The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It's brewing again...

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Back to the Brink In the Balkans

At a most inopportune time, the Balkans are back. On Dec. 10, the U.S.-E.U.-Russian negotiating team tasked with getting the Serbs and Albanians to agree on Kosovo's future status will report to the United Nations that it has failed. A few weeks later Kosovo's government will proclaim that Kosovo is an independent nation -- a long overdue event. The United States and most of the European Union (led by Britain, France and Germany) will recognize Kosovo quickly. Russia and its allies will not. Kosovo's eight-year run as the biggest-ever U.N. project will end with great tension and a threat of violence that could spread to Bosnia. Because security in Kosovo is NATO's responsibility, there is an urgent need to beef up the NATO presence before this diplomatic train wreck. Just the thought of sending additional American troops into the region must horrify the Bush administration. Yet its hesitations and neglect helped create this dilemma -- which Russia has exploited.

There is more bad news, virtually unnoticed, from nearby Bosnia. Exactly 12 years after the Dayton peace agreement ended the war in Bosnia, Serb politicians, egged on by Moscow and Belgrade, are threatening that if Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia, then the Serb portion of Bosnia will declare its independence. Such unilateral secession, strictly forbidden under Dayton, would endanger the more than 150,000 Muslims who have returned there. Recent American diplomacy led by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns and special envoy Frank Wisner, working closely with E.U. negotiator Wolfgang Ischinger, has largely succeeded in persuading most of our European allies to recognize Kosovo rapidly. But NATO has not yet faced the need to reinforce its presence in Kosovo. Nor has serious transatlantic discussion begun on Bosnia, even though Charles English, the American ambassador in Sarajevo, and Raffi Gregorian, the deputy high representative in Bosnia, have warned of the danger. "Bosnia's very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks," Gregorian told Congress this month. Virtually no one paid any attention.

The icing on the cake? Russia has threatened to link the Kosovo issue to the claims of two rebellious areas of far-away Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These issues had seemed largely resolved in the late 1990s. For such extensive backsliding to occur took a poisonous combination of bad American decisions, European neglect and Russian aggressiveness. When Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in September 2000 and a reformist government took over, the road seemed open to a reasonably rapid resolution of Kosovo's final status. But the new Bush team hated anything it had inherited from Bill Clinton -- even (perhaps especially) his greatest successes -- and made no effort to advance policy in Kosovo until 2005 and ignored Bosnia. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld even sought to pull American troops out of the NATO command in Kosovo, which Secretary of State Colin Powell prevented. (However, the State Department did not prevent Rumsfeld from prematurely turning the NATO command in Bosnia over to a weak E.U. Force, a terrible mistake.)

By the time meaningful diplomatic efforts started in 2006, the reformist prime minister in Belgrade had been assassinated by ultranationalists. And Vladimir Putin decided to reenter the Balkans with a dramatic policy shift: No longer would Russia cooperate with Washington and Brussels in the search for a peaceful compromise, as it had in 1995 when Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin sat on the hillside at Hyde Park and reached a historic agreement to put Russian troops under NATO command. Today, Putin seeks to reassert Russia's role as a regional hegemon. He is not trying to start another Cold War, but he craves international respect, and the Balkans, neglected by a Bush administration retreating from its European security responsibilities, are a tempting target.

Putin was hardly quiet about this; I watched him bluntly warn German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and delegates to the Munich security conference in February that Russia would not agree to any Kosovo settlement that Belgrade opposed. There was a vague feeling in Washington and Brussels that Putin was bluffing -- and no real planning in case Putin meant it. Not only did he mean it, Putin upped the ante by extending his reach into the Serb portion of Bosnia. Using some of his petrodollars, Putin turned its mildly pro-Western leader, Milorad Dodik, into a nasty nationalist who began threatening secession. The vaunted Atlantic alliance has yet to address this problem at a serious policy level-- even though, as Gregorian warned, it could explode soon after Kosovo declares independence. The window of opportunity for a soft landing in Kosovo closed in 2004. Still, Bush should make one last, personal effort with Putin. His efforts must be backed by temporary additional troop deployments in the region. It is not too late to prevent violence, but it will take American-led action and time is running out.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...112301237.html

In related news:

Kosovo: Armed for independence

With both outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units armed and patrolling the borders in Kosovo and Macedonia ahead of the official end of internationally mediated talks on Kosovo's status on 10 December, renewed conflict seems inevitable. Frustrated with the stalemate over the status of Serbia's province of Kosovo, outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units have begun patrolling the area "defending borders" - not only in Kosovo, but in Macedonia as well, confirming fears of a renewal of armed conflict. With the latest round of negotiations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia having failed and independence prolonged due never-ending disputes among western countries and Russia, it seems that Kosovo and Macedonian war veterans view another armed conflict as the best and perhaps only solution. In mid-October, the outlawed Albanian National Army (ANA) began openly patrolling towns in northern Kosovo on the Serbia border, establishing checkpoints on Kosovo's important highways, inspecting passing vehicles. They claim that patrolling the provincial towns and roads represent a preventive measure to thwart a potential Serb incursion into the area.

Meanwhile, Kosovo Serb minority representatives say that the ANA is planning attacks on their enclaves in the province. The Serb National Council (SNV) of Northern Kosovo said it had information that the ANA was planning an attack on the Serb part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica. A quick reaction to these claims came from the recently founded "Tsar Lazar's Guard," a group that also, according to Kosovo media, has organized patrols in Serbia, near the Kosovo border. Media quoted local residents as saying that they had seen groups of uniformed and armed men in the area. In May, the Movement of Veterans of Serbia (PVS) - a minor extremist party with a single seat in the Serbian parliament - organized the Tsar Lazar's Guard paramilitary unit, comprised of war veterans from across Serbia who fought in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s. The unit is said to have 5,000 troops. Symbolically, the group was named after a Serbian noble who fought and died at the Battle of Kosovo in1389. Dozens of veterans pledged their allegiance to the unit in the Serbian city of Krusevac, promising to fight to the death to prevent Kosovo from being handed over to ethnic Albanians.

The international community has listed both the ANA and Tsar Lazar's Guard as terrorist groups. So far, there have been no reports that two units have clashed. However, they blame each other for provocations in the form of launching border patrols. The ANA says it is certain that Serbia will invade Kosovo again, and this time they will be prepared, while Tsar Lazar's Guard" is calling for protection of the Serbian minority there. Kosovo has been under UN administration since 1999, following a NATO bombing campaign that drove out Serb forces accused of ethnic cleansing. Several rounds of UN-sponsored talks in Vienna since February 2006 achieved little result, with the Serbian and Kosovo delegations refusing to budge from their original positions. Some 100,000 Serbs live in separate areas guarded by NATO peacekeepers in the restive province. Serbian officials estimate that about 200,000 Serbs have left their homes over the past seven years and settled in Serbia proper and throughout the Europe.

Propensity for violence

The UN and NATO see the ANA as a loosely organized terrorist group comprised of people who have shown in the past their propensity for brutal violence that does not have the backing of the majority of local people. Serbian and Kosovo media speculate that the ANA now has over 12,000 members, including intellectuals, students, farmers and former fighters all frustrated with provincial "leadership's soft approach regarding independence talks." The group grew out of the insurgent Macedonian ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA), whose former commanders are now members of the Macedonian parliament, and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA,) whose commanders are now ruling Kosovo. Neither Kosovo nor Macedonian ethnic Albanian leaders openly support the ANA's goals and have distanced themselves from the groups. The ANA, formed after the 2001 peace framework in Macedonia, calls for the unification of ethnic Albanian areas of the Western Balkans, including the western part of Macedonia and southern Serbia, and currently operates in Kosovo and Macedonia.

