The Struggle for Caucasia

[Armenian]

Russian Armenian relations

POSSIBLE RE-DEPLOYMENT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES ISSUE OF ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: LEVON MKRTICHYAN

YEREVAN, May 27. /ARKA/. Possible re-deployment of Russian military bases from Georgia to Armenia is an issue of Armenian-Russian relations, Levon Mkrtichyan, Head of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun parliamentary faction, told reporters. According to him, this issue can be settled under Armenian-Russian military agreements, as well as within Armenia's commitments to the Council of Europe, including in setting up military quotas. "If these criteria are observed, it will be a problem of Russian-Armenian relations alone," Mkrtichyan said.

On the other hand, Mkrtichyan said that the withdrawal of Russian bases from Georgia involves the problem of Javakhk Armenians. According to him, the presence of Russian military bases in Georgia means a solution to serious problems of Javakhk Armenians, particularly social problems and problems of security of the Armenian community. He pointed out that the intensification of Turkey's policy toward the region and Georgian-Turkish military cooperation arouses the Georgia-based Armenian population's concern.

[...]

Source: http://www.arka.am/en/archive/n05/n2705/270504.html


SERGE SARGSYAN MET WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT ADMINISTRATION HEAD

31.05.2005 05:20

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Secretary of the National Security Council at the Armenian President, Defense Minister of Armenia Serge Sargsyan today met with head of the Administration of the Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, reported Press Secretary of the Defense Ministry of Armenia, colonel Seyran Shahsuvaryan. In the course of the meeting the parties specially emphasized that Russian President V. Putin's visit to Armenia stimulated more constructive solution of a number of problems.

Speaking of the development of the Armenian-Russian economic relations, Serge Sargsyan noted that some 160 Armenian-Russian interstate, intergovernmental and interdepartmental agreements and treaties have effect today. The interlocutors also discussed the need of forming customs points in the question of the ferry transpiration that is vital to Armenia. Having noted the high level of defense cooperation, S. Sargsyan and D. Medvedev accentuated the importance of activation of the Armenian-Russian cultural and humanitarian ties.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/...ciety&cat_id=1

[Armenian]

The fast developing geo-strategic situation of the Caucasus.

USA, TURKEY, AZERBAIJAN, UKRAINE - STRATEGIC ALLIES OF TBILISI

Georgian National Security Defines Relations With Armenia as 'Pragmatic Cooperation'

The newly authored Concept of National Security for Georgia considers United States, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Ukraine to be Georgia's strategic partners. Relations with two neighboring Armenia, are depicted "pragmatic cooperation".

According to Khvalindeli Dghe newspaper, the National Security Council prepared and submitted to the parliament the draft of the Concept on May 13. Georgian www.civil.ge informs that the draft Concept consists of 7 chapters. It will be confirmed after being discussed in the parliament.

"Georgia keeps on developing strategic partnership with the US... Turkey is Georgia's most progressive partner in the region", the Concept reads.

Georgia's relationship with Azerbaijan is most strongly linked with energy, transport and commercial projects. "The Rose Revolution in Georgia and Orange Revolution in Ukraine put the beginning of the new era in relations of two states", the Concept reads. "Georgia seeks after partnership with Russia that will be based on good-neighborly ties and principles of equality and mutual respect".

"Georgia relates to Armenia in pragmatic cooperation in all spheres of mutual interests", the Concept reads. According to Messenger English-language newspaper, Armenia's vector toward Russia and its closed borders with both Turkey and Azerbaijan are a cause of lessened political opportunities between Tbilisi and Yerevan. All the same Armenia is a major partner -- according to governmental statistics, in 2004 Armenians were the second most frequent travelers to Georgia behind only Turkey.

The draft highlights the need for both countries to "utilize united economic, energy and transport projects. Armenia can benefit from its transit location by transporting Armenian products through its territory". However, the fact that Abkhazia remains a separatist state prevents Georgia from satisfying Armenia's main transit interest of restoring the railway link to Russia.

Resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict would certainly improve the political situation in the South Caucasus, and the Concept of National Security says that all separatist conflicts are threats to the region's prosperity. "The existence of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict damages the regional countries' stability".

