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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Originally posted by Joseph View Post
    Thank You:
    Indeed very interesting:
    with your permission I will post it back in Regional Geopolitics thread, seeming more relevant.


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
      Thank You:
      Indeed very interesting:
      with your permission I will post it back in Regional Geopolitics thread, seeming more relevant.
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        U.S. Intelligence: Russia Sabotaged BTC Pipeline Ahead Of 2008 Georgia War
        December 10, 2014, by Joshua Kucera

        A mysterious explosion on a pipeline in Turkey just before the Georgia-Russia war broke out in 2008 may have been a Russian cyberattack, a new investigation argues, citing United States intelligence officials.

        According to the investigation, by Bloomberg, the explosion on August 5, 2008, at Refahiye in eastern Turkey, was the result of a hack on the computers managing the pipeline. Surveillance footage captured two men in "black military-style uniforms without insignias, similar to the garb worn by special forces troops," shortly before the explosion. Software planted in the pipeline system shut down alarms and raised the pressure in the pipeline to such a high level that it exploded, four western intelligence officials told the agency.

        The connection to Russia is solely circumstantial. "U.S. intelligence agencies believe the Russian government was behind the Refahiye explosion, according to two of the people briefed on the investigation. The evidence is circumstantial, they said, based on the possible motive and the level of sophistication."

        Russia certainly has the means to carry out such an attack, as well as the motive. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, carrying oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, was the greatest geopolitical victory by the U.S. in post-Cold War Eurasia, breaking Russia's monopoly on energy exports from the Caspian. And U.S. intelligence officials appear to be thinking that way:

        The chief suspect, according to U.S. intelligence officials, is Russia.

        The sabotage of the BTC line -- which follows a route through the former Soviet Union that the U.S. mapped out over Russian objections -- marked another chapter in the belligerent energy politics of Eurasia. Days after the explosion, Russian fighter jets dropped bombs near the line in neighboring Georgia. Alexander Dugin, an influential advocate of Russian expansionism and at the time an adviser to the Russian parliament, was quoted in a Turkish newspaper declaring the BTC was “dead.”

        The explanation at the time was that the Kurdish PKK had bombed it, and the PKK even claimed responsibility. But that may have all been part of the plan, Bloomberg says: "American intelligence officials believe the PKK -- which according to leaked State Department cables has received arms and intelligence from Russia -- may have arranged in advance with the attackers to take credit."

        It's worth noting that in 2008, U.S. officials seemed to firmly believe that -- Dugin's innuendo notwithstanding -- Russia did not intend to bomb the BTC pipeline during the war in Georgia, in spite of the fact that several Russian bombs fell very close to the line. An August 15, 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable from Moscow discussed the question in detail. "Pundits around the world have linked Russia's energy ambitions to its actions in Georgia. However, our contacts here largely believe energy is an afterthought. Despite various press reports suggesting Russia has targeted the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, absolutely none of our contacts believe that to be true." Among the arguments: 1. If Russia wanted to bomb the pipeline, they would have kept trying until they hit it rather than giving up after one attempt and 2. It wasn't in Russia's interest to bomb the pipeline; doing so would have badly alienated Azerbaijan.

        According to an August 28, 2008, U.S. diplomatic cable then-U.S. Senator Richard Lugar, on a visit to Baku, asked officials at British Petroleum about the possibility that Russia had bombed the pipeline. "BP has never observed any deliberate actions by the Russians to target the Baku-Supsa or BTC pipelines."

        The explosion in Turkey seems to have been less closely examined; a 2009 cable noted that the pipeline "was disrupted during the August crisis by an explosion in Turkey uncorrelated to the Russian invasion of Georgia."

        But whatever the arguments against an overt Russian attack, a covert one like this new report describes is a different matter.

        But this theory, in turn, raises a number of its own questions. For one, what was the point of the attack? If it was kept secret, there is no intimidation effect. If it was a sort of trial run for future attacks, they seem not to have been repeated in spite of the apparent success of the test.

