Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations
Not necessarily, Federate. Like I suggested previously, Azerbaijan is essentially a hostage to Moscow and Baku knows it. For the most part, Baku has no other choice but to dance to Moscow's tune, especially now that a major geopolitical shift has taken place. None of this, in my opinion, will have a negative impact on the status of Nagorno Karabagh. Moscow has clearly stated on many occasions, even in its comments yesterday, that it will 'not' tolerate the resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabagh and that it expects Armenians and Azeris to settle the matter in question at the peace table. And the timetable for this is indefinite. It's clear that Moscow is adamantly protecting the status quo in the disputed region. Again I need to reiterate that this status quo benefits Armenians and not the Azeris. So, with Baku willingly dancing to Moscow's tune now, what sense would it make for Russia to undermine Armenia? Nagorno Karabagh is the sledgehammer Moscow has hanging over Baku's head and it will remain so for the foreseeable future.
There is another crucial factor behind Ankara's recent good will gesture towards Armenia that I forgot to mention. Aside from its lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with Russia, Ankara also heavily relies on Central Asian derived energy resources. So, with the transit routes through Georgia now interrupted, Ankara is essentially forced to put on a happy face and approach Yerevan and Tehran. In my opinion, Moscow could have been behind Ankara's decision to approach Yerevan.
These are interesting times.
Right now, Moscow is in damage control mode, Ankara is in a confused mode, Yerevan is in a survival mode (as usual), Azerbaijan is in a panic mode, Tehran is in a hopeful mode, and Washington is in a desperate mode. Saakashvili has really created a massive geopolitical mess in the region. God only knows where all this is heading.
Try not to look at these types of issues in simple black and white terms. If Armenia gives up the territories in question without Baku 'fully' accepting the independence of Nagorno Karabagh, than yes it can be a potential problem. If Baku truly come to terms with loosing Nagorno Karabagh and truly works towards ending its dispute with Armenia then the territories in question can be handed over. Thus the issue here is not action, its "intention." Yerevan and Stepanakert have to be convinced of Baku's good intentions and they would need international guarantees they can fully trust. Thus far, Baku has not signaled that it is ready to accept its lose and Yerevan has not yet received any guarantees that it can trust. It's all relative. However, regardless of Baku's intentions and international guarantees, the territories west of Nagorno Karabagh (Karvajar and Bertdzor region) can 'not' be negotiated under any circumstances.
Today we saw Armenia playing a prominent role on the international stage. I have been very impressed with Serge Sargsyan's performance in these trying times:
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The leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) have signed a joint declaration on recent developments in the Caucasus at a meeting in Moscow on Friday. The group also expressed its support of Russia's reaction to Georgian aggression against South Ossetia. The issue has also been at the forefront of EU foreign ministers’ talks in France. Countries in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation will make their own minds up on the issue of recognising South Ossetia. This was the conclusion of Russia's President Medvedev, following a summit of the organisation. ”All our partners in the CSTO will be guided by their own opinion on the issue of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is how it should be according to the norms of international law. They'll be guided by their own national interests. Russia believes this is absolutely right,” Dmitry Medvedev said.
But the Armenian President stressed that the members of the organisation should show a united front in different issues, including foreign policy. ”Along with strengthening the military aspects of CSTO, we must also coordinate our foreign policy, because we are members of one organisation,” said Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) which includes Russia and six of its neighbouring countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - backed Russia's actions in South Ossetia and condemned Georgia's aggression in a joint statement issued on Thursday. “The statement highlights the key points and has all the necessary verifications, including condemnation of Georgia's military actions against South Ossetia. It condemns the policy of double standards and admits the situation in the conflict zone is dangerous,” said Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. Russia is clearly satisfied with the support, but there is still a lot of work to be done and diplomatic talks continue on Friday at the highest level. To watch the full press-conference of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow, please follow link.
Meanwhile, a two-day informal meeting of EU foreign ministers which starts in Avignon, France, on Friday will focus on the situation in the Caucasus. The summit in Avignon will examine the questions of rendering humanitarian aid to Georgia and assistance in restoring its economy. The EU FMs will also consider the effect of events in South Ossetia on relations between Russia and the EU. The special EU summit on September 1 took a moderate stance concerning Russia. Although denouncing the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the EU leaders refrained from taking any sanctions against Russia. At the same time, there is a group of countries inside the EU, which continue pushing through a tough anti-Russian line. The core of the bloc includes the Baltic states, Poland and the UK. The second day of the informal EU foreign ministers’ summit is expected to be devoted to the European Union’s relations with the U.S. and their future prospects. The French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner will also deliver a report on his trip to the Middle East.