The Concept notes as well that Georgia will ensure protection of national and religious minorities' rights.

A chapter titled "Threats" highlights as such infringement of territorial integrity, import of conflicts from neighboring countries, particularly Chechnya, military intervention, smuggling and international terrorism. The Concept thinks that "illegal" existence of Russian military bases in Georgia "limits the state's sovereignty and undermines its economic and social stability".

Among the challenges the document mentions corruption and non-productive system of the state governing, socio-economic condition and dependence of energy supply on one source.

By Tatoul Hakobian

Source: http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2005052602

[KotayKoskesh]

talking about taking Baku is complete madness be happy with what we have now... the Karabagh war has caused us enough problems... yea we have Artsakh now and im happy but it also created many problems and political tensions that we could have avoided. Talking about taking taking Baku is like saying we should declare war on Turkey itself...

It wont happen and if it does, itll be the 3rd world war.

[karakitap]

Talking about taking taking Baku is like saying we should declare war on Turkey itself...

It wont happen and if it does, itll be the 3rd world war.

I don't thing so, only Armenia would erase from the earth.

[karakitap]

Ah sorry, "Armenian" have some tanks from Russia, they may help.
What is this insecurity complex trying to prove how strong you are?
It is a special behaviour of your people as I observed.

[TheTurk]

talking about taking Baku is complete madness be happy with what we have now... the Karabagh war has caused us enough problems... yea we have Artsakh now and im happy but it also created many problems and political tensions that we could have avoided. Talking about taking taking Baku is like saying we should declare war on Turkey itself...

It wont happen and if it does, itll be the 3rd world war.

No... it wont be WWIII. You have too high thoughts of yourselves. If you try to take Baku, Turkey will surely intervene. But no-one will lifte a single finger to come to your aide.

Russia ? They have trouble enough in Chechnia. A small nation of 5 million people have proven to be too difficult a task for the mighty russian army. Russia lost Eastern Europe because of their focus on tiny Chechnia.

The US ? Not likely - the Jewish Lobby which is a staunch ally to the turks will surely prevent that!

Europe ? Not likely - since Europe couldnt even stop the butchering in Yugoslavia. They simply dont have the guts....

So you see.... if you are stupid enough to attack Baku, and Turkey declares war on you, NOT ONE SINGLE COUNTRY will be able to do a thing.

You are all alone... In the middle of 250 million turkic speaking nations.

[karoaper]

No... it wont be WWIII. You have too high thoughts of yourselves. If you try to take Baku, Turkey will surely intervene. But no-one will lifte a single finger to come to your aide.

Russia ? They have trouble enough in Chechnia. A small nation of 5 million people have proven to be too difficult a task for the mighty russian army. Russia lost Eastern Europe because of their focus on tiny Chechnia.

The US ? Not likely - the Jewish Lobby which is a staunch ally to the turks will surely prevent that!

Europe ? Not likely - since Europe couldnt even stop the butchering in Yugoslavia. They simply dont have the guts....

So you see.... if you are stupid enough to attack Baku, and Turkey declares war on you, NOT ONE SINGLE COUNTRY will be able to do a thing.

You are all alone... In the middle of 250 million turkic speaking nations.

Well, the serbs were bombed by NATO, but you're right only after many months of ethnic cleansing. But if Turkey was to attack us, you think we would depend on Europe. Turkey attacking Armenia would be a suicide.

As far as I'm concerned I couldn't care less about Baku. We took Artsakh back and we're happy about that.

And it truely is a horrible horrible curse that has put us smack in the middle of turkonoids. My people have seen nothing, absolutely nothing, but massacres, oppresion, religious intolerance, cultural genocide at the hands of Turks. Armenians have given to the Turks famous composers, artists, masons, authors. Turkey has given to Armenia death, loss of lands and property and deep deep wound that we feel and will feel till the end of times.

Btw, unless you're from Baku, you should worry more about your own country. Because our historic lands is what we want, not Baku. And one day we shall have them.

[TheTurk]

Well, the serbs were bombed by NATO, but you're right only after many months of ethnic cleansing. But if Turkey was to attack us, you think we would depend on Europe. Turkey attacking Armenia would be a suicide.

