Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations
It's brewing again...
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At a most inopportune time, the Balkans are back. On Dec. 10, the U.S.-E.U.-Russian negotiating team tasked with getting the Serbs and Albanians to agree on Kosovo's future status will report to the United Nations that it has failed. A few weeks later Kosovo's government will proclaim that Kosovo is an independent nation -- a long overdue event. The United States and most of the European Union (led by Britain, France and Germany) will recognize Kosovo quickly. Russia and its allies will not. Kosovo's eight-year run as the biggest-ever U.N. project will end with great tension and a threat of violence that could spread to Bosnia. Because security in Kosovo is NATO's responsibility, there is an urgent need to beef up the NATO presence before this diplomatic train wreck. Just the thought of sending additional American troops into the region must horrify the Bush administration. Yet its hesitations and neglect helped create this dilemma -- which Russia has exploited.
There is more bad news, virtually unnoticed, from nearby Bosnia. Exactly 12 years after the Dayton peace agreement ended the war in Bosnia, Serb politicians, egged on by Moscow and Belgrade, are threatening that if Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia, then the Serb portion of Bosnia will declare its independence. Such unilateral secession, strictly forbidden under Dayton, would endanger the more than 150,000 Muslims who have returned there. Recent American diplomacy led by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns and special envoy Frank Wisner, working closely with E.U. negotiator Wolfgang Ischinger, has largely succeeded in persuading most of our European allies to recognize Kosovo rapidly. But NATO has not yet faced the need to reinforce its presence in Kosovo. Nor has serious transatlantic discussion begun on Bosnia, even though Charles English, the American ambassador in Sarajevo, and Raffi Gregorian, the deputy high representative in Bosnia, have warned of the danger. "Bosnia's very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks," Gregorian told Congress this month. Virtually no one paid any attention.
The icing on the cake? Russia has threatened to link the Kosovo issue to the claims of two rebellious areas of far-away Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These issues had seemed largely resolved in the late 1990s. For such extensive backsliding to occur took a poisonous combination of bad American decisions, European neglect and Russian aggressiveness. When Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in September 2000 and a reformist government took over, the road seemed open to a reasonably rapid resolution of Kosovo's final status. But the new Bush team hated anything it had inherited from Bill Clinton -- even (perhaps especially) his greatest successes -- and made no effort to advance policy in Kosovo until 2005 and ignored Bosnia. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld even sought to pull American troops out of the NATO command in Kosovo, which Secretary of State Colin Powell prevented. (However, the State Department did not prevent Rumsfeld from prematurely turning the NATO command in Bosnia over to a weak E.U. Force, a terrible mistake.)
By the time meaningful diplomatic efforts started in 2006, the reformist prime minister in Belgrade had been assassinated by ultranationalists. And Vladimir Putin decided to reenter the Balkans with a dramatic policy shift: No longer would Russia cooperate with Washington and Brussels in the search for a peaceful compromise, as it had in 1995 when Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin sat on the hillside at Hyde Park and reached a historic agreement to put Russian troops under NATO command. Today, Putin seeks to reassert Russia's role as a regional hegemon. He is not trying to start another Cold War, but he craves international respect, and the Balkans, neglected by a Bush administration retreating from its European security responsibilities, are a tempting target.
Putin was hardly quiet about this; I watched him bluntly warn German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and delegates to the Munich security conference in February that Russia would not agree to any Kosovo settlement that Belgrade opposed. There was a vague feeling in Washington and Brussels that Putin was bluffing -- and no real planning in case Putin meant it. Not only did he mean it, Putin upped the ante by extending his reach into the Serb portion of Bosnia. Using some of his petrodollars, Putin turned its mildly pro-Western leader, Milorad Dodik, into a nasty nationalist who began threatening secession. The vaunted Atlantic alliance has yet to address this problem at a serious policy level-- even though, as Gregorian warned, it could explode soon after Kosovo declares independence. The window of opportunity for a soft landing in Kosovo closed in 2004. Still, Bush should make one last, personal effort with Putin. His efforts must be backed by temporary additional troop deployments in the region. It is not too late to prevent violence, but it will take American-led action and time is running out.
