Karabakh war by overwhelming Armenia's air defenses and destroying other Armenian military targets. The Russian base precludes such intervention, enabling the Armenians to concentrate the bulk of their military might on Azerbaijan.

For all its efforts to woo Baku, including with arms deals, Moscow is simply not interested in Armenia's defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute because that would eliminate the key rationale for the Armenian reliance on Russia. A military withdrawal from Armenia would in turn minimize Russian presence in a region which Moscow continues to regard as its backyard.

Pro-Western circles in Armenia rarely discuss these specific security issues in their critique of Russian-Armenian dealings. Nor do they question the underlying motive behind successive Armenian governments' pursuit of close ties with Moscow: continued Armenian control over Nagorno-Karabakh. So far the pro-Western camp has been unable or unwilling to disprove the notion that, as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved, Armenia's ability to resist Russian pressure and seek deep integration with the West will be seriously limited.

As much as Sarkisian's dramatic 2013 volte-face was a manifestation of poor foreign policy making, it reflected this reality. A more legitimate, democratic and, therefore, pro-Western regime in Yerevan might have succeeded in wriggling out of the EEU. But even such a government could have hardly afforded a far-reaching accord with the EU in the existing geopolitical environment aggravated by Russia and the West's standoff over Ukraine.

Little wonder, then, that only one of the six parties represented in the Armenian parliament has openly opposed membership in the EEU. Most ordinary Armenians, too, continue to support the alliance with Russia, even if their pro-Russian sentiment is now far less intense than in the past. With a Nagorno-Karabakh peace remaining elusive, they are still more likely to agree with Khachatur Abovian than with the cohort of pro-Western pundits and activists increasingly setting the tone of political debate in their country.

Guest blogger Emil Danileyan is a veteran member of RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

http://www.rferl.org/content/caucasus-report-armenian-russia-military-alliance/27351046.html

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

SYRIAN ARMY, RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES PUSH MILITANTS BACK IN LATAKIA

13:38, 09 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

Photo by Sputnik

Syrian military, supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces and local
militia, took control of the Ghmam settlement some 16 miles northeast
of Latakia, a RIA Novosti reports.

In early October, the Syrian army regained control of the Ghmam
settlement, but Nusra Front militants later seized it. The settlement
was recaptured from the militants last week.

A Syrian army general responsible for the liberation of Ghmam told
Russian journalists the settlement's capture was complicated, as
deep tunnels made by the militants surrounded it. Russian Aerospace
Forces' powerful bombs significantly damaged terrorist fortifications,
according to reports.

Russian aircraft damaged militant artillery and prevented
reinforcements, weapons and food from reaching the terrorist groups.

Ghmam's strategic location allows for the control of a road connecting
the Turkish border and the large Syrian cities of Idlib and Aleppo.

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/09/syrian-army-russian-aerospace-forces-push-militants-back-in-latakia/

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Russia to provide Iran with S-300 air defence missiles
9 November 2015
BBC

Russia has signed a contract to supply Iran with sophisticated S-300 surface-to-air missiles.
The contract got the go-ahead after international sanctions on Iran were lifted earlier this year, following a deal over its nuclear programme.
Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia are all opposed to the missile contract.
Russian officials say the first batch could be delivered 18 months after Iran has specified the S-300 type that it wants. Technical talks are continuing.
"The deal to supply the S-300 to Iran has not only been signed between the parties but it has already come into force," said Sergei Chemezov, head of Russia's Rostec arms firm, speaking at the Dubai Airshow-2015.
The $800m (Ł545m) contract, signed in 2007, was frozen by Russia in 2010 because of the international sanctions. President Vladimir Putin unfroze it in April.
Israel and the US fear the missiles could be used to protect Iranian nuclear sites from air strikes.


The S-300 can be used against multiple targets including jets, or to shoot down other missiles.
The S-300B4 variant - delivered to the Russian armed forces last year - can shoot down any medium-range missile in the world today, flies at five times the speed of sound and has a range of 400km (248 miles), Tass reports.
Profile: Russia's S-300 missile system
When the Russian deal was suspended Iran filed a lawsuit seeking billions of dollars in damages.
Mr Chemezov said Saudi Arabia had asked Rostec repeatedly not to supply the S-300 to Iran.
But he insisted that it was a defensive weapon. "So if the Gulf countries are not going to attack Iran... why should they be threatened? Because this is defence equipment," Reuters news agency quoted him as saying.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Ինչ որ բան է տեղի ունեցել

ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
Քաղաքականություն - 09 Նոյեմբերի 2015,

