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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Karabakh Ready to Welcome Yazidis
    August 21, 2014
    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/69636

    The breakaway territory of Nagorno Karabakh, always on the lookout for ways to boost its population, has offered to shelter Yazidis fleeing from Islamic-State terrorists in Iraq.

    “The Armenian people cannot be indifferent to what is now being done to the Yazidi people,” David Babaian, spokesperson for Karabakh’s de-facto president, Bako Sahakian, commented to RFE/RL’s Armenian service on August 19. “The Yazidis are the only people who have become an integral part of the Armenian people.”

    According to local news outlets, Armenia is estimated to have a Yazidi population of about 40,000. Data is not available for how many Yazidis live in Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian region claimed by Azerbaijan.

    Babaian skirted discussions of how the region’s de-facto officials would provide for any Yazidi arrivals, however — a sensitive question, given Azerbaijan’s claims that Karabakh and its main champion, Armenia, want to rework the territory’s ethnic makeup.

    Armenia’s foreign ministry told RFE/RL that no Yazidis from Iraq have requested asylum or fled to Armenia as yet.

    Rallies, though, were held on August 13 in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, to show support for Iraq’s Yazidis, and in neighboring Georgia, which has been estimated to have a Yazidi community of about 20,000.

    Citing local Yazidi sources, Rudaw.net, a Kurdish news site, reported on August 15 that a handful of Yazidi refugees from Iraq actually already had arrived in Georgia. But the information could not be independently verified.

    The Yazidis, though, are not the only way the conflict in Syria and Iraq has found an echo in the South Caucasus. Karabakh and Armenia both have offered a welcome to ethnic Armenian refugees from Syria; a transition, which, in Armenia’s case, has not always gone particularly smoothly. Some refugees have opted to move on.

    Meanwhile, even as it welcomes victims of the bloodshed in Syria and Iraq, the region has provided perpetrators for the conflict as well. In Georgia, one remote mountain valley is the native home of dreaded IS commander Omar al-Shishani. Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, some young men have headed off to join the call for jihad in Syria.

    For now, though, greater concern appears to be focused on Russia's North Caucasus, long a prooving-ground for Islamic militants.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      ԱՄՆ-ն կճանաչի՞ Արցախի անկախությունը

      ՀԱՅԿԱԶՆ ՂԱՀՐԻՅԱՆ, Գլխավոր խմբագիր
      22 Օգոստոսի 2014,

      ԱՄՆ Կոնգրեսի արտաքին հարաբերությունների հանձնաժողովի նախագահը հայ-ադրբեջանական սահմանին վերջին շրջանի իրադարձությունների կապակցությամբ մատնացույց է արել մեղավոր կողմին՝ Ադրբեջանին: Նրա օրինակին են հետեւել այլ կոնգրեսականներ եւս, ինչպես նաեւ արեւմտյան տարբեր երկրների ներկայացուցիչներ: Սա ինչ որ առումով աննախադեպ երեւույթ է, քանի որ նախկինում նման դեպքերի կապակցությամբ արված հայտարարություններում հավասարության նշան էր դրվում կողմերի միջեւ:

      Ակնհայտ է, որ այս անգամ իր դերն է խաղացել Ռուսաստանի գործոնը, որը վերջին լարվածության հեղինակն էր: Արեւմուտք-Ռուսաստան ներկայիս դիմակայությունն էլ նման հստակ դիրքորոշման պատճառն է դարձել:

      Ռուսաստանը ձգտում է մենաշնորհ հաստատել Ղարաբաղյան կարգավորման մեջ, դուրս մղել Մինսկի խմբին եւ զորք մտցնել Ղարաբաղ, կիսելով Ղարաբաղը եւ ապահովելով իր գերակայությունը Հարավային Կովկասում: Ռուսաստանի այս ծրագրերին աջակցում է Ադրբեջանը:

      Արեւմուտքի հստակ դիրքորոշման մյուս պատճառը հայկական կողմի հստակ գործողություններն էին, որոնք փաստացի տապալեցին ռուս-ադրբեջանական ծրագրերը: Հայկական կողմը դեմ արտահայտվեց խաղաղարար զորքին եւ Ադրբեջանին հարկադրեց խաղաղության, տապալելով ռուս-ադրբեջանական ծրագիրը:

      Ակնհայտ է, որ Մոսկվան եւ Բաքուն չեն հրաժարվելու իրենց մտադրություններից եւ փորձելու են նոր մակարդակի բարձրացնել լարվածությունը: Այս հանգամանքը եւս ընկալվում է Արեւմուտքի կողմից, եւ դա նույնպես նրա հստակ դիրքորոշման պատճառներից մեկն էր:

      Մյուս կողմից, սակայն, արդյոք բավարար են այդ հայտարարությունները պատերազմը կանխելու եւ գլոբալ խնդիրները կարգավորելու հարցերում: Արդյոք Արեւմուտքը, հայտարարություններից բացի, դիմելու է կոնկրետ քայլերի, որոնք կբարձրացնեին անվտանգության մակարդակը եւ կամրապնդեին հայկական դիրքերը տարածաշրջանում, ինչը ներկայում համահունչ է գլոբալ քաղաքականության միտումներին:

      Օրինակ, նման քայլերից մեկը կարող էր լինել ԼՂՀ ճանաչումը, որն ինքնին քաղաքական լուրջ երաշխիքներ կտար հայկական կողմին: ԱՄՆ-ն նման փորձ արդեն ունի. Ամերիկյան մի քանի նահանգներ ճանաչել են Արցախի անկախությունը, ԱՄՆ-ն ուղղակի օգնություն է հատկացնում Արցախին: Բացի այդ, արեւմտյան առաջատար պետությունների խորհրդարաններն ուղղակի կապեր են հաստատել Արցախի խորհրդարանի հետ, կան այլ բնույթի ուղղակի կապեր:

      Մյուս էական քայլը կարող էր լինել ռազմա-քաղաքական աջակցությունը հայկական բանակին, որն ապացուցել է իր մարտունակությունը եւ գլոբալ խնդիրներ լուծելու գործընկեր լինելու կարողությունը: Այդ օգնությունը կարող էր ուղղվել հայկական բանակի վերազինմանը եւ որակական բարեփոխումներին, ինչը տարածաշրջանում ուժերի հավասարակշռության պահպանման, կայունության ու խաղաղության երաշխիք կդառնար:

      Իհարկե, այստեղ առաջանում է հայկական կողմից նախաձեռնությունների խնդիրը: Նման նախաձեռնություններ չկան: Հայաստանի ԱԳՆ-ն դարձել է Ռուսաստանի ԱԳՆ կցորդը եւ սպասարկում է նրա կարիքները, Հայաստանի պետական-քաղաքական կառույցները գտնվում են Մոսկվայի ենթակայության տակ:

      Մյուս կողմից, սակայն, կա հայկական բանակը, փաստացի միակ կառույցը, որն այս պայմաններում իրացնում է հայկական շահերը եւ ապացուցել է, որ կարող է լուրջ գործընկեր լինել շահագրգիռ պետությունների համար: Հայկական բանակը կարող է լավ պլացդարմ դառնալ հայկական նախաձեռնությունների համար, եւ թերեւս վաղուց արդեն ժամանակն է զբաղվել այդ գործով:

      Հայտնի ու պարզ վիճակ է՝ պետք է պահանջել ու ընկերություն անել նրանց հետ, ում շահերը համընկնում են Հայաստանի շահերին: Հաջողության ավելի պարզ բանաձեւ քաղաքականության մեջ չկա:

      - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....ev8k3017.dpuf

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
        ԱՄՆ-ն կճանաչի՞ Արցախի անկախությունը