        Relatedly, why carry it out just three days before the war started in Georgia? The question of how that war started remains buried under layers of interpretations and parsing of the word "start," but if you're of the mind that it was Georgia who instigated the war, this is quite a coincidence. If you're of the mind that it was Russia, what purpose did the preview covert action in Turkey serve?

        Also: Why would saboteurs dress so conspicuously, rather than as regular Turkish villagers? Was this also a trial run six years ahead of the appearance of the "little green men" in Crimea?

        And why is this evidence being revealed now, six years after the fact and in the midst of the worst crisis in U.S.-Russia relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Was it being suppressed before, in an effort not to scotch the reset? Is it now being brought forward as part of the New Cold War? Neither Russian nor Turkish officials would comment to Bloomberg, we'll see if the publication prompts any more information to surface.


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          12 December 2014

          Bulgaria picks up the pieces of cancelled Russian pipeline
          By Chris Morris
          BBC News, Varna, Bulgaria

          Stand on the sea wall next to the port in Varna and you can see the bits and pieces of South Stream piled up in front of you.

          Hundreds of long black sections of piping - some on the dockside, and others still stacked on cargo ships.

          They were supposed to have been laid beneath the gloomy waters of the Black Sea, bypassing Ukraine and bringing Russian gas directly to south-eastern Europe.

          But - suddenly and unilaterally - Vladimir Putin has declared the project dead. Gas, he said, will be sent to Turkey instead.

          "It's really not clear what's going to happen to all these pipes next," admits Spas Spasov, a local journalist in Varna who has covered the project from the start.

          No-one at the port itself was prepared to talk about the abandoned pipes, and the local South Stream office was closed for business on the day we visited.

          Bulgaria says it still hasn't received any formal notification from Moscow that the project has been cancelled, and the European Commission is "seeking clarification".

          "It's always been a bit of a mystery anyway," Mr Spasov points out.

          "For example, it was never revealed - if Bulgaria were to sign a contract with (the Russian company) Gazprom - what the price for the transit of gas would be."

          Corruption fears
          While Russia wanted Gazprom to have exclusive access to the pipeline, the EU said no.

          It was a stalemate sharpened and embittered by the dispute about Russian military actions in Ukraine.

          And at the local fruit and vegetable market in Varna, there is a grudging acceptance that bigger issues are at play here.

          Veselina Nenceva
          Veselina Nenceva says she has other things to worry about besides the gas pipeline
          "Of course I have heard about the pipeline," says Veselina Nenceva, as she wanders past with her young child. "But to be honest I've got other things to worry about."

          "We all know that the tensions between Russia and the West will continue, and Bulgaria is in a strategic position. So both sides will try to have more influence."

          Several people at the market talk about a lack of local economic opportunity. Perhaps South Stream could have made a difference - but nothing was ever taken for granted.

          And then there is the ever-present suspicion of corruption in the tenders to build the pipeline in the first place.

          "It's all about corruption, there's nothing but corruption in Bulgaria," says an angry stallholder, Sabka Dimitrova.

          "But we're hoping the EU will help us - we're supposed to be part of the same family."

          EU leaders have already said they will work with the Bulgarian authorities to find alternative sources of both energy security and revenue.

          But there are several theories about why South Stream has suddenly fallen from favour in Moscow.

          Some think it is a bluff, designed to put pressure on Bulgaria and to persuade Brussels to change course.

          But others argue that the effect of sanctions, the collapse of the rouble, and other economic issues meant that the project was simply no longer one that Russia could afford.

          "I think they overplayed their ability to offer material financial incentives to the political elite here," argues Ilian Vassilev, an energy specialist and former Bulgarian ambassador in Moscow.

