The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Siamanto]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Being a landlocked country, Armenia still has plenty to offer, the Armenians must build up their tourist business too.

You may not be aware, but Armenia is already building the sector.

[center]Half of Europe’s millionaires are Russian

June 25, 2008

Half of Europe’s millionaires are Russian, according to financial group Merrill Lynch. A report by the U.S. firm found the number of rich Russians is growing twice as fast as the global rate.
.......

READ MORE -- http://russiatoday.ru/business/news/26660

VIDEO - http://youtube.com/watch?v=XwJ1O0Tby-c

Two comments:
1- The number of millionaires may not mean much in itself, one should also consider the statistical characteristics - i.e. distribution, average etc. - and the aggregate - i.e. the total sum
2- Unfortunately, Russia has also the highest number of poors in Europe and, most likely, the highest poverty level

[Federate]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Venezuela hails 'strategic partnership' with Russia

Venezuela's Chavez may visit Russia in late July

I wish Chavez would create/expand bilateral ties with Armenia and maybe drop by our country as well since he's going to Russia. Venezuela has already recognized the genocide too during his tenure.

[zeytuntsi]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Zeytuntsi, why do our tourists go to Turkey? Is it because it's cheaper overthere? I know that many people go on vacation to Egypt too....
The Turks advertise their tourist industry big time. I live in US, I see VISIT TURKEY billboards everywhere, they even put them on buses....

Being a landlocked country, Armenia still has plenty to offer, the Armenians must build up their tourist business too.

Yes, people consider cost when they chose a destination, that is no secret.
Armenian is developing tourism.

Really? I didn't really detect that...
Well, I don't know what his/her goal is, but I didn't read other Zeytountsi's posts.

Zeytountsi, you didn't comment on the article, so what is your point? Did you want to say that Russia can use its "soft power" against Turkey as well?

There are at least two reasons why I have posted it here. The first is about Russia becoming wealthier, the second is that Russians are discovering other countries, in this case Turkey. Tourism is one of the many ways two countries discover each other, Russia is still in "formation" and its dynamics makes it a bit hard to see how it will evolve

As for Armenian, from what I've seen so far he sees an enemy in everyone who does not follow his sect. Either that or he likes to gossip and bash.
He seems to see in himself the pillar of Russo-Armenian relations, and the savior of the Armenian nation just like leader of the Russian doomsday sect "saved" the Russians.



Would a mentally healthy person say something like?

I am not suggesting that those who post anti-Russian information here are agents working for special interests. It would be silly for me to think in those terms because I would think such types of individuals work in prestigious and/or influential circles, not in internet discussion boards. What we have here with individuals like Zeytountsi and Siamanto are problematic idiots that simply want to make a point, regardless of how irrational, because they are either jealous or misinformed.

He needs to relax or talk to a shrink.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian president hosts Armenian counterpart

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday hailed relations with Armenia and pledged to further bilateral ties during talks with his visiting counterpart of the Caucasus state. Relations between Moscow and Yerevan are those "of partners andallies," Medvedev told Armenian President Serzh Sargsian who is in Moscow for a three-day visit, Itar-Tass news agency reported. Medvedev suggested to talk about "the broadest spectrum of questions" during the meeting and hopes that it "will be productive and will be commensurate with the level of partnership and allied relations between the Russian Federation and Armenia." Sargsian expressed confidence that bilateral ties will develop along the road of mutual understanding and strategic partnership in accordance with bilateral treaties, Itar-Tass said. Russia and Armenia called for an early solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and pledged to take coordinate steps to ensure security in the South Caucasus, said a joint statement issued after the leader's talks in the Kremlin. Armed conflict broke out in the early 1990s between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region's status after it declared independence, which was not recognized by the international community. Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in northwest Azerbaijan, was populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. A Russian-brokered ceasefire halted the fighting in 1994, but the dispute remains unresolved. The presidents also spoke highly of cooperation in such sectors as oil and gas, transport and communications, mining and processing industries, as well as in the innovation sphere, Interfax reported. The visit is expected to boost trade and economic relations, as bilateral trade has surpassed 800 million U.S. dollars last year, Russian officials said. Armenia, with a population of three million, recorded 13-percent economic growth in 2007 and foreign trade reached 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, according to official statistics.

Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_8431718.htm

Russia, Armenia to develop strategic partnership relations

Russia and Armenia will develop their relations on the basis of large-scale strategic cooperation. “The cooperation will have the spirit of mutual trust, respect of the sovereignty, a peaceful settlement of disputes, not using force or a threat of force, non-interference in internal affairs of each other, equality and mutual benefit,” says a joint statement by the Russian and Armenian presidents, Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsian. Moscow and Yerevan “attach priority significance to the deepening of mutually beneficial economic cooperation”. The statement also cites as priorities the cooperation in the fuel and energy sector, transport, communications, steel, mining and processing industries and in the innovation sphere. The sides “will help the preservation of cultural and spiritual closeness of the two countries’ peoples and deepen relations in the sphere of culture, science, education, information and health care”. “The Russian and Armenian presidents are convinced that the current stage of the two countries’ relations opens a broad prospect for ally interaction and the intensive deepening of relations in all fields in the interest of development of the national economy, culture, ensuring peace, stability and guaranteed security in the Caucasus region and in the whole world,” the document says. The joint statement has 14 points presenting views of the presidents on different aspects of bilateral and international relations.

Source: http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....6962&PageNum=0

Medvedev, Sargsyan to discuss Karabakh conflict

President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Dmitry Medvedev of Russia will discuss the Karabakh conflict settlement, a source in Kremlin told RIA Novosti. “Russia’s position is unchangeable. We will help the sides to find an acceptable solution to the conflict,” the source said. “The Presidents will also refer to the international agenda.” Serzh Sargsyan is in Moscow for a formal 2-day visit on invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. President Sargsyan is also scheduled to meet with Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov and State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov. He is also expected to lay a wreath to the Unknown Soldier’s Tomb and meet with representatives of the Armenian community.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26407

Russia and Armenia to coordinate foreign policies

Russian and Armenian presidents signed a joint declaration basing on the results of their meeting in the Kremlin, APA reports quoting Novosti-Armenia agency. The declaration signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsyan says that Russia and Armenia will coordinate their foreign policies for joint activity towards security in the South Caucasus, reinforcement of stability and development of cooperation. The countries said they support peaceful settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict approved by all sides and welcomed OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs’ efforts in this direction.

Source: http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=51080

President of Armenia: "Nagorno Karabakh problem can not have a solution, envisioning degradation of the present status of Nagorno Karabakh people"

"People of Nagorno Karabakh has won its right for independence and Nagorno Karabakh problem can not have a solution, envisioning degradation of present status of Nagorno Karabakh people", said President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan during the meeting with Armenian community of Russia, which took place in the framework of official visit of the President to Moscow on June 23. Serzh Sargsyan told the community representatives that during the meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev the sides agreed to continue talks in the framework of the document, which includes all basic principles of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. "Nagorno Karabakh has never been part of Azerbaijan. It was transferred to the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan by illegal decision of the party body, explaining that this step will help spread ideas of October revolution and communism in the Islamic East", noted Serzh Sargsyan.

Source: http://www.today.az/news/politics/45928.html

Armenia, Russia to develop military and political cooperation

Russia and Armenia will develop military and political cooperation not directed against third states, says a join statement signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsyan on outcomes of their Kremlin talks. “The countries will help the process of international control over armament and promote efficiency of multilateral agreements,” the statement said. Russia and Armenia agreed to “develop constructive cooperation on bilateral basis and in the framework of the UN, OSCE, CIS, CSTO and other international organizations in the name of regional and international peace.” Both sides confirmed adherence to the UN regulations and spoke out for strengthening the organization’s potential to resist new challenges. “Russia and Armenia also intend to promote CIS development and confirmed importance of the CSTO as guarantor of security of its member states,” the statement says, RIA Novosti reports.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26421

Serzh Sargsyan: Armenia-Russia relations should strengthen day by day

Currently in Moscow on a formal visit, Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan met with Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral economic relations, the RF government’s press office reported. “I am pleased to see continuity of Armenia’s policy after the presidential election. On behalf of the Russian government, I assure you that all programs we planned are being implemented. I am also pleased to see increase in commodity turnover between our states. Russian investments in Armenian economy totaled $1.2 billion. I am hopeful that your regular visit will convey a new impulse to our relations,” the Russian Premier said. For his part, President Sargsyan thanked Mr Putin for his contribution to the Armenian-Russian relations. “I welcome your constructive approach. Our relations should strengthen day by day,” he said.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26428