Առաջատար տերությունները սկսել են ինչ որ տարօրինակ ձեւով ռմբակոծել տարբեր խմբավորումների իսլամիստներին: Իսլամիստներին բավական կասկածելի են սկսել վերաբերվել նաեւ տարածաշրջանի պետությունները:
Այն, որ Ռուսաստանը որոշել է անցնել իսլամամերձ սիրիական ընդդիմության կողմը, արդեն հայտարարվել է, ընդ որում՝ ձեւ են անում, որ դա պայմանավորված է Բաշար Ասադով: Ռուսաստանի «սովորությունը», որն իրեն այլ կերպ չի կարող պահել, հայտն է բոլորին, եւ ռուսների հենց այս մարտավարությունն են հաշվի առնում ամերիկացիներն ու եվրոպացիները Ռուսաստանի հանդեպ իրենց ռազմավարական պլանավորման մեջ: Այդ հարցում արեւմտյան գործընկերները չեն սխալվում:
Սակայն ինչպես են պատրաստվում իրենց պահել ԱՄՆ-ն ու նրա գործընկերները, կամ էլ համենայնդեպս միայն ամերիկացիները:
ԱՄՆ-ն Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ունի երկու հակառակորդ, որոնք վեր են ածվում գլոբալ հակառակորդների՝ Ռուսաստանն ու Իսլամական պետությունը: Չափազանցություն չի լինի պնդելը, որ ԱՄՆ-ի ռազմավարությունը Ռուսաստանին ու իսլամիստներին երկարատեւ, խրոնիկ պատերազմի մեջ ներքաշելն է, որը Ռուսաստանին կհասցնի լիակատար սնանկության այդ «փոքր հաղթական պատերազմում»:
Վերջին շրջանում ամերիկացիները մանրամասն ուսումնասիրել են ոչ թե համաշխարհային պատերազմների, այլ Ղրիմի ու ռուս-ճապոնական պատերազմների փորձը, որոնք Ռուսաստանին հասցրել են կամ փլուզման, կամ նկատելի թուլացման:
Եթե ռուսներն իրենց թույլ են տվել ընկերանալ սիրիական ընդդիմության հետ, ապա ինչու ամերիկացիները ձեռնամուխ չլինեն Իսլամական պետության հետ պայմանավորվածություններին: Իհարկե, դրա համար պետք կլինի տարանջատել խմբավորումները, որոնք այդ ասոցիացիայի մաս են կազմում, առավել եւս, որ այդպիսով առեւտրի առարկա կլինի ոչ միայն Իրանի, այլեւ Մերձավոր Արեւելքի այլ պետությունների հետ:
Կարծես թե այս հարցում գործընկերներն էլ են պարզ՝ Սաուդյան Արաբիան ու նրա արբանյակները:
Այս կապակցությամբ, ինչու նման ընդգծված ճոխությամբ Լոնդոնում ընդունեցին Եգիպտոսի նախագահին, ինչի՞ մասին են բրիտանացիները պայմանավորվել եգիպտացիների հետ: Ըստ ամենայնի, բրիտանացիները ժամանակին փոխել են սլաքները եւ ընտրել Եգիպտոսը, որը կոչված է «լեգիտիմացնել» Իսլամական պետության աբսորբացիայի ծրագիրը:
Ներկայում Արեւմուտքը հանդուրժողականություն է խաղում եւ բազմաթիվ վեհաժողովներ կազմակերպում Ռուսաստանի ու Իրանի մասնակցությամբ, սակայն դա դժվար թե արտահայտում է Օբամայի լիբերալ էությունը: Խաղն ընթանում է լայն դիապազոնով, եւ ամերիկացիները պետք է ցույց տան հոնդուրժողության սկզբունքը:
Իրականում նպատակ է դրվել Ռուսաստանը ներքաշել երկարատեւ ու քիչ վերահսկելի պատերազմի մեջ: Հենց այդ հաշվարկով Արեւելյան Միջերկրածովյան շրջան է պատրաստվում մեկնել ահռելի ռազմածովային արմադա ոչ միայն ԱՄՆ-ի, այլեւ Մեծ Բրիտանիայի ու Ֆրանսիայի մասնակցությամբ: Սկսվում է Իսլամական պետության դեմ սելեկտիվ հարվածների սկզբունքը:
Եվ ինչն է ամենաինտրիգայինը: Հասկանալի է դարձել, որ Իրանին ամենեւին պետք չէ Ռուսաստանի մասնակցությունը ռազմական գործողություններին, այն բանից հետո, երբ Ռուսաստանը մերձեցավ սիրիական ընդդիմության հետ: Լիովին հասկանալի է, որ Իրանը նույնպես կմասնակցի խաղին, երբ Ռուսաստանին որոշել են մտցնել երկարատեւ պատերազմի մեջ:
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/pol....XXrfVvTf.dpuf