          Russia"s President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with Turkey"s President Tayyip Erdogan after a news conference at the Presidential Palace in Ankara December 1, 2014
          Turkey hopes to become a regional energy hub after signing a new pipeline deal with Russia
          "And when you see President Putin diverting Russia eastward into some uncharted waters, I think they have lost their ability to change the course of Bulgarian politics and history too."

          Shared destiny
          But local links with Russia run deep - whether it be the influence of Russian business, or the thousands of Russian citizens who own second homes along the shores of the Black Sea.

          And there's something more - a shared cultural heritage.

          Mass at St Nicholas church in the centre of Varna is pretty sparsely attended, but the Orthodox roots run deep.

          "A lot of people in Bulgaria don't identify with the values of Western Europe," says the local priest Father Vassilij Shagan.

          "So they look east to Russia. It's not about Vladimir Putin or Russian politics, but Bulgarians and Russians have a lot in common."

          All of which makes a dispute about the fate of a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline rather more complex.

          Even here in Varna, South Stream always felt more like a political project than a viable economic one.

          But the game is not yet over, and the last twelve months have changed calculations across Eastern Europe.

          The EU says Russia is no longer a strategic partner; instead it is a strategic problem.

          And the Black Sea coast feels like another front line.


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Թուրքիան կարող է ամրապնդել իր դիրքը՝ որպես տարածաշրջանային էներգետիկ հանգույց

            Դեկտեմբեր 12, 2014
            by Անահիտ Չալիկյան

            Տարածաշրջանային զարգացումները Թուրքիային հնարավորություն են տալիս վերահսկել Արևելքը Արևմուտքին կապող ռազմավարական նշանակության էներգետիկ ուղիները՝ ստանալով հսկայական շահույթներ:

            Դեկտեմբերի 1-ին ՌԴ նախագահ Վլադիմիր Պուտինը Անկարայում հայտարարել է, որ Բուլղարիայի անհամաձայնության և Եվրամիության բացասական դիրքորոշման պատճառով Ռուսաստանը հրաժարվում է «Հարավային հոսք» գազամուղը կառուցելուց:

            Նույն օրը ռուսական «Գազպրոմ» ու թուրքական BOTAŞ կազմակերպությունները հուշագիր են ստորագրել, ըստ որի՝ կառուցվելու է Սև ծովով դեպի Թուրքիա գնացող 63 միլիարդ խորանարդ մետր տարողությամբ գազամուղ, որը ՌԴ նախագահի առաջարկությամբ կոչվելու է «Թուրքական հոսք», հաղորդում է ռուսաստանյան НТВ լրատվական կայքը: Վառելանյութի ծավալից 13 միլիարդը նախատեսված է Թուրքիայի համար, իսկ մնացած 50-ը հասցվելու է Թուրքիա-Հունաստան սահմանին, որտեղից եվրոպական պետություններն կկարողանան գնել այն:

            «Գազպրոմի» պաշտոնական ներկայացուցիչ Սերգեյ Կրուպրիանկովը դեկտեմբերի 8-ին հայտարարել է, որ իրենք Սանկտ Պետերբուրգում սկսել են գազատար կառուցող կազմակերպության գրանցումը, որը ստանալու է «Газпром Русская» անունը: Այս մասին հաղորդում է թուրքական «Անադոլու» գործակալությունը:

            Թուրք-հունական ITGI համատեղ նախագծի գազատար
            Թուրք-հունական ITGI համատեղ նախագծի գազատար
            Ընդլայման միտում ունի նաև Հունաստան-Թուրքիա էներգետիկ ոլորտի համագործակցությունը: Թուրքիայի և Հունաստանի բարձրագույն խորհուրդների համագործակցության՝ դեկտեմբերի 6-ին կայացած երրորդ նիստում կողմերը համատեղ հայտարարություն են արել, ըստ որի՝ իրենք նպատակ են դրել կառուցել գազատարների նոր ցանցեր:

            Հայտարարության մեջ ասված է, որ կողմերը զարգացնելու են երկկողմ և տարածաշրջանային համագործակցությունը էներգետիկ ոլորտում՝ կառուցելով գատարների ենթակառուցվածքներ: Խոսվել է նաև հաջողված ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) թուրք-հունական նախագծի և «Տրանսադրիատիկ» (TAP) (նախագիծն իրականացնում են շվեյցարական EGL, նորվեգական Statoil և գերմանական E.ON Ruhrgas ընկերությունները) և «Տրանսանատոլիական» (TANAP) ադրբեջանա-թուրքական գազամուղների հնարավոր էֆեկտիվության մասին, որոնցով 2020-ից հետո նախատեսվում է գազ արտահանել կասպյան ավազանից դեպի Եվրոպա: Սա նշանակում է, որ ստեղծված իրադրությունից կօգտվի նաև Ադրբեջանը՝ կասպյան ավազանի վառելանյութի համար սպառման շուկա բացելով Եվրոպայում:

            Հատկանշական է, որ Հունաստանի փոխվարչապետ և արտգործնախարար Էվանհելոս Վենիզելոսը դեկտեմբերի 5-ին Աթենքում կազմակերպված թուրք-հունական բիզնես ֆորումի ժամանակ հայտարարել է, որ դեկտեմբերի 1-ին «Հարավային հոսք» նախագիծը չեղյալ հայտարարելուց հետո թուրք-հունական համագործակցությունը ձեռք է բերում առանձնահատուկ նշանակություն:

            Ինչպես հաղորդում է ռուսաստանյան ТАСС գործակալությունը, էներգետիկ ոլորտում մասնագիտացած EIRANEWS.COM կայքի խմբագիր Ջորջ Հաթզիիոանուն (George Hatziioannou) հայտարարել է, թե ռուսական նոր նախագիծը շատ ձեռնտու է Հունաստանին, քանի որ Ռուսաստանից Թուրքիա մտնող 63 միլիարդ խմ գազի շուրջ 50 միլիարդ մնալու է թուրք-հունական սահմանին: Հույները միառժամանակ կարող են օգտագործել ներկայումս գործող գազամուղները, սակայն հետագայում Հարավային Եվրոպայի այլ երկրներ ևս գազ ուղարկելու համար անհրաժեշտ կլինի կառուցել նոր ենթակառուցվածքներ:

            Ադրբեջանական գազը Եվրոպա արտահանելու նպատակով կառուցվող գազամուղը, որի՝ Թուրքիայի տարածքով անցնող հատվածը կոչվում է TANAP, իսկ դրա շարունակությունը մինչև Իտալիա՝ TAP
            Ադրբեջանական գազը Եվրոպա արտահանելու նպատակով կառուցվող գազամուղը, որի՝ Թուրքիայի տարածքով անցնող հատվածը կոչվում է TANAP, իսկ դրա շարունակությունը մինչև Իտալիա՝ TAP
            Սա նշանակում է, որ թուրք-հունական գազամուղերի ենթակառուցվածքները կարող են օգտագործվել նաև «Հարավային հոսք» նախագծի փոխարեն կառուցվելիք նոր և ավելի մեծ ներկրում ապահովող նախագծում՝ Ռուսաստանից Թուրքիա ներմուծվող վառելանյութը դեպի Եվրոպա հասցելու համար:

            Հետաքրքրական է, որ ռուսական գազամատակարարումից զրկված Եվրոպան որպես այլընտրանք զբաղվելու է «Հարավային գազային միջանցք» նախագծով, որը Եվրոպային գազ կմատակարարի կասպյան ավազանից: Այս մասին դեկտեմբերի 8-ին Եվրամիության խորհրդի նիստի ժամանակ հայտարարել է Էներգետիկ միության հարցերով ԵՄ հանձանակատար Մորաշ Շևչովիչը:

            Որպես այլընտրանք առաջարկված նախագիծը նախատեսում է ընդլայնել Հարավային Կովկասով անցնող գազամուղը (Բաքու-Թբիլիսի-Էրզրում), իսկ Թուրքիայից Եվրոպա գազամատակարարումն ապահովել TANAP և TAP գազամուղերով՝ զուգահեռ թուրք-ռուսական նոր նախագծով կառուցվող գազատարներին: Սա նշանակում է, որ Թուրքիայում հետագայում հնարավոր է ծավալվի գազամուղերի երկու ենթակառուցվածքների մրցակցություն:


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Interesting interview. I have been saying all this for very long time.
              And some of our opposition has been so brainwashed to believe that westernisation will bring democracy and economic, social growth that they stopped thinking as to how to protect Armenia's population from oligarkhy or internal corruption and bring much needed changes, and simply ended up parroting what their western sponsors demand.
              I also have been saying all this time that the idea, path and actions of any succesfull opposition have to be rooted in our people and not imported. Especially from powers that use the word democracy to hide their imperial ambitions and in reality will not give a hoot of who and how rules and milks our country, as long as it's under their political and corporate controll.



              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                True democracy can only happen when people are priority in the State........Artsakh is the only one that comes to mind.
                B0zkurt Hunter


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                  Interesting interview. I have been saying all this for very long time.
                  And some of our opposition has been so brainwashed to believe that westernisation will bring democracy and economic, social growth that they stopped thinking as to how to protect Armenia's population from oligarkhy or internal corruption and bring much needed changes, and simply ended up parroting what their western sponsors demand.
                  I also have been saying all this time that the idea, path and actions of any succesfull opposition have to be rooted in our people and not imported. Especially from powers that use the word democracy to hide their imperial ambitions and in reality will not give a hoot of who and how rules and milks our country, as long as it's under their political and corporate controll.
                  ---- that use the word democracy to hide their imperial AMBITIONS ----
                  Well put. I couldn't agree more.
                  Many good programs come from USA & west such as "transparency" & good judicial/governance, but when you look at USA conduct, you see convoluted book keeping from the government to the multi-national corporations to the mega wealthy.
                  When you look at the judicial "favoritism" toward the mega-wealthy then one sees the forked tongue of the USA/west in all it's glory.
                  They use words such as honesty and decency to --- hide --- their imperial ambitions which are dishonest & indecent.
                  Originally posted by Eddo211 View Post
                  True democracy can only happen when people are priority in the State........Artsakh is the only one that comes to mind.
                  how surprising to find a more genuine democracy in Artsahk than probably the entire west.
                  Or is it?


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Why Would the Saudis Deliberately Crash the Oil Markets?
                    Simple: to undermine Tehran.

                    n January 2, 1977, the Shah of Iran made a painful admission about his country’s economy. “We’re broke,” he confided bluntly to his closest aide, court minister Asadollah Alam, in a private meeting. Alam predicted still more dangers to come: “We have squandered every cent we had only to find ourselves checkmated by a single move from Saudi Arabia,” he later wrote in a letter to the shah. “[W]e are now in dire financial peril and must tighten our belts if we are to survive.”

                    The two men were reacting to recent turmoil in the oil markets. A few weeks prior, at an OPEC meeting in Doha, the Saudis had announced they would resist an Iran-led majority vote to increase petroleum prices by 15 percent. (The shah needed the boost to pay for billions in new spending commitments.) King Khalid bin Abdulaziz Al Saud argued that a price hike wasn’t justified when Western economies were still mired in a recession — but he was also eager to place economic constraints on Iran at a time when the shah was ordering nuclear power plants and projecting influence throughout the Middle East. So the Saudis “flooded the markets,” ramping up oil production from 8 million to 11.8 million barrels per day and slashing crude prices. Unable to compete, Iran was quickly driven from the market: The country’s oil production plunged 38 percent in a month. Billions of dollars in anticipated oil revenues vanished, and Iran was forced to abandon its five-year budget estimates.

