Agriculture

[Haykakan]

Re: Agriculture

You would be surprised how much trade with the turk would benefit us economicaly. Like i said if things get abusive by either side you can always shut the border again. Economicaly there is great potential here but the economy is not the only thing that needs to be considered here.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Agriculture

You would be surprised how much trade with the turk would benefit us economicaly. Like i said if things get abusive by either side you can always shut the border again. Economicaly there is great potential here but the economy is not the only thing that needs to be considered here.

I already see it in everyday life

Can you please specify what would we export more than we do now, apart electricity, profits going into russian company's pockets?
Specific examples, not generalities... maybe you know something I do not?

[Haykakan]

Re: Agriculture

You just made a important point. The trade exists even with the borders closed. If you open the border trade will be even easier both ways. Just as if not more importantly the open border gets us access to turkish ports and cheaper routes to Europe. Trade can lead to a great deal of other things to socially, politically , etc.. I do not have any magic answers but mutual trade wo agendas can be great for both sides. As i mentioned before it is a different matter if this is ethical or not-but ethics or no ethics as you already pointed it out-its happening anyways.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Agriculture

You just made a important point. The trade exists even with the borders closed. If you open the border trade will be even easier both ways. Just as if not more importantly the open border gets us access to turkish ports and cheaper routes to Europe. Trade can lead to a great deal of other things to socially, politically , etc.. I do not have any magic answers but mutual trade wo agendas can be great for both sides. As i mentioned before it is a different matter if this is ethical or not-but ethics or no ethics as you already pointed it out-its happening anyways.

Of course the trade exists!
Who said no?
And it exists 99% at our expense.
We only import, hardly because of the blockade, but the trade is one sided, and we export practically nothing but cheap slaves who may tend to turn to prostitutes, for some....

Now, in your opinion, if the border is open with no restraint, what will happen?
That will make turkish products even cheaper, our's less competitive from the low point they are...
Have no idea?
Go and see what Georgia's economy is like....

Before opening the turkish border, first put order in your home...
Put an end to monopoly (if not the little economy generated by less transport fees will end in the pockets of Malatiayi Samo, etc....)
People expressing 'La palice' truths, about the theoretical goods of opening border with Turkey have no idea about realities....

This is not the EU!
It is not Germany/France relations... if compared, it must look more like something of Nazi Germani/Warsaw Ghetto like relationship... when it comes to economics.
As long as the "Nazis" are in power, no chance any of any "honest" trade...
And till now, "Nazis" are still in Power in Ankara... and no sign of change at all.
So what are we talking about?
The Good of a couple of Oligarkhs? In my view they are already rich enough, even if they will always cry for more...

Once again, ending the blockade is an other matter.
It will never effectively happen, as long as Nazi/Ittihadists are in power, by their own will and acceptance;
These are antinomic realities;
Someone must force their hand. Without force, and an angry 'policeman', it will never happen.
Thank's God, signs of hope do appear... the "sick man" of Europe will finally crumble, due to its essence. Just a matter of time.
In the mean time, we need to ask for our lands, to our access, to our sea, to our Drabizon port, not as a favor, but as a lawful owner, asking retribution, and return of it's lands....
Provided we do not sell our rights for the sake of a couple of mafioso/oligarkhs, sooner or later, our day will come.
We waited for 100 years, we can afford waiting for an other 20...

In the mean time, let's forget about free trade... it is hilarious!

We must ask for our Lands, not acces to EU, however unreal it may sound today.... (look how they do ask for Yerevan!) and as a first step, free access to our sea, end of blockade, not open border with Nazi/itihadists...
If not, you will have an "end of blockade", with no chance at all of free acces to any port...
Look how the Georgians are looting our trade roots...

In your opinion, what will force Turks to do better??

--------
It is by far much more real, that we will eventually get our lands back, one way or an other, rather than have "normal/honest" trade with Ittihadist/Nazis...
It will NEVER HAPPEN, we know it, so why fool ourselves??
We may perhaps trade with futur generation of "post-ittihadist" torks, may be... but not in our lifetime.
Let's Forget about this nonsense...

If something must be done, is stop import of Any Turkish Good that is Produced in Armenia, by rule of law (just as azaris do officially about our products, and torkey as a matter of fact unofficially....)

_______

So, returning to your point:
What kind of export did you have in mind, when talking of benefits??