        ՀԱՅԿԱԶՆ ՂԱՀՐԻՅԱՆ, Գլխավոր խմբագիր
        22 Օգոստոսի 2014,

        ԱՄՆ Կոնգրեսի արտաքին հարաբերությունների հանձնաժողովի նախագահը հայ-ադրբեջանական սահմանին վերջին շրջանի իրադարձությունների կապակցությամբ մատնացույց է արել մեղավոր կողմին՝ Ադրբեջանին: Նրա օրինակին են հետեւել այլ կոնգրեսականներ եւս, ինչպես նաեւ արեւմտյան տարբեր երկրների ներկայացուցիչներ: Սա ինչ որ առումով աննախադեպ երեւույթ է, քանի որ նախկինում նման դեպքերի կապակցությամբ արված հայտարարություններում հավասարության նշան էր դրվում կողմերի միջեւ:

        Ակնհայտ է, որ այս անգամ իր դերն է խաղացել Ռուսաստանի գործոնը, որը վերջին լարվածության հեղինակն էր: Արեւմուտք-Ռուսաստան ներկայիս դիմակայությունն էլ նման հստակ դիրքորոշման պատճառն է դարձել:

        Ռուսաստանը ձգտում է մենաշնորհ հաստատել Ղարաբաղյան կարգավորման մեջ, դուրս մղել Մինսկի խմբին եւ զորք մտցնել Ղարաբաղ, կիսելով Ղարաբաղը եւ ապահովելով իր գերակայությունը Հարավային Կովկասում: Ռուսաստանի այս ծրագրերին աջակցում է Ադրբեջանը:

        Արեւմուտքի հստակ դիրքորոշման մյուս պատճառը հայկական կողմի հստակ գործողություններն էին, որոնք փաստացի տապալեցին ռուս-ադրբեջանական ծրագրերը: Հայկական կողմը դեմ արտահայտվեց խաղաղարար զորքին եւ Ադրբեջանին հարկադրեց խաղաղության, տապալելով ռուս-ադրբեջանական ծրագիրը:

        Ակնհայտ է, որ Մոսկվան եւ Բաքուն չեն հրաժարվելու իրենց մտադրություններից եւ փորձելու են նոր մակարդակի բարձրացնել լարվածությունը: Այս հանգամանքը եւս ընկալվում է Արեւմուտքի կողմից, եւ դա նույնպես նրա հստակ դիրքորոշման պատճառներից մեկն էր:

        Մյուս կողմից, սակայն, արդյոք բավարար են այդ հայտարարությունները պատերազմը կանխելու եւ գլոբալ խնդիրները կարգավորելու հարցերում: Արդյոք Արեւմուտքը, հայտարարություններից բացի, դիմելու է կոնկրետ քայլերի, որոնք կբարձրացնեին անվտանգության մակարդակը եւ կամրապնդեին հայկական դիրքերը տարածաշրջանում, ինչը ներկայում համահունչ է գլոբալ քաղաքականության միտումներին:

        Օրինակ, նման քայլերից մեկը կարող էր լինել ԼՂՀ ճանաչումը, որն ինքնին քաղաքական լուրջ երաշխիքներ կտար հայկական կողմին: ԱՄՆ-ն նման փորձ արդեն ունի. Ամերիկյան մի քանի նահանգներ ճանաչել են Արցախի անկախությունը, ԱՄՆ-ն ուղղակի օգնություն է հատկացնում Արցախին: Բացի այդ, արեւմտյան առաջատար պետությունների խորհրդարաններն ուղղակի կապեր են հաստատել Արցախի խորհրդարանի հետ, կան այլ բնույթի ուղղակի կապեր:

        Մյուս էական քայլը կարող էր լինել ռազմա-քաղաքական աջակցությունը հայկական բանակին, որն ապացուցել է իր մարտունակությունը եւ գլոբալ խնդիրներ լուծելու գործընկեր լինելու կարողությունը: Այդ օգնությունը կարող էր ուղղվել հայկական բանակի վերազինմանը եւ որակական բարեփոխումներին, ինչը տարածաշրջանում ուժերի հավասարակշռության պահպանման, կայունության ու խաղաղության երաշխիք կդառնար:

        Իհարկե, այստեղ առաջանում է հայկական կողմից նախաձեռնությունների խնդիրը: Նման նախաձեռնություններ չկան: Հայաստանի ԱԳՆ-ն դարձել է Ռուսաստանի ԱԳՆ կցորդը եւ սպասարկում է նրա կարիքները, Հայաստանի պետական-քաղաքական կառույցները գտնվում են Մոսկվայի ենթակայության տակ:

        Մյուս կողմից, սակայն, կա հայկական բանակը, փաստացի միակ կառույցը, որն այս պայմաններում իրացնում է հայկական շահերը եւ ապացուցել է, որ կարող է լուրջ գործընկեր լինել շահագրգիռ պետությունների համար: Հայկական բանակը կարող է լավ պլացդարմ դառնալ հայկական նախաձեռնությունների համար, եւ թերեւս վաղուց արդեն ժամանակն է զբաղվել այդ գործով:

        Հայտնի ու պարզ վիճակ է՝ պետք է պահանջել ու ընկերություն անել նրանց հետ, ում շահերը համընկնում են Հայաստանի շահերին: Հաջողության ավելի պարզ բանաձեւ քաղաքականության մեջ չկա:

        - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....ev8k3017.dpuf
        Here is another one from Lragir thats full of xxxx from beginning to the end. Number one, it talks us into false hopes of eventual US help in solving Artsakh conflict, where in actuality US is the one who is responcible for the latest fighting in Artsakh front. Number two, it tries to separate our government and army by denying that the army and government are the same in this latest conflict. If not the government, the army would not be what it is now.
        Seriosely, this trashy traitors talk about false US recognition of Artsakh, when just fiew weeks ago, Walrick and US ambasador announced state departament's policy of solving the conflict by restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Lragir is trying to blunt our just criticism and natural anger towards US for this. It talks of russia "naturally" trying to incite war in hopes of installing it's army in Artsakh as a reality, but does not speak about Walrick's and heffern's persistent declarations that the status quo cannot continue in artsakh any longer. Everybody knows that the only way to change the status quo is by war. According to US declarations, this fragile peace cannot continue any longer. So who has been inciting war there?
        Just a fiew weeks before the conflict US had criticised Aliev's human right record and called for baku to embrace western democratic values(in diplomatic language this means to establish closer ties with west), otherwise, by the mouth of US's baku ambassador warned that a Maidan like unrest would follow in Baku too. A noose around Aliev's neck has been tightening for some time and making him more desperate to eradicate the opposition and turn the publics attention to Artsakh conflict by inciting border skirmishes.
        So US in one hand holds the carrot for Baku (Territorial integrity) and on the other a stick(a maidan putsch). Baku's border actions were prompted by all this.
        Right after fighting started, Walrick declared that US does not concider the conflict frozen anymore and suggested introducing international peacekeepers (NATO)in Artsakh border.
        The war that US and NATO need in caucasus was dwarfed for now by our army/people/government unity and sochi meeting.
        But Lragir is concistently saying that Russians want to install army in Artsakh. In reality, as Armenia and Artsakh are one entity in military, and russian army allready being in Armenia, does not need to restart any war, because it works in tandem with armenian and Artsakh forces.
        It is NATO, who desperately wants to replace russians and install NATO bases in caucasus. And the only way to achieve this is tru war and destruction, just like anywhere else it has done.
        Now since meeting in Sochi(right after of which tensions started to go down), anybody claiming that US wants to bring peace in Artsakh and Russia inciting war is hoping to make a fool of us.
        It has been spoken widely in US media and political circles by people like Brzesinski, in order to isolate russia and iran, it is necessary to engulf the former USSR territory and middle east in turmoil(ring of fire). We, leaving here have read and know what it is. But Lragir being in Armenia, has taken the task of fooling the people there. Making the US look like peace bringer and savior. Which is like putting the sheep to sleep for slaughter, instead, spreading as much hatred as possible towards russia.
        It is interesing that just like in Ukraine, US has been cultivating nationalistic feelings and anger towards each other in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
        Number one is the refusal to recognise which side has been the perpetrator in border conflicts for the past years by not pointing the finger to the guilty but calling for both in general.
        It broadcasts the radio free europe in both countries in both languages, and in Armenia propagandes about Azerbaijani nationalism and human rights record and holds our view. In azerbaijan it broadcasts about Armenian human rights violations, emigration and warmongering and holds the view of their territorial integrity and return of refugees. What is this but inciting tensions and false hope of solving the issue by war?
        Remember Ramil safarov? A NATO member country released him, NATO (US) knowing that he was gonna be freed and idolised and that is going to bring more anger and hatred in Armenia and no hope of ever seing azeris as humans. It also would create a further wave of nationalism and spread even more the idea in azerbaijan that the only way to deal with Armenians is to butcher them.
        Lragir falsely advertises that some US congressmen have pinpointed Azerbaijan in latest conflict. But the state dept is silent and talks the same as allways. Lragir silent about this.
        There is an equal or more number of US congressmen holding territorial intergrity of Azerbijan and the need to restore it, in their speaches. Lragir is silent about this too. It talks about some states recognising the independence of Artsakh. But we, leaving here know that a state can declare brotherhood to somebody, but the federal government(state dept) can declare war on it and bomb it. This is the US political landscape. We know it. But people in Armenia Don't. Easy to fool them.
        "hesa hesa amerikan galis e urakhatsek" LOL....
        Now is this more of a truth or russian propaganda? People will agree or not.
