The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It's now obvious why Serbian and Russian politicians are making it clear that they will not seek a military solution to the Kosovo problem. The reality is that any armed attempt to retake Kosovo by Serbian and/or Russian forces will bring them into direct confrontation with US forces, a situation Serbia nor Russia can afford to risk at this time. There are also indicators that Russia and the US have most probably come to an understanding over Kosovo: Kosovo goes to the US camp despite Moscow's disapproval, and Serbia goes more-or-less to Russia, despite West's disapproval. However, in the longterm, this situation may actually end up working in Russia's favor because this will give Moscow better leverage in the disputed autonomous regions of the Caucasus as it also ensures Serbian dependence on Russia. Thus, the battle for Kosovo, in the foreseeable future, will be primarily economic and diplomatic - that is if extremists on either side don't ignite the volatile powder keg.

In my opinion, the Serbs cannot just do nothing. There are options available to them. For one, Belgrade + Moscow, must ensure that the Kosovo Serbs are armed to the teeth. Were I sitting in Belgrade or Moscow right now, I would be planning a paramilitary insurrection. Maybe, that is in fact what they are doing. If there is a "great game" going on -- what is Russia's move? I think it is imperative that Serbia is brought into the CSTO. They keep talking "Europe, Europe". Forget Europe when the question is your national survival.

Bring Russians into Serbia to protect this nation from any possible NATO aggression, arm the Kosovo Serbs, begin a paramilitary insurrection. Under these conditions, we can bet that nothing will be going through Kosovo, and will be nothing but an economic drag on the United States, and hardly will generate profits.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Skahar, I agree. But would the Serbian leadership today risk destroying Serbia over Kosovo? Don't think that if an insurgency begins in Kosovo, Serbia will be able to stay out of the crisis. Russia will help without doubt, but it will not get 'directly' involved, at this time. In the end, there is a real risk that Serbia can get devastated and Kosovo will remain firmly in Western hands. This is not a street fight, nor is it a family dispute. If you are going to pick a war to fight, you must be 100% sure you can win. In my opinion, this Kosovo situation will be a decades long political ordeal similar to Palestine, Taiwan, northern Cyprus and Nagorno Karabagh. If a war over Kosovo occurs it will be incidental, not by design.

In my opinion, the Serbs cannot just do nothing. There are options available to them. For one, Belgrade + Moscow, must ensure that the Kosovo Serbs are armed to the teeth. Were I sitting in Belgrade or Moscow right now, I would be planning a paramilitary insurrection. Maybe, that is in fact what they are doing. If there is a "great game" going on -- what is Russia's move? I think it is imperative that Serbia is brought into the CSTO. They keep talking "Europe, Europe". Forget Europe when the question is your national survival. Bring Russians into Serbia to protect this nation from any possible NATO aggression, arm the Kosovo Serbs, begin a paramilitary insurrection. Under these conditions, we can bet that nothing will be going through Kosovo, and will be nothing but an economic drag on the United States, and hardly will generate profits.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Great assessment of the situation, but I must ask, do you really think at this time or in the near future the u.s. could spare itself to send troops to georgia if the situation which you discribed occurs? I happen to think it can not especially in light of that fact that u.s. forces will be in iraq for the foreseeable future, not to mention afghanistan. This article recently published shows that even top american military analysts both tied to the pentagon and those not, agree that the military is "stretched dangerously thin and a country ill-prepared for the next fight."Also, the article touches upon, but does not go in detail about the infighting found between the various cliques within the pentagon/DoD.

Armanen, much of the talk you see and hear about the US military being at a "breaking point" has to do with internal politics in Washington, or attempts by the US armed forces committee to solicit more funds for the military. You are not looking at the big picture and you are underestimating the war making capabilities of NATO and the US. If any problems occur in the Balkans and/or Georgia, it won't be the US acting alone. In the Balkans, as you can see, the US has conditioned the Albanians and Bosnians to work for Americans, and, if need be, to die for it. What's more, there are already hundreds of thousands of highly trained and armed US and NATO forces already stationed throughout Europe. These forces can respond to any hostility without taking US troops out of other theaters of operation. To fund such an ordeal the US government will just have to borrow another few trillions dollars from the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar is in essence a worthless piece of paper that they keep printing. Thus, money spent is money invested. According to the article regarding Bondsteel, Rumsfeld is said to have stated: "My view is we don't spend on you, we invest in you. The men and women in the armed services are not a drain on our economic strength. Indeed you safeguard it. You're not a burden on our economy, you are the critical foundation for growth."