[Haykakan]

Re: Agriculture

I do not really have any problem with what you said here. Yes they are nazis and yes we have olis. Like i said earlier Armenia does not reside in a "normal" part of the worldwith "normal" neighbors. As for benefits its about comparative advantage which is easily confused with absolute advantage. Free trade is based on each party doing what they do best "specialization". Even if one party has a absolute advantage in everything as you say Turky does, the two sides can still benefit greatly from trading with each other by specializing in what they do best (even if our best is never as good as the turks-although i very much doubt this is always the case as you imply). Let me explain further..lets assume turky and armenia both make nothing but tomatose and peppers. Lets say that turks are better at making both tomatose and pepppers then armenians. Lets also assume the turk is better at making tomatose then making peppers. Lets say armenians is equally good at makig tomatoes and peppers but cannot make any of them better then the turk. Since the opportunity cost(what it has to give up) of the turk to make peppers is higher then armenias opportunnity cost (armenia does not give up as many tomatoes to make peppers as the turk does) It would make sense to have turky make all the tomatoes while armenia makes all the peppers. In this situation both sides will make and consume more tomatoes and peppers togather then they would without trading. Specialization and comparative advantage are the reasons why free trade works so well. You do not need to better then the other guy at anything in order to greatly benefit from free trade. You can chek this stuff out in any economic book. I actually did research on trade between turkey and armenia while working on my master degree and the results indeed showed both sides would benefit from trade with armenia benefiting considerably more then the turks. The question here is not an economic one (free trade would without question benefit both sides) but it is a political/ethical one.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Agriculture

I do not really have any problem with what you said here. Yes they are nazis and yes we have olis. Like i said earlier Armenia does not reside in a "normal" part of the worldwith "normal" neighbors. As for benefits its about comparative advantage which is easily confused with absolute advantage. Free trade is based on each party doing what they do best "specialization". Even if one party has a absolute advantage in everything as you say Turky does, the two sides can still benefit greatly from trading with each other by specializing in what they do best (even if our best is never as good as the turks-although i very much doubt this is always the case as you imply). Let me explain further..lets assume turky and armenia both make nothing but tomatose and peppers. Lets say that turks are better at making both tomatose and pepppers then armenians. Lets also assume the turk is better at making tomatose then making peppers. Lets say armenians is equally good at makig tomatoes and peppers but cannot make any of them better then the turk. Since the opportunity cost(what it has to give up) of the turk to make peppers is higher then armenias opportunnity cost (armenia does not give up as many tomatoes to make peppers as the turk does) It would make sense to have turky make all the tomatoes while armenia makes all the peppers. In this situation both sides will make and consume more tomatoes and peppers togather then they would without trading. Specialization and comparative advantage are the reasons why free trade works so well. You do not need to better then the other guy at anything in order to greatly benefit from free trade. You can chek this stuff out in any economic book. I actually did research on trade between turkey and armenia while working on my master degree and the results indeed showed both sides would benefit from trade with armenia benefiting considerably more then the turks. The question here is not an economic one (free trade would without question benefit both sides) but it is a political/ethical one.

My dear,
You are giving me a free lecture on free economics
Thank You
This is only theory, and all the 'studies' showing we would benefit from that free trade are pure BS imagined on the shores of the Potomak, and blessed once sent on the shores of the Moskwa ...
This is pure BS propaganda.
I still ask anybody to show me in real examples, in which sector we may gain, if free trade exist in real life with Ittihadist turkey, not in theory with Switzerland or Sweeden....

All I am asking for, is just one single field? Product... with real benefits expected.
(PS: Do not tell xxxellery: the good value of our handcraft has already its markets, we can afford bypassing Bolis.
IT sector? The valuable skills are already exported...;
The only industries that could present a certain interest for torks, have already their markets....)

All the BS studies are based on the hypothesis, assumption, that we will have 'cheap' transport and access to EU in cheaper rail links...
The problem is, this is never going to happen.
To make it happen, someone must force the ittihadists to do something conter nature for them.
Who's going to force by today?

Conclusion:
If we pay 5000 USD for a container between Yerevan and Marseille or Rotterdam via Poti or Batum, (of wich 2500 is 'spent' between Poti and Pakradashen...) we will get at best 4500 USD when passing by ittihadist' hands... and the spared 500 will end 90% in an Oligarkh's pocket, and a symbolic 50 USD will be offered to 'the' population... and this at best...

The end of the blockade will not at all imply "free" economy at home, as long as the economic system is the same.
This is our home made BS Propaganda....
And we can perfectly change our system for a much more efficient, productive, "fair" one, without ending the blockade....

This is absolutely not to justify the blockade..;
Ending it is our very basic right, not by begging or trading that right, but by getting our sea access we are entitled to.

