The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Moscow currently satisfies about 1/3 of Europe's oil needs and approximately 1/2 of its natural gas needs. The figures for certain NATO members are much higher. For instance, Russia today is poised to provide 70% of Turkey's energy needs.This already bad situation is gradually getting worst for Washington, NATO and the EU because of recent political developments in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus. During the pivotal years following Vladimir Putin's ascension to power in the Kremlin, Moscow managed to monopolize Eurasia's energy production and distribution networks. Moscow has also begun energy exploration in the vast energy rich Arctic region and it has regained its political leverage over key Central Asian states and the south Caucasus. Moreover, Moscow has also managed to strike long-term energy deals with NATO members Italy, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Germany and Norway, as well as Austria and the Ukraine.


Needless to say, Western political observers are in a panic mode today, but the economic crisis the West is wrestling with as well as their serious entanglements in several military commitments in the Middle East and Central Asia are tempering their response. Nevertheless, by controlling Europe's energy imports, Moscow can theoretically be in an enviable position to indirectly control the Western world's politics. By controlling Central Asian energy production and distribution, Moscow can also maintain China's long-term dependence. This situation was foreseen by Western political analysts some years ago, and this is one of the fundamental reasons why Washington, London and Brussels have been desperately trying to gain a foothold in the energy rich regions of Central Asia and the Middle East. Despite their best efforts, however, Moscow has been able to check them in various fronts. As a result, Vladimir Putin today is the reigning king of Eurasia, long considered to be the world's most coveted geopolitical prize. The following news articles from various sources highlights the Russia's unstoppable energy onslaught.


As I like to say - they loved Gorbachev because he allowed them to kill the Bear, they adored Yeltsin because he allowed them to feed off the decaying carcass of the Bear, now they fear and hate Putin because he resurrected the Bear...



Arevagal

Putin's Fight For Control of Russia's Oil

Russia to create Arctic armed forces: http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaTo.../0/rXrG5vNrvGM



Russia, Turkey bridge pipeline in gas issue: http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaTo.../0/9qtETgzjdxw



Nabucco pipeline forgotten: http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaTo...13/7LT3RVD5pVA




In October 2003, troops carrying machine guns boarded Russian oligarch Mikhael Khodorkovsky's plane on the runway of a Siberian airfield.




Kordokovsky, the richest man in Russia, was the owner of Yukos, at the time the country's biggest oil firm. Within hours he was hauled back to Moscow wearing handcuffs and a black canvas hood over his head. Vladimir Putin had flexed his political might and changed the political course of Russia. BBC journalist and Russia expert Martin Sixsmith's book, Putin's Oil, is a vivid account of what led to Khodorkovsky's arrest, its dramatic aftermath and far-reaching consequences.




ePolitix.com: I was expecting your book to be somewhat dry and academic – in fact it reminded me of a Tom Clancy novel.




Martin Sixsmith: I was interested in the human clash between these two men, Putin and Khordokovsky, rather than the nitty-gritty of the financial background. It is also a clash between two ways of seeing Russia and its future. From 1990 they had ten years of trying to be like us – it didn't work. That is when the oligarchs got very rich. In 2000 the country was nearly bankrupt and there was ethnic violence and disorder on the streets and a few people getting very rich. In 2000 they changed their minds and have gone in the opposite direction, which is a centrally-governed state with a very strict, harsh authority in Moscow.




In 1991 when Communism ended you were in Russia as a reporter. Were people hopeful they could change Russia and was their lack of experience of capitalism the reason they ended up in such dire straits?




The brief answer is yes and yes. After 74 years of Communism people were fed up with it. It was an awful place. The guys who were in charge were pretty young, Western-leaning, liberal and spoke English with American accents. They said they could make things better and the people went along with it, they did not really know what capitalism was, but it was different. McDonalds had opened in Moscow, they liked it, they liked the hamburgers but could not afford them. Yeltsin and his guys, who I knew and kind of liked, they were very well-intentioned. The West has a lot to answer for because we sent over these hard-nosed economists, who said to Yeltsin, 'you have a very small window and if you do not change to capitalism overnight the Communists are going to come back and you will be strung up'.

Yeltsin was not a man for the detail so he thought 'OK'. They introduced this barmy system where they liberalised prices, which then shot up. Everybody got made redundant, massive factories were closed down and the whole thing just imploded. The West pushed them down this road and then did not give them the help to get out of it. By 1996 Yeltsin has to go to the oligarchs and ask them to bail him out, otherwise he said he would lose the election and the Communists would be back. The oligarchs gave him the money but with conditions attached.




