The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[SoyElTurco]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Britain feared annihilation by Soviets

Square Leg

[jgk3]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Nice way to open the new year, continued isolation of Ukraine as gas price talks with Russia continue to sour. Ukraine attempted to appease Russia yesterday by paying part of its November and December debt, but I guess Putin thinks its more profitable to play hardball and completely cut off gas supply to Ukraine at the expense of Ukraine's reputation as a gas supplier amongst EU members.

This also falls into the question of Russia's natural gas supply to Europe, because now Gazprom is forced to buy from Central Asian suppliers at full price. Gazprom wants to make a profit on its supply of natural gas from Central Asia, not a loss, and Ukraine's Naftogaz thinks it can get away with prices which translate into a loss for Gazprom.... Think again.

There's also a major domestic turmoil as a result of Ukraine's failure as an oil supplier to the west and more directly, because of its dependence on Russian prices to fuel its own country. This has resulted in a rift between Yushchenko and Timoshenko, former Orange Revolution allies as each of them is seeking to take credit for resolving the oil conflict with Russia. I wonder how the Kremlin will play their hand with these two, each one seeking to enhance their own career at the expense of the other.

Meanwhile, Russia knows it can't push too hard on the gas cuts that could affect the rest of Europe as it doesn't want to alienate its potential partners in the EU such as Germany or Italy. A cooperative attitude towards Russia by those key EU members states is vital for Russian trade.

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Russia Cuts Gas to Ukraine as Both Sides Seek Talks



By Stephen Bierman and Henry Meyer

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Russia halted gas supplies to Ukraine today for the second time in three years in a payments dispute, raising the threat of disruption to natural-gas shipments to Europe, as both sides said they wanted talks to resume.

Negotiations broke down shortly before midnight after Ukraine rejected an offer from OAO Gazprom, Russia’s state gas exporter, to sell it the fuel this year at $250 per 1,000 cubic meters, and insisted that Russia also pay higher transit fees. Ukraine said today it is seeking a price of $201.

The repeat of an energy standoff between the former Soviet neighbors risks further souring Russia’s ties with the West, months after its war with U.S. ally Georgia. Gazprom, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s natural gas, mostly through Ukraine, cut Ukrainian deliveries in January 2006 amid a similar pricing dispute. The shutdown reduced gas flows to Europe and led to questions over both countries’ reliability as suppliers.

The European Union “trusts that we can count upon assurances given that gas supplies to the EU will be unaffected, as a demonstration of the reliability of its gas suppliers,” European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs said today in a statement issued by the Czech Presidency of the EU. It urged Russia and Ukraine to “rapidly” resolve the dispute through talks.

Talks Urged

Russia stands to look “brutal and ruthless” while Ukraine’s reliability as a supplier to Europe will be “called into question and its squabbling leadership will lose credibility domestically and abroad,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based research group, said in an e-mailed commentary.

Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said that price was not the main issue holding up an agreement, telling a press conference in Moscow today that the Ukrainian delegation didn’t have a mandate to sign a contract.

He called for a resumption of negotiations. State Ukrainian energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy said it also wants to resume talks with Russia, though it did not say how soon it expects this to happen. Naftogaz Chief Executive Officer Oleh Dubina planned to hold a press conference at 4 p.m. Kiev time today.

Ukraine suggested the EU could become involved in talks with Russia, according to a statement posted on the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Web site today.

The International Energy Agency said it hopes the dispute will have minimal impact on natural-gas customers and shouldn’t damage third parties.

European Gas

“We are getting the impression that there are some political forces in Ukraine that are very interested in seeing a gas conflict between our countries,” Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller said late yesterday. “All responsibility for this situation lies with the Ukrainian side.”

The threat to European energy supplies is less severe than during a similar dispute in 2006, because liquefied natural gas shipments have diversified supplies, the weather in Europe is warmer and utilities say they have sufficient inventories. Ukraine says it has gas in storage equivalent to about 35 percent of annual consumption.

In 2006, some consumers, including in Hungary and Italy, registered shortfalls in shipments in the shutoff, which lasted for more than two days. Gazprom then blamed Ukraine for causing the shortages by stealing gas, a claim rejected by the Ukrainian side.