------------
Just to end this:
I do live in a realist world, and I see ittihadists on the other side of the Akhuryan, not Germans or Finns.
I personally do not see the benefit we may get, by having a free trade with those guys.
But I do see all the losses we will have
If I am wrong, than please give me concrete examples, not in theory.... wich field will benefit from free access? And what's the benefit for our state and Nation, at wich cost?
(please avoid US sponsored BS, used as packaging for the 'protocols' .... )

----------
PS: I may be wrong, but I think you are making one wrong assumption:
You are assuming manpower is cheaper in Armenia compared to Torkey??
If so, then you are very wrong.
Armenian statistics on wages are BS too...
Try to find a "productive" worker for less than 300 USD in Armenia..., in real life, not in NSA statistics...
I am not sure, but probably wages are not much better in Van or Kars...

[Vahram]

Re: Agriculture

My dear,
You are giving me a free lecture on free economics
Thank You
This is only theory, and all the 'studies' showing we would benefit from that free trade are pure BS imagined on the shores of the Potomak, and blessed once sent on the shores of the Moskwa ...

I have never seen you smile this much. I mean after all these jokes that I have told over the last 4 months alone. Not once did you laugh like this.

I thought that I was not good at telling jokes.

I thought perhaps I should not go and become a stand up comic. Then I seen you were responding to a Liberal

That is when I knew what you were laughing at and began to laugh my self.

When you stop laughing let me know, I know this joke about this little Yellow Liberal Bird, I know you will laugh...LOL

Getze Hayastan!

[Haykakan]