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...112301237.html
In related news:
With both outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units armed and patrolling the borders in Kosovo and Macedonia ahead of the official end of internationally mediated talks on Kosovo's status on 10 December, renewed conflict seems inevitable. Frustrated with the stalemate over the status of Serbia's province of Kosovo, outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units have begun patrolling the area "defending borders" - not only in Kosovo, but in Macedonia as well, confirming fears of a renewal of armed conflict. With the latest round of negotiations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia having failed and independence prolonged due never-ending disputes among western countries and Russia, it seems that Kosovo and Macedonian war veterans view another armed conflict as the best and perhaps only solution. In mid-October, the outlawed Albanian National Army (ANA) began openly patrolling towns in northern Kosovo on the Serbia border, establishing checkpoints on Kosovo's important highways, inspecting passing vehicles. They claim that patrolling the provincial towns and roads represent a preventive measure to thwart a potential Serb incursion into the area.
Meanwhile, Kosovo Serb minority representatives say that the ANA is planning attacks on their enclaves in the province. The Serb National Council (SNV) of Northern Kosovo said it had information that the ANA was planning an attack on the Serb part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica. A quick reaction to these claims came from the recently founded "Tsar Lazar's Guard," a group that also, according to Kosovo media, has organized patrols in Serbia, near the Kosovo border. Media quoted local residents as saying that they had seen groups of uniformed and armed men in the area. In May, the Movement of Veterans of Serbia (PVS) - a minor extremist party with a single seat in the Serbian parliament - organized the Tsar Lazar's Guard paramilitary unit, comprised of war veterans from across Serbia who fought in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s. The unit is said to have 5,000 troops. Symbolically, the group was named after a Serbian noble who fought and died at the Battle of Kosovo in1389. Dozens of veterans pledged their allegiance to the unit in the Serbian city of Krusevac, promising to fight to the death to prevent Kosovo from being handed over to ethnic Albanians.
The international community has listed both the ANA and Tsar Lazar's Guard as terrorist groups. So far, there have been no reports that two units have clashed. However, they blame each other for provocations in the form of launching border patrols. The ANA says it is certain that Serbia will invade Kosovo again, and this time they will be prepared, while Tsar Lazar's Guard" is calling for protection of the Serbian minority there. Kosovo has been under UN administration since 1999, following a NATO bombing campaign that drove out Serb forces accused of ethnic cleansing. Several rounds of UN-sponsored talks in Vienna since February 2006 achieved little result, with the Serbian and Kosovo delegations refusing to budge from their original positions. Some 100,000 Serbs live in separate areas guarded by NATO peacekeepers in the restive province. Serbian officials estimate that about 200,000 Serbs have left their homes over the past seven years and settled in Serbia proper and throughout the Europe.
Propensity for violence
The UN and NATO see the ANA as a loosely organized terrorist group comprised of people who have shown in the past their propensity for brutal violence that does not have the backing of the majority of local people. Serbian and Kosovo media speculate that the ANA now has over 12,000 members, including intellectuals, students, farmers and former fighters all frustrated with provincial "leadership's soft approach regarding independence talks." The group grew out of the insurgent Macedonian ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA), whose former commanders are now members of the Macedonian parliament, and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA,) whose commanders are now ruling Kosovo. Neither Kosovo nor Macedonian ethnic Albanian leaders openly support the ANA's goals and have distanced themselves from the groups. The ANA, formed after the 2001 peace framework in Macedonia, calls for the unification of ethnic Albanian areas of the Western Balkans, including the western part of Macedonia and southern Serbia, and currently operates in Kosovo and Macedonia.
Only the Serbian Defense Ministry responded to the ANA's claims, saying that the Serbian Army would respond "at the speed of lightning" to any attempts of violence in the country's south. The NLA, whose political leaders have been damned as traitors by the ANA, launched a rebellion against Macedonian forces in January 2001, demanding greater rights for the republic's 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority. But the group, who controlled a swathe of territory along Macedonia's northern and western borders with Kosovo and Albania, laid down its weapons, gave up secession and signed a peace agreement with the Macedonian government. After the deal was inked, NATO in August 2001 sent in some 3,500 troops to conduct operation "Essential Harvest," with the goal of disarming the NLA and destroying its weapons. During the 30-day mission, NATO troops, with logistical support from Macedonian forces, confiscated more than 3,800 rifles, mortars, howitzers and a tank from ethnic Albanian rebels.
However, the signing of the peace agreement did not satisfy some radical ethnic Albanians, who continued with a small-scale armed rebellion. Since late 2001, the ANA has claimed responsibility for at least a dozen attacks on government infrastructure, including courts, the transportation network and former interior minister Ljube Boskoski, who is currently on trial for war crimes against Albanians committed in 2001. The clashes between Macedonian security forces and the ANA have intensified since August, when ethnic Albanians attacked a police station and police patrols near the border with Kosovo, the stronghold of Albanian guerrillas during the 2001 conflict. Then in early November, Macedonian security forces launched operation "Mountain Storm," clashing with ANA militants, though Macedonian officials said that the operation was carried out against alleged armed Albanian criminals, not insurgents.