Armenia; President Serzh Sargsyan, who is ending later today a three-day official visit to Moscow, met with Boris Gryzlov, chairman of Russian State Duma (parliament)

Welcoming Armenia's president Boris Gryzlov said that parliaments of Armenia and Russia enjoy close relationships with high-level meetings being held on a regular basis. In his words, the latest national elections in Armenia and Russia will give a new impetus to further development of their partnership relations. Boris Gryzlov emphasized also both countries' cooperation within international organizations. He welcomed Armenia's active participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) underscoring that Armenia will assume soon its rotating chairmanship. The chairman of Russian State Duma singled out active economic ties between the two countries saying that close economic contacts have resulted in active cooperation in other sectors. He stressed the importance of active work of Russian-Armenian inter-parliamentary commission, which is going to have its next meetings in Moscow and Yerevan. He also expressed the readiness of Russian parliament to promote deepening of bilateral relations. President Serzh Sargsyan too underscored the work of the inter-parliamentary commission and existing ties between parliamentarians of both countries. He said Armenia and Russia have signed about 170 various-level bilateral documents, which are ratified by parliaments. He said active partnership is due also to well-designed legal framework. The Armenian president also emphasized the deepening of trade and economic relations noting that three are about 1000 companies in Armenia operating with Russian capital. He expressed confidence that the bilateral trade will soon cross the $1 billion line with increasing Russian investments in Armenian economy. Serzh Sargsyan and Boris Gryzlov discussed also other issues of bilateral interest. Armenian president made a note in the book of honorable guests of Russian State Duma.

Source: http://www.isria.info/RESTRICTED/D/2...une2008_30.htm

Russia and Armenia will work to resume operation of railway communications in Caucasus

Russia and Armenia will work to resume the operation of railway and other communications in the Caucasus, says the joint statement of the Armenian and Russian Presidents. Serzh Sargsyan and Dmitry Medvedev said they “will coordinate their activities with a purpose to strengthen security and stability in the South Caucasus.” The document also says that Yerevan and Moscow stand for soonest peaceful resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict on the basis of an agreement acceptable for all sides and welcome the endeavors of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26423

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Ukraine Would Send the Fleet to Syria

Konstantin Rzhepishevsky, head the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry office is Odessa Region, stated on June 26 that the Russian Black Sea Fleet may be transferred from Sevastopol to Syria after 2017, the UNIAN information service reports. Rzhepishevsky said that the Russian side has already spoken in favor of that idea and added that the Black Sea “will soon become a good zone of peace and economic cooperation.” Under international agreement, the Black Sea Fleet is supposed to leave Ukraine by 2017. Official Kiev has repeatedly stated that it will not extend the agreement on the Russian division’s location in Sevastopol. Russian politicians have also repeatedly said that the fleet will stay in Ukraine forever. The Russian Foreign Ministry declines to discuss the issue, saying that it is “not timely.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, commenting recently on a rent increase for the fleet at Sevastopol (it currently pays about $98 million per year), said that the withdrawal of the fleet in 2017 is nonnegotiable. Chief of the Russian Navy Vladimir Vysotsky stated recently that, after 2017, the fleet may be transferred to the Mediterranean Sea area. Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, was quoted by RBC Daily as saying that the port of Tartus in Syria may be the new home for the fleet. There is a Russian naval logistics facility in Tartus now.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-12741/Ru...ack_Sea_Fleet/

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Special Forces Face Layoffs

The results of an inspection of Vostok (East), the special battalion of the 42nd Division of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Department (Russian abbreviation GRU), have become known. The inspection was a reaction to complaints by Chechen authorities about the illegal behavior of the battalion members and their commander, Hero of Russia Sulim Yamadaev. A decision has been made to reduce the size of the battalion by 30 percent. The GRU’s Zapad (West) battalion will also be reduced by 30 percent. Officially, the military is attributing the downsizing to attrition, but there are indications that a cleansing of the personnel is going on simultaneously. Last year, the Defense Ministry ordered that no more local draftees be placed in the divisions. The decision was announced by Lieut. Gen. Vladimir Shamanov, chief of the main department of military preparedness and service of the Russian Armed Forces, who said that, in the eight years of its existence, the East and West battalions, made up of local residents, carried out dozens of successful operations and eliminated many rebels. Members of the battalions also serve as peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the general said, “a commission of the main infantry forces command found a number of violations in the process of military preparedness and organization of the daily activities of the personnel of the battalions.” Commander of the East battalion Sulim Yamadaev has reportedly been removed from command since the beginning of the inspection. He came into conflict with President of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov after his car refused to give way to the cars of the president’s bodyguards on a Chechen road on April 14, 2008. Yamadaev’s older brother, former State Duma member Ruslan Yamadaev, told Kommersant that he and his brother support the Defense Ministry’s decision to downsize the battalions and the decision to reassign Sulim Yamadaev was made long before the conflict with Kadyrov.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p905978/mi...ces_Chechnya_/

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Wow! This is amazing! I didn't know that.... So Russia's centuries-old dream to get excess to the "warm seas" finally come true. Hey, thank you Turkey.