‘Serious Consequences’

Ukraine is guaranteeing the stable transit of Russian gas to European Union, President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko said today in a joint statement on the president’s Web site.

Ukraine faces “serious consequences” in its relations with Russia and its reputation among consumers in EU countries should it disrupt Russian natural-gas supplies to Europe, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned yesterday.

Gazprom at 10 a.m. Moscow time today halted deliveries of 110 million cubic meters a day of gas destined for Ukraine. Gas pumped to European customers was increased by 20 million cubic meters above normal volumes to 326 million cubic meters a day, Kupriyanov said.

E.ON Ruhrgas AG, the gas unit of Germany’s largest utility, said it is prepared for a reduction of Russian gas supplies, and could secure shipments from Norway and the Netherlands. It would reach limits if the dispute led to “serious” cutbacks that lasted a long time and winter was especially cold, E.ON Ruhrgas said. Germany is Russia’s main gas market.

Payment Transfers

In Austria, which gets 51 percent of its gas from Russia, the largest oil and gas company, OMV AG, said it had enough gas in storage to ensure supplies for its customers. FGSZ Zrt, which operates Hungary’s transmission network, said in an e-mailed statement the country hasn’t had any problems with gas supply.

The failure to agree on new contract terms came after Ukraine sought to defuse the conflict by pledging to settle part of debts of $2.1 billion for gas received in November and December, plus fines.

Naftogaz said yesterday it transferred $1.52 billion to RosUkrEnergo AG, the Swiss-based trader half-owned by Gazprom that imports the gas from Russia, and will seek international arbitration over at least $450 million in fines for late payment levied by Gazprom.

Gazprom Finances

In 2006, the gas conflict was widely seen as a Russian response to the 2004 Orange Revolution that brought Western- backed opposition leaders to power in Ukraine. Ties between the the two countries have soured over Ukraine’s drive to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia has accused the Ukrainian leadership of supplying weapons to Georgia in the August conflict.

This time, Gazprom is short of funds because of the global financial crunch.

While Gazprom’s price offer represented a 39 percent increase on the $179.5 per 1,000 cubic meters Ukraine was paying for Russian gas in 2008, Putin said Gazprom will pay an average of $340 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas from three Central Asian nations in the first quarter.

Ukraine sees $201 per 1,000 cubic meters as an optimal price and no less than $2 per 1,000 cubic meters per 100 kilometers (62 miles) as an appropriate transit rate for Russian gas, according to the statement issued by Yushchenko and Timoshenko. That compares with the agreed 2008 rate of $1.70.

Widening Rift

“Now that Gazprom has to pay a full price for gas it buys from Central Asian producers, then selling gas at less than that to Ukraine is taking money out of the pockets of investors in Gazprom,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp. in Moscow.

Higher gas prices represent a problem for Ukraine, which like other emerging markets, has been shaken by a lack of credit, a weakening currency and plunging demand for its products due to the global financial crisis. In November, Ukraine received approval for a two-year, $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan to help support its banking system and rising current-account deficit.

A widening rift between Yushchenko and Timoshenko, former Orange Revolution allies who are each looking to take the credit for resolving the Russian gas dispute, is also blocking an agreement, analysts say.

Gazprom’s Miller said yesterday that Yushchenko had blocked an agreement after Timoshenko aborted plans to fly to Moscow to negotiate the gas contract.

“Part of the problem is financial but a big part is Ukraine politics and the differences between the prime minister’s office and the presidency,” said Weafer.

-- With reporting by Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev, Yon Pulkrabek in Prague, Sheenagh Matthews in Frankfurt and Zoe Schneeweiss in Vienna. Editors: Guy Collins, Shaji Mathew

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&refer=home&sid=aNJEYayobO4M

WRAPUP 11-Russia cuts off gas to Ukraine

* Russia signals tough stance with higher gas price offer

* Ukraine president says wants talks, hopeful for deal

* EU, U.S. call for swift resolution to row

* Several European countries report supplies unaffected

By Christian Lowe and Pavel Polityuk

MOSCOW/KIEV, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Russia cut off the gas to its neighbour Ukraine on Thursday after a contract dispute but increased supplies to other European states to try to reassure customers worried about possible disruption.

The European Union, which receives a fifth of its gas from pipelines crossing Ukraine, and the United States urged further negotiations to resolve the dispute and said all supply commitments must be met.