Re: Agriculture

Opening Economic Borders
Some background information is required to understand the difficulties on both sides of the border regarding its opening. The border between Armenia and Turkey has been closed since 1993. The border was closed by Turkey to show its support to Azerbaijan who was at war with Armenia. To date the desired effect of the closed border by the Turkish side has not been realized since Armenia won the war and forced a ceasefire while making progress on the economic front as well. There is also the issue of the Armenian genocide which further complicates the situation. Backed by the USA and other world powers recently Armenia and Turkey have been trying to reconcile their differences to open the border but Azerbaijan has warned Turkey that such a move would ruin relations between the two Turkish states and has threatened to stop oil flows into Turkey in retaliation should the border open. As of now the ratification of the treaty to open the borders is stalled in both Armenia and Turkey mainly because of Azerbaijan (Champion, 2010). The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible economic benefits in case of opening borders between Turkey and Armenia for the two countries involved and the region.
Literature
John Thornhill of the Financial Times describes how the Armenian genocide and the closed border are used against Turkey (Thornhill, 2005).
Marc Champion of the Wall Street Journal discusses the stalemate between Armenia and Turkey regarding the opening of the border (Champion, 2010, April 23).
Freinkman L, Polyakov E., and Revenco K., did a study for the World Bank which analyses the Armenian economy and discusses the effects of the closed borders (Freinkmann, Polyakov, & Revenco, 2004).
The Armenian-European Policy and Legal Advice Centre (AEPLAC) published a report which analyzed in detail the effects that open borders would have on the economies of Armenia, Turkey and the region. Hayk Barseghyan of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc, Tigran Jrbashyan of Armenian-European Policy and Legal Advice Centre, Grigor Sargsyan Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, Artashes Shaboyan of Armenian-European Policy and Legal Advice Centre and Vadym Slobodyanyuk of, Beacon Hill Institute use quantitative analysis, the gravity model and computable general equilibrium model to analyze and predict the economic effects of opening the Armenian Turkish border in the short and long term. (Barseghyan, Jrbashyan, Sargsyan, Shaboyan, & Slobodyanyuk, 2005).
The European Parliaments Committee on Foreign Affairs and Development requested a study on the effect the closed border was having on Armenia and the likely consequences of opening the border between Turkey and Armenia. This study was done by Nathalie Tocci a Senior Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Gültekin-Punsmann is Research Fellow at the Center for European Studies at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Licínia Simã is a PhD candidate at the University of Coimbra, Portugal, working on the European Neighborhood Policy for the South Caucasus, and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, Nicolas Tavitian is the Director of the Inside Europe resource centre. He holds a Masters in Public Affairs and International Relations from Princeton University, is the representative for the Turkish Armenian Business Development Council (TABDC) in Brussels (Punsmann, Simao, Tavitian, & Toocci, 2007). This study especially valuable since it has Armenian, Turkish, and European scholars working together.
Richard Beilock, Ph.D., Director, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State
University and Karine Torosyan, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University collaborated in a study published by the Journal of Economic Literature on the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey in which they argue that a gradual opening with a phased process would be the preferred way to open the border while addressing security and other concerns which may arise (Beilock, & Torosian, 2010).
Ikenberry writes in the publication of Foreign Affairs that social and cultural affinities are more important than democratic governments or economic relations (Ikenberry, 2010).
Discussion
The closed border between Armenia and Turkey is big problem for both countries but much more so for Armenia. Turkey closed the border to put pressure on Armenia so it would yield to Azerbaijan and concede the territory of Kharabagh which it had liberated but this has not happened. Instead the Armenian Republic which was formed after the demise of the Soviet Union has grown economically despite the blockade imposed upon it by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Along with economic growth Armenia also managed to keep all of the territories it gained during its war with Azerbaijan. It would be safe to say that the blockade has failed to accomplish the goals of those who imposed it. The fact that the main objectives of the blockade were not achieved does not mean however that Armenia does not suffer from it. Armenia’s economy is significantly crippled by the blockade, especially when it comes to exports (Freinkmann, et al, 2004). The blockade closes Turkeys markets to Armenian businesses and makes access to other markets like the European Union more expensive since all goods have to take a longer and more expensive route via Georgian Ports. The economic principle of The Firm’s Sales Revenue Depends on Demand for its Product comes into play here as the Armenian firms find the demand for their products drop along with their revenues because of the higher transportation costs incurred due to the blockade. Minimizing Cost for Each Level of Output is another economic principle which comes into play because of the blockade. Armenian firms have to cut costs more than other competing firms to make their goods affordable. This situation has lead to improvements in the technology of production and the demand for lower input prices by those firms. Decisions are Always among Alternatives is yet another economic principle that comes into play here. Since the Turkish border is closed and the Georgian border can be undependable (Georgian-Russian war, instability…), Armenian firms have begun using Iran as an alternative market and source. A road has been constructed between the two countries and trade has increased significantly every year. The new economic relationship with Iran leads us to yet another economic principle. Decision Alternatives Always Have Costs and Benefits applies very well to the situation Armenia finds herself in. The new improved economic relations with Iran have had significant economic benefits for Armenia which include a gas pipeline built between the two countries, import and export of goods has increased and many Iranian citizens have chosen Armenia as a vacation destination. The opportunity cost to this choice has been the loss of much of the economic aid Armenia was getting from the USA whose aim is to isolate Iran.
Armenia does suffer from the blockade but so does Turkey. Turkey’s eastern provinces are under developed and have much to gain by opening the border. Ports in eastern Turkey are more convenient for Armenian transit then Georgian points thus they would be getting much of the transit business should borders open. (Punsmann, et al, 2007). The closed border and the Armenian genocide issue are among the weapons used against Turkey when it comes to European Union membership talks (Thornhill, 2005). Recent events have also prompted the traditional allies of the Turks like Israel and the USA to use the blockade and genocide issues against it. There are more costs incurred to Turkey as a result of this blockade then just economic ones but they are beyond the scope of this paper.
The Armenian-European Policy and Legal Advice Center (AEPLAC) found that the short term gains for Armenia would not be great in case of the border opening but the benefits would grow significantly within five years due to increased bilateral trade and further cuts in transportation costs to other markets (Barseghyan, et al, 2005). The study ordered by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Committee on Development found that the benefits of opening the border between Armenia and Turkey are not limited to the two countries and will have a significant regional effect with Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan being some of the other benefactors (Punsmann, et al, 2007). The geography of the region dictates that the most efficient east-west routes should run through Armenia like the silk-road did for centuries. The region is mountainous and these mountains make transport in the north and south direction difficult but the east-west routes are relatively unobstructed by the mountains. Due to the blockade which closed down the east-west route Armenia has been forced to build roads through the mountains connecting itself to Georgia and Iran. Most of Armenia’s exports and imports go through Georgia but Iran is becoming a bigger factor every year.
Due to historic and current events there is deep mistrust and even hatred between Turks and Armenians. This atmosphere of mistrust has contributed to the breakdown of the treaty which was aimed at opening the border (Champion, 2010). Despite this setback there are behind the scenes negotiations taking place between the two sides which are facilitated by the EU, Russia and the USA who all have interests in opening this border. To gradually build trust between the two nations some have suggested a gradual opening of the border which will be done in phases to address the security concerns for both sides (Beilock, et al, 2010). By opening one or two checkpoints at first, the authorities can gage the amount of traffic that needs to be accommodated and they can address any security or other negative issues which may or may not arise. If Armenia and Turkey are satisfied with the results of the initial checkpoints then they can go further and open new ones if they are needed.
The opening of the borders will bring economic benefits to not just the two countries who share the border but to the entire region. Economics, however, is not the only issue to consider here. Research shows that social and cultural affinities are more important than democratic governments and economic relations when it comes to lasting peace between former enemies (Ikenberry, 2010). In this regard the outlook for successful relations is not as optimistic as the economic prospects. There is much bad blood between Turks and Armenians along with unsettled territorial claims and accusations of mass murder and genocide. The religious differences between the Christian Armenians and the Muslim Turks have always served as grounds for discrimination and fates much worst. After the invasions of the nomadic Turkic tribes, Armenians lived under Turkish rule for centuries but they maintained their own religion and culture despite the fact that doing so proved fatal on many occasions. The Turkish and Armenian people do share some cultural aspects due to their long period of cohabitation but they still remain very distinct from one another in regards to language, religion and national goals. The great powers of the world have not been helpful in assisting the two nations to bridge the big gap. Often the Russians or the Americans and recently the xxxs have used one side against the other for their own gains which invariably has widened the rift between the Turks and the Armenians. Some attempts are now being made by the Russian and American sides to bridge this gap today while Israel continues working in the opposite direction. The latest flotilla incident has changed the relations between Turkey and Israel and Israel readily used the Turkish-Armenian problems to retaliate by threatening to assist the Armenian lobby in gaining official recognition of the Armenian genocide carried out by the Turks in 1915.