Only the Serbian Defense Ministry responded to the ANA's claims, saying that the Serbian Army would respond "at the speed of lightning" to any attempts of violence in the country's south. The NLA, whose political leaders have been damned as traitors by the ANA, launched a rebellion against Macedonian forces in January 2001, demanding greater rights for the republic's 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority. But the group, who controlled a swathe of territory along Macedonia's northern and western borders with Kosovo and Albania, laid down its weapons, gave up secession and signed a peace agreement with the Macedonian government. After the deal was inked, NATO in August 2001 sent in some 3,500 troops to conduct operation "Essential Harvest," with the goal of disarming the NLA and destroying its weapons. During the 30-day mission, NATO troops, with logistical support from Macedonian forces, confiscated more than 3,800 rifles, mortars, howitzers and a tank from ethnic Albanian rebels.

However, the signing of the peace agreement did not satisfy some radical ethnic Albanians, who continued with a small-scale armed rebellion. Since late 2001, the ANA has claimed responsibility for at least a dozen attacks on government infrastructure, including courts, the transportation network and former interior minister Ljube Boskoski, who is currently on trial for war crimes against Albanians committed in 2001. The clashes between Macedonian security forces and the ANA have intensified since August, when ethnic Albanians attacked a police station and police patrols near the border with Kosovo, the stronghold of Albanian guerrillas during the 2001 conflict. Then in early November, Macedonian security forces launched operation "Mountain Storm," clashing with ANA militants, though Macedonian officials said that the operation was carried out against alleged armed Albanian criminals, not insurgents.

After the operation, a until now unknown Kosovo-based "Political Advisory Body of the Kosovo Liberation Army" issued a statement taking responsibility for the shootout, claiming that its members were forced to "protect endangered Albanian nationals in the Serbia-Macedonia region." Police said eight gunmen were killed and 12 others arrested, while an impressive amount of weapons were seized. KFOR, NATO's 16,000-strong force in Kosovo, has increased its troop level on the Kosovo side of the border since the start of the Macedonian operation. However, ethnic Albanian Macedonian lawmaker Rafiz Aliti, former NLA commander and an official from the opposition Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) party, told parliament earlier this month that not only Macedonian security forces were involved in the clashes, but some paramilitary units as well. He said that villagers witnessed that some involved in operation "Mountain Storm" were speaking Serbian and had uniforms that some recognized as those worn by Tsar Lazar's Guard.

Insurgency inevitable

Whichever decision is made regarding Kosovo's status, whether the province is granted independence or not, the authorities will have difficulty preventing ethnic insurgency. In interviews with western media outlets, unnamed diplomats involved in the status process admit that some level of armed conflict is inevitable, but hope that KFOR will manage to control it. If independence is granted, there is a fear that Serbian paramilitary forces could intervene under the guise of protecting the Serb minority. On the other hand, Albanians will settle for nothing less then full independence, and their frustration will be taken out on the Serb minority and the international community if their demands are not met. Tsar Lazar's Guard has threatened to attack UN and NATO forces and buildings in Kosovo if the province is granted independence from Serbia. At the same time, the ANA has already claimed responsibility for several attacks against Macedonian government institutions since 2002 and attacks on UN and Serb enclaves in Kosovo, and anything short of independence will likely result in more attacks. On 21 November, commander of Tsar Lazar's Guard, Hadzi Andrej Milic, sent invitations to Serbian lawmakers to go to the war. He informed Serbian lawmakers that "members of the unit would gather on November 28th at Merdare, the administrative border crossing to Kosovo, to set up their headquarters in order to symbolically start the new war for the liberation of Kosovo."

[...]

Source: http://www.isaintel.com/site/index.p...d=105&Itemid=1

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Statements about military threat from Russia are political - Ivanov

Accusations that Russia is aggressive in the international arena are merely political, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said. "I would not speak about any military threat [coming from Russia]. I think such accusations are simply used for political ends," Ivanov said in an interview with Channel One Russia. Russia "is accused of aggressiveness [and at the same time] it is proposed that Russia should agree that the third positioning district of the strategic anti-missile defense system is not a threat to it," he said. "We say: where is Iran, where is North Korea, and where are we. If you feel any missile threat, lets assess such threats together. We are ready," Ivanov said. Ivanov also spoke about the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treat, saying that European partners often state that the CFE Treaty is "a cornerstone of international security in the European continent." "If this is a cornerstone, then why we must carry this stone for others?" Ivanov said, adding that Russia does not wish to withdraw from the treaty, it only introduced moratorium on it. Russia ratified the treaty, while other partners have not "and are obviously reluctant to do so," Ivanov said.

Source: http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/...issue=11916963

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Serbia warns it will never accept "illegal and rogue" Kosovo before final talks round

Serbia's prime minister said Sunday the country will never recognize an "illegal and rogue" independent Kosovo, while the province's leader vowed to declare independence. The hard-line positions suggest neither side is ready to compromise during a final round of talks on the future of the province. Serb and Albanian delegations are to meet Monday in Baden, Austria, for a three-day attempt at narrowing differences. The negotiations so far have produced no agreement. Mediators from the United States, the EU and Russia are to report to the U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by Dec. 10 about the process. In recent meetings, leaders of the ethnic Albanian majority in Kosovo have rejected even considering anything short of independence, while Serbia refuses to let go of its separatist region. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said Serbia will never recognize an independent Kosovo, calling it "an illegal and rogue creation."

"Serbia will show that unilateral independence means absolutely nothing," he said. Kosovo's outgoing Prime Minister, Agim Ceku, told reporters the conclusion of the talks would lead to the province's independence, which he said should be declared before the end of the year. "This marks the end to a long and difficult process that will undoubtedly result with Kosovo's independence," Ceku said before leaving for Austria. "Big decisions await us and we need to be ready to make them."

"I can guarantee you that nobody can impose upon us anything less than independence," Ceku said.

The United States and its allies have backed independence for Kosovo, suggesting they might recognize the region as an independent nation if talks with Serbia fail altogether. Russia, however, has backed Serbia in its efforts to keep Kosovo. Kostunica said "a recognition by America or any other country cannot change anything and turn an illegal act into a normal and regular thing." Kosovo formally is part of Serbia, although Belgrade has had no authority over the region since 1999, when a NATO bombing forced Serbia to end a crackdown against the Kosovo separatists and pull its troops out. The province has been run by the United Nations and NATO since June 1999. President Boris Tadic said Belgrade believes that a compromise is possible, and will again present a proposal for what he termed "essential autonomy" for Kosovo. "We are going there fully convinced that we are right, and we will defend our position very firmly and carefully," he said.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...sovo-Talks.php International Herald Tribune

PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE The Dangers of Kosovo

As negotiations go nowhere fast, an independent Kosovo is widely being accepted as inevitable. But the consequences will be far-reaching, not just for the Balkans, but for the EU, the UN and relations between the West and Russia. If the path to hell is paved with good intentions, then the way to political irrelevance may well be paved with pointless negotiations that everyone knows will fail. That, at least, seems to be the lesson of the ongoing "final status" negotiations on the future of Kosovo. On the one hand, the international troika, made up of mediators from the United States, Russia and the European Union, remain outwardly committed to helping Kosovo and Serbia find a solution to their ongoing stalemate. On the other hand, with the talks set to end on December 10, nobody really believes that success is possible anymore. And posturing for what comes next has already begun.

"There is an overall atmosphere of resignation that troika-like negotiation processes are no longer going to work," Alex Anderson, Kosovo project director for the International Crisis Group, told SPIEGEL ONLINE. "These talks have largely been a process to enable the European Union to adapt to the coming Kosovo situation." Few have any illusions about what that situation might look like. Kosovo has remained nominally part of Serbia since the war ended in 1999, but the small, ethnic-Albanian province has long made it clear it will be happy with nothing short of independence. Both the EU and the US have been supportive of that ultimate goal. Serbia, though, refuses to give up control of Kosovo and has consistently been backed by Russia. Kosovo's potential United Nations path to independence -- as outlined by special envoy Martti Ahtisaari this spring -- has been blocked by Russia's Security Council veto.