NP, don't "thank" Turkey, they just want your money (Half of European millionaires are Russian? Now that's impressive!). See if you can talk to Putin and/or Medvedev about invading Turkey. Russia came close to doing so in 1945. I think it's high time. Russia desperately needs unhindered access to the Mediterranean Sea, right? You want to stop NATO dead in their tracks, no? I tell you what, we Armenians will fully participate in the invasion as well. 2.5 million Russian vacationers in Turkey in 2007 alone? Wow! Just imagine if they were armed. Maybe we can send in wave-after-wave of Spetznaz disguised as vacationers. We can start the invasion from the inside out. Afterwards, we'll go fifty-fifty. We will take the eastern half, you will take the western half. We'll leave an enclave around Ankara for Turks to live in.

What do you say?

God bless Armenia!!!

I wish more Russians (especially your politicians) shared this sentiment regarding our nation.

Being a landlocked country, Armenia still has plenty to offer, the Armenians must build up their tourist business too.

It's a good start...

Fructus Armeniacus: http://www.fructusarmeniacus.com/glavnaja.html?L=3

Armenia Information: http://www.armeniainfo.am/index.php

Armenia Tourism 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0dhjyxT3-I

Armenia Tourism 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNnSD...eature=related

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenian, thanks for the tourist videos. Here's another good one - http://youtube.com/watch?v=RNwlzzSUm3U

Speaking about tourism, some people are working on this issue already. Check this out:

Dean

Nina Kevorkova

(+374 10) 27-24-90

[email protected]

Secretary assistant

Armenuhi Avetisyan

(+374 10) 27-24-90

[email protected]

http://www.rau.am/faculties.php?f_id=5&l=0&l1=109

The Faculty of Social -Cultural Service and Tourism was established in 1999.

The Faculty trains specialists in tourism industry enlisting different types of organizations, among them hotels, motels, guesthouses, restaurants, cafés, shops for tourists, parks, clubs, and other spheres connected with tourism and culture.

The syllabus of the department has been designed in accordance with higher educational standards of the Russian Federation . Considerable attention is paid to teaching such disciplines as management in tourism and service spheres, professional ethics, communication skills and foreign languages. Students are supposed to conduct some preliminary scientific research and practice in leading travel companies and hotels in Armenia.

The Faculty cooperates with a number of educational institutions in Armenia and Russia, among them Yerevan State University, Tourism Academy, Moscow State University, and The University of Peoples' Friendship.

The graduates of the Faculty will be able to work in the spheres of services, management, research and education.

The main research trends at the Faculty include Innovative Trends in Hotel and Tourism Industry, The Psychological Culture of Tourism, Successful Strategies for Making a Professional Career, Transnational Companies in Armenian Market: Ups and Downs for the development of Tourism Industry in the Republic of Armenia, etc.

READ MORE - http://www.rau.am/faculties.php?l=0&f_id=5&l1=93

Here's a song about Armenia in Russian - http://youtube.com/watch?v=o4wp230yM_g

NP, don't "thank" Turkey, they just want your money (Half of European millionaires are Russian? Now that's impressive!). See if you can talk to Putin and/or Medvedev about invading Turkey. Russia came close to doing so in 1945. I think it's high time. Russia desperately needs unhindered access to the Mediterranean Sea, right? You want to stop NATO dead in their tracks, no? I tell you what, we Armenians will fully participate in the invasion as well. 2.5 million Russian vacationers in Turkey in 2007 alone? Wow! Just imagine if they were armed. Maybe we can send in wave-after-wave of Spetznaz disguised as vacationers.

How about sending Armenian Spetznaz of businessmen to Turkey?