Where do people like Khordokovsky and the other oligarchs come from in a Communist system?




These are extremely bright guys, seven or eight guys who at one point claimed they owned one quarter of Russia's economy, and they did. Most of them were wheeler-dealers, slightly on the edge of the legitimate economy under Communism. Most of them xxxish, actually. Khordokovsky was atypical because he was a young Communist. He later claimed he joined on purpose because he would need the contacts to make a big success of himself. So by 1996 they owned all the newspapers and TV stations, so when Yeltsin was in trouble they asked for access to the crown xxxels of the economy – the energy sector, the metals sector, distribution, transport. Up until then the Communists had blocked all that. Yeltsin was in such a pickle in 1996 he just signed on the dotted line and he was incredibly re-elected. It was not a rigged election but it was amazing how he turned it round. He had the press and lots of money, of course.




Later, when Putin comes in, he puts pressure on the oligarchs. What did he want, was he just an old-style Communist wanting to renationalise everything?




No, he was not, but he recognised the country was falling apart and something had to be done pretty quickly. He had learned the lesson of history – for the last thousand years Russia has been an autocracy based in Moscow. They have had brief experiments with reform and they have all gone wrong. It was always a terrible disaster when they tried to become like us. Putin sought to restore order to the economy and turn it around, and part of that was to try and look at the deals done by Yeltsin with these very powerful oligarchs. He sat down with them and said 'you and I know this was a bit dodgy, but I do not want to tear it all apart, my aim is to improve the well-being of the country'. Putin attempted a deal where they would keep out of politics, and they had been very influential over Yeltsin and expected to do the same with Putin, which did not happen. Most said OK. Berezovsky was furious, he thought of Putin as his creation, so he got out. Berezovsky continued to finance political parties. There was a moment on national TV where he waved his finger at Putin, which is just not done in Russia.




Of course after lots of clashes with Putin, Berezovsky ended up fleeing to London, claiming political asylum here in 2001. Why do these Russian billionaires come to London?




It is interesting because after the Russian Revolution everyone fled to Paris. Now it is London - it is partly because the British government has a fairly relaxed asylum policy, and they feel safe here. They feel that the education system is good and London is accessible to get back to Russia. But a lot of them have gone to the US or Israel.




There is a brilliant moment in the book where you describe the arrest of Khordokovsky at an airport.




Well that was a very Russian thing for Putin to do, not only arrest him but show we are arresting him, show who is the boss, we are the state.




Will he ever be released from prison?




The received opinion is that he is going to go down for another 20 years, I think there is a possibility he could be released, because Medvedev (the current President of Russia), who is a lawyer himself, keeps saying we need a legal system that can be respected. But it would be a political decision as well. It is not absolutely clear he is innocent! It is not a terrible thing he might go to jail. Of course he was selected for this treatment and others were not, so it is selective justice.




Putin puts forward an image of the semi-naked strongman, not something our politicians would do. Does that appeal to the Russian mind set?




Russian history will judge him extremely well, in contrast with Yeltsin and Gorbachev, who are hated. Putin is popular because if your country is falling apart, there is nothing to eat, the lights go out at 10pm, you are not going to be happy about it. He has restored order and he is a strong man, the image of him on horseback is right. He has got the economy back on its feet, you do not get shot in the street like you did under Yeltsin. His opponents may see his actions as those of a tyrant, but the Russians think he did the right thing. Russia now has its oil and gas resources back under its control. That has allowed Putin the political clout he needed on the international stage and he has restored order. Russians like Putin because he is strong, he is not drunk every night like his predecessor, and I saw Yeltsin, he was like that, he stank of vodka. They want someone who does not drink, is physically strong.




Do the Russians have an inferiority complex and think we do not respect them enough?




I would say it is more a fear of vulnerability, if you look at the last thousand years they have been invaded from every side you can imagine. In the 13th century they were invaded by the Mongols who stayed around for 250 years and set back their development for a quarter of a millennium. That deep-seated fear of foreigners is still there. The funny thing about Russia is we think of them as tough guys, strutting on the international stage, with menacing rockets. They do not see it like that, they see it as having to remain vigilant.




Putin's Oil, The Yukos Affair and the Struggle for Russia by Martin Sixsmith is available from bookshops or can be bought online here.




Source:http://www.epolitix.com/latestnews/a...of-russias-oil

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

RUSSIAN, FRENCH FMS DISCUSS IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAMME, NAGORNO-KARABAKH

ITAR-TASS
June 7 2010
Russia

MOSCOW, June 7 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov and his French counterpart Bernard Kouchner had a telephone
conversation on Monday to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme and
the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

Lavrov and Kouchner "exchange views on the situation surrounding
the Iranian nuclear problem, including in the context of work on the
draft relevant resolution in the U.N. Security Council, as well as
the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement," the Foreign Ministry said.