Absolutely No Alternatives

Now, with former rebel leader Hasham Thaci winning elections in Kosovo last Saturday, it is no longer a question of whether Kosovo will declare unilateral independence. It has become a question of when. "Our vision and our stance are very clear," said Kosovo's President Fatmir Sejdiu following the most recent meeting of the troika on Tuesday. "It's the independence of Kosovo and its recognition. There are absolutely no alternatives." So what happens next? Europe, at the moment, is frantically looking for an answer to that question.

The West has urged Thaci not to declare independence immediately following the end of talks on Dec. 10 -- and he appears to be willing to listen. Anderson, from the International Crisis Group, thinks that Thaci will only act in concert with Washington and Brussels. But Europe itself is divided on the issue. While Brussels has supported an independent Kosovo and is even helping the province build up state-like institutions, many EU members that have their own minorities, like Cyprus and Romania, are reluctant to recognize a separatist state. Still, they may not have much time to figure it out. Once the talks fail, "the Albanians in Kosovo will declare independence within a month," Richard Holbrooke, the former US envoy who brokered the Dayton Peace Accords ending the war in Bosnia, told German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung on Wednesday. "It is clear that Russia won't recognize them. There is great danger that violence will result."

[...]

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...518781,00.html

It's brewing again...

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Back to the Brink In the Balkans

At a most inopportune time, the Balkans are back. On Dec. 10, the U.S.-E.U.-Russian negotiating team tasked with getting the Serbs and Albanians to agree on Kosovo's future status will report to the United Nations that it has failed. A few weeks later Kosovo's government will proclaim that Kosovo is an independent nation -- a long overdue event. The United States and most of the European Union (led by Britain, France and Germany) will recognize Kosovo quickly. Russia and its allies will not. Kosovo's eight-year run as the biggest-ever U.N. project will end with great tension and a threat of violence that could spread to Bosnia. Because security in Kosovo is NATO's responsibility, there is an urgent need to beef up the NATO presence before this diplomatic train wreck. Just the thought of sending additional American troops into the region must horrify the Bush administration. Yet its hesitations and neglect helped create this dilemma -- which Russia has exploited.

There is more bad news, virtually unnoticed, from nearby Bosnia. Exactly 12 years after the Dayton peace agreement ended the war in Bosnia, Serb politicians, egged on by Moscow and Belgrade, are threatening that if Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia, then the Serb portion of Bosnia will declare its independence. Such unilateral secession, strictly forbidden under Dayton, would endanger the more than 150,000 Muslims who have returned there. Recent American diplomacy led by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns and special envoy Frank Wisner, working closely with E.U. negotiator Wolfgang Ischinger, has largely succeeded in persuading most of our European allies to recognize Kosovo rapidly. But NATO has not yet faced the need to reinforce its presence in Kosovo. Nor has serious transatlantic discussion begun on Bosnia, even though Charles English, the American ambassador in Sarajevo, and Raffi Gregorian, the deputy high representative in Bosnia, have warned of the danger. "Bosnia's very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks," Gregorian told Congress this month. Virtually no one paid any attention.

The icing on the cake? Russia has threatened to link the Kosovo issue to the claims of two rebellious areas of far-away Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These issues had seemed largely resolved in the late 1990s. For such extensive backsliding to occur took a poisonous combination of bad American decisions, European neglect and Russian aggressiveness. When Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in September 2000 and a reformist government took over, the road seemed open to a reasonably rapid resolution of Kosovo's final status. But the new Bush team hated anything it had inherited from Bill Clinton -- even (perhaps especially) his greatest successes -- and made no effort to advance policy in Kosovo until 2005 and ignored Bosnia. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld even sought to pull American troops out of the NATO command in Kosovo, which Secretary of State Colin Powell prevented. (However, the State Department did not prevent Rumsfeld from prematurely turning the NATO command in Bosnia over to a weak E.U. Force, a terrible mistake.)

By the time meaningful diplomatic efforts started in 2006, the reformist prime minister in Belgrade had been assassinated by ultranationalists. And Vladimir Putin decided to reenter the Balkans with a dramatic policy shift: No longer would Russia cooperate with Washington and Brussels in the search for a peaceful compromise, as it had in 1995 when Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin sat on the hillside at Hyde Park and reached a historic agreement to put Russian troops under NATO command. Today, Putin seeks to reassert Russia's role as a regional hegemon. He is not trying to start another Cold War, but he craves international respect, and the Balkans, neglected by a Bush administration retreating from its European security responsibilities, are a tempting target.

Putin was hardly quiet about this; I watched him bluntly warn German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and delegates to the Munich security conference in February that Russia would not agree to any Kosovo settlement that Belgrade opposed. There was a vague feeling in Washington and Brussels that Putin was bluffing -- and no real planning in case Putin meant it. Not only did he mean it, Putin upped the ante by extending his reach into the Serb portion of Bosnia. Using some of his petrodollars, Putin turned its mildly pro-Western leader, Milorad Dodik, into a nasty nationalist who began threatening secession. The vaunted Atlantic alliance has yet to address this problem at a serious policy level-- even though, as Gregorian warned, it could explode soon after Kosovo declares independence. The window of opportunity for a soft landing in Kosovo closed in 2004. Still, Bush should make one last, personal effort with Putin. His efforts must be backed by temporary additional troop deployments in the region. It is not too late to prevent violence, but it will take American-led action and time is running out.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...112301237.html

In related news:

Kosovo: Armed for independence

With both outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units armed and patrolling the borders in Kosovo and Macedonia ahead of the official end of internationally mediated talks on Kosovo's status on 10 December, renewed conflict seems inevitable. Frustrated with the stalemate over the status of Serbia's province of Kosovo, outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units have begun patrolling the area "defending borders" - not only in Kosovo, but in Macedonia as well, confirming fears of a renewal of armed conflict. With the latest round of negotiations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia having failed and independence prolonged due never-ending disputes among western countries and Russia, it seems that Kosovo and Macedonian war veterans view another armed conflict as the best and perhaps only solution. In mid-October, the outlawed Albanian National Army (ANA) began openly patrolling towns in northern Kosovo on the Serbia border, establishing checkpoints on Kosovo's important highways, inspecting passing vehicles. They claim that patrolling the provincial towns and roads represent a preventive measure to thwart a potential Serb incursion into the area.

Meanwhile, Kosovo Serb minority representatives say that the ANA is planning attacks on their enclaves in the province. The Serb National Council (SNV) of Northern Kosovo said it had information that the ANA was planning an attack on the Serb part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica. A quick reaction to these claims came from the recently founded "Tsar Lazar's Guard," a group that also, according to Kosovo media, has organized patrols in Serbia, near the Kosovo border. Media quoted local residents as saying that they had seen groups of uniformed and armed men in the area. In May, the Movement of Veterans of Serbia (PVS) - a minor extremist party with a single seat in the Serbian parliament - organized the Tsar Lazar's Guard paramilitary unit, comprised of war veterans from across Serbia who fought in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s. The unit is said to have 5,000 troops. Symbolically, the group was named after a Serbian noble who fought and died at the Battle of Kosovo in1389. Dozens of veterans pledged their allegiance to the unit in the Serbian city of Krusevac, promising to fight to the death to prevent Kosovo from being handed over to ethnic Albanians.

[...]