What Washington is attempting in regions across the world, politically, financially and militarily is for longterm gains. The situation in Georgia will be similar as well. Hostilities there can potentially involve NATO, US troops based in Europe and regional pro-American forces such as Chechens, Georgians and Turks. Therefore, there is a lot NATO and US forces can do in the region without adding additional stress to the US military. As a matter of fact, war in the Caucasus and/or the Balkans will see US and NATO forces acting primarily as "command and control" with heavy reliance on air forces and missiles attacks, while the ground forces will constitute primarily of regional allies. In my opinion, war in the Balkans and/or the Caucasus can be much easier logistically/administratively than, let's say, a war against Iran, which will require hundreds of thousand of US troops and massive amounts of military ordnance. So, putting politics aside, the West is fully capable of causing havoc in the Balkans and the Caucasus. Moscow knows this, Belgrade know this.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenian: It was obvious that the US was there to stay in Bondsteel, back in 1999, when they built a church and a McDonalds in the base. Did you not know about Bondsteel at all, or just not what the article discusses? People are trying to geostrategically understand why Kosovo is so important to the US. Many suggestions were made: human rights (nonsense), Trepca mines minerals (nonsense), and a pipeline running through the region. The only one of the three that made sense to me was a pipeline, but why was Kosovo so crucial? Can't a pipeline run through Macedonia (occupied by NATO before 1999) and Albania (stooge state) to get to the Adriatic? Why was Kosovo so crucial? That is the difficult part for me to understand. The other issue I'm wondering about is that a trans-Balkan pipeline benefits most strongly Italy, so why is the US pushing it so strongly, considering the fact that it is Germany, UK, and France that are the big 3 of the EU? It would make much more sense to me if the US was obstructing the Nordstream pipeline running along the Baltic. Unless someone in Rome is pushing things... On the other hand, corrupt Western politicians may be financed by the Kosovo Albanian mafia drug money. Afghanistan since NATO occupation has shot up in opium production, and the Albanians distribute it to Europe. But what are the likelihoods that so many top policy leaders in Europe and the US are being financed by drug money? All of this is very hard for me to understand...any ideas?

In my opinion, all of the factors you outlined above fits into the general formula. However, again, you are missing the underlying factor in all this - the West's longterm fear of Russia. I have a lot of posts in this thread regarding this topic. The West has a serious fear of Russia's ability to control the economic lifeline of western Europe via its natural resources, and western Europe is 'directly' and 'critically' tied to US power - military, political, and financial. What's more, you are not taking into serious consideration that there is a potential for Moscow to create an alliance of Slavic/Orthodox nations in eastern Europe. And this, again, is a longterm threat to the West. Some time around 1990 I heard a Washington based military intelligence official stating more-or-less: With the Soviet Union collapsing we fear the rise of Orthodox nation, a new Byzantium... At the time it sounded interesting to me. I did not make much of it, however, it did stay in my mind. Now, looking back and assessing the geopolitical situations of the region in question, it makes perfect sense.

I knew of the US/NATO base in Kosovo, however, I had not paid attention to just how extensive it was in size and character. It's a massive modern fortress and its existence makes perfect sense once you realize what the US wants in the region: control of the region's vital oil/gas trade routes and keeping Moscow away. There are pipeline projects, such as the Nabucco and the Trans-Balkan, envision exploiting Caspian Sea region and Central Asian gas and oil. These projects are designed to serve the economy of the entire West, including the US. Thus, it does not only benefit Italy. What's more, you don't know what they have planned for the future. You are only looking at what currently exists. These projects are implemented gradually. These are very longterm economic plans that are designed to ensure the global primacy of the West. Besides which, pipelines can easily be extended and/or its route altered. You simply need to better understand the nature of the political/financial elite in the West and how they implement their agendas.

Nevertheless, this is how the picture looks thus far: US and EU work on conditioning close ties with regional allies - Bosnians and Albanians. To counter this, Moscow has been working on signing energy contracts with eastern European Slavs and Orthodox peoples. US and EU establish longterm bases in the Balkans. To counter this, Russia may set up similar bases in Belarus and Serbia. US is attempting to gain a foothold in Central Asia and the Caucasus. To counter this, Moscow is attempting to reassert itself in Central Asia and the Caucasus. US and EU want to extend their political, military and economic reach into eastern Europe - Moscow wants to buy into the energy sector of western Europe. Serbia has always been pro-Russia. Nations like Croatia, Bosnia and Albania have always been pro-West... Even in the early 90s one could see where the future geopolitical lines would fall. If this all sound simple, in a sense, it is.