On Sunday, Kouchner said the issue of new sanctions against Iran would
be most probably considered after June 14, following an official
reply to the joint suggestion of Iran, Brazil and Turkey regarding
Iranian nuclear programme.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev welcomed the agreement on uranium
signed by Iran, Turkey and Brazil, but said he was not sure that it
would resolve all questions about Tehran's nuclear programme.

Commenting on the agreement on the exchange of low-enriched uranium
signed by Iran, Turkey and Brazil, Medvedev called it "interesting
information".

"The work that was done by Brazil and Turkey led to the signing of the
relevant declaration. We are studying this declaration most thoroughly
now. I hope to talk with my colleague and friend Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva, the president of Brazil, tonight. I hope to receive first-hand
information," Medvedev said.

"At any rate, we welcome this agreement. This is a political and
diplomatic method of solving the Iranian problem," Medvedev said.

"First of all, it is good that we have some result. The most complex
problem related to the Iranian nuclear programme has been discussed,"
the Russian president said.

"Second, there is the wish to exchange low-enriched uranium for
highly-enriched uranium in the proportions set forth in the agreement,"
he said.

At the same time, Medvedev noted, "The question is whether this
is a sufficient level of exchange and whether all members of the
international community will be satisfied... I don't know. Apparently
more consultations will be needed with those who are involved in
this process."

"A separate question that arises is whether Iran will enrich uranium
itself or not. As far as I understand, judging from the statements
made by Iranian officials, such work will continue in Iran. In this
case, the international community's doubts main remain."

He suggested "calling urgent consultations with all interested
parties, including Iran" in order to decide what should be done next
and whether "the proposed decisions would be enough or something new
should be taken".

"This is why I think that a short pause will not harm. I am confident
that we will soon continue consultations with our partners Brazil
and Turkey and other colleagues that deal with the Iranian nuclear
programme," Medvedev said.

Iran's nuclear programme has been a major irritant in global affairs
lately and spurred heated debates in the international community and
the United Nations, forcing Western countries to raise the issue of
sanctions against Tehran.

Western countries insist that Iran develops its nuclear programme
for military purposes, while Tehran claims it pursues purely civilian
purposes.

Medvedev made it clear earlier that if the Iranian issue could not
be resolved, Russia would be prepared to consider sanctions.

But sanctions against Iran should be "well considered and
intelligent", he said. "Sanctions should not be aimed against the
civilian population and they should be the extreme form, beyond which
dialogue is impossible. This is why the relevant initiatives are being
discussed now. We are ready to continue discussing this issue with our
partners even though it would be desirable to avoid these sanctions,"
Medvedev said.

"Iran is a difficult issue. Practically all of my negotiations with
European colleagues and American colleagues touch on Iran one way
or another. Unfortunately, we have not made progress lately. On the
contrary, the situation is degrading," he said.

"Unfortunately, the admonitions we have offered to the Iranian
leadership, our calls for working on a peaceful nuclear programme
under international control have so far not produced ay result,"
the president said. "But we are optimists and we still think that we
can succeed," he added.

"Nevertheless, if we don't, and I have spoken of that many times,
Russia is ready to consider sanctions together with our partners,"
the president said.

But sanctions against Iran have become more relevant following Tehran's
decision to enrich uranium, but they won' t solve the problem, Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said earlier.

Moscow believes that "sanctions, if and when the U.N. Security
Council adopts the relevant decision, should aim to strengthen the
non-proliferation regime", he said.

"Any other attempts to push a possible future resolution towards
provisions that will take it beyond the strengthening of the
non-proliferation regime would naturally be inappropriate to us,"
the diplomat said.

The Russian approach is that "sanctions do not solve the problem",
he added.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Here is a interesting take on whats happening.

Russia-US-Iran: Nuclear juggling
By Eric Walberg
Online Journal Contributing Writer


Jun 4, 2010, 00:18

Brazil accused the US of double standards, and Turkey insisted
Thursday that rejecting the deal with Iran, which calls for Tehran to
ship around half its stock of low-enriched uranium to Turkey in
exchange for enriched uranium suitable for research and medical use,
would be `unreasonable' and said that a US push for fresh sanctions on
Tehran was creating an `absurd situation.'