I didn't know that Russia (as USSR back then) came close to invading Turkey in 1945. Where can I read about it?
The excess to the Mediterranean Sea is sure Russia's centuries-old dream, but today there are other ways to get to the "warm seas".

We can start the invasion from the inside out. Afterwards, we'll go fifty-fifty. We will take the eastern half, you will take the western half. We'll leave an enclave around Ankara for Turks to live in.

What do you say?

Well, this is what Hitler and Stalin planed for the Poles in 1939. But it didn't work as you know.
Besides, Russia and Armenia will be viewed by the Muslim world as America-Israel like union, so I don't think we need this sort of headache.

Let's better creat a military alliance with Turkey, Iran, China and Armenia as a members?

What do you say?

"Armenian" what you have done is pathetic. You just deleted 3-4 old posts so my replies will move out of the last page. Are you afraid that people will read them? Please relax or talk to your shrink. You're disturbed. Who would do that? Aren't you ashamed of yourself?
Enjoy your weekend covering up posts of people you don't tolerate.

Zeytuntsi, why are you so noisy?
These sort of things are usually discussed in private. Why not send a PM to the Mod and address your issues in polite manner?

Besides, I don't know what culture you come from (what nation I mean), but you are new here so demand something from a man who has been a forum member since 2004 is not wise at least.

[Anonymouse]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The thread is open again. I have significantly cleaned it up.

Feel free to post, but be warned, the value of this thread is informational, and any personal attacks that derail the coherence, fabric and essence of this thread earns you an automatic ban.

Here are examples:

If someone posts something you disagree with, the proper response is not, "You are so ignorant and dumb, you don't even know what you're talking about" or "You're an asswipe and an idiot if you believe that," or "Skinhead."

This applies to all posters. The slightest personal attack = automatic ban. We are trying to preserve the coherence and information in this thread, not engage in worthless personal attacks and character assassinations that take away from the value of the thread.

This is a fair warning.

Enjoy.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia's Lavrov warns against attack on Iran

Israel Rehearses Iran Attack: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6xApA38InA

Russia's foreign minister on Friday warned against the use of force on Iran, saying there is no proof it is trying to build nuclear weapons. Sergey Lavrov said Iran should be engaged in dialogue and encouraged to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear monitoring agency. Lavrov made the statement when asked to comment on an Israeli Cabinet member's statement earlier this month that Israel could attack Iran if it does not halt its nuclear program. "I hope the actual actions would be based on international law," Lavrov said. "And international law clearly protects Iran's and anyone else's territorial integrity." Israel's military refused to confirm or deny a report Friday that its warplanes staged a major rehearsal this month for a possible attack on Iran.

The New York Times report quoted U.S. officials as saying more than 100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s staged the maneuver over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. It said the aircraft flew more than 900 miles (1,450 kilometers), roughly the distance from Israel to Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, and that the exercise included refueling tankers and helicopters capable of rescuing downed pilots. Lavrov said Russia had asked both the United States and Israel to provide factual information to back their claims that Iran was working to build atomic weapons. "So far we have seen none, and the same conclusion was made by the International Atomic Energy Agency," he said. "It's absolutely not right to speak matter-of-factly that Iran continues building nuclear weapons," Lavrov added. Iran insists its enrichment program is meant only to generate electricity. But because of its past clandestine activities, including some that could have applications for weapons research, the international community is concerned that Tehran wants to enrich uranium to a purity suitable for use in atomic bombs. The IAEA suggested in a report to the U.N. Security Council last month that Iran was stonewalling investigators and possibly withholding information crucial to determining whether it conducted research on nuclear weapons. Lavrov insisted that Iran must be encouraged to continue its cooperation with the U.N. monitoring agency.

"As long as the IAEA reports to us progress in its relations with Iran, as long as Iran closes the issues which were of concern to the IAEA and this process continues, we should avoid any steps which could undermine this very important process," he said, speaking in English. Russia has maintained close ties with Iran and is building its first nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr, which is expected to go on line later this year. It has backed limited U.N. sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, but has opposed the U.S. push for harsher measures. "The key to resolving the Iranian issue is involvement," Lavrov said. "We must involve Iran, engage Iran in resolving the Iranian nuclear program, ... but also engage Iran in constructive, respectful, serious dialogue on Iraq and Afghanistan, on the Middle East in general."