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

http://lratvakan.am/?p=47813&l=am/ocharvo%D6%82tox+adrbejancineri+aqloranalu+imasty+chem+haskanumlevon+shirinyan

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

URGENT: SYRIAN ARMY MOVING TO WIN CONTROL OF ANOTHER STRATEGIC AIRBASE

Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:23

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian army launched operations to win back
control over a second airbase after its groundbreaking victory in
the battle against ISIL in Aleppo that ended up with the removal
of a 2.5-year-long siege of the Kuweires airbase on Tuesday, with
military sources announcing on Wednesday that the second target is
Marj al-Sultan Airbase in Damascus.

Military sources said the Syrian army and National Defense Forces
(NDF) have already won control over the village of Nawleh near the
strategic Marj al-Sultan Airbase, and killed a large number of Jeish
al-Islam and al-Nusra Front Takfiri terrorists.

"The pro-government forces are now in control of 80% of the territories
South the strategic airport," the source told FNA on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the Syrian army continued to advance against the Takfiri
terrorists in Eastern Ghouta and retook strategic areas from the
foreign-backed militants.

The Syrian troops took full control over al-Mahalej area, to the
South of Marj al-Sulatn, and the farms surrounding it, a military
source said.

Yesterday, the Syrian army, popular forces and Hezbollah forces,
backed up by Syrian and Russian air force, lifted the two and a
half-year-long siege of Kuweires military airbase after killing
hundreds of ISIL terrorists.

Unconfirmed reports said the groundbreaking victory was gained under
the leadership of Iran's renowned Commander Major General Qassem
Soleimani.

The Syrian troops and Hezbollah forces rolled into the Kuweires
airport at the end of their daylong last phase of massive operations.

Heavy clashes were underway around the Kuweires airport since Tuesday
morning and the Syrian army was defusing ISIL's minefield before they
could reach their friends in the base.

There are unconfirmed reports from the battlefield about witnessing
Iran's Major General Qassem Soleimani leading the battle.

Sources from both sides of the war said General Soleimani was the
top field commander and has been leading the CentCom of the Syrian
army-NDF-Hezbollah at least for the last two days.

FNA is unable to confirm or reject these reports independently.

The Syrian army, the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Hezbollah
combatants, backed up by Russian warplanes, launched the last round of
their over one-month-long joint operations against the ISIL terrorists'
positions in Eastern Aleppo near the Kuweires airbase Tuesday morning,
and won full control over the strategic Aleppo-Raqqa Highway.

The attack started from multiple directions and ended up in cleaning
up several villages from ISIL. Hundreds of the ISIL militants were
killed or wounded in the operations.

In the next stage, Syrian and Russian Air Forces massively targeted
the last strongholds of the ISIL militants around the Kuweires airbase.

In addition to the Syrian and Russian airstrikes, the artillery and
mortar units of the army also shelled the ISIL strongholds to weaken
their defense lines as much as possible to lay the ground for the
combatants of Hezbollah, the army soldiers and the National Defense
Forces to launch the final phase of their joint operations to lift
the siege on Kuweires airbase.

Intelligence sources said hundreds of ISIL militants were fleeing the
Kuweires region to safer areas to save their lives after suffering
heavy casualties in the joint massive attack of the Syrian Army and
Hezbollah with the Russian air backup.

After cleaning the region, the pro-government troops had to defuse
a minefield planted by the ISIL before they could reach the gates
of airbase.

Hundreds of Syrian forces were under a tight siege at the airbase as
a result of the occupation of vast areas surrounding the airport by
the terrorists.

When under the siege, the Syrian army's helicopters supplied foodstuff
and other needs to the Syrian troops defending the airport.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940820000512

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Russian military surge in Syria: More helicopters, first “volunteer” combatants
DEBKA
11/11/2015