Energy firms in Germany, France, Poland, Romania, Austria and Italy said they had not yet seen any drop in supply. Europe has enough gas stockpiled to manage without Russian gas for several days, though not weeks, analysts said.

The row could raise new doubts about Moscow's reliability as an energy supplier and fuel suspicions in the West -- already running high since Russia's war with Georgia last August -- that the Kremlin bullies its pro-Western neighbours.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, the target of fierce criticism from Moscow over his drive to take Ukraine into the NATO alliance, said he wanted to resume talks with Moscow to settle a row over payment arrears and gas prices for 2009.

Yushchenko said in a statement he believed a compromise deal with Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom was achievable by Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 7.

Signalling a possible way out of the stand-off, Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz increased the amount it said it was prepared to pay for Russian gas to $235 per 1,000 cubic metres -- $15 short of the amount Russia had earlier demanded -- but also said it wanted Russia to pay higher transit fees.

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom, signalled a tougher stance, saying it now wanted Ukraine to pay $418 per 1,000 cubic metres, more than double the $179.5 paid last year.

The EU is keen to avoid a repeat of a January 2006 row when Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine, causing a brief reduction in gas deliveries to other parts of Europe in mid-winter.

Gazprom halted supplies to Ukraine on Thursday morning after a failure to agree terms for supplying gas in 2009.

"We have fully cut off supplies to Ukraine as of 10:00 a.m. (0700 GMT) today," a Gazprom official told reporters at company headquarters in Moscow. "We continue supplying Europe in full."

PUMPING GAS

Ukraine's Naftogaz said it had seen a reduction of pressure in its pipelines, and was pumping gas from its stockpiles, which it says are sufficient to last it several months.

Ordinary Ukrainians seemed resigned.

Alexander, a middle-aged man on a Kiev street, said: "This is all politics: they (the Russians) just decided to do this from the start of the New Year and probably in a month or so everything will simply resolve itself."

A woman who gave her name as Yulia said: "I have got used to this. It happens every year."

Both Russia and Ukraine say they will do nothing to jeopardise supplies to Europe.

The cut-off could, however, have a knock-on effect if it causes a drop in pressure in the transit pipelines or if Ukraine diverts flows bound for Europe.

Naftogaz chief Oleh Dubyna said the firm was diverting 21 million cubic metres per day of Russian gas bound for Europe. He said the gas was needed to maintain sufficient pressure in the pipeline network to keep transit gas moving.

Gazprom said it had stepped up volumes for European consumers beyond Ukraine to 326 million cubic metres (mcm) per day from the usual level of 300 mcm -- a step which may have been aimed at offsetting the gas Ukraine was diverting.

Russia has dismissed questions about its reliability as an energy supplier and Kremlin officials say there is no reason why Moscow should subsidise Ukraine with cheap gas if its leaders want to join the NATO military alliance.

At the Texas ranch of U.S. President George W. Bush, a White House spokesman urged Moscow and Kiev to bear in mind the possible humanitarian implications of supply disruptions.

"We hope that Russia and Ukraine can resolve their dispute over the gas debt and the terms of their natural gas supply arrangements in a transparent, commercial manner," Gordon Johndroe said in a written statement.

The EU urged more talks and said all existing commitments to supply and transit must be honoured.

Germany, France and Italy are among the biggest customers for Russian gas.

Bernhard Reutersberg, chairman of German energy firm E.ON Ruhrgas, which is a Gazprom shareholder, did not anticipate any shortages for consumers.

He said that if "the supply restrictions prove to be serious and long-lasting and the winter turns out to be particularly cold, our means of offsetting the shortfalls will come up against limits".

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFLV40339620090101?rpc=44&sp=true

[Anonymouse]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Swaggering on

But Russia will find the going harder



A few minutes before midnight on December 31st 2008, President Dmitry Medvedev will stroll out of the Kremlin and stand before cameras in Red Square, steam coming from his mouth. In his first new-year address to the nation he will speak about Russia’s resurgence and its demand for respect; he may talk about his difficult decision to send troops to Georgia; he is likely to mention the turbulent economic climate and Russia’s ability to weather the storm. Then the clock on the Kremlin tower will strike 12 and millions of Russians will click glasses to the tune of the old Soviet anthem, restored by Vladimir Putin eight years ago.

