Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian Army proactively attacks Nusra, loses a jetfighter
By Zen Adra -
12/03/2016

The Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) launched today proactive airstrikes against Islamic militants in northern Hama, thwarting a wide-scale blitz against Army positions. Military Surveillance Units in al-Mughayr (nearly 17 km to the north of Mahardah city) learned that huge numbers of militants fighting for al-Qaeda franchise in Syria, Jabhet al-Nusra and Jund al-Aqsa are mobilizing with their light and medium-caliber weapons in three nearby villages: Kafr Nabudah, Jabriya and al-Banah, where were expected to launch a surprise attack.

Carrying out its mission, a Syrian Mig-21 cashed immediately after it pounded positions held by Islamic rebels in the area. While pro-rebel activists claimed the aircraft was downed by the militants, a source confirmed to Al Masdar that it crashed due to technical failure. “The pilot was ejected and brought to safety in al-Mughayr”, the source said.

The crashed plane was caught on camera by a pro-rebel activist. However, a closer look at the footage shows no sign whatsoever that the warplane was hit by anti-aircraft weapons.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...es-jetfighter/ | Al-Masdar News

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Cool! I'd like to see the continued rise of right wing movements in Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, etc. They are fed up with Muslims and especially Turks. Islam is backward and thwarts progress and leads to perpetual war.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

FINANCIAL TIMES- London

March 11, 2016
Turkey and Russia — friends for a while, now foes once again
Norman Stone

In modern times, relations have been at the very least correct, often warm, writes Norman Stone

High-level gossip in Ankara has it that there is a personal element to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s desire to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Back in the days when Syria and Turkey had close relations, the Assads went on holiday with the Erdogans.

It is said that afterwards, Mr Assad’s wife, Asma, sent an email to her husband pleading never to be asked to do that again: this was a couple with no languages, she is alleged to have said — he a thug who has read only one book, she a frump interested only in shopping. The email came to the attention of Turkish intelligence, and the rest is history.

However, Mr Assad has survived, thanks to the Russians. And, in November, the Turks shot down a Russian plane for violating their airspace for all of 17 seconds. President Vladimir Putin is also not a man to forget grievances. He has read more than one book, and speaks more than one language; he thinks things through.

Russia’s revenge so far has meant a steep decline in Turkish exports. And the absence of Russian tourists means that more than 400 hotels in the resort of Antalya alone, a favoured destination, are up for sale. It probably also means the recovery of the city of Aleppo by Mr Assad, and maybe also Russia’s encouragement of a Kurdish state which would have a frontier on the Tigris, well inside Turkey.

This might cause commentators to recall the Russo-Turkish wars of the19th century, and various other episodes in the Caucasus or the Balkans. In modern times, however, relations between Russia and Turkey have been at the very least correct, and often warm.

It is true that Tsarist statesmen were required to claim Constantinople (“Tsargrad”) as theirs. But when they saw the problems that would follow, they drew back: better a weak Turkey, controlled by them through an autonomous Armenia, or perhaps even Kurdistan, than a troublesome colony or an English-managed Greek imposition.

In 1833 Russian troops stopped an Egyptian-Syrian army from taking Istanbul. And when, in 1920, the Ottoman Empire was finally collapsing, and the British were promoting the Greek and Armenian causes, the Russians came to the Turks’ rescue. Indeed, you have to wonder if Turkey would even exist without the help it received from Moscow then.

On the National Monument in Taksim Square in Istanbul there are four identifiable figures: Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish republic, is the most obvious. Most surprising, perhaps, is Semyon Aralov, the first Soviet ambassador to Turkey. He co-operated with the Turkish nationalists who had opened up for business on a small scale in Ankara in 1919, resisting the western allies’ plans for Anatolia.

In the summer of 1920, representatives of Sultan Mehmed VI signed the treaty of Sčvres, creating a Greater Armenia, a Greater Greece and perhaps Kurdistan. The Sultan would have become ruler of a quaint emirate.

Resistance to the treaty gathered and won Soviet support. Just as it was being signed, there was a meeting in Moscow between Georgy Chicherin, Soviet commissar for foreign affairs, and Ali Fuat Pasha, who represented Ankara. They agreed that the Soviets would give up Armenia and the Turks would forget about Azerbaijan. Money and weapons then helped the Turks to defeat their enemies.

Each side mistrusted the west. Each also acted against the wilder manifestations of Islam. Atatürk (in his cups, not in public) considered it “a corpse draped round our necks”. His wife corresponded with the sister of Anatoly Lunacharsky, Soviet commissar for enlightenment, on how Turkish peasants could be made literate.
In 1929 Stalin expelled Trotsky, and could find no country willing to take him until the Turks obliged. Trotsky lived there for four years (his first visitor was a Belgian journalist by the name of Georges Simenon — he discovered Trotsky reading Céline).

This all went wrong in 1945, when Stalin blew the dust off old Tsarist dossiers. He took up the Armenian cause and demanded the return of three provinces in eastern Turkey. (NB: slight error, Stalin never asked Kars Ardahan for Armenian SSR, but for his native Georgian SSR....)