`Those who speak to this issue should eliminate nuclear weapons from
their own country and they should bear the good news to all mankind by
doing that,' Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan said, while
attending a UN conference in Rio de Janeiro.

Now it's Iran's turn to accuse Russia, ever so politely, of double
standards. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani said on
Saturday, `Russia has always tried to ensure that events particularly
nuclear issues will be fashioned based on its own interests.' He
added, `Regarding Russia, we should take into account two issues that
first it is our neighbour and second, definitely it shares some
interests with Iran.'

The Iranian government is `surprised' Russia signed on to a US
proposal for a tighter embargo to punish the Islamic republic for its
nuclear programme, Special Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told
reporters in Moscow last week. Indeed, Iran's sensational last minute
agreement to a proposal by Turkey and Brazil -- virtually identical to
one proposed seven months ago by the US and International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) -- was intended to forestall just such an
eventuality.

And yet at the same time Obama's senior director for Russian affairs,
Michael McFaul, smugly told reporters in Moscow on May 28 that
Moscow's support for Iran sanctions was still on track. `We believe
that's a concrete achievement of resetting relations with Russia ,'
attributing the `success' to Obama's move to start afresh with Russia
after rocky relations during the Bush presidency.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki phoned his Russian
counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, who told him Russia was always ready to
`advance Iran's nuclear talks and help resolve the standoff with the
West' in search of a `viable diplomatic and political solution' and
assured him that `Russia will actively support the scheme proposed by
Brazil and Turkey.'

So who are we to believe? Is it a `da' or a `nyet'? It's far more
complicated than that. Both sides have their gripes. The Russians
wonder why Iran didn't agree to the IAEA proposal last year, avoiding
all the subsequent brinkmanship.

As for Iran, it is angry over the delay in commissioning Iran's
nuclear power stations and fulfilling its contract on the S-300
anti-aircraft system, essential to Iran's defence against an
Israeli-US attack.

The reason for this is clear: very strong US pressure on Russia. But
lo and behold, once Russia agreed to the new sanctions last week, the
US said they would not forbid the sale of the S-300. The other carrot
for Russia is the State Department's announcement, in conjunction with
McFaul's visit to Moscow, that it has lifted sanctions against
Russia's state arms trader and three other Russian companies it had
accused of helping Iran try to develop nuclear weapons.

This is the meaning of Larijani's crack about self-interest on
Russia's part. But the fact remains that Russian companies were being
penalised for providing nuclear technology precisely to Iran and for
contemplating providing Iran with a high tech anti-aircraft defence
system. Surely these are very much Iran's interest as well.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad was clearly fed up when he
warned Moscow to refrain from `creating a situation that could make
the Iranian people place Russia within the ranks of their historic
enemies.' However, before he burns any bridges, he should consider
that, even if the sanctions go into effect, Washington's nod-and-wink
for Russia's S-300 sale and the lifting of sanctions against Russian
companies working with Iran is actually a bit of good news, as it
indicates that Washington is not really interested in bombing Iran
after all.

`It's irrational for Russia not to fulfill its obligations,' Sajjadi
said impatiently in Moscow. Russia is losing `economic and political
dividends' as well as the trust of other arms clients. Russian Energy
Minister Sergei Shmatko assured him that the Bushehr nuclear plant
will start up this summer. Nuclear cooperation with Russia has a
`bright future' and Russian companies will have priority if more
reactors are contracted at Bushehr, Sajjadi promised. `I don't have
this kind of optimism concerning military cooperation,' he said
tersely, as the issue of the delayed S-300 systems `negatively
affected' Iranian public opinion. Iran will be `more cautious' when
making arms deals with Russia, according to the ambassador.

But if the Brazil-Turkey-Iran deal is legit, Russia will back it and
proceed with the S-300 sale, even if the sanctions go ahead. That is
Russia's carrot to Iran, as delivered by Lavrov. Yes, Russia is trying
to best serve its own interests in all this, but the bottom line with
regards to Iran is that a US-Israeli attack will not be accepted by
Moscow. And -- thanks to Russia? -- is no longer in the cards for
Washington. In any case, the sanctions -- which are dismissed by
former secretary of state Colin Powell as useless in any case -- will
fall apart if the B-T-I plan is implemented.

This is no doubt what Lavrov told Mottaki, who on Monday was even able
to poke fun at the US: `We have to allow them some time to recover
from the initial shock,' and expressed hope that the Vienna Group --
US, France, Russia and the IAEA -- would come to a `rational' decision
on Iran's civilian nuclear programme.