Source: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j...Ei5OgD91DQ8U80

Bush May End Term With Iran Issue Unsettled

For more than five years now, President Bush and Vice President xxxx Cheney have made clear that they did not want to leave office with Iran any closer to possessing nuclear weapons than when they took office. “The nations of the world must not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons,” Mr. Bush said in February 2006. The United States is prepared to use its naval power “to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region,” Mr. Cheney said in 2007 from a Navy carrier in the Persian Gulf. But with seven months left in this administration, Iran appears ascendant, its political and economic influence growing, its historic foes in Iraq and Afghanistan weakened, and its nuclear program continuing to move forward. So the question now is: Are Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney resigned to leaving Iran more powerful than they found it when they came to office? The evidence is mixed. For all the talk to the contrary, Bush administration officials appear to have concluded that diplomatic efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions will not yield any breakthroughs this year.

Despite a recent flurry of efforts to tighten sanctions on Iran, top officials on both sides of the Atlantic, in recent interviews, had no expectations that Iran’s rulers would make any concessions, particularly on the critical issue of suspending the enrichment of uranium, while Mr. Bush remained in office. On the military front, the picture is fuzzier. Two senior administration officials said that barring a move by Israel, which one characterized as “the wild card” on the Iranian issue, this administration would not be likely to pursue military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets. Mr. Bush himself seemed to signal as much at the start of his European tour last week in Slovenia, when he said of Iran that he expected to “leave behind a multilateral framework to work on this issue,” a statement that seemed to suggest that military action against Iran may no longer be on the table. But there remains the possibility that Israel could force the hand of the Bush administration, foreign policy analysts and diplomats said. Israel carried out a three-day military exercise this month that American intelligence officials say appeared to have been a rehearsal for a potential strike on nuclear targets in Iran.

Israeli officials have tried to put pressure in recent months on the Bush administration to consider such a strike if Iran did not abandon its nuclear program, and the exercise may have been intended as a new signal that Israel might be willing to act alone if the United States did not. “Israel prefers this threat be dealt with peacefully, by dramatically increasing sanctions and maintaining a credible resolve to keep all options on the table,” said Sallai Meridor, the Israeli ambassador to the United States. “But time is running out." Iran, he said, “should understand that under no circumstances will the world allow it to obtain a nuclear capability.” Mohamad ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Al Arabiya television that he would quit his job in the event of a military strike on Iran. “It would turn the region into a fireball,” he said in an interview broadcast Friday, according to Reuters.

Israeli officials have expressed fear to the Bush administration that a new administration would take months, if not years, to decide on its approach to Iran. The consensus in the United States and Europe is that Iran is still at least two years away from a nuclear weapon. Israeli officials say they believe the threshold is closer to a year. An Israeli military strike on Iran would almost certainly require American help. For one thing, Pentagon officials say, it would take hundreds of sorties to take out a big swath of Iranian air defense. For another, the United States controls much of the airspace around Iran. Beyond that, Iran would hold the United States accountable for an Israeli strike, and could retaliate against American troops in Iraq. In Moscow on Friday, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov urged dialogue rather than confrontation with Iran and said that the United States and Israel had not offered any proof that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program. “So far we have not seen any,” Mr. Lavrov said, according to Interfax news agency.

A trip to Tehran last weekend by European diplomats with a new package of incentives was largely for Iranian public consumption, and to appease Russia and China by appearing to be still trying to woo Iran, European and American diplomats said. But European diplomats have been loath to acknowledge publicly that diplomacy on Iran’s nuclear development is in a holding pattern for the next eight months because they fear that Iran will only use that time to make progress on its nuclear program, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes. “One should not talk about keeping the status quo because that would be dangerous,” one European diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity under diplomatic rules. “We can’t say the clock has stopped and we will begin work again after Jan. 1; that is not a good recipe for success.”

Administration efforts to convey a sense of urgency about stopping Iran’s nuclear program were dealt a blow late last year with the release of a National Intelligence Estimate reporting that Iran had stopped work on a nuclear weapons program in 2003. In recent months, Bush administration officials have tried to walk back from that report, repeating often that Iran’s nuclear program remains a threat. Many foreign policy experts are now looking to the next administration for a possible new approach to the standoff with Iran. “The Europeans all understand that the carrots-and-sticks approach is not working, and the entire Iran diplomatic policy has to be rethought,” said Vali R. Nasr, an Iran expert at Tufts University. Until a new administration takes over, he said, “we’re stuck in a process where the ball is kicked to the bureaucrats.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/21/wa...a66&ei=5087%0A