After the operation, a until now unknown Kosovo-based "Political Advisory Body of the Kosovo Liberation Army" issued a statement taking responsibility for the shootout, claiming that its members were forced to "protect endangered Albanian nationals in the Serbia-Macedonia region." Police said eight gunmen were killed and 12 others arrested, while an impressive amount of weapons were seized. KFOR, NATO's 16,000-strong force in Kosovo, has increased its troop level on the Kosovo side of the border since the start of the Macedonian operation. However, ethnic Albanian Macedonian lawmaker Rafiz Aliti, former NLA commander and an official from the opposition Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) party, told parliament earlier this month that not only Macedonian security forces were involved in the clashes, but some paramilitary units as well. He said that villagers witnessed that some involved in operation "Mountain Storm" were speaking Serbian and had uniforms that some recognized as those worn by Tsar Lazar's Guard.
Insurgency inevitable
Whichever decision is made regarding Kosovo's status, whether the province is granted independence or not, the authorities will have difficulty preventing ethnic insurgency. In interviews with western media outlets, unnamed diplomats involved in the status process admit that some level of armed conflict is inevitable, but hope that KFOR will manage to control it. If independence is granted, there is a fear that Serbian paramilitary forces could intervene under the guise of protecting the Serb minority. On the other hand, Albanians will settle for nothing less then full independence, and their frustration will be taken out on the Serb minority and the international community if their demands are not met. Tsar Lazar's Guard has threatened to attack UN and NATO forces and buildings in Kosovo if the province is granted independence from Serbia. At the same time, the ANA has already claimed responsibility for several attacks against Macedonian government institutions since 2002 and attacks on UN and Serb enclaves in Kosovo, and anything short of independence will likely result in more attacks. On 21 November, commander of Tsar Lazar's Guard, Hadzi Andrej Milic, sent invitations to Serbian lawmakers to go to the war. He informed Serbian lawmakers that "members of the unit would gather on November 28th at Merdare, the administrative border crossing to Kosovo, to set up their headquarters in order to symbolically start the new war for the liberation of Kosovo."
[...]
Source: http://www.isaintel.com/site/index.p...d=105&Itemid=1
It's brewing again...
************************************************** ***************
Back to the Brink In the Balkans
At a most inopportune time, the Balkans are back. On Dec. 10, the U.S.-E.U.-Russian negotiating team tasked with getting the Serbs and Albanians to agree on Kosovo's future status will report to the United Nations that it has failed. A few weeks later Kosovo's government will proclaim that Kosovo is an independent nation -- a long overdue event. The United States and most of the European Union (led by Britain, France and Germany) will recognize Kosovo quickly. Russia and its allies will not. Kosovo's eight-year run as the biggest-ever U.N. project will end with great tension and a threat of violence that could spread to Bosnia. Because security in Kosovo is NATO's responsibility, there is an urgent need to beef up the NATO presence before this diplomatic train wreck. Just the thought of sending additional American troops into the region must horrify the Bush administration. Yet its hesitations and neglect helped create this dilemma -- which Russia has exploited.
There is more bad news, virtually unnoticed, from nearby Bosnia. Exactly 12 years after the Dayton peace agreement ended the war in Bosnia, Serb politicians, egged on by Moscow and Belgrade, are threatening that if Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia, then the Serb portion of Bosnia will declare its independence. Such unilateral secession, strictly forbidden under Dayton, would endanger the more than 150,000 Muslims who have returned there. Recent American diplomacy led by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns and special envoy Frank Wisner, working closely with E.U. negotiator Wolfgang Ischinger, has largely succeeded in persuading most of our European allies to recognize Kosovo rapidly. But NATO has not yet faced the need to reinforce its presence in Kosovo. Nor has serious transatlantic discussion begun on Bosnia, even though Charles English, the American ambassador in Sarajevo, and Raffi Gregorian, the deputy high representative in Bosnia, have warned of the danger. "Bosnia's very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks," Gregorian told Congress this month. Virtually no one paid any attention.
The icing on the cake? Russia has threatened to link the Kosovo issue to the claims of two rebellious areas of far-away Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These issues had seemed largely resolved in the late 1990s. For such extensive backsliding to occur took a poisonous combination of bad American decisions, European neglect and Russian aggressiveness. When Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in September 2000 and a reformist government took over, the road seemed open to a reasonably rapid resolution of Kosovo's final status. But the new Bush team hated anything it had inherited from Bill Clinton -- even (perhaps especially) his greatest successes -- and made no effort to advance policy in Kosovo until 2005 and ignored Bosnia. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld even sought to pull American troops out of the NATO command in Kosovo, which Secretary of State Colin Powell prevented. (However, the State Department did not prevent Rumsfeld from prematurely turning the NATO command in Bosnia over to a weak E.U. Force, a terrible mistake.)
