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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    What is the US cooking up for Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran? "Divide and conquer" on a whole new level
    December 7, 2015 -
    Svyatoslav Knyazev, PolitRussia -
    Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski
    http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/12...rkey-iraq.html




    “Turkey versus Iraq and Syria: prologue of the Third World War?”

    Military publications and information agencies have exploded with the news that Turkish security forces are beginning to consolidate on Iraq territory. For the last few days, the Turkish army has been crossing the Syrian border and started digging in and equipping their border positions. Earlier, Turkish armed forces had already penetrated into both Syrian and Iraq territory (and “experts” were sure that they had been there the whole time), but this time we are dealing with a fundamentally new approach.

    In February 2015, the Turks went a few dozen kilometers into Syrian territory to evacuate the remains of the founder of the Ottoman Empire, Suleiman Shah, and protect their honor. In September 2015, Turkish armed forces held a short-term operation against activists of the Kurdish Workers Party in Iraq not long after a clash with police in Turkey. Plus, for quite some time Turkish air forces have attacked the Kurds under the pretext of fighting Daesh. Turkey’s willfulness, of course, is not liked by Baghdad or Damascus, but air raids are one thing. A totally different thing is an actual occupation.

    On November 26, the Turkish army broke into the territory of Syria and captured the border height tal-Sieb. It started with infantry accompanied with construction equipment. And then, after the erection of fortifications, tanks and light armored equipment were placed on the heights. Various media report that the local residents were convinced that this was all done with the aim of covering oil exports of the terrorists to Turkey, so that external forces would not prevent Daesh’s peaceful hydrocarbon trade, and in order to replenish the family budget of the country’s leadership.

    And now units of the Turkish army have already “materialized” in the area of Bashiq near Mosul in Iraq. In the beginning there was talk of a company, then a battalion of infantry reinforced by 20-25 tanks. That is, there was talk of a battalion-tactical group capable of performing separate tasks. In particular, one capable of retaining positions or landing areas until the arrival of the main forces located not far away.

    In general, according to media reports, directly on the south-eastern border of Turkey more than 1,000 armored vehicles, or about 8 brigades, are now concentrated. Given the size of the Turkish army, in a short time this grouping could be expanded significantly.

    Unlike previous “raids,” the Turks seem to be accustoming themselves to being in Iraq and Syria for a while.

    The intention to train the Turkish-loyal Kurdish militia group “Peshmerga” was officially announced. But in fact, there is a bigger question. Why are groups loyal to Turkey not being prepared on its own territory? Why go to a territory which, according to news agencies, is controlled by the “Islamic State.” Moreover, nothing has been heard of supposed conflicts between Turkish forces and the Islamic State.

    Official Baghdad in a rage

    Iraq authorities have stated that they gave no permission for this entry onto their territory and they have demanded that it their territory be left immediately. Turkey has pretended that it doesn’t hear anything. Then the head of the Iraq parliamentary committee on security and defense, Hakim al-Zamili, officially appealed to the government to airstrike the positions of Turkish occupational forces.

    And, if the decision will be made, the consequences could be unpredictable. Given the policies of Ankara in recent times, being three our four times wrong as an aggressor, Turkey nonetheless believes that those who it his committing acts of aggression against have no right to use force. And Iraq, in this situation, might be blamed as the aggressor with all the ensuing consequences.

    The situation is quite delicate, remembering that the US is officially continuing to “nurture” official Baghdad and that Turkey is a NATO ally and has recently, clearly been the pet of the alliance. Here it should be noted that relations between Washington and Baghdad are becoming more and more formal at an eye level. Iraqi authorities have openly pro-Iranian positions, and Tehran is clearly closer to them in every sense than their overseas “partners” who are bombing their country back to the stone age. In the words of American authorities, there is all the less heat aimed at Baghdad while there is more undisguised irritation at the growing influence of Tehran in the region and, indirectly, Moscow.

    Turkey, despite the fact that the US has publicly distanced itself from the Mosul situation, is unlikely to decide on an invasion of a foreign territory without approval from Washington. Moreover, the situation is slippery. This member of the alliance’s troops could be struck at. But this would not be a strike at the territory of a member of the alliance, but against what is in fact an occupation force on a different territory. Formally, the allies have all the legal bases to politely (or rudely) refuse to support Ankara. But how everything will actually turn out is unknown. However, it is 90% probable that Turkey will not just leave its soldiers to be bombed. And then a spark can ignite a flame. And it is very likely that Iran will be compelled to come to the aid of its friends and fellow believers in Iraq.