Richard Falk argues that the purpose of `this attempt to supersede and
nullify the Iran deal is banishing the Brazilian and Turkish intruders
from the geopolitical playing field.' He is pointing the finger
primarily at the US but the prevarication by Russia makes it looks
like it too is protecting its role as one of the big guns. The true
test of its intentions will be if it can balance its desire to placate
Washington without jeopardising the B-T-I breakthrough, which Falk
calls `a new geopolitical landscape in which the countries of the
global South are now beginning to act as subjects, and no longer
content to be mere objects in scenarios devised in the North.'

The US-Iranian standoff is indeed evidence of real conflict -- between
empire and national sovereignty. So is the US-Russia standoff over
NATO expansion and bases on its borders. But the fight against
Washington's `new world order' is still a MAD dance of death, in the
first place, between the US and Russia, full of pratfalls, and keeps
us on the edge of our seats.

What is important is to bring the gruesome dance to a peaceful end and
move on to what Falk heralds as `a real new world order'

Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach him at ericwalberg.com.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe...germany.visit/

Sounds like a tit for tat deal has been arranged. Bribery is a pretty effective tool.

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Medvedev: World powers in agreement on Iran sanctions

(CNN) -- Calling Iran's nuclear stance "irresponsible, Russia's president said Iran's leadership needs to heed an international community now in agreement on sanctions against that country, a Russian state news agency reported.

"Nobody wants sanctions," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told reporters on Saturday during a visit to Germany, where he met with Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But in some cases, it is necessary to agree on them."

"The situation is such that in practical terms, agreements on these sanctions exist," he said.

Medvedev, whose country in the past has balked at tough measures against Iran, said Moscow's position on the Iran nuclear issue had moved closer to that of its Western partners, Ria Novosti reported.

"I think that this is very important for the future of the international community and... for the future of our relations with European and other countries -- with the United States and China," he said.

"We hope that Iran's leadership will listen to the voice of the international community," he said. "It is necessary to talk with partners within the international community, and that is the only way to solve the most difficult issues."

The five members of the U.N. Security Council -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China -- and Germany have been mulling over a tougher set of sanctions against Iran.

These nations say Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons development, but Iran says it is only interested in nuclear power for peaceful purposes.

"It is necessary to talk with partners within the international community, and that is the only way to solve the most difficult issues," Medvedev said, stressing that decisions like sanctions should be made through international consensus and not "personal ambitions."

In another matter, Medvedev said he hoping for a dialogue on the elimination of visas between his country and the European Union, a move that would free up travel in Europe.

Medvedev has said Russia was prepared to get rid of visa requirements for residents of EU states "tomorrow," if the EU did the same for Russians.

"If we do so, that will qualitatively change our lives, make us real, true strategic partners," he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/06/05/russia.germany.visit/

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Konstantin Zatulin: I’m not going to ask Azerbaijan whether I can travel to Armenia and NKR or not

PanARMENIAN.Net - Member of the Russian State Duma Konstantin Zatulin described Azerbaijan’s decision to ban the entry to the country for a number of Russian politicians as absurd.

“I am among the ‘blacklisted’ people but I should say that I never longed to visit Azerbaijan. I was there once, for a meeting of international council of Russian compatriots. I respect this country but I will not ask it whether I can travel to Armenia and NKR or not,” he said.

The politician explained Baku’s reaction as the consequence of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue.

“I do not believe that Nagorno Karabakh will ever be under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction again,” Zatulin said. “I always visited NK when I was invited to observe elections. Today, I wonder whether citizens of other countries were banned to enter Azerbaijan, because there were foreign officials observing the May 23 election as well.”

“Nagorno Karabakh has been holding elections for 16 years already and the point is that Baku has no possibility to accuse this republic of any human rights violations. Moreover, I want to mention that the power is not inherited in Karabakh, unlike Azerbaijan. So, no ban will make me change my position on the issue,” he concluded.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world...and_NKR_or_not

What a great responce. This guy laid it down the way it is and when you do that the turcks and azeris always look bad since they are confronted with the truth. The more stupid things mr alieve does like this the better for us.

[Lernakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Konstantin Zatulin: I’m not going to ask Azerbaijan whether I can travel to Armenia and NKR or not

PanARMENIAN.Net - Member of the Russian State Duma Konstantin Zatulin described Azerbaijan’s decision to ban the entry to the country for a number of Russian politicians as absurd.

“I am among the ‘blacklisted’ people but I should say that I never longed to visit Azerbaijan. I was there once, for a meeting of international council of Russian compatriots. I respect this country but I will not ask it whether I can travel to Armenia and NKR or not,” he said.

The politician explained Baku’s reaction as the consequence of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue.