By the time meaningful diplomatic efforts started in 2006, the reformist prime minister in Belgrade had been assassinated by ultranationalists. And Vladimir Putin decided to reenter the Balkans with a dramatic policy shift: No longer would Russia cooperate with Washington and Brussels in the search for a peaceful compromise, as it had in 1995 when Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin sat on the hillside at Hyde Park and reached a historic agreement to put Russian troops under NATO command. Today, Putin seeks to reassert Russia's role as a regional hegemon. He is not trying to start another Cold War, but he craves international respect, and the Balkans, neglected by a Bush administration retreating from its European security responsibilities, are a tempting target.
Putin was hardly quiet about this; I watched him bluntly warn German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and delegates to the Munich security conference in February that Russia would not agree to any Kosovo settlement that Belgrade opposed. There was a vague feeling in Washington and Brussels that Putin was bluffing -- and no real planning in case Putin meant it. Not only did he mean it, Putin upped the ante by extending his reach into the Serb portion of Bosnia. Using some of his petrodollars, Putin turned its mildly pro-Western leader, Milorad Dodik, into a nasty nationalist who began threatening secession. The vaunted Atlantic alliance has yet to address this problem at a serious policy level-- even though, as Gregorian warned, it could explode soon after Kosovo declares independence. The window of opportunity for a soft landing in Kosovo closed in 2004. Still, Bush should make one last, personal effort with Putin. His efforts must be backed by temporary additional troop deployments in the region. It is not too late to prevent violence, but it will take American-led action and time is running out.
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...112301237.html
In related news:
Kosovo: Armed for independence
With both outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units armed and patrolling the borders in Kosovo and Macedonia ahead of the official end of internationally mediated talks on Kosovo's status on 10 December, renewed conflict seems inevitable. Frustrated with the stalemate over the status of Serbia's province of Kosovo, outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units have begun patrolling the area "defending borders" - not only in Kosovo, but in Macedonia as well, confirming fears of a renewal of armed conflict. With the latest round of negotiations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia having failed and independence prolonged due never-ending disputes among western countries and Russia, it seems that Kosovo and Macedonian war veterans view another armed conflict as the best and perhaps only solution. In mid-October, the outlawed Albanian National Army (ANA) began openly patrolling towns in northern Kosovo on the Serbia border, establishing checkpoints on Kosovo's important highways, inspecting passing vehicles. They claim that patrolling the provincial towns and roads represent a preventive measure to thwart a potential Serb incursion into the area.
Meanwhile, Kosovo Serb minority representatives say that the ANA is planning attacks on their enclaves in the province. The Serb National Council (SNV) of Northern Kosovo said it had information that the ANA was planning an attack on the Serb part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica. A quick reaction to these claims came from the recently founded "Tsar Lazar's Guard," a group that also, according to Kosovo media, has organized patrols in Serbia, near the Kosovo border. Media quoted local residents as saying that they had seen groups of uniformed and armed men in the area. In May, the Movement of Veterans of Serbia (PVS) - a minor extremist party with a single seat in the Serbian parliament - organized the Tsar Lazar's Guard paramilitary unit, comprised of war veterans from across Serbia who fought in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s. The unit is said to have 5,000 troops. Symbolically, the group was named after a Serbian noble who fought and died at the Battle of Kosovo in1389. Dozens of veterans pledged their allegiance to the unit in the Serbian city of Krusevac, promising to fight to the death to prevent Kosovo from being handed over to ethnic Albanians.
The international community has listed both the ANA and Tsar Lazar's Guard as terrorist groups. So far, there have been no reports that two units have clashed. However, they blame each other for provocations in the form of launching border patrols. The ANA says it is certain that Serbia will invade Kosovo again, and this time they will be prepared, while Tsar Lazar's Guard" is calling for protection of the Serbian minority there. Kosovo has been under UN administration since 1999, following a NATO bombing campaign that drove out Serb forces accused of ethnic cleansing. Several rounds of UN-sponsored talks in Vienna since February 2006 achieved little result, with the Serbian and Kosovo delegations refusing to budge from their original positions. Some 100,000 Serbs live in separate areas guarded by NATO peacekeepers in the restive province. Serbian officials estimate that about 200,000 Serbs have left their homes over the past seven years and settled in Serbia proper and throughout the Europe.