    Syria is being pulled apart

    The situation in Syria is no less complex. Given the audacity and impudence with which Ankara acts, and its absolute nihilism in regards to issues of international law, it is impossible to exclude that, once established in one place in Syria, Turkish troops will move further. It is impossible for the Syrian army no to react to this, but what will happen if it does react? I recall that the Syrian army today operates in tandem with the Russian air force.

    Russia is trying with all of its strength to maintain peace, and it is not responding to the military provocations of Turkey. But in view of the total and complete inadequacy of the Turkish leadership, it is impossible to predict its next steps. Turkey’s policies are, unfortunately, beginning to look more and more like the policies of Nazi Germany and, if a finger is raised, then the hand will be slapped...

    Moreover, the situation in Syria and Iraq is already appearing to be not merely indirectly, but straightforwardly terrifying to Russian security. If earlier couch experts and idealists reasoned that the Caucasus are separated from the positions of ISIS by Turkey, then today it is obvious to everyone that the Turkish border is fully transparent for terrorists.

    ISIS is now becoming more powerful in almost openly cooperating with Turkey. In Afghanistan, the death of the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, has been announced. This information has not been fully confirmed but, if it is true, then a vacuum will be created among the leadership of Islamic groupings in Central Asia, and ISIS will immediately rush to fill it. Plus, in recent months (under the nose of American security forces), its forces are growing with impunity in Northern Afghanistan. I think that it is not necessary to explain how this could threaten Russia.

    In all of this terrible game, we don’t need to delude ourselves over the relationship between the US government and Erdogan. The US and the West in general have been traditionally close to nationalist Pan-Turkists in Turkey who are popular in the military. It is not excluded that Washington will once again plan a reshuffle similar to the one which Soviet spies thwarted in Germany 70 years ago. From 1943 to 1945, London and Washington thought through the technical variants of replacing Hitler with Nazi military and secret service men who were loyal to them, together with whom a united front could be formed against the USSR. But thanks to the efforts of brilliant Soviet agents, Moscow was constantly one step ahead, and attempts to “make friends” with the Nazis while simultaneously sacrificing Hitler resulted in an ugly international scandal.

    Now, the United States is encouraging Erdogan with a conspiratorial half-smile while trying not to cross a certain line. Once his job is done and the fires of war have been lit, then it will be possible to accuse him of all mortal sins (first and foremost the financing of international terrorism) and skillfully replace him with someone fully controlled by the West from among the military-based nationalists who are dreaming of revenge against Erdogan over recent mass imprisonments and other humiliations.

    Who is interested?

    Why the United States? Everything is very simple. We have already written about the fact that the US has “ventilated” the question of changing borders in the Middle East into ones more comfortable for it over the past few years.

    Moreover, this is done by force and “unofficial” but also “non-accidental” entities. In particular, experts from the former leadership of security and diplomatic structures of the US. Former chief of staff of the US Army, General Raymond Odierno, spoke on the feasibility of changing borders at his press-conference upon resigning. A former high-ranking intelligence officer, Ralph Peters, whose books are taught at leading military colleges in the US, wrote on this. And not long ago he was joined by one of the most authoritative American experts, the former deputy secretary of state and representative of the US to the UN, John Bolton:

    “The current reality is such that the Iraq and Syria which we knew no longer exist. The Islamic State has carved out a new structure out of the heritage of the post-Ottoman empire, mobilizing Sunnis who are in opposition to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and the government of Iraq controlled by Iran. In addition, after years of struggle, a de fact independent Kurdistan has been formed...Instead of fighting for the restoration of the map of the world from after the First World War, Washington should recognize the new geopolitical situation. The best alternative to the Islamic State in north-eastern Syria and western Iraq is a new, independent, Sunni state."