“I do not believe that Nagorno Karabakh will ever be under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction again,” Zatulin said. “I always visited NK when I was invited to observe elections. Today, I wonder whether citizens of other countries were banned to enter Azerbaijan, because there were foreign officials observing the May 23 election as well.”

“Nagorno Karabakh has been holding elections for 16 years already and the point is that Baku has no possibility to accuse this republic of any human rights violations. Moreover, I want to mention that the power is not inherited in Karabakh, unlike Azerbaijan. So, no ban will make me change my position on the issue,” he concluded.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/49247/Konstantin_Zatulin_Im_not_going_to_ask_Azerbaijan_whether_I_can_travel_to_Armenia_and_NKR_or_not

[ZORAVAR]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Five Russian lawmakers declared personae non gratae for observing Karabakh polls

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has declared five members of Russia's lower house personae non gratae for observing parliamentary elections in the disputed area of Nagorny Karabakh, a spokesman for the ministry said on Wednesday.

"The decision is final. This list may be extended," Elkhan Pulukhov said.

However, he conceded, the measure might be reviewed if the five lawmakers admit that their involvement in monitoring the elections was "deliberate malice."

The predominantly ethnic Armenian region, at the center of a dispute between the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia since the late 1980s, elected its 33-seat parliament on May 23 with a voter turnout of almost 68%.

Konstantin Zatulin, one of those declared persona non grata, said the decision was a "demonstrative measure."

"I was an observer during presidential and parliamentary elections in Nagorny Karabakh more than once," the lawmaker said, adding it was "surprising" that his decision to take part in monitoring the polls sparked such a reaction "for the first time."

The other members from the State Duma considered persona non grata in Azerbaijan are Igor Chernyshenko, Kirill Cherkasov, Tatyana Volozhinskaya, and Maxim Mishchenko.

Azerbaijani officials have called the elections in Nagorny Karabakh "illegal," saying they could seriously harm Armenian-Azerbaijani peace efforts.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh first erupted in 1988, when the region claimed independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia.

Over 30,000 people are estimated to have died on both sides between 1988 and 1994, when a ceasefire was agreed. Nagorny Karabakh has remained in Armenian control and tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have persisted.

The conflict has been mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group that comprises the United States, Russia and France.

BAKU, May 26 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/exsoviet/20100526/159169547.html

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Thanks for the article Muhaha. If this article is indeed true then Armenia got the lesser deal from the win-win scenerio it was in. Passing those lines through Hayastan would have been the prefered deal but this scenerio also has a positive aspect to it. Having played its cards now Russia is left with fewer cards to play in this game. Sure the energy projects like the nuclear plant etc... bolster Russian presence in the region but now it has very few other ways to strongarm the turcks (azery or turcky) other then through Armenia. So how you say can Armenia possibly be used to strongarm more powerfull states? Well the answer is that all the pipelines to turckey pass close to Armenia thus should the turcks and azeris get too demanding then another war may break out with Armenia destroying the sections of pipelines close to its borders. We may see russia significantly bolstering Armenias militery strength now to make sure such a threat is a real one. Unfortunetly this scenerio may involve us in another war but atleast we will be backed by the big bear if it does happen. It is rather depressing how foreighn policy of Armenia is decided by the big players vs its own people but that is life for now.

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I highlighted the paragraphs that mention Armenia but the whole article is interesting and should be read.
----------------------------------
Russia, Turkey: A Grand Energy Bargain?

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev paid a visit to Turkey on May 11-12, during which he signed agreements for $25 billion in projects — mostly in the energy sector — including a massive commitment to build a $20 billion, 4.8-gigawatt (GW) nuclear power plant. Medvedev’s visit is the culmination of months of negotiations between Ankara and Moscow over where the countries could agree to disagree on the future of Eurasian energy flows.

Turkey, straddling Europe, Asia and the Middle East, is looking to bolster its geopolitical standing by signing deals that would allow Turkey to transit energy from the East to the European markets. Russia, as the dominant natural gas supplier for Europe, wants to ensure Turkey does not give Europe too many options in circumventing Russian energy networks.

Since Russia and Turkey are both resurgent powers in the region, the energy issue can turn quite thorny at times, particularly as the West is leaning on Turkey to keep its distance from Moscow. But Russia and Turkey are not looking for an energy brawl at the moment. Tensions exist between these historic rivals, but the current geopolitical environment is pushing the two sides to work with — instead of against — each other.