        For you Vrej, I know it is 100% russian propaganda, or some 100 percent realpolitics not worth talking about.
        How can a slave criticise allmighty and everright west?
        Last edited by Hakob; 08-23-2014, 02:17 PM.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Originally posted by Hakob View Post
          Here is another one from Lragir thats full of xxxx from beginning to the end. Number one, it talks us into false hopes of eventual US help in solving Artsakh conflict, where in actuality US is the one who is responcible for the latest fighting in Artsakh front. Number two, it tries to separate our government and army by denying that the army and government are the same in this latest conflict. If not the government, the army would not be what it is now.
          Seriosely, this trashy traitors talk about false US recognition of Artsakh, when just fiew weeks ago, Walrick and US ambasador announced state departament's policy of solving the conflict by restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Lragir is trying to blunt our just criticism and natural anger towards US for this. It talks of russia "naturally" trying to incite war in hopes of installing it's army in Artsakh as a reality, but does not speak about Walrick's and heffern's persistent declarations that the status quo cannot continue in artsakh any longer. Everybody knows that the only way to change the status quo is by war. According to US declarations, this fragile peace cannot continue any longer. So who has been inciting war there?
          Just a fiew weeks before the conflict US had criticised Aliev's human right record and called for baku to embrace western democratic values(in diplomatic language this means to establish closer ties with west), otherwise, by the mouth of US's baku ambassador warned that a Maidan like unrest would follow in Baku too. A noose around Aliev's neck has been tightening for some time and making him more desperate to eradicate the opposition and turn the publics attention to Artsakh conflict by inciting border skirmishes.
          So US in one hand holds the carrot for Baku (Territorial integrity) and on the other a stick(a maidan putsch). Baku's border actions were prompted by all this.
          Right after fighting started, Walrick declared that US does not concider the conflict frozen anymore and suggested introducing international peacekeepers (NATO)in Artsakh border.
          The war that US and NATO need in caucasus was dwarfed for now by our army/people/government unity and sochi meeting.
          But Lragir is concistently saying that Russians want to install army in Artsakh. In reality, as Armenia and Artsakh are one entity in military, and russian army allready being in Armenia, does not need to restart any war, because it works in tandem with armenian and Artsakh forces.
          It is NATO, who desperately wants to replace russians and install NATO bases in caucasus. And the only way to achieve this is tru war and destruction, just like anywhere else it has done.
          Now since meeting in Sochi(right after of which tensions started to go down), anybody claiming that US wants to bring peace in Artsakh and Russia inciting war is hoping to make a fool of us.
          It has been spoken widely in US media and political circles by people like Brzesinski, in order to isolate russia and iran, it is necessary to engulf the former USSR territory and middle east in turmoil(ring of fire). We, leaving here have read and know what it is. But Lragir being in Armenia, has taken the task of fooling the people there. Making the US look like peace bringer and savior. Which is like putting the ship to sleep for slaughter, instead, spreading as much hatred as possible towards russia.
          It is interesing that just like in Ukraine, US has been cultivating nationalistic feelings and anger towards each other in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
          Number one is the refusal to recognise which side has been the perpetrator in border conflicts for the past years by not pointing the finger to the guilty but calling for both in general.
          It broadcasts the radio free europe in both countries in both languages, and in Armenia propagandes about Azerbaijani nationalism and human rights record and holds our view. In azerbaijan it broadcasts about Armenian human rights violations, emigration and warmongering and holds the view of their territorial integrity and return of refugees. What is this but inciting tensions and false hope of solving the issue by war?
          Remember Ramil safarov? A NATO member country released him, NATO (US) knowing that he was gonna be freed and idolised and that is going to bring more anger and hatred in Armenia and no hope of ever seing azeris as humans. It also would create a further wave of nationalism and spread even more the idea in azerbaijan that the only way to deal with Armenians is to butcher them.
          Lragir falsely advertises that some US congressmen have pinpointed Azerbaijan in latest conflict. But the state dept is silent and talks the same as allways. Lragir silent about this.
          There is an equal or more number of US congressmen holding territorial intergrity of Azerbijan and the need to restore it, in their speaches. Lragir is silent about this too. It talks about some states recognising the independence of Artsakh. But we, leaving here know that a state can declare brotherhood to somebody, but the federal government(state dept) can declare war on it and bomb it. This is the US political landscape. We know it. But people in Armenia Don't. Easy to fool them.
          "hesa hesa amerikan galis e urakhatsek" LOL....
          Now is this more of a truth or russian propaganda? People will agree or not.
          For you Vrej, I know it is 100% russian propaganda, or some 100 percent realpolitics not worth talking about.
          How can a slave criticise allmighty and everright west?
          An excellent analysis of USA conduct and intention by Hakob.
          The USA govt/elites care only about themselves and --- NO ONE ELSE ---.
          The USA govt/elites will sell you and me and our mothers and our country to the wolves faster than you can blink your eye.
          PLEASE heed Hakob's words and accurate analysis.
          HARK