    Bolton almost verbatim repeated Peters and cynically stressed that the new government is clearly not democratic, but that there is, supposedly, nothing wrong with this! If Peters had only predicted in theory a change of borders, then Bolton’s speech would have been about this, but such statements have now been based in a real, operative setting! This leads to very serious suspicions that the entire situation is being completely modified in the framework of realizing one strategic plan.

    There is not need to have any illusions. This “new independent Sunni state” designated by Bolton is ISIS! Just at the right moment some of its most odious leaders will be sacrificed! Once again, the “Dulles-Himmler variant of 1945”!

    In a certain sense, the problem today is Kurdistan. The Kurds on the territory of Turkey and Syria are obviously negative towards Ankara, as towards the West, and do not hide their leftist views. Therefore, the West will carry on work with the Iraqi Kurds loyal to it, out of whom a new elite can be “forged.” It is possible that a united, independent Kurdistan, unlike today’s “anti-Western” mosaic of Kurdistan, could be deployed against Damascus, Baghdad, and Tehran. One option is that it could be either restricted to northern Syria and Iraq or a new Turkish elite would be compelled to sacrifice part of their territory in exchange for power and recognizing legitimacy. In the situation of a “great war,” this would be perceived normally.

    And so, the ideal map for the West includes:

    the division of Iraq into three parts (a Shiite South, part that will leave for a new Sunni state, and part going towards a new Kurdistan)

    the division of Syria into three or four parts (one part goes to the new Sunni state, another to the new Kurdistan, and the costal part will be made into a miniature, secular and pro-Western state, or, over the course of trading, could be left for the Alawites)

    a weakened, reduced, and more Western-controlled Turkey

    The countries which the West would like to throw into the fire of war are Iran (from which Washington would obviously and with pleasure separate the northern part inhabited by Kurds and Azerbaijanis) and Saudi Arabia, which is heading towards policies more independent from Washington (this recent behavior of yesterday’s ally cannot but annoy the United States).

    The ideal option for Washington would be excluding Iran’s north, which is populated by ethnic minorities and which has access to the Caspian Sea. The resulting strip would be turned into a land corridor for pro-American forces in Central Asia.

    And, of course, the strategic goal of this grand plan would be the southern part of Russia which, according to Western military doctrines, is the “main threat” against which all measures are good.

    If this plan is carried out from across the ocean according to plan as written and in a controlled scenario, then this would be entirely tragic for us.

    But it would be no less tragic for us than for the whole world if over the course of the implementation of this plan uncontrolled reactions begin (the appearance of unexpected players, the use of WMD’s, etc.), which could set the world on fire.


    Russia’s actions in this situation are turning into a complicated chess match. One this is 100% clear. The decision to start operations in Syria was strategically, absolutely correct. And it has only one drawback: it was not taken earlier.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
      Very interesting. Thank you.
      some remarks:
      - I still did not understand from this, where the synthesis of the amphetamine+cafeine is done? Processing the pills is rudimentary technology, nothing special. But the row material, the emphetamine is certainly not a natural product (like geroin or morphine, from the flower grown in Afkanistan or Turkey).
      It must needs some kind of syntesis, like petrochemistry. Where is it done?
      In Jordan ?? (since the border guard is saying they used to stop trade from Jordan), in Homs?? Or in Beirut??
      My guess is in a much more industrialised country....

      - Everybody knows, that in Lebanon, electricity is an endemic problem, with less than 12/24... and even the poorest barber has a small generator to produce his own electricity.... so these guys, who brass millions of dollars... are dependant from state electricity... ??
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fenethylline

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
        Very interesting. Thank you.
        some remarks:
        - I still did not understand from this, where the synthesis of the amphetamine+cafeine is done? Processing the pills is rudimentary technology, nothing special. But the row material, the emphetamine is certainly not a natural product (like geroin or morphine, from the flower grown in Afkanistan or Turkey).
        It must needs some kind of syntesis, like petrochemistry. Where is it done?
        In Jordan ?? (since the border guard is saying they used to stop trade from Jordan), in Homs?? Or in Beirut??
        My guess is in a much more industrialised country....