Source: http://www.isaintel.com/site/index.p...d=105&Itemid=1

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It is now quite evident that Moscow, awash in oil money, is being ruled by a new class of people - the wealthy elite. This new class of rulers in Russia, which in my opinion reflect more-or-less the character of the financial elite in the West, will prove to be much more difficult to handle than the ideologically driven Soviet bureaucracy of yesteryear. In short: The Russian Federation has in abundance what the rest of the world disparately needs - natural resources. Some western analysts are claiming that the current economic boom in Russia is solely based on the rising prices of oil and is, as a result, hollow. What these analysts are not taking into consideration, however, is the fact that Russia's wealthy with the incitement of official Moscow are currently embarked on a massive buying spree worldwide. From power plants to telecommunication networks, from heavy industry to the entertainment sector, wealthy Russians are putting large sums of their newly acquired wealth in strategic investments. There will come a time when Moscow will somehow be linked to a good share of the world's most vital economic sectors. It is no wonder that the financial/political elite in the West has begun to panic.

Armenian

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Millionaire Fair in Moscow strikes visitors' imagination with luxury

Russian model featuring $2.5 worth of Buggati car and jewlery

Millionaire Fair, which opened in Moscow on Saturday, will close on Wednesday today. Thousands of so-called “new Russians” inundated numerous stands selling all kinds of luxurious goods that wealthy people need in their everyday lives: gold-plated coffee pots, marble angels, xxxel-encrusted pens, Lamborghinis, yachts and helicopters. There was even a live tiger on a lead near the stand filled with gold suitcases. ”Russia has become one of the best markets for us, which is a lot more stable than the US market, - Christina Bluethner, the heiress of the renowned German piano-maker said. – We have sold over 30 pianos in Russia since 2003 for $95,000 each.”

”Moscow is like paradise to me. Moscow and Shanghai – these are the only two cities in the world where one can amass huge fortunes,” interior designer Alexander Vasiliev said. The man acknowledged that he was making a lot more money in Moscow than in Paris. According to the recent research conducted by Cap Gemini and Merrill Lynch, there are 88,000 dollar-millionaires living in present-day Russia. On the other hand, the average monthly salary in Russia does not exceed $200. Wealthy Russians are especially conspicuous in Moscow where they acquire luxurious goods apparently trying to catch up with the time that they lost during the Soviet era.

The number of millionaires living in Russia pales in comparison with the USA, which counts 2.5 millionaires, Germany with 760,000 and Great Britain with 418,000 millionaires. Russia, however, ranks second after the USA on the number of billionaires. The Millionaire Fair was held for the first time in Amsterdam three years ago. It has won the reputation of one of the most respectable exhibitions devoted to the world of luxury. Organizers of the fair consider Russia to be a very perspective market for luxurious goods and therefore chose Moscow as a hosting city of the show in 2005. Over 200 prestigious companies and brands took place at the Millionaire Fair in Moscow, including Bvlgari, Bentley, BMW, Cartier, Fairline, Jaguar, Remy Martin, Mercedes, Mont Blanc, Porsche, Riva, Rolex, Sony, Starline, Wolford and many others.

The organizers provided beautiful girls to serve strawberries on large platters, artists on stilts to scatter rose petals on visitors' heads, ladies with high coiffures to walk Dalmatians and millionaire-looking gentlemen to wear derbies and lace-up shoes. The most expensive exhibit at the fair was an exclusive helicopter for $1.5 million. There are only three of such helicopters in Russia now. There was a strict dress code for visitors to enter the Millionaire Fair: men were supposed to wear tuxedos, whereas women had to be dressed up in beautiful evening dresses. Some visitors did not feel well because of what they could see at the show: one of the female visitors was hospitalized with “luxury shock.” Another visitor, however, purchased an island during the weekend. Next year the Millionaire Fair will take place in Shanghai, Newsru wrote.

Source: http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/90/...llionaire.html

The Rich in Russia

There are very few places in the world like this place. The most modest house costs more than $10,000,000. Parked on the quaint, beautifully paved roads are the latest models of Toyota, Chrysler, and Mercedes-- all polished and shining just as in a car salon. Streets are thronged with attractive young women dressed in furs that would make the most fashionable Parisian green with envy. Everything is separated from the rest of the civilization by a young pine tree forest. In the suburbs of Moscow, this oasis of luxury seems more out of place than anywhere else. Russia has not seen such splendor since the time of czars. But, even then, the big money was restricted exclusively to the royal family and the upper echelons of aristocracy, which comprised just a fraction of the country's large population.

After the communist revolution replaced blue-blooded aristocracy with the red mob, hardly anything had changed. Although workers and farmers were herded into cheap blocks of flats with one lavatory for the entire floor and no running water, the communist party activists built palatial dachas in the suburbs of Moscow, St. Petersburg and other fashionable places. Leonid Brezhnev, who presided over the country in the 1960s and 1970s, not only had several villas scattered across the Soviet Union, but he owned a forest where he could hunt for bears and deer, undisturbed. In 1991 the Soviet Union was dissolved and, as with the royal family in 1917, communists were mercilessly thrown from the podium. A new group of immensely rich people was born: when a highly-centralized state fell apart like a house of cards and all nation-owned companies were up for grabs, those who knew how to pull strings accumulated vast fortunes in months, if not weeks.

At first they would hide their wealth from their countrymen by keeping money in Swiss banks or living on one of the Mediterranean islands. But a decade after the last monument of Stalin disappeared from Moscow's numerous squares, the rich decided it was high time they revealed themselves. They changed cheap cherry and green suits for top European brands. Gold chains, rings, necklaces and earrings were bought in previously unheard of quantities; later, they adorned trophy wives of some new oil tycoon. It was said that all the gold mines in South Africa– the world's biggest gold exporter– could work fast enough to satisfy the demandd of the Russian billionaires. Capitalist Russia has one of the most stratified societies in the world. Although the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeds $1.7 trillion, which gives Russia the 9th position in the world, only a fraction of this sum goes to ordinary citizens. While the number of millionaires grows faster in Russia than anywhere else in the world-- there were 88,000 of them in 2005 and this number increases every year by about 15 percent-- for the majority of Russians, very little or nothing has really changed since 1991.

Except for Moscow, which boasts first place in Europe's most expensive capitals, people in the provinces lead the same life as their fathers and grandfathers did when communism was the country's national religion. Communal, post-Soviet blocks of flats are packed full with people who can't afford their own place; it is not uncommon to find two families living in one flat with a shared bathroom and kitchen. The luxury village, which has now acquired the status of a city, was designed in 2002 and finished within the first months of 2007. The fears that the developer might have problems getting clients in a country where the average citizen earns less than $6,000 a year proved groundless. The demand was so huge that, as the first residents began to move in, a few miles away diggers and rollers were paving the way for another village. According to the developer, the exclusive apartments will be ready next year.

It is hard to please people for whom money is not a problem. Apart from grandiose palaces and villas, often designed by some of the world's most famous architects, the village hosts a number of stores with popular brands such as Chrysler, Coco Channel and Rolex-- these are the modest ones. Women can flick through the latest models of furs, dresses, shoes and xxxelry long before fashionistas can admire them in Paris or Milan. Anything below a Mercedes, with all the extra gadgets, would be considered passé; car companies from around the world have their most luxurious products shipped to Moscow and its suburbs. Following the fashion, the village residents splurge on yachts and airplanes, completely staffed and fully equipped.

Stalin would turn in his grave if he saw this capitalist orgy at the very doorstep of Moscow. More than eight decades of communism have made Russians willing to show off the countless amounts of money they have earned fast, and that they can spend even faster. It is not a problem to say “easy come, easy go,” when the source never dries up. But, it also creates antagonism between the extremely rich and the extremely poor in a society that has a long history of civil war. Even the highest fences and the thickest forests may not protect the luxury village and its residents, if it remains the oasis of comfort in a desert of dire poverty.