In 1947, Turkey got Marshall aid and later joined the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and Nato. And that has worked out to its profit. Stalin’s successor, Nikita Khrushchev, recognised what a mistake the Soviet policy had been, but it was too late for a reversal of alliances. Nevertheless, Soviet-Turkish relations were never particularly bad after that. And after Suleyman Demirel became prime minister of Turkey in 1965, there was intelligent co-operation. Certainly, no planes were shot down.

The justification for the fighter-downing in November so far has been formal. But Turkish aircraft frequently violate Greek airspace, without mortal consequences. Turkey’s response to a momentary Russian violation reflects something else. Russians have been winning wars against Islam since Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1571. Transitory grievances now combine with historic resentments to halt and reverse the Russo-Turkish collaboration that, in the past 15 years in particular, has been beneficial to both sides.

The writer is a fellow of the Batthyany Lajos Foundation and is on leave from Bilkent University, Ankara

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Fatal explosion hits transit hub in Turkish capital Ankara

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/13/people-killed-explosion-ankara-park-turkey-reports

An explosion has ripped through a transit hub in Ankara, killing at least 27 people and wounding 75, the city’s governor has reportedly confirmed.

The large explosion appears to have engulfed a bus and several cars, near to Güvenpark, in the Kizilay neighbourhood of the Turkish capital on Sunday evening.

The office of Ankara’s governor said at least 27 people had been killed in the blast, Associated Press reported. A security official also said the explosion was likely to have been caused by a suicide car bombing........

[arakeretzig]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Fatal explosion hits transit hub in Turkish capital Ankara

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/13/people-killed-explosion-ankara-park-turkey-reports

An explosion has ripped through a transit hub in Ankara, killing at least 27 people and wounding 75, the city’s governor has reportedly confirmed.

The large explosion appears to have engulfed a bus and several cars, near to Güvenpark, in the Kizilay neighbourhood of the Turkish capital on Sunday evening.

The office of Ankara’s governor said at least 27 people had been killed in the blast, Associated Press reported. A security official also said the explosion was likely to have been caused by a suicide car bombing........

Pass the popcorn. I hope turk/kurds start killing each other by the droves.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Pass the popcorn. I hope turk/kurds start killing each other by the droves.

Hold your popcorn.
As long as major touristic sites, like Aya Sophia or Topkapi, Antalya are not seriously targeted, all this is controlled damage...

ex uncontrolled damage is what happened to Tunisia or Egypt, or even Paris attacks...

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ISIS city of Palmyra under threat as government forces inch closer
– Map update
By Chris Tomson -
13/03/2016

Moments ago, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured three key highpoints of Hill 800, Al-Amdan hill and Al-Thar hill in the Ancient Quarries on the outskirts of the Palmyra (i.e Tadmur).

Since last week, the government troops have advanced hundreds of meters daily towards the ancient city of Palmyra which remains under ISIS occupation. For now, less than one mile splits Syrian soldiers from entering the first building blocks in the western districts of the city. However, the Islamic State seems all but willing to concede Palmyra as it lies in the very center of Syria itself.

While some consider Palmyra a mere trophy city, it arguably represents the most vital link between the oil rich deserts in the east and the highly populated western coast of Syria. As such, it remains vital for the Islamic State to keep control of this city. If lost, it could cause a domino effect with the eventual defeat of the caliphate itself.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Government is more determined than ever to capture Palmyra. Therefore, Damascus has called upon the Tiger Forces, the 18th Tank Division, the Desert Hawks Brigade along with the Iraqi pro-government militia of Liwaa Imam Al-‘Ali.

Furthermore, Hezbollah fighters are in the process of deployment while the Russian Airforce carries out dozens of relentless airstrikes daily.

Earlier today, government forces captured several strategic points around the city and reached the archaeological zone in western Palmyra.

Currently, a major battle is taking place at the contested Palmyra Castle which is located at the mountain of Jabal Qassoun which overlooks the city from the west. The historic city of Palmyra, which was captured by ISIS in May of 2015 during a blitz offensive, has witnessed 4000 years of civilization and survived countless battles throughout the ages.

But sadly, the Islamic State has demolished several important UNESCO world heritage sites inside the city. Long-term, the capture of Palmyra will enable the Syrian Arab Army to break the siege imposed by ISIS on the remaining government-held districts inside Deir Ezzor city further east. However, many kilometers of Islamic State territory must be wrestled from ISIS fighters for government forces to achieve this goal.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...er-map-update/ | Al-Masdar News

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

An explosion has ripped through a transit hub in Ankara, killing at least 27 people and wounding 75, the city’s governor has reportedly confirmed.

For a population of 80 million what is 30 some people? By the time you read this article they already increased their population. It has to get to full blown war for one to enjoy their popcorn.

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

For a population of 80 million what is 30 some people? By the time you read this article they already increased their population. It has to get to full blown war for one to enjoy their popcorn.

Nobody in his right mind is expecting Turkey to sink into the Mediterranean or the Black sea.

The measure is the dynamics.
A nation does not only become strong through shear number of its population.

The criteria for a strong nation include political stability, healthy economy, good governance, respect abroad etc.
Here also the trajectory of these qualities give an indication of the vicious circle affecting the state.

Ultimately this dampens Turkeys legitimacy to influence events outside of its borders.

This will not last forever but gives a window of opportunity for interested parties to score strategic scores.

.