Propensity for violence
The UN and NATO see the ANA as a loosely organized terrorist group comprised of people who have shown in the past their propensity for brutal violence that does not have the backing of the majority of local people. Serbian and Kosovo media speculate that the ANA now has over 12,000 members, including intellectuals, students, farmers and former fighters all frustrated with provincial "leadership's soft approach regarding independence talks." The group grew out of the insurgent Macedonian ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA), whose former commanders are now members of the Macedonian parliament, and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA,) whose commanders are now ruling Kosovo. Neither Kosovo nor Macedonian ethnic Albanian leaders openly support the ANA's goals and have distanced themselves from the groups. The ANA, formed after the 2001 peace framework in Macedonia, calls for the unification of ethnic Albanian areas of the Western Balkans, including the western part of Macedonia and southern Serbia, and currently operates in Kosovo and Macedonia.
Only the Serbian Defense Ministry responded to the ANA's claims, saying that the Serbian Army would respond "at the speed of lightning" to any attempts of violence in the country's south. The NLA, whose political leaders have been damned as traitors by the ANA, launched a rebellion against Macedonian forces in January 2001, demanding greater rights for the republic's 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority. But the group, who controlled a swathe of territory along Macedonia's northern and western borders with Kosovo and Albania, laid down its weapons, gave up secession and signed a peace agreement with the Macedonian government. After the deal was inked, NATO in August 2001 sent in some 3,500 troops to conduct operation "Essential Harvest," with the goal of disarming the NLA and destroying its weapons. During the 30-day mission, NATO troops, with logistical support from Macedonian forces, confiscated more than 3,800 rifles, mortars, howitzers and a tank from ethnic Albanian rebels.
However, the signing of the peace agreement did not satisfy some radical ethnic Albanians, who continued with a small-scale armed rebellion. Since late 2001, the ANA has claimed responsibility for at least a dozen attacks on government infrastructure, including courts, the transportation network and former interior minister Ljube Boskoski, who is currently on trial for war crimes against Albanians committed in 2001. The clashes between Macedonian security forces and the ANA have intensified since August, when ethnic Albanians attacked a police station and police patrols near the border with Kosovo, the stronghold of Albanian guerrillas during the 2001 conflict. Then in early November, Macedonian security forces launched operation "Mountain Storm," clashing with ANA militants, though Macedonian officials said that the operation was carried out against alleged armed Albanian criminals, not insurgents.
After the operation, a until now unknown Kosovo-based "Political Advisory Body of the Kosovo Liberation Army" issued a statement taking responsibility for the shootout, claiming that its members were forced to "protect endangered Albanian nationals in the Serbia-Macedonia region." Police said eight gunmen were killed and 12 others arrested, while an impressive amount of weapons were seized. KFOR, NATO's 16,000-strong force in Kosovo, has increased its troop level on the Kosovo side of the border since the start of the Macedonian operation. However, ethnic Albanian Macedonian lawmaker Rafiz Aliti, former NLA commander and an official from the opposition Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) party, told parliament earlier this month that not only Macedonian security forces were involved in the clashes, but some paramilitary units as well. He said that villagers witnessed that some involved in operation "Mountain Storm" were speaking Serbian and had uniforms that some recognized as those worn by Tsar Lazar's Guard.
Insurgency inevitable
Whichever decision is made regarding Kosovo's status, whether the province is granted independence or not, the authorities will have difficulty preventing ethnic insurgency. In interviews with western media outlets, unnamed diplomats involved in the status process admit that some level of armed conflict is inevitable, but hope that KFOR will manage to control it. If independence is granted, there is a fear that Serbian paramilitary forces could intervene under the guise of protecting the Serb minority. On the other hand, Albanians will settle for nothing less then full independence, and their frustration will be taken out on the Serb minority and the international community if their demands are not met. Tsar Lazar's Guard has threatened to attack UN and NATO forces and buildings in Kosovo if the province is granted independence from Serbia. At the same time, the ANA has already claimed responsibility for several attacks against Macedonian government institutions since 2002 and attacks on UN and Serb enclaves in Kosovo, and anything short of independence will likely result in more attacks. On 21 November, commander of Tsar Lazar's Guard, Hadzi Andrej Milic, sent invitations to Serbian lawmakers to go to the war. He informed Serbian lawmakers that "members of the unit would gather on November 28th at Merdare, the administrative border crossing to Kosovo, to set up their headquarters in order to symbolically start the new war for the liberation of Kosovo."
[...]
Source: http://www.isaintel.com/site/index.p...d=105&Itemid=1
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