[Haykakan]

Re: Agriculture

Conclusion
The economic implications of opening the Turkish-Armenian border mostly seem to be positive for both sides. Armenia has more to gain via the open border than any other country but Turkey also stands to reap substantial benefits. While there are security concerns on both sides, there are also methods to deal with these concerns. The opening of this border has regional implications with other countries in the region gaining better, more efficient trade routes then they have now. These new trade routes are the reasons why the great powers of the world (EU, USA, Iran and Russia) have been urging both sides to settle their differences and open the border.
The argument for opening the border seems pretty one sided when examined in economic terms but there is more to relations between people and countries then money. Cultural, religious and historic differences can trump economic common sense when it comes to international relations and lasting peace between neighbors. The current situation between Armenia and its neighbor Azerbaijan further complicates an already complex matter. Finely it is in the best interest of the Great Powers of the day to bring the Turks and Armenians together instead of pitting them against each other but it may be too little and too late.
This paper deals mostly with the economic aspects of the possible opening of the Turkish-Armenian Border. While the economic aspects seem pretty straight forward, the issues surrounding it are not. This paper provides great reasons for opening the border and these reasons do need to be taken into account by both sides but the issue is bigger than economics and further research in politics, history and culture seems imperative to gain a better understanding and perspective about this issue. As if that was not complicated enough, the political climate between other nations (USA-Iran, Turkey-Russia, USA-Russia) directly and indirectly can affect this situation. Economic principles work in the economic world but the world consists of more than economics.













References
Barseghyan H., Jrbashyan T., Sargsyan G., Shaboyan A., Slobodyanyuk V., AEPLAC “Study of
The Economic Impact on the Armenian Economy from Re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish borders. Implications for External Trade”, AEPLAC Report, 2005. C68, F17
Beilock R., Torosian K., Border Opening Impacts: Trade A Phased Strategy For Opening Armenia’s Western Border. Journal of Economic Literature F14, F17, F59 p21-46
Champion M. (2010, April 23). World News: Armenia Scraps a Border Deal With Turkey --- U.S.-Backed Pact Falls Apart After Neither Side Moves to Ratify Treaty Aimed at Resolving Disputes. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition), p. A.15. Retrieved June 21, 2010, from ABI/INFORM Global. (Document ID: 2018387731).
Freinkman L, Polyakov E., Revenco K., “Armenia’s Trade Performance in 1995-2002
And the Effect of Closed Borders: A Cross-Country Perspective”, the Wold Bank,
2004
Ikenberry, G. (2010). Recent Books on International Relations: Political and Legal: How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace. Foreign Affairs, 89(3), 134-135. Retrieved June 22, 2010, from ABI/INFORM Global. (Document ID: 2021711451).

Punsmann B., Simão L., Tavitian N., Tocci N., (2007) European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs Committee on Development. Policy Department. BD4 06M083


Thornhill J. (2005, October 1). Links with Armenia reinforce French fears: Turkey's alleged genocide is seen in France as a barrier to EU entry, reports John Thornhill: [LONDON 1ST EDITION]. Financial Times, p. 8. Retrieved June 21, 2010, from ABI/INFORM Global. (Document ID: 905182281).

[Vahram]

Re: Agriculture

Research shows that social and cultural affinities are more important than democratic governments and economic relations

Wow! Just Wow! I wonder how the Armenians lived this long, after all what did research show?