Source: http://www.thesop.org/index.php?id=8507

Russia diary: politics of envy in Moscow

DAY ONE

A warning for anyone travelling to Moscow for the first time. Don't expect low East European prices, and don't, as I have foolishly done, leave it till the day before to book a hotel room. Thanks to Russia's oil-fired business boom, nearly every hotel in town is constantly full and, at the last-minute, nowhere seems to have anything for less than £300 a night. This isn't because we hacks are unwilling to doss it in some budget joint, by the way. Having stayed at hotels in places like Iraq, Chad, and er, Scratchwood Services on the M1, my idea of business-standard accommodation is pretty flexible.

It's just that in Moscow, prices are now so high that there seems to be little or no budget accommodation anywhere. You might have thought that the Soviet-era Hotel Izmaylovo, scarcely a boutique hangout with its 8,000 beds, might have something cheap, but even theirs start at £200. And yes, it's full again. Eventually I find a room for much less. But my hunt made me realise that Moscow is just about the only city I've been to in recent years that's more expensive than London. Yet here in Russia, living standards are still a lot lower, unless you happen to be a Chelsea FC-owning oligarch. It just shows how Russia, having once been the land where all were equal (theoretically), now has one of the biggest gaps between its haves and have-nots. The have-nots, admittedly, have not done badly either in recent years: average living standards have shot up thanks to Russia's new status as an oil and gas giant, boosting President Vladimir Putin's popularity ratings to their current 70 per cent.

Yet things have not been helped by the desire of Russia's "haves" to be most conspicuous consumers in the world. This week, for example, Moscow is enthusiastically hosting a millionaires' gift exhibition, at which one can buy such household essentials as coffee tables made from ivory. Not your bog-standard elephant ivory, mind, but mammoth tusk ivory. Yes, actually made from extinct mammoths. With this kind of nouveau richeness around, it's no surprise that the politics of envy are still as potent a force in Russia as when the proletariat kicked out the Czars. Mr Putin is well aware of this, and has played on it skilfully when attacking the country's oligarchs who have funded pro-Western groups. The average Russian, he knows, cares little about whether rich guys fund human rights causes in their spare time. But tell the public that someone is a fat cat and you press all the right buttons.

DAY TWO

We visit the headquarters of the Nashi, a pro-Putin youth group set up three years ago to promote "positive role models" for young Russians. They are rather like a modern version of the old Soviet-era Konsomol youth groups, only they preach a patriotic "Russia first" line rather than the old notion of the international socialist brethren. Critics say, though, that other parts of their programme are more reminiscent of the Hitler Youth than the Konsomol. Among the leaflets in their HQ, for example, is one urging them to sign up for military service, and another encouraging them to marry early and raise at least three children. Otherwise, it warns, Russians will become extinct like the woolly mammoth (and presumably end up having their teeth turned into oligarch's tables). The Nashi's commissar - another touch from the old days - is Nikita Borovikov, a friendly, intelligent chap who shows little obvious resemblance to a Nazi brownshirt. Not surprisingly, he says the Nashi are misunderstood in the West. Yes, they may go on rallies heckling oligarch-funded pro-Western groups, yes, they go on military training, and yes, they support President Putin. But their main activities, he says, are routine stuff like camping and hiking, helping the elderly, and training kids to do well at college and in business.

[...]

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...wmoscow425.xml

[Virgil]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Putin says US behind poll boycott

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the United States of pushing Western observers into boycotting Russian elections.

Mr Putin said the goal was to discredit the parliamentary election to be held on 2 December.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has categorically rejected the allegations.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has expressed concern at the treatment of the opposition in Russia.

'Nonsense'

The OSCE's election monitoring unit announced earlier this month that it would not attend Russia's election, saying Moscow had refused to provide visas to its staff.

The OSCE later said it would send a delegation of European MPs - rather than a full OSCE team - to monitor the vote.

Mr Putin said the boycott decision "was taken on the recommendation of the American state department".

"The aim is to discredit the elections, but they won't achieve their goal," he said.

"We will certainly take this into account with our bilateral ties with this state," he added, referring to the US.

But a spokeswoman for the OSCE in Warsaw, Urdur Gunnarsdottir, called Mr Putin's allegations "nonsense".

"The decision was not made in consultation with any government. It was made on operational, not political grounds," Ms Gunnarsdottir told the BBC.

"Our decision did not have the aim to influence the election."

The OSCE unites 56 member countries from Europe, Central Asia, the US and Canada.

The organisation will be represented by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, which, together with the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly, is sending about 100 MPs from member countries to Russia to observe the 2 December parliamentary poll.

EU worries

The head of the European Union's executive arm, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, has expressed worries about a weekend crackdown by Russian police on protests by opponents of President Vladimir Putin.

"I was very concerned to see reports of police harassment and arrests of politicians and peaceful demonstrators in Russia in the last two days," Mr Barroso said in a statement.

"The right to free speech and assembly are basic fundamental human rights and I very much regret that the authorities found it necessary to take such heavy-handed action."

Police broke up an opposition rally on Sunday, arresting 150 people in St Petersburg, including opposition leader Boris Nemtsov - who was later freed.

Another opposition figure, former chess champion Garry Kasparov, was arrested at a rally in Moscow on Saturday.


Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...pe/7112904.stm

[Virgil]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Another opposition figure, former chess champion Garry Kasparov, was arrested at a rally in Moscow on Saturday.

Kasparov has to stick to playing chess.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Tensions Rise for Colombia and Venezuela

Venezuela and Colombia moved toward a diplomatic crisis on Sunday after an exchange of insults between President Hugo Chávez and his Colombian counterpart, Álvaro Uribe. The spat threatens thriving trade between the countries, which are governed by ideological opposites who had cultivated a surprisingly warm political relationship. Mr. Chávez said he was putting ties with Colombia in the “freezer,” after Mr. Uribe’s withdrawal of support last week for his mediating role with Colombian guerrillas. The Venezuelan president, speaking on television, described Mr. Uribe’s attitude as the equivalent of a “brutal spitting in the face,” and called him a “liar.” Mr. Uribe, the Bush administration’s top ally in South America, responded by accusing Mr. Chávez of legitimizing terrorists and advancing ambitions of “assembling an empire.” Tensions between the countries have been rising as Venezuela prepares for a Dec. 2 referendum on a proposal by Mr. Chávez for a sweeping revision to the Constitution that would abolish presidential term limits. Supporters of Mr. Uribe have similarly proposed legal changes that would allow him to run for a third term. Both leaders have presided over robustly growing economies in recent years, with Colombian companies in particular benefiting from rising exports of food and manufactured goods to Venezuela. But both could also use some distraction from domestic travails. Opinion polls released here this weekend show Mr. Chávez’s reform proposal trailing among likely voters. And Mr. Uribe has recently faced criticism over revelations of ties of some of his political supporters to drug-trafficking paramilitary death squads.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/26/wo...l?ref=americas

With his strong and persistent anti-US rhetoric, his political alliances with Cuba, Iran and Russia, and his gradual monopolization of Venezuela's economic assets, Hugo Chavez is fast becoming a serious obstacle in South America for policy makers in Washington DC. A major concern in Washington DC has also been the arming of the Venezuelan military by sophisticated Russian weaponry, and Chavez's concerted efforts at creating an international geopolitical union that is fully independent of Washington's influence.

Moscow's close relationship with Hugo Chavez is beginning to resemble that of the Soviet Union's strategic relationship with Cuba during the Cold War. With Castro slowly withering away in his old age, Chavez has been the one providing a new ideological push, a new energy, within South America. The biggest difference between Venezuela and Cuba, however, is that Venezuela is economically self-sufficient due to its vast oil reserves. As a result, Venezuela is not dependent on Moscow for handouts, which makes for an ideal relationship between the two strategic partners.