                    A damaging ripple effect persisted: Over the summer of 1977, industrial manufacturing in Iran fell by 50 percent. Inflation ran between 30 and 40 percent. The government made deep cuts to domestic spending to balance the books, but austerity only made matters worse when thousands of young, unskilled men lost their jobs. Before long, economic distress had eroded middle-class support for the shah’s monarchy — which collapsed two years later in the Iranian Revolution.

                    Today, oil prices have again plummeted, from a high of $115 per barrel in August 2013 to under $60 per barrel in mid December 2014. Western experts, predictably, have seized the opportunity to ponder what cheaper oil might mean for the stock market. As for why prices have dropped, some analysts have suggested it has little to do with any manipulation of Saudi spigots: A December essay in Bloomberg Businessweek credited the American shale revolution with “breaking OPEC’s neck.”

                    There’s no doubt that shale has eroded Saudi Arabia’s “swing power” as the world’s largest oil producer. But thanks to their pumping capacity, reserves, and stockpiles, the Saudis are still more than capable of crashing the oil markets — and willing to do so. In September 2014, they did just that, boosting oil production by half a percent (to 9.6 million barrels per day) in markets already brimming with cheap crude and, a few days later, offering increased discounts to major Asian customers; global prices quickly fell nearly 30 percent.

                    As in 1977, the Saudis instigated this flood for political reasons: Whether foreign analysts believe it or not, oil markets remain important venues in the Saudi-Iranian struggle for supremacy over the Persian Gulf.

                    This isn’t the first time since the late 1970s that Saudi Arabia has used oil as a political weapon against its rival. In November 2006, Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi security consultant connected to Prince Turki al-Faisal, then Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post noting that if “[i]f Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half … it would be devastating to Iran … [and] limit Tehran’s ability to continue funneling hundreds of millions each year to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere.” Two years later, at the height of the global financial crisis, the Saudis acted: They flooded the market, and within six months, oil prices had fallen from their record high of $147 per barrel to just $33. Thus, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began 2009, an election year, struggling with the sudden collapse in government oil revenues and forced to slash popular subsidies and social programs. The election’s contested outcome was accompanied by economic contraction and the worst political violence in Iran since the fall of the shah.

                    Signals of a new flood emerged as early as June 2011. While addressing an audience of senior American and British officials at a NATO operations base, Prince Turki warned Iran not to take advantage of the regional unrest triggered by the Arab Spring. Paraphrasing some of Turki’s comments, the Guardian noted that Iran’s economy could be squeezed hard by “undermining its profits from oil, something the Saudis … were ideally positioned to do.”

                    The Saudis understood, too, that the best time to crash the markets would be when prices were already soft and consumer demand low. In early December, just a few months after Saudi Arabia unleashed its latest oil flood, Obaid wrote in a Reuters article that his government’s decision to depress prices is “going to have a huge effect on the political situation in the Middle East. Iran will come under unprecedented economic and financial pressure as it tries to sustain an economy already battered by international sanctions.” Around the same time, the Saudis were no doubt pleased to see bread prices shoot up by 30 percent in Tehran. (Bread is a staple of the Iranian diet, and its prices are a bellwether for the economy.)

                    On Dec. 10, the Saudi oil minister said his country would keep pumping 9.7 million barrels per day into the global markets, regardless of demand. For their part, the Iranians have shown alarm, if not yet panic. Without naming names — he didn’t have to — President Hassan Rouhani decried the “treacherous” actions of a major oil producer whose “politically motivated” behavior was evidence of “a conspiracy against the interests of the region…. Iran and the people of the region will not forget such conspiracies.” The previous day, Vice President Eshag Jahangiri had described the rapid plunge in oil prices as a “political plot … not a result of supply and demand.”