Source: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29953
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And here Baku makes the case against Armenia:
Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15 years. The media actively comments on the news on the forthcoming visit of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the railway Kars (Turkey) - Gumri (Armenia). Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.
Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the import, but now already only on one source - Iran. The recent rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is no other economically attractive route. This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan – Turkey – proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the essence political step.
Opening roads - indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago. According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged 34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of 7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the country,.
Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus, possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw material goes to the Port of Ceyhan. And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of opening borders with Armenia.
Source: http://capital.trendaz.com/index.sht...287259&lang=EN
Originally posted by Federate
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There is another crucial factor behind Ankara's recent good will gesture towards Armenia that I forgot to mention. Aside from its lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with Russia, Ankara also heavily relies on Central Asian derived energy resources. So, with the transit routes through Georgia now interrupted, Ankara is essentially forced to put on a happy face and approach Yerevan and Tehran. In my opinion, Moscow could have been behind Ankara's decision to approach Yerevan.
These are interesting times.
Right now, Moscow is in damage control mode, Ankara is in a confused mode, Yerevan is in a survival mode (as usual), Azerbaijan is in a panic mode, Tehran is in a hopeful mode, and Washington is in a desperate mode. Saakashvili has really created a massive geopolitical mess in the region. God only knows where all this is heading.
Giving up territories outside the former NKAO would prove the end of NKR. Let's hope nothing ridiculous like that ever happens.
Today we saw Armenia playing a prominent role on the international stage. I have been very impressed with Serge Sargsyan's performance in these trying times:
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Joint declaration on South Ossetia signed in Moscow
The leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) have signed a joint declaration on recent developments in the Caucasus at a meeting in Moscow on Friday. The group also expressed its support of Russia's reaction to Georgian aggression against South Ossetia. The issue has also been at the forefront of EU foreign ministers’ talks in France. Countries in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation will make their own minds up on the issue of recognising South Ossetia. This was the conclusion of Russia's President Medvedev, following a summit of the organisation. ”All our partners in the CSTO will be guided by their own opinion on the issue of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is how it should be according to the norms of international law. They'll be guided by their own national interests. Russia believes this is absolutely right,” Dmitry Medvedev said.
But the Armenian President stressed that the members of the organisation should show a united front in different issues, including foreign policy. ”Along with strengthening the military aspects of CSTO, we must also coordinate our foreign policy, because we are members of one organisation,” said Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) which includes Russia and six of its neighbouring countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - backed Russia's actions in South Ossetia and condemned Georgia's aggression in a joint statement issued on Thursday. “The statement highlights the key points and has all the necessary verifications, including condemnation of Georgia's military actions against South Ossetia. It condemns the policy of double standards and admits the situation in the conflict zone is dangerous,” said Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. Russia is clearly satisfied with the support, but there is still a lot of work to be done and diplomatic talks continue on Friday at the highest level. To watch the full press-conference of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow, please follow link.
Meanwhile, a two-day informal meeting of EU foreign ministers which starts in Avignon, France, on Friday will focus on the situation in the Caucasus. The summit in Avignon will examine the questions of rendering humanitarian aid to Georgia and assistance in restoring its economy. The EU FMs will also consider the effect of events in South Ossetia on relations between Russia and the EU. The special EU summit on September 1 took a moderate stance concerning Russia. Although denouncing the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the EU leaders refrained from taking any sanctions against Russia. At the same time, there is a group of countries inside the EU, which continue pushing through a tough anti-Russian line. The core of the bloc includes the Baltic states, Poland and the UK. The second day of the informal EU foreign ministers’ summit is expected to be devoted to the European Union’s relations with the U.S. and their future prospects. The French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner will also deliver a report on his trip to the Middle East.
Source: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29953
************************
And here Baku makes the case against Armenia:
Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?
Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15 years. The media actively comments on the news on the forthcoming visit of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the railway Kars (Turkey) - Gumri (Armenia). Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.
Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the import, but now already only on one source - Iran. The recent rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is no other economically attractive route. This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan – Turkey – proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the essence political step.
Opening roads - indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago. According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged 34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of 7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the country,.
Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus, possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw material goes to the Port of Ceyhan. And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of opening borders with Armenia.
Source: http://capital.trendaz.com/index.sht...287259&lang=EN
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