Obviously, policy makers in Washington DC have been looking for ways to remove the popularly elected leader in Caracas. There are serious concerns in Washington DC that Venezuela is fast becoming an anti-United States stronghold, and a Russian outpost, within the very backyard of the United States. As a result, Washington DC has tried very hard to overthrow the democratically elected Chavez. Washington DC has also been strengthening its relationship with Colombia and building up its military with the hopes of creating a balance of power in the region. Although the Middle East and Central Asia gets much of the media coverage, there is a real risk today that a major international war will break out inside South America, most probably between Washington backed Colombia and Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez resembles Vladimir Putin in many ways: Chavez has put Venezuela firmly on the geopolitical map; he has thwarted attempts at driving him out of power; he has driven trouble makers out of his country; he is gradually taking over control of the nation's assets out from the hands of foreign exploiters; he is feverishly modernizing and building up the Venezuelan armed forces; and, along with Putin and Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez has been one of the few loud voices against the global wrong doings of Washington DC.

Armenian

And related news that got my attention is this report about Israeli, American and British special forces operating in the jungles of Colombia under the pretext of fighting "drug lords" and guerilla fighters. As previously stated, US-backed Colombia will be the future center of anti-Venezuelan military operations. Nonetheless, just try to imagine what would happen if Venezuela decided one day to send military specialists to south Lebanon or Iraq under one pretext or another. Or, better yet, try to imagine the political crisis that would occur if Iran sent its specialists to Venezuela to help them fight "drug lords."

Armenian

Report: Israelis fighting guerillas in Colombia



Colombian paper quotes local defense minister as confirming ex Israeli officers helping government in battle against guerillas, drug lords, while guerrilla group FARC claims Israeli commandos also fighting them in jungles

Colombia's defense minister confirmed recently that ex Israeli military men were helping his government fight guerilla organizations, Colombia weekly Semana recently reported. Meanwhile, Colombian guerilla group FARC stated that Israeli commandos, along with American and British forces, were operating in the jungles against drug lords and guerilla fighters. While denying this report, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos did admit that a group of Israeli advisors was working alongside local defense officials in the last year.

According to Semana, "A group of former Israeli military officials is counseling the military's top brass on intelligence issues." The paper added that the Israelis were hired by the Colombian Defense Ministry in order to improve the army's intelligence gathering capabilities and the command and control structure within the military. Defense Minister Santos, said the Semana, was put in touch with the Israelis last year by former Israeli foreign minister Shlomo Ben Ami. Ben Ami's spokesman stated that Santos has been referred to the relevant authorities in Israel. The contract between the Israeli advisors and the Colombian Defense Ministry was signed in April this year, and sources in the country said that it stood at $10 million.

'Best in the world'

The Israeli group, reportedly made up of three senior generals, a lower ranking officer and three translators, is highly esteemed by the Colombians. "They are like psychoanalysts; they ask us the material questions and help us see all the problems we weren't aware of before," Deputy Defense Minister Sergio Jaramillo told the newspaper. "They are the best in the world," another high ranking officer stated.

The paper described the Israeli aides as "mercenaries," but stressed that the Israeli government was aware of their actions. In recent years, Israel has become Colombia's number one weapon supplier, with the arms mainly used to battle drug lords. These weapons include drones, light arms and ammunition, observation and communication systems and even special bombs capable of destroying coca fields. "Israel's methods of fighting terror have been duplicated in Colombia," a senior defense official said Thursday, adding that arms export to Colombia has increased significantly in recent years, totaling tens of millions of dollars.

Source: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...435949,00.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Woodrow Wilson’s arbitration award important for Russia

Armenian Historian And Diplomat Ara Papian

“Russia should understand that realization of Woodrow Wilson’s arbitration award is very important, since it meets all security demands in the South Caucasus. It’s high time to come to decision,” historian and diplomat Ara Papian said in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net. “The Russian power is divided in two groups. One wants close relationship with Turkey proceeding from personal profit, the other upholds security issues in the light of Turkish nationalism. Actually, if the international community understands that the time to recognize the arbitration award has come, it will be to interest of Russia, Armenia and even Iran,” he said. “Interest in the decision is being observed, since it could become an extra tool of pressure on Turkey. According to the Treaty of Sevres, military monitoring units should be deployed in Turkey and this could deprive the latter of the possibility to uncontrolledly build up arms,” he said.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=24188

No one cancelled Sevr Treaty on Armenia

After conclusion of the Sevr Treaty on August 10, 1920 borders with independent Armenia had to be set by a neutral mediator – the United States. In this view, representatives of UK, France and Italy appealed to U.S. President Woodrow Wilson for an arbitration award on the Armenian-Turkish border. Mr Wilson outlined Armenia’s territory of 110 square km,” Ara Papyan, orientalist, specialist in international law and Armenia’s former Ambassador to Canada told a news conference in Yerevan. “The arbitration award on the Armenian-Turkish border is an international agreement which is not subject to appeal and restriction of time. The big Parisian Four addressed a joint note to the U.S. President in order to determine Armenian and Turkish borders on the territory of Van, Bitlis, Erzrum and Trapezund,” Papyan said.

The fate of the arbitration award is not bound with the ratification of the Sevr treaty, according to him. “Westerman’s committee responsible for determination of borders was formed in the U.S. Congress. The map and award affixed by the state seal marking the significance of the documents are kept in the U.S. Congress Library. Another committee dealing with the demarcation of borders at the site was headed by Henry Morgenthau, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey in the times of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire,” the Armenian diplomat said. However, Papyan noted, November 29 the 11th Red Army entered Armenia and the First Republic stopped existence as an international element. “That is why the conditions of the Sevr and Lausanne treaties were not fulfilled. The USSR was not the assignee of the Republic of Armenia,” he said.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/arm/?nid=22212

WILSONIAN ARMENIA

Remembering Woodrow: “Wilson Month” reflected on US president’s lobby for Armenia

“I realize that I’m calling on Congress to make a very serious choice . . . Our recognition of Armenia’s independence will mean true freedom and guaranteed happiness for its people...”

One of the politicians most respected by the Armenian people, 28th president of the United States Woodrow Wilson signed under these words in his speech to the U.S. Congress in May 1920. In November 2006, different establishments of the republic marked the 150th birthday anniversary of the great humanist and Nobel Peace Prize winner.

“The pages of Armenian history do not remember any other such influential politician on the world scale as Wilson who would assert Armenia’s interests in the world arena with such adherence to principles and dedication,” Dean of the Department of Law at the American University of Armenia (AUA), Professor Tom Samuelian said on November 3. That day marked the start of the Wilson Days in Armenia. Dean of the AUA Department of Political Science and International Relations Lusig Danielian and doctor of political science Armen Ayvazyan also made reports.

Woodrow Wilson’s proposal concerning the definition of the border between Armenia and Turkey according to the decision of the San Remo conference and the Sevre Peace Treaty (August 1920) is called in diplomacy “Wilson’s Arbitration Regime”. Under the Sevre Treaty the signatories agreed to leave it to the U.S. discretion to define the border between Armenia and Turkey with Armenia’s ensured gateway to the Black Sea. On November 22, 1920, at the suggestion of Woodrow Wilson it was decided to draw the Armenian-Turkish border through Van, Bitlis and Mush and farther through Yerznka to provide Armenia with a convenient gateway to the Black Sea. The U.S. president himself signed off on this map of Armenia.

“Wilson’s Arbitration Regime” – the declaration of the new Armenian statehood, Western Armenia, on the ruins of the collapsed Ottoman Empire – was not translated into reality as republican Turkey of Mustafa Kemal together with Bolshevist Russia waged persevering struggle against the items of the Sevre Treaty and imposed a war on Armenia as a result of which the government of the First Armenian (Eastern) Republic was overthrown and a Soviet regime was established in the country. In the same year of 1920, the authorities of Armenia signed the Alexandropol Agreement and renounced the points of the Sevre Treaty.