        - Everybody knows, that in Lebanon, electricity is an endemic problem, with less than 12/24... and even the poorest barber has a small generator to produce his own electricity.... so these guys, who brass millions of dollars... are dependant from state electricity... ??
        Virtually all major illicite drug trafficking is sponsored by the wealthy elite and shows western style financial conduct.
        Whether its cocain/crack to heroine to pot or pills on American or European streets to any other place in world where there is major drug problem.
        There are many privileged people who are honored for their great wealth in our ?society? Who are heartless scum.
        Gotta love cigarettes .
        HARK

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Originally posted by Artashes View Post
          Virtually all major illicite drug trafficking is sponsored by the wealthy elite and shows western style financial conduct.
          Whether its cocain/crack to heroine to pot or pills on American or European streets to any other place in world where there is major drug problem.
          There are many privileged people who are honored for their great wealth in our ?society? Who are heartless scum.
          Gotta love cigarettes .
          This is also true for highkacked cargo ships and human trafficking as well as the trafficking of other lives.
          Let me be clear ... Extremely rich and influential white guys are the primary coordinators of all these grossly sickening conduct.
          Democracy and freedom of ?speech? Or manipulation of the masses and freedom to lie.
          Can anyone tell the difference?
          Please spare me , that's not a question.
          HARK

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Turkey's foreign minister just said Turkey with NATO can occupy Russia in 7 days. Maybe thanks giving will come twice this year..i like eating that bird.
            Hayastan or Bust.

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
              Turkey's foreign minister just said Turkey with NATO can occupy Russia in 7 days. Maybe thanks giving will come twice this year..i like eating that bird.
              Unfortunately Russia is not cooker for you and will never cook Turkey for you!

              You have to cook the bird by your self, if you cannot cook bigger one today, then cook smaller birds to get some experience!
              Your Armenian Lion

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Armenia is a lion cup today, once grown up it will be a great competitor to bear, by than baboons will be long gone.

                Lions would never live with the bears. Only lion cups would for survival, but once grown up it will become predator
                Your Armenian Lion

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Revival of Greek Identity in Syria: Interview with Operation Antioch
                  BY PAUL ANTONOPOULOS
                  DECEMBER 14, 2015



                  As stated from the Operation Antioch (OA) Facebook group, the “OA is a grassroots movement, which supports the notion that the Greek Orthodox and Catholic people of the Levant constitute a distinct Hellenic ethnos.” The Antiochians are an Arab-speaking Christian people, also known as Rum, who reside within the Levantine region, aka Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and the Hatay region in Turkey. They are members of the Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch or the Melkite Greek Catholic Church. Greek historian Pavlos Karolidis says that they are the descendents of Greek settlers from Macedonia who migrated to the Levantine during the Byzantine Empire era.

                  PA: How and why did Operation Antioch start?

                  OA: Operation Antioch is the direct result of two things. The failure of Arabism and the ongoing Rūm Genocide in Syria at the hands of Islamic Terrorists funded and supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as their Western Allies. Our Activist network was born out of an evolving dialogue between several Levantine Rūm living in the Levant and a Greek-American Activist on the history, identity, and current situation of Levantine Rūm. Operation Antioch came “online” in late 2013 with a demonstration outside the Turkish Consulate in California, to protest Turkish support of Terrorism inside Syria. The demonstration, which was a coalition effort of Greek, Armenian, and Assyrian-Americans, was follow by OA Activists participating in a rally in Israel against the mistreatment of Christians throughout the Levant.

                  PA: Why is it important that there is a revival of Antiochian Greek identity and language? How was this identity originally destroyed or attacked?

                  OA: The revival of Antiochene Hellenism is about social justice and equality. It is a cultural revival, which embraces the region’s pre-Arab heritage and legacy. We believe that embracing this Hellenic heritage will bring about a much needed philosophical realignment back towards stability and tolerance, which the Levant so desperately needs at a time when extremism and religious bigotry flourishes across the region. For Rūm-Christians, it’s about the right to exist within our indigenous homeland. It is about fostering unity between all Levantine Greek Orthodox and Melkite-Greek Catholic communities, as well as promoting solidarity between all Greek Orthodox Christians. The adoption of Arabic by the Antiochenes began gradually after the Arab conquest, while the Arabization of our ethnic identity did not intensify until the Ottoman Caliphate. The Arabization of our ethnic identity truly began with the division of our Patriarchate into today’s Antiochian-Greek Orthodox and Melkite-Greek Catholic Churches. This was further cemented with the Arabization of the Antiochian-Greek Orthodox Patriarchate in 1899. These two events laid the foundation for Western Missionaries to nurture the concept of an “Arab” ethnicity amongst Antiochene intellectual circles in the 19th and 20th centuries.