As far as I'm concerned I couldn't care less about Baku. We took Artsakh back and we're happy about that.

And it truely is a horrible horrible curse that has put us smack in the middle of turkonoids. My people have seen nothing, absolutely nothing, but massacres, oppresion, religious intolerance, cultural genocide at the hands of Turks. Armenians have given to the Turks famous composers, artists, masons, authors. Turkey has given to Armenia death, loss of lands and property and deep deep wound that we feel and will feel till the end of times.

Btw, unless you're from Baku, you should worry more about your own country. Because our historic lands is what we want, not Baku. And one day we shall have them.

Tell me - did you learn to read in a black hole ? I mean - the subject was not if turkey unprovocedly attacked Armenia - it was if Turkey would support Azerbeijan in case ARMENIA ATTACKED BAKU !

So ... as I said, no one will lift a finger to come to your aid.

As for the wound turk have inflicted upon you, I'm sincerely sorry. I do believe that very bad things happened in 1915 (whether it was a genocide or "just" massacres, I leave to the historians). For this, I as a turk would like to apologize.

But for what happens today and forth, I'm not going to hide that Turkey and turks will make sure that there isnt a single astronomical chance that you can attack Baku and get away with it. You are (once again) underestimating the turks and their force. You did it in 1890 - 1915 when you stupidly fell for an idea from the russians and french to support them and get your own land, and now 100 years you are once again led to believe that you are able to do much more than you can, and that turks are much worse than they are.

As we speak, Turkey has 800.000 troops and GDP of 500 billion USD. Armenia on the other hand has less than 13 billion USD GDP and less than 30.000 men reaching military age annually (CIA Fact Book).

Forget it baby - no way you're gonna get Baku!

Wake up to realities. Its 2005 - not 1915. Get over it, and keep moving forward. Better start to think progressively!

The Turk

[karoaper]

As for the wound turk have inflicted upon you, I'm sincerely sorry. I do believe that very bad things happened in 1915 (whether it was a genocide or "just" massacres, I leave to the historians). For this, I as a turk would like to apologize.

Stop bullxxxxing me with that sorry crap. Your nation is either full of cold-blooded propaganda mouthpieces who justify murder and deportation of a million and half HUMAN BEINGS with sparse Armenian resistance, or insencere morally-bankrupt individuals like yourself who offer weak appologies, while at the same time support their government's absurd and oh-so-evil efforts to bury genocide deeper in the ground, effectively pissing on the memory of countless murdered, raped, starved, tortured souls. Not one memorial has been built, not one museum has been constructed, not one effort of public appology. These btw would be less than 1% of what a civilized nation commited to correcting its past wrongdoings would do. If that wasn't enough Turkey's Education Ministry is removing mention of Armenians as primary settlers of the entire Eastern part of Turkey (our historic home). Its hope is that 200 years from now, Turks will say "Armenians, I never knew Armenians even lived in Turkey". Your country is commiting a cultural Genocide of my people and you have the nerve to come to this forum with anything but a sincere vow to force your government to correct its past awful crimes and repay Armenians everything that can be repayed. If that is not your message, then everything that comes out of your mouth is pure garbage and poison. It becomes clear to us that your presence here is to pester and annoy us. So, please xxxx OFF!!!! I can only view examples of vile, brutal Turks so much.

As far as taking Baku is concerned, I already mentioned why I won't discuss who will do what if we go after it. I don't care about Baku. I care about Van, Mush, Ani, ....

But one thing must be mentioned. EU and especially NATO will not stand behind Turkey's involvement in any regional conflict. So Turkey's direct involvment in the war between 2 other nations would completely xxxx up its political aspirations and further isolate it in the world. You would have to kiss your EU bid goodbye. You would further have to do without so many millions sent to you by US. Israel might appreciate your actions, but even for Washington it would be too much.

You mentioned something about so many turkonoids living in Europe and that they could in future control the government. Well I don't know about the next 1000 years, but if you think that sons of poor immigrants can take over the governing of "racist" European nations any time soon, you obviosly learned to think in a black-hole.