Competing Over Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has long been a pawn in Turkey’s negotiations with Russia. The country shares deep cultural and linguistic linkages to Turkey, and already transports roughly 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year for the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline, which circumvents Russia and carries natural gas from Azerbaijan’s offshore Shah Deniz fields through Georgia to Turkey for the European market. Phase II of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz project is expected to come online in 2018 and produce 15 bcm per year, 12 bcm of which would be available for export. Turkey wants to secure as much of that remainder for export as possible so it can transit substantial amounts of natural gas through its territory for projects like the much-touted Nabucco pipeline, designed to provide Europe with a non-Russian-influenced natural gas alternative. Russia, which has a strategic interest in maintaining an energy stranglehold on Europe, naturally wants to ensure pipeline projects such as Nabucco remain pipe dreams.



Such an opportunity arose for Russia roughly two years ago when Turkey began pursuing a diplomatic rapprochement with Azerbaijan’s biggest foe, Armenia. Azerbaijan was deeply offended that Turkey would try to make nice with Armenia without first ensuring Azerbaijani demands were met on Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory that Armenia seized from Azerbaijan in a war in the early 1990s. As Turkish-Azerbaijani relations deteriorated, Russia made sure it was there for Baku in its time of need, giving Moscow the leverage it was seeking over issues such as Shah Deniz II pricing agreements. So, whenever Turkey approached Baku for a pricing deal on Shah Deniz II, Russia would outbid the Turks and the Azerbaijanis would continue to hold out on a deal. At the same time, Russia used its clout over Armenia to ensure that Turkish-Armenian negotiations remained deadlocked.

In the days leading up to Medvedev’s visit to Turkey, however, signs of progress between Turkey and Azerbaijan over Shah Deniz II started coming to light. Azerbaijani Energy Minister Natik Aliyev announced May 5 that Turkey and Azerbaijan were coming close to a final pricing agreement to supply Turkey with a minimum of 7 bcm of natural gas from Shah Deniz II. According to a STRATFOR source, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thus far made a verbal agreement with an advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for Turkey to pay around $220-270 per thousand cubic meters. This starting price is considerably lower than the Russians’ earlier offer of $300 per thousand cubic meters. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that these negotiations picked up just prior to Medvedev’s visit. If Baku was moving forward with Ankara on a Shah Deniz II deal, the Russians likely facilitated these negotiations.

Nabucco On The Back Burner

However, this assistance came at a price. Russia does not want Azerbaijan’s natural gas to go toward a pipeline project like Nabucco that directly violates Russian energy imperatives. That said, there are signs that Russia may be willing to let a bit of its energy stranglehold over Europe slip if, in return, it can more firmly entrench itself in Turkey, the crucial link to Europe’s energy diversification efforts. According to a STRATFOR source, Russia has given its consent for now to the Turkey-Azerbaijan natural gas deal on the condition that the massive Nabucco project be shelved.

The source claims Russia and Turkey have agreed for the time being that Turkey will focus its attention on another, smaller pipeline to carry the extra Azerbaijani natural gas: the Interconnection Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI) and Poseidon pipeline project. This pipeline would take Azerbaijani natural gas across Georgia and Turkey (through an existing Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline) into Greece, and from there into Italy through an underwater pipeline across the Ionian Sea.

The ITGI-Poseidon project would have a capacity of 11.8 bcm per year compared to Nabucco’s capacity goal of 31 bcm per year. This difference in market share makes ITGI-Poseidon a more acceptable compromise for the Russians. Moreover, there is potential down the road for Russia to link into this pipeline project through its ambitious South Stream project led by Russian natural gas giant Gazprom, which aims to deliver Russian energy supplies to Europe across the Black Sea.

The ITGI project — priced at roughly $507 million — would be far more cost effective than Nabucco, the total estimated cost of which is as high as $11 billion. The ITGI project is also already under way, with the Greece-Turkey connection having come online in early 2007. Under the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP), the European Union has also pledged a grant of $126.9 million for the final section of the project, the Poseidon pipeline. It remains to be seen whether Turkey will be able to convince its European partners, now struggling with the Greek financial maelstrom, to put down more money to see through this project, as well as others such as Nabucco in the future. However, Turkey will be able to make a much more convincing argument for more funding if it can secure Azerbaijani natural gas to source these projects.

Azerbaijan’s Demands

Azerbaijan’s demands in this whole affair are quite simple. Baku wants a favorable price on its natural gas, but is also looking for guarantees from Ankara that the Turkish government will not pursue meaningful peace talks with Armenia without first addressing Azerbaijani concerns over Nagorno-Karabakh. Given that the Turkey-Armenia talks have been deadlocked since early spring, Turkey likely has the diplomatic bandwidth to offer such guarantees in the interest of securing this natural gas deal and mending its relationship with Azerbaijan.