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Originally posted by Artashes View Post
            An excellent analysis of USA conduct and intention by Hakob.
            The USA govt/elites care only about themselves and --- NO ONE ELSE ---.
            The USA govt/elites will sell you and me and our mothers and our country to the wolves faster than you can blink your eye.
            PLEASE heed Hakob's words and accurate analysis.

            My Dear,
            Of course it will, as every Emire, since ever.
            Who said the contrary, to begin with?

            Just to compare, some other would be empire is selling its own keen, just now.....

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Hakob View Post
              Here is another one from Lragir-------- everright west?
              My Dear,

              Permit me a short question.
              Have you ever read the Biskek protocols of May 92.
              And if so, do you still remember the points?
              Last edited by Vrej1915; 08-23-2014, 03:40 PM.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Artashes View Post
                An excellent analysis of USA conduct and intention by Hakob.
                The USA govt/elites care only about themselves and --- NO ONE ELSE ---.
                The USA govt/elites will sell you and me and our mothers and our country to the wolves faster than you can blink your eye.
                PLEASE heed Hakob's words and accurate analysis.
                An interesting point, Artashes, is the latest repeated declarations of Armenia and Artsakh presidents and defence ministers of both countries that we don't need any peacekeeping force securing our borders against Azerbaijan. Our military forces are perfectly capable of doing that.
                In reality they were sending message to US and Europe that any western peacekeepers are not welcomed here. They have been doing this for the past year, which has skipped publics notice overall.
                And for the past year or so, US has been trying to create situation there that NATO can sneak in. It has been beating Alievs head with human rights and democracy issues and at the same time has markedly hardened it's position in misnk groop as pro Azerbaijani.
                Nobody talks about that (well some of our government circles have vaguely mentioned it for the ones that know how to interpret it) the latest border skirmishes were designed not as any strategic advancement moves, but an attempt to draw Armenian forces into taking over positions from where the azeri fire and incursions were happening. They were done because of US and NATO(Turkey) pressure. This is a responce to our defence ministry's declaration that any border incursions or shootings we will answer with incomparable harsher punitive actions. They were hoping that we would act like Israel and penetrate deep to clean up. This would create a situation where we would be seen as the aggressor and in the following war it would look like Azerbaijan defending itself against us (the situation would turn to this scenario anyway, US or others know military readiness of both countries allways).
                The conflict would quickly escalate, turn critical with big losses and it would be very easy to overtun the government in Baku(with US and Turkey's active participation). At this moment, just like in Ukraine and elsewhere the situation would become an international magnitude event. It would get out of russia's control. UN and NATO would be fully involved, which means full involvement and by US. The new government in baku would ask for international help in restoring peace and thats where US/EU/UN woud step in by introducing international (NATO) forces. There is nothing that russia could do. Most it could do is quickly move forces into Artsakh, but opposing it in Azerbaijan would be sitting NATO. The next step to squize russians out would be to get US's ally Georgia to close the border with Armenia under conflict pretext (it is so easy to create one between Georgia and Armenia). I am not excluding that at this time NATO could install forces in Georgia for Georgian "security".