After the downing of the Russian airliner over Sinai on Oct. 31, Moscow moved into positon to lead the offensive against the Islamic State in Syria. The Russian air force transferred a large number of assault helicopters out of its enclave in Latakia province over to two Syrian air bases east of Homs on the front lines against ISIS, DEBKAfile’s military sources report. From the T4 (Tiyas) and Shayrat Airbases, the Russian command will lead the battle against the Islamic State over Homs, a city of one million inhabitants and the hub of central-eastern Syria. As the Russians move over from air strikes to the offensive against ISIS, they know their combat helicopters are now exposed to being shot down.
Homs came under direct threat on Nov. 1, when Islamic State forces captured the village of Mahin south of the city, cutting down the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Syrian army and Hizballah forces standing in their path and inflicting heavy casualties. Control of Mahin opened the way for ISIS and Syrian rebels to reach the southern suburbs of Homs and seize control of the strategic M5 Highway linking the city to Damascus.
Another group of Russian combat helicopters is now deployed at Hama Military Airport to block off the offensive ISIS and the Nusra Front are preparing to launch in the northern Idlib Province. There too jihadist forces have made advances. On Nov. 5, they snatched from the Syrian army the strategic town of Morek which commands the routes from the north to central Syria.
According to intelligence reports from southern Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, more Russian combat helicopter units are under orders to stand ready for transfer to Syria. Moscow is evidently preparing to take over from the Iranians, the Syrians and Hizballah the heavy-lifting of the war to stop further ISIS advances. More helicopters are needed to support this offensive if it is to go forward on all fronts.
Other intelligence sources report Russian “volunteer” units getting organized for departure to Syria from southern Russia and eastern Ukraine, detached from fighting alongside pro-Moscow separatists.
Their arrival in Syria would deepen Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian conflict and also mark its first participation in ground combat, contradicting President Vladimir Putin’s earlier pledge against putting Russian boots on the ground in Syria.
While intensifying the war on ISIS, the Kremlin is also pushing forward its plan for a political solution of the Syrian crisis, to be discussed at the forthcoming multinational conference in Vienna.
Tuesday, Nov. 10, a number of Western media claimed to “reveal” some of its key points, although the full seven-point blueprint was first published by DEBKA Weekly 684 on Oct. 30, under the heading:
Revealed: Russia’s Syrian Peace Plan
1. Russia and Washington will draw up an agreed “target list” of parties standing out against a political resolution of the conflict. They are to be attacked jointly by US and allies and Russian forces. The proposal does not go into the nature of a bilateral mechanism for determining who figures on the “target list.”
Moscow would really prefer the Russian and the US-led coalition air forces not to confine their attacks to ISIS, but extend them also to Syrian rebel groups. Russia could then refute US and NATO allegations that only one out of every nine Russian air strikes is directed against an ISIS target, with the majority aimed at Syrian rebel groups.
As DEBKA Weekly reported in its previous issue, the Obama administration did not reject a priori the proposed US-Russian air force collaboration in Syria and Iraq, but requested additional clarifications from Moscow.
2. Moscow proposes an immediate cease-fire on all Syrian army-rebel warfronts. The proposal does not say if it should apply to the foreign forces fighting in the country, such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hizballah, the pro-Iranian militias and the Russians themselves.
3. Once the cease-fire goes into effect, all the parties and organizations involved in the war will be convened for a national dialogue. This round-table conference will have three main goals:
A. Release of all prisoners and hostages held by the various sides.
B. Preparation of parliamentary and presidential elections with a general amnesty for political prisoners.
C. Establishment of a new government committed to implementing agreed constitutional reforms that center on the transfer of presidential powers from Assad to the designated prime minister.
In other words, Assad will not be made to step down as president at once, but will have to give up his presidential powers, including control of the military and intelligence services.
It is assumed that Putin put this clause before the Syrian ruler in Moscow as a diktat he had no choice but to accept.
4. The Russian president offers a personal guarantee that Assad will not be permitted to run for president in the coming elections, but he has accepted the Syrian ruler’s proviso that members of his family and ruling caste will be eligible for election.
5. All the rebel groups and militias that take part in implementing the Russian plan will be absorbed into Syria’s military or other security services and place themselves under their orders.
6. Governments and other bodies outside Syria will undertake to halt weapons supplies to all combatant forces. This provision applies not only to the US and Saudi Arabia with regard to rebel groups, but also to Russia and Iran as sponsors of the Syrian army.
7. Russia will continue to maintain military force in Syria as security for the agreement’s full implementation, contingent on UN Security Council endorsement of its presence.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Very interesting detail:
Last mounth, there was a huge incident durink mekka pilgrinage during the haj.
Hundreds, possibly thousands of people were killed by a huge mass panic, walked on by others.
Among the dead, more than 400 Iranians...
There was a big floo over the all affair, and major dispute on figures, responsability, facts...
Now it appears, that after the return of the iranian bodies to Tehran, some 15 are missing....and among them a very, very, very special person.
The ex-ambassador of Tehran in Beyrut, from 2010-2014.......

http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/954209/teheran-demande-a-riyad-de-lui-rendre-ghadanfar-rokon-abadi-vivant.html