What will happen next and how much Mr Medvedev’s reassuring words will correspond with reality is harder to predict. But all the signs are that Russia is heading into its first truly difficult years since Mr Putin took power in 2000. Its small victorious war in Georgia was the culmination of Mr Putin’s era, which was marked by high oil prices and the sense of restored pride. In practical terms, however, this escapade did not win Russia anything that it did not have already while pushing its relationship with the West to a new low. Russia’s hurried recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which it controlled anyway, has created the prospect of a prolonged stand-off with the West.

When Mr Putin announced his choice of Mr Medvedev as his successor some forxeign pundits, bankers and home-bred liberals rejoiced: at last, after the belligerent Mr Putin, comes a mild-speaking young lawyer with no background in the secret services and few memories of the cold war. Only unrepentant pessimists, such as Andrei Illarionov, who had worked with Mr Medvedev at one stage, gloomily predicted that Mr Medvedev would try to overcompensate for his civilian background. So far the pessimists have the upper hand: Mr Medvedev has tried to prove himself not by diverging from Mr Putin, but by imitating Mr Putin’s bellicose style and sounding even tougher than his patron.

The West may not have much leverage over Russia, but the rift in the relationship is coming at a time when Russia can least afford it. One reason Mr Putin was able to ignore Western opinion on human rights or the worsening business climate was that Russia was swimming in money. The Kremlin never paid the price for destroying the Yukos oil company or revising the terms of producxtion-sharing agreements with foreign firms. Rising oil prices and a steady flow of cheap credits from foreign banks made Mr Putin feel all but invincible and masked structural problems in the economy.

In 2009 Russia will face a much tougher economic reality. Credits from foreign banks have dried up. Oil prices have fallen sharply. Imports are rising faster than exports, so that Russia’s trade surplus, which had been growing strongly, will start to shrink. To make up for this, the government will spend more money from its oil-fuelled stabilisation fund, but some of this money will go into inefficient state corporations, increasing the state’s share in the economy and complicating efforts to bring down inflation, which is in double digits. Russians will see their real incomes grow more slowly.

No more mister tough guy?

In the past, the Kremlin had to worry only about a marginalised group of Russian liberals. Now it may face discontent from a wider public which cheered Mr Putin’s tough stance with the West while incomes rose.

Russia’s economic growth will become a lot more dependent on foreign investments. The optimistic scenario is that Russia’s economic needs will tame its hostility towards the West and that the political system created by Mr Putin and inherited by Mr Medvedev will become more flexible. The war in Georgia makes this scenario less likely than it would have been a year ago. Instead, the self-sustained logic of the Putin regime suggests that Russia will continue to search for enemies both outside the country and within. This may mean more hostile rhetoric and possibly actions in the former Soviet republics which Russia considers its own sphere of influence.

But it would also make Russia’s economic modernisation less likely. Several years of unchecked xenophobia have made Russians much more receptive to authoritarian and nationalistic rule than to liberal ideas. On the other hand, the more oppressive the Kremlin becomes, the more resistance it will face from its own ethnically Muslim republics, particularly in Ingushetia, where people are fed up with corrupt leadership and the constant abuse of human rights. In the short term, Russia’s war in Georgia has served as a reminder to places like Ingushetia and Chechnya that Moscow is ready to steamroll any opposition. But in the longer term, having undermined Georgia’s territorial integrity, Russia has inadvertently put its own at risk as well.

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12494494&source=features_box_main

[jgk3]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Good point, Russia has had the upper hand in securing its road to resurgence while oil prices were high. What they do at this point is a true test in judging how well the Kremlin can keep its gains. Of course, it would help if the west could stop probing with Nato expansionism, which forces the Russian bear to grow hostile towards the west. But the deaf ears of Nato and Washington also has a longterm strategic purpose, as it leads the EU (a major market that Russia needs to tap into in order to grow) and thus has great leverage power against Russia economically.

[Anonymouse]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Good point, Russia has had the upper hand in securing its road to resurgence while oil prices were high. What they do at this point is a true test in judging how well the Kremlin can keep its gains. Of course, it would help if the west could stop probing with Nato expansionism, which forces the Russian bear to grow hostile towards the west. But the deaf ears of Nato and Washington also has a longterm strategic purpose, as it leads the EU (a major market that Russia needs to tap into in order to grow) and thus has great leverage power against Russia economically.