Unprecedented Deal-Making?

Russia had to have a strategic purpose for it to start easing its grip on the Shah Deniz II negotiations between Turkey and Azerbaijan. That strategic purpose may have manifested itself during Medvedev’s May 12 visit to Turkey. During that visit, two significant energy deals were signed that signaled Russian-Turkish energy integration on an unprecedented scale.

The first deal was for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant by a Russian-led consortium led by Atomstroyexport and Inter RAO. The power plant will have four reactors with a total capacity 4.8 GW and cost roughly $20 billion. The scale of this project cannot be emphasized enough. If this nuclear power plant is built, Turkey will be home to one of the largest nuclear energy installations in the world. Russia has not even built a nuclear power plant on this scale for itself, and does not have a reputation for providing the necessary funding to bring such projects into realization.

STRATFOR sources, however, claim many of the details of the deal have been worked out. Russia will have a controlling stake in the plant and sell the rest (up to 49 percent) to other investors, most likely Turkish firms such as AKSA, which has strong political and family ties to Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party. The plant will likely be built in two stages; two reactors built, followed by the second two. The construction for the power plant near Turkey’s southern Mediterranean coastal town of Akkuyu is expected to take seven years, and can only begin after both parliaments ratify the agreement.

Instead of having Turkey pay a large amount of money up front, Turkish electricity firm TEDAS has signed an agreement to buy electricity from the plant for a minimum of 15 years, allowing Turkey to pay for the construction in installments once the plant becomes operational. Russia is expected to use this 15-year guarantee to secure loans for the project. Turkey will also have to rely on Russia for maintenance and the technological components for the plant, giving Moscow the long-term leverage it has been seeking in the Turkish energy sector. Still, $20 billion is an enormous sum, and STRATFOR remains deeply skeptical as to whether Russia will indeed follow through with its financial commitment to get this project off the ground. If it does, this project would signify a sea change in Russian investment behavior. It would also raise questions as to where else Russia could put its money in pursuit of its strategic energy goals.

Another agreement was signed for Russia to supply a pipeline that would pump Russian oil from the Black Sea port of Samsun in northern Turkey to the Ceyhan oil terminal in southern Turkey on the Mediterranean coast. Turkish firm Calik Energy (which has close ties to the AKP government) and Italian firm ENI (which has close ties to Russian energy giant Gazprom) are building the pipeline, which will have a capacity of between 1.2 million and 1.4 million barrels per day. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said the Samsun-Ceyhan deal would cost $3 billion, and STRATFOR sources claim Calik Energy will be responsible for financing most of the deal. The purpose of this north-south pipeline is to alleviate the heavy congestion of oil tankers traveling through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to travel between the Black and Mediterranean seas, an issue Turkey and international energy firms have been grappling with for some time. The main purpose of the pipeline will be to decrease traffic of the larger 350,000-400,000-ton tankers and free up the straits for the 150,000-ton tankers. The economic viability of this pipeline has long been in question, however, given that transit through the Bosporus and Dardanelles is free by law. It thus remains to be seen what economic incentives will be given for tankers to bring oil to Samsun port to be transported through the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey already imports more than 60 percent of its energy supplies from Russia, and that energy dependence will deepen if this pipeline becomes operational.

Nothing Firm Yet

STRATFOR will thus be closely watching the Turkish-Russian nuclear power and Samsun-Ceyhan agreements, as well as whether Turkey and Azerbaijan will strike a deal over Shah Deniz II in the coming days, as officials on both sides have been claiming. Any of these deals would only be sealed under a broader understanding between Moscow and Ankara. Yet each of these deals also comes with substantial caveats. In addition to the economic feasibility issues attached to the nuclear power plant and Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline deals, a potential Shah Deniz II deal would likely contain a number of loopholes. For example, Turkey can assure Russia right now that the extra natural gas it receives from Azerbaijan will not go toward Nabucco, and then divert the natural gas toward whatever project it chooses down the line. By the same token, Russia can facilitate negotiations between Turkey and Azerbaijan over Shah Deniz II right now to secure the energy deals it wants with Turkey on nuclear power and natural gas supplies, but can also use its influence with Azerbaijan to scuttle the Shah Deniz II deal between Ankara and Baku at a later point in time. Nothing is set in stone in this flurry of pipeline politics, but for now, Russia and Turkey appear to be working toward a mutual energy understanding.

http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/05/14/russia-turkey-a-grand-energy-bargain/