[Armenian]

Iran to Deliver a Missile Blow to Azerbaijan

In case of Baku's consent to the accommodation of American military bases in the republic, Iran plans to deliver a preventive missile strike on the territory of Azerbaijan, Jelal Muhammedi, a confidant of the new Iranian leader, said in his interview to the Azerbaijan newspaper, Mirror. Muhammedi, being an ethnic Azerbaijanian, in the past held the post of editor-in-chief of the Iranian periodical, "Misag" (Tabriz), and is known for his close connections with authorities.

During the elections, he actively supported Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The new president of Iran worked in the local authorities of Iranian Azerbaijan in the 1990s. At that time he got acquainted with one of the most outstanding journalists of this region, Muhammedi. Jelal, at that time played and today continues to play a rather active role in the formation of Iranian policy concerning Azerbaijan. Especially, he has proved himself adept at secret relations between Tehran and the representatives of the intellectual elite of Baku, and, primarily, with journalists. It is highly probable that after Ahmadinejad's election, Muhammedi may become one of the key figures in formulating Tehran's policy towards Azerbaijan.

Muhammedi claims that a sharp deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan attitudes may occur in the near future for two reasons: accommodation of the US military bases in Azerbaijan and support by Baku of separatist moods in Iranian Azerbaijan. Muhammedi emphasized that in both cases Tehran is capable of taking not only adequate reciprocal measures, but also may be drawn to actions of a preventive character.

En Route to Baku

What might be the Iranian reaction to Ilham Aliev's consent to place a US military contingent in the republic was mentioned above. Speaking about the destructive consequences of a missile blow, Muhammedi suggested imagining "how Baku will look after two missiles strike the area". He has no doubt that the missiles will reach their target in case of the conflict, and such confidence is not baseless at all. Tehran's military is much stronger then Baku's on each and every parameter.

An extensive missile arsenal and several hundreds of warplanes allow Iran to deal a blazing air blow on the large cities of Azerbaijan. A common border, and the complete lack of any efficient system of antimissile and antiaircraft defense of the Azerbaijan army eases this task substantially. Moreover, judging by the equipment, staff, and level of preparation, the Air Forces of the Azeri republic are incapable of withstanding the Iranians. The common 611 km long border, allows Iran to subject the southern areas of Azerbaijan to massive artillery bombardments.

In case of escalation of the conflict up to ground forces collisions, Baku also has no chance to resist. By the numbers, the Iranian Army and Pasdaran (not even counting the National Guard - Basij Resistance Forces) considerably surpass the Azerbaijanian armed forces (more than 900 thousand Iranian soldiers against 72 thousand Azeri). Also, Iranians are equipped much better technically then Azerbaijanians. The supreme command structure of the Iranian Army and Pasdaran has a rich operative experience acquired in the war with Iraq. As for Azerbaijanian officers, they proved themselves inadequate during the conflict with Armenia at the beginning of the nineties.
The strategic arrangement of forces in the Southern Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea also is adverse for Baku.

Aliev has no close ally with appreciable military potential in the region. But Tehran holds close relations with Armenia. In case the conflict breaks out, Tehran can be expected to grip Azerbaijan in a "vise " from the Southeastern, Southwestern and Western directions. Yerevan does not have to conduct any military actions; it is enough to increase the concentration of its armies on the Azerbaijan border.

Counting upon the above listed strategic factors, experts on the Caucasus consider that given several days, the Iranians would manage not only to suppress the resistance of the Azerbaijan army completely, but also reach the capital of the republic. However, any such scenarios are purely theoretical. Baku, certainly, concedes to Tehran on every issue and parameter, but is protected by Ankara and Washington. Even if Iran would decide to strike Azerbaijan (which is improbable) the Americans would instantly interfere in the course of events. Though the leadership of the Azeri republic constantly increases its military expenditure (by the official data from about $74 million in 1997 up to $300 million in 2005) the true and only guarantor of Baku's security and safety is the United States. Accordingly, any "preventive measures" by Tehran may only provoke the Iranian-American conflict, which in turn is fraught with the most unpredictable consequences, not only for its participants, but also for the countries of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Source: http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=199