Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations
That's an interesting point
It might not be the case though because the negotiations for the EU started long time ago, with the partnership talks beginning in 2008. The Customs Union only came into existence in 2010. So When Armenia began its aspirations of joining the EU in the early 2000s, they probably didn't think Putin would one day start his pet project and demand Armenia be a part of it. Furthermore, when the EU aspirations began, the Armenia and Azerbaijan budget didn't have the wide discrepancy they had today and oil prices hadn't exploded. So Armenia's existence wasn't dependent on Russian military support.
But it true that now Armenia will get plenty of offers from the other side, as has already happened, in attempt to maintain some influence in Armenia.
I do think though ultimately, even when ignoring the military aspect, on a purely economic basis, the Customs Union is the way to go.
What would signing the EU partnership yield Armenia in the next 10 years? Realistically Armenia wouldn't be allowed to become a member of the EU before 2020. Right now Armenia's biggest existential threat is not Azerbaijan, but the emigration problem. Armenia needs to improve now, not in 10 years. All joining the EU would do is get a chance to follow directions like dog (i.e Turkey) to get in line with the guidelines and principles of the EU. By the time Armenia joined the EU there might not have been anyone left in Armenia. Moreover, the EU is broke. It has bailed out so many of its failing economies, it doesn't simply have money to throw around. Even if such money was to be thrown around, it wouldn't be done without serious reforms which would have taken years. The aid already given, and the aid that will continue to be given is essential in developing Armenia where the standard of living to reverse the trend in immigration.
Originally posted by Artashes
View Post
It might not be the case though because the negotiations for the EU started long time ago, with the partnership talks beginning in 2008. The Customs Union only came into existence in 2010. So When Armenia began its aspirations of joining the EU in the early 2000s, they probably didn't think Putin would one day start his pet project and demand Armenia be a part of it. Furthermore, when the EU aspirations began, the Armenia and Azerbaijan budget didn't have the wide discrepancy they had today and oil prices hadn't exploded. So Armenia's existence wasn't dependent on Russian military support.
But it true that now Armenia will get plenty of offers from the other side, as has already happened, in attempt to maintain some influence in Armenia.
I do think though ultimately, even when ignoring the military aspect, on a purely economic basis, the Customs Union is the way to go.
What would signing the EU partnership yield Armenia in the next 10 years? Realistically Armenia wouldn't be allowed to become a member of the EU before 2020. Right now Armenia's biggest existential threat is not Azerbaijan, but the emigration problem. Armenia needs to improve now, not in 10 years. All joining the EU would do is get a chance to follow directions like dog (i.e Turkey) to get in line with the guidelines and principles of the EU. By the time Armenia joined the EU there might not have been anyone left in Armenia. Moreover, the EU is broke. It has bailed out so many of its failing economies, it doesn't simply have money to throw around. Even if such money was to be thrown around, it wouldn't be done without serious reforms which would have taken years. The aid already given, and the aid that will continue to be given is essential in developing Armenia where the standard of living to reverse the trend in immigration.
Comment