However, different interpretations then appeared also among the Antanta allies. In particular, still on April 29, 1920, British Prime Minister D. Lloyd George, speaking at the House of Commons, said: “... As for Armenia, it proved to be a problem of extreme difficulty. The difficulty – and hardly need to say it to the friends of Armenia – is connected with the circumstance that there is no Armenian population in some of the vast areas which we wanted to hand over to Armenia and for getting which Armenia has historical reasons. But if they are transferred to Armenia, who will realize our decisions?” Later he would confess: “Oil outweighed the blood of Armenians.”

“Wilson Month” in Armenia was marked also by another event. In November, Armenia’s former ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary to Canada Ara Papian declared that there are all preconditions for the establishment of legal protectorate over the historical Armenian lands situated in the territory of modern-day Turkey. As he said, the Armenian side should turn to the judicial instances of the United Nations.

“Our country should seek recognition of the validity of the Sevre Treaty, as only this document was signed by the authorities during the period when Armenia still was an entity of international law,” Papian said. “If Armenia’s legal protectorate over a part of the territory of modern Turkey gains international recognition, then it will be possible to get the right of use of the transit ways situated in the territory of historical Armenia and also sue British Petroleum for the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline without coordination with the Republic of Armenia.”

“Ara Papian’s approach is quite realistic,” Giro Manoyan, a senior member of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Bureau in charge of the “Armenian Cause”, said, supporting the opinion of Armenia’s ex ambassador. “According to clause 89 of the Sevre Treaty, the right to draw a border between Armenia and Turkey was given to U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, and he allocated a territory of 160,000 square kilometers to Armenia,” Manoyan reminded.

Official Yerevan does not yet have a common state approach to this matter in its diplomatic arsenal. On April 18, 2005, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian stated: “The issue of the international recognition of the Genocide was and still remains on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda. I don’t know whether the next president of Armenia will raise the territorial issue. Let the next head of Armenian state speak about subsequent claims.”

The position of Armenian President Robert Kocharyan is interesting in this sense. Speaking on the same subject, as a rule he notes: “The question of the recognition of the Genocide and the question of territorial claims are two different problems and have no direct relations to each other. The question of territorial claims to Turkey should be regarded not in the aspect of Turkey’s recognizing the Genocide, but within the framework of the Sevre Peace Treaty.”

Source: http://www.armenianow.com/?action=vi...SSID=0f2c6b8e1

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

K. ZATULIN SAYS RUSSIA AND ARMENIA ARE PARTNERS

In 1995 Russian State Duma admitted Armenian Genocide and Russia’s position is balanced and stable. Konstantin Zatulin, an RF State Duma CIS counsel member expressed his ideas during “Ria Novosti” and “Novosti Armenia” press centers TV bridge meeting. According to him Russia is Armenia’s allied, and only for that reason keeps its troops in Armenia to strengthen the relations, and to resist the blockade. As for the delay of the law of the USA parliament, he said that again the democratic values went beneath the national issues and in the result of “open bargain” the law went to its second stage. On the same subject Alexandr Konovalov, the president of Russian policy values institute, said that 70% of American weapons transferred to Iraq is conducted through Indjirliq military base, Turkey. That’s why the Americans think why they should break their relations because of the Armenians.

Source: http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2007/11/26/zatulin/

Armenian Genocide resolution fell victim to complicated circumstances in U.S. foreign policy

Memory is alive not only for Armenians but also for the entire humanity, Russian Duma member Konstantin Zatulin said during Yerevan-Moscow space bridge. In due time Russia demonstrated political will and despite timeserving circumstances the State Duma approved a legislation recognizing the Armenian Genocide and announcing April 24 the Day of Commemoration. There is no doubt that Russia holds a balanced stand on the issue,” he said. “The U.S. has approached adoption of H.Res.106 but unfortunately the legislation fell victim to complicated circumstances in the U.S. foreign policy. These are strategic relations with Turley, situation in Iraq and the problem of Northern Kurdistan,” Zatulin said. According to him, in this case national interest outweighed democracy. “Russia always supports Armenia in the Genocide recognition issue, since neglect of these problem resulted in other crimes against humanity,” he said adding that Armenia and Russia are strategic partners. “We have a military base to deprive the neighbor states of temptation to proceed from blockade to other actions,” he said. “Straggle against national minorities is a part of Kemal Ataturk’s political heritage and Turkey’s military doctrine doesn’t tolerate multiformity.” October 10, with a vote 27 to 21 the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs adopted the Armenian Genocide Resolution, H.Res.106, which was introduced by Representative Adam Schiff January 30, 2007. However, late October lead authors called on Speaker Pelosi to postpone the House vote.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=24191

No one asked Russia to mediate for normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations

No one asked Russia to mediate for normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, Russian Duma member Konstantin Zatulin said during Yerevan-Moscow space bridge. “Russia and Turkey are not united in a military or political bloc and we have no tools of pressure in this aspect. We do stand against Armenia’s blockade but cautiousness should be maintained in the Russian-Turkish relations. In 1990-ies Turkey was Russia’s rival in the South Caucasus and Middle Asia. Although tension has alleviated, we should take account of this factor,” he said. “Meanwhile, Russia should consider a law criminalizing denial of the Armenian Genocide,” he resumed.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=24196

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

MOMENTOUS IMPLICATIONS OF AZERBAIJAN-GEORGIA-TURKEY RAILROAD

The new Transcaucasian line: conspicuously avoiding Armenia

Ignoring the anti-constitutional opposition’s calls for immediate regime change, Georgia began construction work on its section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (Turkey) railroad on November 21. The railroad will connect Asia and Europe via the South Caucasus. The Georgian section is the linchpin to the entire project.

Presidents Ilham Aliyev, Mikheil Saakashvili, and Abdullah Gul attended the groundbreaking ceremony at the Marabda railroad station in southeastern Georgia and an inaugural event in Tbilisi. The three countries are carrying out this intercontinental project without any involvement by other parties or international organizations. With the European Union defaulting on its earlier-declared transit policy, and the United States neutralized on this issue by anti-Turkish and anti-Azeri lobbying in Congress, it is Azerbaijan that has taken the lead in this project, serving both regional and Western interests. The project will link the railroads of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey by constructing missing links and upgrading old, worn-out sections in Georgia and Turkey. When complete, the railroad will link up eastward from Baku with Kazakhstan by trans-Caspian shipping lines and westward, from the undersea railroad tunnel near Istanbul to wider Europe. The project is dubbed an “Iron Silk Road.”

Mainly at Azerbaijan’s initiative, in February 2007 the three countries signed an intergovernmental agreement to carry out this project. It involves building 105 kilometers of track from scratch, including 76 kilometers in Turkey and 29 kilometers in Georgia; and totally upgrading some 190 kilometers of old dilapidated tracks in Georgia. The target date for completion is 2010. Project costs are preliminarily estimated at $600 million, including $420 million for construction and reconstruction of those railroad sections, with the remainder to be spent on related infrastructure. The International Bank of Azerbaijan is financing most of the construction and reconstruction on Georgian territory. It has agreed to give Georgia a $200 million loan on the softest of terms: repayment in 25 years at 1% interest. Georgia will repay the loan from the revenue generated by the railroad on its territory. Turkey is financing and building the railroad section on its territory. The Azerbaijani company Azerinshat Service will construct the Georgian section.

Cargo volume on the railroad is anticipated at 5 million tons annually in the initial stage after 2010, some 15 million tons by mid-decade, and some 30 million tons annually from 2020 onward. Passenger service is also envisaged. This railroad will reconnect Georgia with the outside world after the Russian destruction or blockade of Georgia’s railroad outlets to Russia. The Georgian railroad’s Abkhaz section has been inoperable since the 1992-93 Russian military intervention; and other overland routes are closed since 2006 as part of Russia’s overall transport blockade. Moreover, the new outlet to Turkey and Europe reorients Georgia’s main transport axis from the Russian to the Western direction. It “opens a window to Europe for Georgia and its citizens,” Saakashvili said at the groundbreaking event. It can also create tens of thousands of new jobs in Georgia and help revitalize the deeply impoverished, mostly Armenian-populated Javakheti area, overcoming its economic isolation.