In short: US forces in Kosovo are there to ensure that the region's pro-Russian forces stay in check and the oil/gas routes flow unhindered to the West. I also feel as if they somewhat sped up the recognition of Kosovo's independence because of Russia's fast resurgence. In my opinion, it was a race between Russia and the West. And all this is intrinsically tied to the proposed missile defense system being planned for central Europe; the eastward expansion of NATO; and "democracy and freedom" movements in so-called "totalitarian" states of Eurasia. However, Russia's political/economic/military resurgence and Moscow's recent inroads into the energy sector of the Europe has become a serious issue for the West. This is a great game and the tensions between "East" and "West" will escalate.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Thank you, Angessa. My best wishes for you and your family.

I am sorry but I 'm not that informed, he told me enough that he could so I would not worry. But it was not near Tartus, Tartus is where the militery fleet and operations centers are. It was near the Israel border. Instances of misfire and other such things are common place and rarely make the world news. But most don't actually believe that they are misfires I remember a few months ago when Israel hit several U.N personal and good amount died. Yet know one was charged or even a inspection over the adictdent. Thank you for the warm comment bringing honor to me. We have aways been loyal to the emperor(monarch) and russia and will aways be ready to fight to the death for are home. Well most see us as Russians but we actually see us a different ethic group or clan. I never really had any problem or heard something negatively except from american skinheads for some reason. We actually speak a different dialect of Russian called Kuban or Black Sea Balachka. But we are the most loyal warriors of Russian empire and are duty to defend Russia. For the socio political situation, we play a very large role. Many Kuban formed voluntary armies and fought for Abkhazia and South Ossetia Freedom from Georgian rule. Which is one of the big reasons why those areas want to be annexed into Russia. There also talk of sending voluntary soldiers to Kosovo at present. My prayers and Loving regards Angessa

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armanen, much of the talk you see and hear about the US military being at a "breaking point" has to do with internal politics in Washington, or attempts by the US armed forces committee to solicit more funds for the military. You are not looking at the big picture and you are underestimating the war making capabilities of NATO and the US. If any problems occur in the Balkans and/or Georgia, it won't be the US acting alone. In the Balkans, as you can see, the US has conditioned the Albanians and Bosnians to work for Americans, and, if need be, to die for it. What's more, there are already hundreds of thousands of highly trained and armed US and NATO forces already stationed throughout Europe. These forces can respond to any hostility without taking US troops out of other theaters of operation. To fund such an ordeal the US government will just have to borrow another few trillions dollars from the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar is in essence a worthless piece of paper that they keep printing. Thus, money spent is money invested. According to the article regarding Bondsteel, Rumsfeld is said to have stated: "My view is we don't spend on you, we invest in you. The men and women in the armed services are not a drain on our economic strength. Indeed you safeguard it. You're not a burden on our economy, you are the critical foundation for growth."

What Washington is attempting in regions across the world, politically, financially and militarily is for longterm gains. The situation in Georgia will be similar as well. Hostilities there can potentially involve NATO, US troops based in Europe and regional pro-American forces such as Chechens, Georgians and Turks. Therefore, there is a lot NATO and US forces can do in the region without adding additional stress to the US military. As a matter of fact, war in the Caucasus and/or the Balkans will see US and NATO forces acting primarily as "command and control" with heavy reliance on air forces and missiles attacks, while the ground forces will constitute primarily of regional allies. In my opinion, war in the Balkans and/or the Caucasus can be much easier logistically/administratively than, let's say, a war against Iran, which will require hundreds of thousand of US troops and massive amounts of military ordnance. So, putting politics aside, the West is fully capable of causing havoc in the Balkans and the Caucasus. Moscow knows this, Belgrade know this.

I do not for one second underestimate the powers behind the pentagon and american war machine, for I know what they have done, are doing, and will continue to do. These people have been at it for at least 300 years, and don't look ready to stop yet.

What you are describing in the Balkans and Caucasus is in essence a proxy war, and I agree it would be the most likely method employed by the u.s. & nato. While the u.s. would not have to commit or lose much manpower to any regional conflicts in the two above mentioned areas, they would nonetheless put themselves at risk of having to bail out their regional allies if things do not go their way. I realize that they also have the option of leaving them to fend for themselves, but if the situation really got out of hand and is as serious to "western" interests as we believe, then I really doubt that they would just cut their losses and leave. If needs be they will do it whether they can or not, I do not underesitmate them, but I am not yet sure they, as of today, have the will to rush into such a potentially costly mess for them.