                    Riyadh’s real hope, if history is any indicator, is that escalated production will force Rouhani’s government to implement an austerity budget that will ultimately stoke underlying social unrest and once again push people into the streets. If this happens, it might not lead to an event as significant as the shah losing his grip on power — but it would reinforce the Saudis’ faith in oil as a potent weapon in the battle to dominate the Middle East. And oil floods, in turn, would likely continue their periodic, dangerous rattling of both the markets and the region.


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Եվրոպայի թուրքական տհաճ անակնկալը Ռուսաստանին
                      20 Դեկտեմբերի 2014,

                      Հայտնի է դարձել, որ Եվրահանձնաժողովը հաստատել է «Եվրամիությանն անդամակցել ձգտող երկրներին բարեփոխումների աջակցության համար» 2 միլիարդ եվրո տրամադրելու 2014 թվականի փաթեթը: 2 միլիարդից մոտ 1 միլիարդը կստանա Թուրքիան: Այդ գումարը հատկացվել է ժողովրդավարության, օրենքի գերիշխանության ամրապնդման, կրթական, սոցիալական, տրանսպորտի և բազմաթիվ այլ ոլորտներում բարեփոխումների համար:

                      Հայտնի է, որ ոչ Եվրամիությունը, ոչ էլ Թուրքիան առանձնապես չեն ձգտում Միությանն այդ երկրի անդամակցությանը: Խնդիրն ակնհայտորեն այլ տեղում է, եւ դատելով միջազգային ներկայիս քաղաքականության տրամաբանությունից՝ ուղղված է Ռուսաստանի դեմ:

                      Ռուսաստանը Թուրքիայի հետ փորձել է սերտ համագործակցություն հաստատել մասնավորապես էներգետիկ ոլորտում, այն բանից հետո, երբ տապալվել են եվրոպական ուղղությամբ ռուսական նախագծերը, մասնավորապես Հարավային հոսք գազատարի կառուցումը: Պուտինի Անկարա կատարած այցից հետո ռուսական կողմը Եվրոպային սպառնաց, որ հիմա գործ են ունենալու էներգակիրների թուրքական երթուղու հետ:

                      Իր հերթին, Թուրքիան փորձում է իր տարածքը դարձնել էներգակոմունիկացիաների կենտրոն, իր ձեռքում պահելով դրանց «փականը»: Թուրքիան ակնհայտորեն օգտվում է Ռուսաստանի ներկայիս իրավիճակից եւ փորձում է իր դիրքն ավելի գերադասելի դարձնել միջազգային ասպարեզում:

                      Պուտինի այցից հետո Անկարա շտապեցին Եվրամիության պատասխանատուները, եւ ահա հայտնի է դարձել Եվրահանձնաժողովի որոշման մասին: Թուրքիան, որը ցուցադրաբար չէր միանում Ռուսաստանի դեմ պատժամիջոցներին եւ հայտարարում էր նրա հետ էներգետիկ խոշոր նախագծերի իրականացման մտադրությունների մասին, երեւում է Ռուսաստանին Եվրոպային է «վաճառել» 1 միլիարդ դոլարով:

                      Պուտինն իր վերջին ասուլիսում հիշել էր Թուրքիայի հետ դարերի հարաբերությունների լուսավոր ու մութ կողմերի մասին: Պուտինը հատկապես հիշատակել էր Աթաթյուրքի ժամանակաշրջանը, որպես ամենալուսավոր պահը: Հիշեցնենք, որ այդ ժամանակ Ռուսաստանը փրկեց թուրքական խորտակվող պետությունը, ի հաշիվ հույների ու հայերի: Հայերը այդ ժամանակաշրջանում ունեցան պատմական ամենամեծ կորուստները:

                      Պետք է նշել, որ Թուրքիան սովորաբար միշտ շահել է Ռուսաստանի հետ հարաբերություններից, նկատի առնելով Մոսկվայի պատմական հակվածությունը թյուրքական աշխարհին: Թուրքիան շահեց նաեւ հիմա, Ռուսաստանի հետ համագործակցությունը վաճառելով 1 միլիարդ դոլարով:

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