It doesn't matter what the "West" does. Oswald Spengler called it in the beginning of the 20th century that the "West" is declining, and rightfully so.

[jgk3]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It doesn't matter what the "West" does. Oswald Spengler called it in the beginning of the 20th century that the "West" is declining, and rightfully so.

[Anonymouse]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia to send humanitarian supplies to Gaza Strip soon – Lavrov
Itar Tass - 2008-12-31

MOSCOW, December 31 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke in favour of rallying the Palestinian forces, the Russian Foreign Ministry said after a telephone conversation between the Russian foreign minister and head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic movement Hamas Khaled Mashaal on Wednesday. The sides discussed in detail a sharply deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip after Israel had launched a large-scale military operation.

“Sergei Lavrov stressed the need for an immediate mutual ceasefire and expressed profound concerns over a dramatic humanitarian situation emerging in the Gaza Strip. Lavrov informed Mashaal about Russia’s plans to send humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip soon,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

“In reply to an address of the Russian minister Mashaal stated about his readiness to stop the armed confrontation, but along with lifting the blockade from the Gaza Strip. The Hamas leader outlined the movement’s position on resuming the dialogue within inter-Palestinian reconciliation efforts,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. He also thanked for additional humanitarian supplies and pledged to give the possible assistance in the evacuation of citizens from Russia and CIS states from the Gaza Strip, noting, “the conditions of the Gaza Strip blockade and the Israeli armed attack complicate the situation.”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11571

[SweetAngessa]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Dear Armenians,

I hope all of you had the most wonder New Year with your family and friends. I wish and pray for happiness to all Armenian people. I have faith in you most noble Armenian people, that you may raise again to great sucessus in new year. You have lived and survived for thousands of years agianest all odds and enemies. May god bless you Armenian,are allies, brothers, sisters and most of all friends in this upcoming Christmas and year.


My most warm regard Angessa,

Here is some links from musical new year program(Новогодняя ночь 2009) if your interested.

http://ru.youtube.com/watch?feature=channel&v=Kp9IWPFacAY

http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=V06i1281f1E&feature=channel

http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=0RtkDBf4udM&feature=channel_page

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

If true, this is a very interesting development.

**********************************

Azerbaijan bans foreign radio broadcasts on local frequencies

Foreign radio stations are not allowed to broadcast on local frequencies in Azerbaijan as of January 1, the oil-rich state's communication ministry said on Thursday. The December 30, 2008 decision by Azerbaijan's National Television and Radio Council, criticized by Western nations as undemocratic, terminates the broadcasting licenses of the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and some other stations. The foreign stations are now only allowed to broadcast in the ex-Soviet Caucasus republic via satellite, Internet or cable. The U.S. State Department earlier said the move would "represent a serious setback to freedom of speech, and retard democratic reform in Azerbaijan." Azerbaijan has also tightened requirements for domestic TV and radio channels. All broadcasts must be in Azerbaijani, except for news broadcasts, which can be in Russian and English, but with Azerbaijani subtitles, according to Council chairman Nushirevan Magerramli. Magerramli said educational programs were also allowed to be broadcast in foreign languages, but with subtitles, and they must not be longer than 30 minutes. The media decision came after Azerbaijan's Constitutional Court approved in late December amendments to the Constitution, which will allow the president to be elected an infinite number of times. Current leader Ilham Aliyev took over as president when his father, Heydar, stepped down in 2003, subsequently winning the vote in that year's presidential election. In October, Aliyev received 88.73% of the vote to win a second five-year term as president. The country will have a referendum on the amendments in March.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20090101/119305456.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Dear Armenians,

I hope all of you had the most wonder New Year with your family and friends. I wish and pray for happiness to all Armenian people. I have faith in you most noble Armenian people, that you may raise again to great sucessus in new year. You have lived and survived for thousands of years agianest all odds and enemies. May god bless you Armenian,are allies, brothers, sisters and most of all friends in this upcoming Christmas and year.

My most warm regard Angessa,

Thank you for your very kind words, Angessa. I wish you and your family much health and happiness. I wish your great nation peace and prosperity. May the new year bring our two nations even closer.