Also, there are signs that there may be a thaw in the relations between Moscow and tiflis, and if the trend continues (I do not think it will), georgia would not be willing to play america's stooge in a proxy war with Russia unless Russia annexed Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. I know the georgian leadership has traditionally been short sighted but surely they must realize that america does have the reputation of leaving its "allies" high and dry when their interests are no longer being served. Also the fact that Russia borders them and will be here for the long run, whereas if georgia doesn't get its act together they may end up losing the rest of their territories.


In conclusion I'd say you have hit it on the bulleye, the major regions to watch in the upcoming 5, 10, 25 years will be the Balkans, Cacuasus, Central Asia, and the Far East.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7265036.stm

Russian passion for stocks and shares

Russia's enthusiasm for capitalism is evident at the thriving Micex stock exchange in the heart of Moscow.

The exchange has seen its volumes double every year since it opened in its present form in 2005, and it now trades $17bn (412bn roubles) worth of equities, bonds, derivatives and currencies every day.

But visitors to the building will not meet any excited bankers shouting and waving their hands.

Like most modern exchanges, Micex operates entirely by computer.

Planned economy

Western investors account for about 30% of Micex's trade, reflecting foreign enthusiasm for the new Russian economy.

In 2007, foreign direct investment in Russia amounted to $52bn, or about 5% of Russia's Gross Domestic Product.

Many international banks expect that figure to rise.

Micex official Elena Kochetkova wants to encourage more foreign trade, but she admits the operation would probably shock the communists of the Soviet era.

"I prefer not to talk about politics," she says. "But as a Russian person, I appreciate my history. Russia used to be a planned economy with no stocks.

"We're glad the exchange has been successful, and within ten years we hope the wealth of our people will increase."

Soviet repression

n the pre-Soviet era, Russia was regarded as a world leader in terms of finance.

The first mention of the construction of an exchange in Merchant's yard in Moscow dates back to 1790, and by the middle of the 19th Century there was a thriving trade.

Moscow's main stock exchange even survived the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, although the centralised Soviet economy later choked demand for long-term credit, the lifeblood of exchange activity.

But when the communist system collapsed in the early 1990s, the financial markets developed rapidly, with much less control and regulation than similar operations in the West.

Now, Micex claims its systems are in line with international standards, and it ranks as the 17th largest stock exchange in the world.

Progress

Some investors have been worried by signs of government interference in business.

The former chairman of the oil company Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was jailed for fraud and tax evasion and his company was taken away by the state.

However, Alexei Rybnikov, the chief executive of Micex, says other business people should not be worried.

"I think it is a bit of a misunderstanding, portraying the situation as if the Russian government is reversing the privatisation trend and trying to get back state ownership in recently privatised Russian companies," he says.

"What the state is actually doing right now is putting together various state-owned assets to form state-owned holding companies which control some of the sectors of the Russian economy."

As further evidence that the government is keen to privatise some of its assets, he points out that many companies which are majority owned by the state, such as the gas giant Gazprom, have shares listed on the exchange.

Mr Rybinkov remains proud of Russia's progress.

"We have a lot of economic freedom, we have modern and well developed capital markets. We are much closer to capitalism than we were 15 years ago," he says.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I find this bit interesting. I wonder how credible it is. Although this is exactly what I would be doing in their place. First and foremost, Serbia has to be fully secured. With Russia essentially taking control of Serbia's energy sector, they have get a military presence there and make Serbia an outpost for Russian geo-strategic interests.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=57373

Putin offers nukes to Serbia
Missile threat escalates as Russia goes to polls

LONDON – MI6 agents have monitored secret meetings between top Serbian officials and Russian President Vladimir Putin's anointed successor, Dmitry Medvedev, to discuss the installation of Russian nuclear missiles to contribute to what he told a Moscow election rally this weekend would "help to ensure Serbian security."

The president-in-waiting – no one seriously believes any other candidate will win this coming Sunday's election – also will ensure that President Vladimir Putin will become the nation's prime minister, effectively remaining the real power behind Medvedev after stepping down from the presidency.

"In fact Putin's descent into the prime minister's chair is the most interesting facet of the current situation. Putin has not revealed the motivation behind the decision to exchange his role as 'popularity god' for one of a simple bureaucrat," reveals an MI6 report.

The author, a senior analyst, concludes: "The acceptance of the prime minister's job is no more than a front – ensuring he remains the powerful puppeteer behind the puppet."

Certainly Putin's hand can be deduced in the threat to plant nuclear missiles in the region – so as to provide Russia with its own version of America's Star Wars.