                In the presence of total blockade and western pressure our government would loose control and collapse. We would be smothered and weakened to the point of kicking russians out and then accepting whatever conclusion US dictates us. And it will not be pro Armenian one. There is the main NATO ally (turkey) to satisfy there. IF they say get out of Artsakh, we will have no other way but to obey them for the sake of saving people in Armenia. Besides, US would be very interested in becoming the savior for Azerbaijan and the power that solves Artsakh issue "justly".
                We have to remember that Azerbaijan has the oil, we have nothing. If Russian forces are gone and Azerbaijan and Georgia are under US control, we would be just a piece of land with no value for US.
                Now this is why russia tries to keep both Armenia and Azerbaijan from restarting any war. The only way to do this is to saturate both countries with arms and make the prospect of war very scary for both by keeping a balance of menacing arms on both sides. It may sound very crazy, but this is what russians think. They think that this way they can keep Azerbaijan from becoming a western client and scare Armenia into not joining European associacion. If we went with europe, russia would arm Azerbaijan so quickly to a level that in a quick war they would destroy Artsakh at least. At the same time this arms race helps to keep Aliev in power. It keeps the public busy with border issues and Arms race. And Aliev knows that if given the chance, US would quickly remove him from presidency and create a more fractured and factioned government in order to controll Azerbaijan fully. So it is no coincidence that Aliev installed a police chief as a defence minister and purchases all those Otocars and other light but maneuverable equipment that are more for population control then mountainous warfare. He is scared to death from Nato sponsored putsch. Heavier the military is armed, more power Aliev has internally and abroad.
                That is why Aliev put his tail between his legs and went to Sochi and negotiated Putins de escalation.
                I can guarantee to you that all those trash like Mouradian, Hayrumian or badalian know this too. But hey.
                They have been filling public mind that russia is the one pushing for war. That all those declarations by our officials are meant to tell the russians that we do not want russians in Artsakh. Even if russia had any thought of using Artsakh as a bait in bringing Azerbaijan any closer to it in the past (which I myself daubt, not the way that our opposition says anywhay), it has evaporated in this tence situation, after Ukraine events. Now any change in caucasus status quo would be catastrofic for russia. They cannot afford to alienate Armenia or Azerbaijan. All they can do is to arm both and keep them satisfied of Russia for their security.
                But because of lragir and some opposition and US agents like Mouradian and others, our public started believing that those forces that our officials are talking of not wanting in war zone are the russian ones, not US.
                That is why I say that our opposition has become worse that the oligarkhs in their desire to grab power at any cost.
                They participate fully in any false information and propaganda spread no matter how dangerous it is.
                Last edited by Hakob; 08-24-2014, 08:00 PM.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                  An interesting point, Artashes, is the latest repeated declarations of Armenia and Artsakh presidents and defence ministers of both countries that we don't need any peacekeeping force securing our borders against Azerbaijan. Our military forces are perfectly capable of doing that.
                  In reality they were sending -------dangerous it is.
                  My Dear,
                  Your vision is based on assumptions that have nothing to do with reality.
                  It is not even disinformation.
                  It has just nothing to do with reality.
                  I will not argue with.
                  All I advise you, if you really want to know real facts, make some contacts with people more or less informed, first or second hand by the matters you are so sure about.
                  There are quite a lot of people , if not thousands, but at least a couple of hundreds, in Yerevan and Stepanakert, or in main Minsk Group capitals, among Armenian MID or MD circles.
                  You may not get `classified` info, but the open `secret` part will be enough, to shake your vision upside down.