                  PA: How has the ongoing Syrian War affected the Antiochians?



                  OA: The ongoing Syrian War has devastated our people. Since the conflict began, we have been labeled “sympathizers” and “infidels” by Islamofascists, and marked for extermination by such terrorist organizations as the FSA, al-Nusra, and Daesh. Numerous Rūm-Syrian villages have been abandoned by our brethren, forced to flee for their lives. Our religious leaders have been abducted and murdered, our churches desecrated and destroyed. Even the cultural sites of our ancestors, dating back to the Hellenistic period have been targeted for destruction. Those of us brave enough to remain, live in constant fear, as terrorists have even gone as far as to poison traditional Rūm beverages. Forced to endure inhuman living conditions, without food or water, our brethren are forced to depend on humanitarian aid from the Syrian State and International Organizations. Our only refuge has become Wadi al-Nasara, as our people become the victims of a coordinated Genocide against all Syrians of Rūm, Aramean/Assyrian, and Armenian descent. For us, our very existence is at stake.

                  PA: Although of a different historical heritage, is there any relations or communication between the Antiochian Hellenes and Greek speaking Muslims in Syria and northern Lebanon?

                  OA: There is no official relations or communication between the general Rūm-Christian community and the Greek-speaking Muslim community of Syria or Lebanon. Unfortunately, traditional attitudes still prevail in both communities. However, Operation Antioch hopes to change this. We have Muslim supporters, and even some from within the Muslim Cretan Community. Our activist network fully supports the notion of a shared ethnic brotherhood between Levantine Rūm-Christians and Muslim Cretans.

                  PA: Do you have any communication or support from the Greek and Cypriot Governments?

                  OA: We have absolutely no communication or support from either the Greek or Cypriot Governments.

                  PA: Have you made attempts to open communication with the governments of Cyprus and Greece? Is there anything they can do to help your project?

                  OA: We have not attempted to open communication with either the Greek or Cypriot governments. Although support from either government would be helpful, especially official recognition of our people as ethnic Greeks, and heirs of the Seleucid & Romaiic Empires. History has taught us that Greece has consistently failed to protect or assist ethnic Greeks living outside of its borders

                  PA: The movement to reclaim our ethnic Rūm identity is not a political struggle, but a cultural revival. It is an attempt to embrace a heritage and legacy, which is indigenous to the Levant, yet sorely forgotten. It doesn’t mean we aren’t proud of being Syrians. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. The ‘Arab’ identity is one that has been forced upon the indigenous peoples of the Levant for over a 100 years. Fostered inside a naļve Christian intelligentsia by Western Missionaries. It is foreign and culturally alien to the Levant. In reality, Arabism is nothing more than secular Islamism.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    150 Saudi-Led Troops, Mercenaries Killed in Yemen Tochka Attack
                    BY NEWS DESK
                    DECEMBER 14, 2015



                    At least 150 Saudi-led troops and mercenaries were killed in a ballistic missile attack on a Saudi military installation in the western countryside of Bab-el-Mandeb.

                    On Sunday, Yemeni sources said that the Yemeni army and the popular committees launched a Tochka missile on the headquarters of the Saudi military command in the southwestern province of Taiz.

                    The sources reported this death toll, noting that an Emirati colonel named “Sultan Bin Hweidan” was among the killed.



                    Among the casualties were Saudi, Emirati, and Moroccan troops; this was in addition to the death of at least 42 mercenaries hired by the US-based private military contractor, Blackwater, the sources added.

                    Sources added that at least 146 charred bodies arrived in Aden via the Al-Umari military camp, while also adding that the coalition forces sent a ship carrying medical supplies to the coast in order to assist the high number of casualties.



                    Manar

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                      Turkey's foreign minister just said Turkey with NATO can occupy Russia in 7 days. Maybe thanks giving will come twice this year..i like eating that bird.
                      I wish you would provide links.

                      Too busy laughing my head off to do the searches.

                      .
                      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                      Comment

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