Azerbaijan had experienced (together with Georgia) the temporary blockade of its own railroad and other transport outlets by Russia during the two Chechen wars. The railway via Georgia to Turkey and Europe will now be safe from that type of Russian action. “This railroad will make Azerbaijan and Georgia stronger and more independent,” Aliyev stated at the groundbreaking event. For his part, Gul described this railroad as a “history-changing project,” one that ultimately links “China to London” on the shortest overland route through the South Caucasus and Turkey. Some observers anticipate that China will prefer this railroad over Russia’s Trans-Siberian for Chinese exports to this region and also to certain European destinations.

Kazakhstan is expected to use this railroad for at least 10 million tons of cargo annually for its booming exports, including oil and grain. With grain exports projected at up to 5 million tons annually, Kazakhstan is now completing construction of an 800,000-ton grain-handling terminal near Baku for storage and transfer from ships to railroad. Through this railroad, Kazakhstan gains unprecedented, direct access to Europe on the shortest overland route. Kazakhstan will be able to shift some of its westbound cargoes into this route, away from Russian railroads. These charge extortionate rates -- a long-standing grievance of Kazakhstan -- in the absence of competition. The Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey railroad will break Russia’s monopoly on railroad transport from Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, just as pipelines through the South Caucasus can break the Russian monopoly on oil and gas transit from Central Asia.

Source: http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372616

The New Transcaucasian Railway

Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan have signed an agreement to build a rail corridor that they hope will eventually link Europe with Asia. However, one country in the region -- Armenia -- is being left out. A railway through Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan will form part of a new "Iron Silk Road" -- following the route of the ancient trading link between east and west. Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan have sealed an agreement to build a railway which would improve cargo transportation among the countries and eventually revive the historic Silk Road trade route -- linking Europe and Asia. The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan travelled to the Georgian capital Tbilisi last Wednesday, Feb. 7, to sign the three-way agreement with his counterparts, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. The three agreed that construction on the railroad would start this year and should be finished by 2009. It will consist of a new 100-kilometer railway line connecting the eastern Turkish city of Kars with Georgia, while another 300 kilometers of existing track will be renovated. The governments hope this railway will connect eventually to the proposed Trans-Asian Rail Network, which is being supported by the United Nations. Transport ministers from Turkey, China, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan met last year to discuss the project, which could one day see passengers taking a train from London to China.

Peace and conflict in the Caucasus

The Ankara government has already forged closer ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan -- particularly for oil and gas delivery from the Caspian Sea -- with a pipeline connecting the Azerbaijani capital of Baku with Georgia and the Mediterranean Turkish port of Ceyhan. The former Soviet republics used to be connected by a Communist-era Transcaucasian Railroad, which once moved millions of tons of cargo every year; but traffic was suspended after the Iron Curtain fell. Not everyone in the region welcomes the planned new Transcaucasian route. The government in Armenia has criticized the decision by its three neighbors to develop a corridor that avoids Armenia altogether. Leaders in Yerevan say the plan deliberately ignores the old rail link between Armenia and Turkey, which has been idle since the the two countries cut off diplomatic ties in 1993. Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are not much better: The two countries bitterly disagree over the enclave of Nagoro- Karabakh. The mountainous territory inside Azerbaijan has been controlled by ethnic Armenian forces since a 1994 cease-fire ended six years of fighting, during which over 30,000 people died.

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...466159,00.html

ARMENIA OPPOSES TURKISH-GEORGIAN-AZERI RAIL PROJECT

Plans for the construction of a major railway linking Turkey to Azerbaijan via Georgia are prompting mounting concern in Armenia. Officials in Yerevan, fearing the completion of the railway would further isolate Armenia, have pressured Georgia to pull out of the multimillion-dollar project. The railway also is facing objections from the United States and the European Union. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey revealed their intention to pursue the railway project in May 2005 during the ceremonial opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. The presidents of the three nations said the rail link, estimated to cost roughly $400 million, would promote regional economic integration and create a new transport corridor between Europe and Central Asia.

The project essentially boils down to laying an almost 100-kilometer-long rail track between the eastern Turkish city of Kars and the southern Georgian town of Akhalkalaki. Armenian officials insist that the project makes no economic sense, pointing to the existing railroad running from Kars to the northern Armenian city of Gyumri and on to the two other South Caucasus countries. The Kars-Gyumri link has stood idle for over a decade due to the continuing Turkish economic blockade of Armenia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Armenian government argues that that Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan should make use of this Gyumri hub instead of spending hundreds of millions of dollars on building a new one. As an incentive, Yerevan has indicated that it would make the Gyumri hub available without insisting that Turkey lift its economic blockade. "Armenia is ready to let Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan use the existing railway line on Armenian territory without Armenia’s participation," Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian reiterated during an official visit to Tbilisi on June 27.

The issue was high on the agenda of Oskanian’s talks with Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili and Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili. A statement issued by the Armenian Foreign Ministry said Oskanian "stressed the economic and political importance of the operation of the Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi rail line." Armenian officials took little comfort in Bezhuashvili’s public assurances that the Turkish-Georgian-Azeri project is "purely commercial." They fear that the new railway would deepen Armenia’s economic isolation. Aggressive statements made recently by Azerbaijani officials, including President Ilham Aliyev, have helped fuel worries in Armenia. The landlocked country has already been left out of regional energy projects such as the BTC pipeline, due to the unresolved Karabakh conflict. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Influential Armenian lobbying groups in the United States have joined Yerevan in trying to thwart the project. They were instrumental in securing a US congressional committee’s June 15 vote to endorse an amendment that would prohibit the US Export-Import Bank from funding the railway’s construction. "With this amendment, we are sending a message to the governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan that continually excluding Armenia in regional projects fosters instability," said US Rep. Joseph Crowley, a New York Democrat who is the measure’s main sponsor. The amendment is expected to be considered by the full House of Representatives later this year. Similar legislation is pending in the US Senate, and the Bush administration has not voiced objections to either bill. The ambassador-designates to Armenia and Azerbaijan assured pro-Armenian US legislators during recent congressional hearings that Washington is against the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railroad. Without ex-im bank backing, US companies would likely be reluctant to invest in the project.

The European Union seems to take a similar view. "A railway project that is not including Armenia will not get our financial support," the EU’s external relations commissioner, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, said in Yerevan last February. Turkey and Azerbaijan appear undaunted by US and EU expressions of displeasure. Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s discussed the issue with Aliyev during a late June visit to Baku. The Turkish Daily News newspaper quoted Gul as telling the Azeri leader on June 20 that "Armenia can also join these projects if it wants." However, the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman, Namik Tan, clarified the next day that this could happen only after a resolution of the Karabakh dispute. The Karabakh peace process is currently stalemated. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Tan also downplayed the significance of likely US funding restrictions. "I think the three countries have enough funds. We can finance [the railway’s construction] in one way or another," he said. Baku had hoped to begin work on the railway later this year and have it completed by 2008. But with Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan having yet to agree on the sources of funding, this time frame seems unrealistic. Furthermore, the Georgian government is having what Gul reportedly described as "serious hesitations." This might explain why a planned meeting of the transport ministers of the three states, which had been planned for late June, has been postponed until late July. The director general of Georgia’s state-run rail network, Irakli Ezugbaya, publicly questioned earlier in June a feasibility study that was conducted and released by a Turkish company recently. The Caucasus Press news agency quoted him as saying that the study failed to predict the anticipated volume of cargo traffic along the would-be railway.

Source: http://www.eurasianet.org/department...av063006.shtml