In the past week, Medvedev's offer to provide missiles has escalated an already tense situation in the region. If Russian missiles are installed in Serbia, it could spread. Kosovo could become the first testing ground for Russia's new president as he continues to support the ever-deepening confrontation between Moscow and the West.

Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin is the premium, online intelligence news source edited and published by the founder of WND

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I find this bit interesting. I wonder how credible it is. Although this is exactly what I would be doing in their place...

The site looks like a political tabloid. I wouldn't take it seriously. Giving Serbia economic, diplomatic and military support is one thing. Giving them nukes? I don't think so.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia Quietly Starts to Shift Its Oil Trade Into Rubles

Americans surely found little to celebrate when the price of oil settled above $100 a barrel last week. They could, though, be thankful that oil is still priced in dollars, making the milestone of triple-digit oil prices noteworthy at all. Russia, the world’s second-largest oil-exporting nation after Saudi Arabia, has been quietly preparing to switch trading in Russian Ural Blend oil, the country’s primary export, to the ruble from the dollar. Industry analysts and officials, however, say that this change, if it comes, is still some time off. The Russian effort began modestly this month, with trading in refined products for the domestic market. Still, the effort to squeeze the dollar out of Russian oil sales is yet another project notable for swagger and ambition by the Kremlin, which has already wielded its energy wealth to assert influence in Eastern Europe and former Soviet states.

“They are serious,” said Yaroslav Lissovolik, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Moscow. “This is something they are giving priority to.”

Oil trading is nearly always denominated in dollars. When Middle Eastern oil is sold to Asia, for example, the price is set in dollars. Similarly, Russia’s large trade with Western Europe and the former Soviet states in crude oil and natural gas is conducted in dollar-denominated contracts. Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly, set the price of gas in Ukraine at $179 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2008, for example. There are no proposals yet to switch gas pricing away from dollars. As a result, companies and countries that buy petroleum products are encouraged to hold dollar reserves to pay for their supplies, coincidentally helping the American economy support its trade deficit. Russia would like to change this practice, at least among its customers, as a means of elevating the importance of the ruble, a new source of national pride after gaining 30 percent against the dollar during the current oil boom. In a speech on economic policy this month, Dmitri A. Medvedev, a deputy prime minister and the likely successor to President Vladimir V. Putin in elections on March 2, said Russia should seize opportunities created by the weak dollar.

“Today, the global economy is going through uneasy times,” Mr. Medvedev said. “The role of the key reserve currencies is under review. And we must take advantage of it.” He asserted that “the ruble will de facto become one of the regional reserve currencies.”

Other oil-exporting countries are also chafing at dealing in the weakening dollar. Since 2005, Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter, has tried to open a commodity exchange to trade oil in currencies other than the dollar. The Iranian ambassador to Russia said Iran might choose rubles to free his country from “dollar slavery.” To be sure, some economists have dismissed the project as improbable, given the exotic nature of a security — oil futures contracts denominated in rubles — that would blend currency risk with the dollar-based global oil market. Ruble-denominated futures contracts for Ural Blend, the main Russian grade, would be attractive only if the dollar continues to depreciate, said Vitaly Y. Yermakov, research director for Russian and Caspian energy at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. “There is a big distance between the desire to trade commodities for rubles and the ability to do so,” he said. All this has not stopped the Kremlin from trying.

In a sign of the government’s seriousness, a new glass-and-marble high-rise home for a ruble-denominated commodity exchange is rising this spring in a prestigious district in St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city after Moscow. The exchange will occupy three floors of the 16-story tower on Vasilievsky Island, one of the islands that make up the historic city center. The director of the St. Petersburg exchange, Viktor V. Nikolayev, said that the intention was to move slowly and gain market acceptance; the government will not strong-arm sellers or buyers onto the exchange, even in an industry dominated by the state. Web-based trading for refined products like gasoline or diesel is being introduced in three phases for domestic customers, beginning with government buyers like the Russian navy or municipal bus companies. Private brokers will be allowed to trade in March; futures contracts will be introduced in April. Mr. Nikolayev said no timeline had been established for trading for export on the exchange, which also handles grain, sugar, mineral fertilizer, cement and esoteric financial products like Russian government beef and pork import quotas — all in rubles.

“We are in Russia, and the currency is rubles, not euros, not dollars,” he said. “We don’t want to depend on the rise or fall of the dollar.” “We will trade in rubles, to strengthen the ruble,” he said.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/27/bu...=worldbusiness