                  On this, I consider that we are done.

                  Respectfully, even if in total disagreement.
                  Yours.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    The Israeli-made Hermes 450 drone downed by Iran over Natanz took off from Azerbaijan
                    DEBKAfile


                    The Israeli Hermes 450 drone downed Aug. 23 over the uranium enrichment facility in central Iran took off from Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Airbase, DEBKAfile’s military and Iranian sources report. Tests by Iranian aviation experts and intelligence personnel indicated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commanders who originally attributed the takeoff to Saudi Arabia spoke too soon.

                    The Azerbaijani canton of Nakhchivan, bordering Iran, Armenia, and Turkey, hosts a small military airbase. Three years ago, another Hermes 450 used it as a jumping-off point towards Armenia, where the Armenian air defense shot it down.

                    In his Monday Aug. 25 announcement, Revolutionary Guards Air Force Commander Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said it had not taken to the skies from Israel, but did not specify its provenance. He also fell short of attributing the drone to Israel, announcing only that the plane was an Israeli-made Hermes 450 with an operational range of 800 kilometers. Iran’s Arabic television station Al-Alam displayed parts of the drone on air, but they showed no Israeli identification markings.

                    Armed with the fact that Israel is 1,100 flying kilometers from Iran, many Israeli military analysts misleadingly went to great lengths to claim that the images offered by the Revolutionary Guards were not of a Hermes 450 or of any aircraft in the service of Israel. Because of its wide-ranging satellite surveillance coverage, the analysts argued, Israel has no need to risk sending a drone armed with classified intelligence systems into Iranian airspace.
                    These claims simply don’t hold water.

                    DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the Hermes 450 boasts a range of video and still cameras that can capture extremely high-resolution color images. Thermal imaging devices allow the cameras to operate in poor visibility and almost any weather condition.

                    Without specifying who dispatched the drone, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Deghan announced that his country would retaliate by supplying arms to Palestinians in the West Bank. He did not detail how these weapons transfers would be carried our, or for which groups they are intended.
                    According to our sources, this vague response points to frustration in Tehran over its general helplessness in the face of regular drone flights every few weeks from Nakhchivan over its nuclear facilities. The drones measure radioactive levels, data for the accurate calculation of the progress of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

                    Iran has tried for two years to down these drones – without success, with this week’s incident providing a notable exception. Iran has repeatedly attempted to electronically control trespassing UAVs and down them intact, in the same way as they downed a complete American RQ-170 in December 2011. But so far, they have not obtained a complete Israeli drone.

                    last Saturday, the Iranians shot down the Hermes by means of an anti-air missile ambush, prompting a certain amount of boasting from Tehran. But the UAV was not a stealth craft as the Iranians claimed and much of their crowing is intended to cover up their long record of failure. Indeed, the drone was already 300 km inside Iranian airspace from Nakhchivan before it was detected.

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                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      http://www.rferl.org/contentinfograp.../25441983.html

                      Gazprom prices in Europe.

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