Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations
One does not even have to read between the lines anymore to see the pro-Armenian stance Russian officials are taking regarding Artsakh. Recent comments made by Vladimir Kazimirov, the former Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, clearly reveals Moscow's interest in keeping the status-quo in the south Caucasus. Moscow is clearly signaling that it does not want to see an armed clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And if such a situation does occur Moscow is clearly forecasting the defeat of the Azeri military. Under this scenario the Armenian Republic along with Artsakh will ultimately come out as the victorious side. This will also ultimately vindicate the oft criticized "soft" approach of the Kocharyan administration in Yerevan towards the Artsakh problem. The complimentary comments towards the Armenian authorities is a vivid example of how well official Yerevan has been carrying out its diplomatic obligations internationally and playing the pro-Russian card regionally. In other words, by Yerevan loudly stating that they are ready for compromises with Azerbaijan, knowing full well that Azerbaijan is not willing to compromise the fate of Artskah, Yerevan is looking like it wants peace and stability in the region and Baku is looking like the aggressor, the trouble maker. And Yerevan's more than close relations with the region's superpower, Russia, and Baku's less than ideal relations with Moscow is obviously yet another factor that is fundamentally helping the Armenian side. I only wish those who support the actions of individuals like Jirayr Sefilian or Paruyr Hayrikian understood these nuances in international diplomacy and the realities of living the the Caucasus.
Armenian
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Russian Diplomat says Baku's Resumption of War to be Devastating
"Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh would cause more damage than in 1992-1994, since collisions would take place between well-equipped armies not guerilla troops," said Vladimir Kazimirov, the former Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. If war resumes, he said, neither side would manage a victorious blitzkrieg. Hostilities will linger for the next 4-5 years and the consequences will be destructive for the initiator first and foremost. This is a fact that demands very thorough consideration by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, he said.
According to Kazimorov, the war is a threat for the entire international community as well. "The South Caucasus is not a region deserving indifference," he said, noting that it won't be easy to justify new carnage or an occupation of Armenia, since everyone sees Yerevan and Stepanakert as insisting on a compromise solution, while Baku stubbornly threatens war if Armenians don't relinquish all territorial claims, including Nagorno-Karabakh. The Repetition of hostilities will be perceived as a great anomaly," the Russian diplomat said.
"The side that dares to violate the armistice will immediately draw universal condemnation for breaking from the principles of the OSCE and the commitments to the CoE," he stated. "World powers and influential international organizations, which have worked for a peaceful resolution of the conflict will severely condemn the aggressor," he added.
Although Article 9 of the Azerbaijani constitution rejects war as a means of settling international conflicts, Azeri leaders have already undermined the authority of their Laws by making repeated bellicose statements, Kazimorov noted. They don't fail to cite the Constitution when commenting on the referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh but they completely ignore the above-mentioned article, he added. Baku's role in exacerbating the situation in the Caucasus is becoming more apparent, Kazimorov stated. Baku has been intensifying the arms race in the Caucasus by drastically boosting its defense budget year after year. While President Heydar Aliyev has completely neglected the agreement with Armenia and Karabakh on the suppression of border incidents, he noted.
Every day the Azeri Defense Ministry reports a violation of the ceasefire by Armenians. However, if Baku truly wanted to suppress such incidents, why doesn't it follow the agreement officially signed under the aegis of the OSCE? Meanwhile, Yerevan and Stepanakert have time and again stated their support of the agreement. If Baku thinks this agreement imperfect, it could be amended or replaced by another one. However, it is clear that Azerbaijan prefers the mounting casualties so as to aggravate tensions and pursue their hysterical propaganda. According to Daniel Fried, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs armed revenge will entail grave consequences and ruin Azerbaijan's future.
Source: http://www.huliq.com/40008/russian-d...be-devastating
One does not even have to read between the lines anymore to see the pro-Armenian stance Russian officials are taking regarding Artsakh. Recent comments made by Vladimir Kazimirov, the former Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, clearly reveals Moscow's interest in keeping the status-quo in the south Caucasus. Moscow is clearly signaling that it does not want to see an armed clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And if such a situation does occur Moscow is clearly forecasting the defeat of the Azeri military. Under this scenario the Armenian Republic along with Artsakh will ultimately come out as the victorious side. This will also ultimately vindicate the oft criticized "soft" approach of the Kocharyan administration in Yerevan towards the Artsakh problem. The complimentary comments towards the Armenian authorities is a vivid example of how well official Yerevan has been carrying out its diplomatic obligations internationally and playing the pro-Russian card regionally. In other words, by Yerevan loudly stating that they are ready for compromises with Azerbaijan, knowing full well that Azerbaijan is not willing to compromise the fate of Artskah, Yerevan is looking like it wants peace and stability in the region and Baku is looking like the aggressor, the trouble maker. And Yerevan's more than close relations with the region's superpower, Russia, and Baku's less than ideal relations with Moscow is obviously yet another factor that is fundamentally helping the Armenian side. I only wish those who support the actions of individuals like Jirayr Sefilian or Paruyr Hayrikian understood these nuances in international diplomacy and the realities of living the the Caucasus.
Armenian
************************************************** *********************
Russian Diplomat says Baku's Resumption of War to be Devastating
"Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh would cause more damage than in 1992-1994, since collisions would take place between well-equipped armies not guerilla troops," said Vladimir Kazimirov, the former Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. If war resumes, he said, neither side would manage a victorious blitzkrieg. Hostilities will linger for the next 4-5 years and the consequences will be destructive for the initiator first and foremost. This is a fact that demands very thorough consideration by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, he said.
According to Kazimorov, the war is a threat for the entire international community as well. "The South Caucasus is not a region deserving indifference," he said, noting that it won't be easy to justify new carnage or an occupation of Armenia, since everyone sees Yerevan and Stepanakert as insisting on a compromise solution, while Baku stubbornly threatens war if Armenians don't relinquish all territorial claims, including Nagorno-Karabakh. The Repetition of hostilities will be perceived as a great anomaly," the Russian diplomat said.
"The side that dares to violate the armistice will immediately draw universal condemnation for breaking from the principles of the OSCE and the commitments to the CoE," he stated. "World powers and influential international organizations, which have worked for a peaceful resolution of the conflict will severely condemn the aggressor," he added.
Although Article 9 of the Azerbaijani constitution rejects war as a means of settling international conflicts, Azeri leaders have already undermined the authority of their Laws by making repeated bellicose statements, Kazimorov noted. They don't fail to cite the Constitution when commenting on the referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh but they completely ignore the above-mentioned article, he added. Baku's role in exacerbating the situation in the Caucasus is becoming more apparent, Kazimorov stated. Baku has been intensifying the arms race in the Caucasus by drastically boosting its defense budget year after year. While President Heydar Aliyev has completely neglected the agreement with Armenia and Karabakh on the suppression of border incidents, he noted.
Every day the Azeri Defense Ministry reports a violation of the ceasefire by Armenians. However, if Baku truly wanted to suppress such incidents, why doesn't it follow the agreement officially signed under the aegis of the OSCE? Meanwhile, Yerevan and Stepanakert have time and again stated their support of the agreement. If Baku thinks this agreement imperfect, it could be amended or replaced by another one. However, it is clear that Azerbaijan prefers the mounting casualties so as to aggravate tensions and pursue their hysterical propaganda. According to Daniel Fried, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs armed revenge will entail grave consequences and ruin Azerbaijan's future.
Source: http://www.huliq.com/40008/russian-d...be-devastating
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