The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Despite objections from Baku and certain circles within the Turkish government a Turkish delegation may soon visit Armenia.

Ankara's behavior in the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian war is evidence that Moscow is behind the recent sudden warming in Turkish-Armenian relations.

We certainly are living in interesting times...

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Turkey lays out plans for Caucasian alliance as Georgian FM in Istanbul

A Turkish delegation would visit Yerevan to hold meetings with their Armenian counterparts to convey Turkey's proposal for a Caucasus alliance, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said Sunday after meeting with his Georgian counterpart in Istanbul. Turkey's proposal was the country's latest effort to promote peace between Georgia and Russia since they fought a war this month over Georgia's separatist republic of South Ossetia. Babacan hosted Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili, two days before he is to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the same city. Georgia welcomed Turkey's proposal for a Caucasus alliance, Babacan told a joint press conference with his Georgian counterpart Tkeshelashvili. Georgian foreign minister, however, said her country would only consider joining such a group after Russian forces leave his country and fully apply the ceasefire. Russian troops entered Georgia on August 8 to push back a Georgian offensive to retake South Ossetia, which broke away from Tbilisi in the 1990s with Moscow’s backing. Georgia and Russia accuse each other of having provoked the conflict. Moscow has pulled out most troops after a French-mediated ceasefire agreement but Tbilisi wants all Russian forces to leave the country. Babacan said Turkey supported its northeastern neighbor's territorial integrity, and added the Caucasian countries had common futures. He said Turkish-Georgian relations were grounded on a strong basis, adding Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project are the natural products of Turkey's strategic cooperation and neighborly relations in South Caucasus. "These projects, in fact, have linked the Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean, Caspian basin with Anatolia and the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea," he said. Babacan also called on everyone to behave calmly after recent tension and disagreements in the region. "We all know from previous experiences that no one wins in such tensions, and every one will lose something," he said. Tkeshelashvili warned of a "domino effect" in the Caucasus region and Ukraine after Russia moved troops into Georgia. "Russia's military hostility against the small state of Georgia could have a domino effect in other countries of the region like Ukraine," she said. She accused Moscow of an "expansionist policy" and called on the international community to back Georgia's territorial integrity.

GUL'S VISIT

The Turkish delegation would also discuss with Armenian officials issues regarding a possible visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan to watch a football match between Armenia and Turkey, Babacan told the conference. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has invited Gul to watch a football match between the two countries' national teams on Sept. 6 to mark "a new symbolic start in the countries' relations." Turkish president said Saturday he is yet to make a decision on accepting the invitation. However, Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in the same day he wished Gul's visit would bring positive results, hinting that Gul might have actually decided to accept Sargsyan's invitation. Erdogan also said Babacan would accompany the Turkish President during the trip to discuss relations with Armenia. Turkey is among the first countries that recognized Armenia when it declared its independency. However there is no diplomatic relations between two countries, as Armenia presses the international community to admit the so-called "genocide" claims instead of accepting Turkey's call to investigate the allegations, and its invasion of 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory despite U.N. Security Council resolutions on the issue. A warming period had started between two neighboring countries after the presidents exchanged letters after Sargsyan's election victory.

Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/h...d=244&sz=99284

Turkish premier says Russia "more than special" for Turkey

Prime Minister Erdogan has said that Turkey is trying to make sure that the tension in the Caucasus does not become worse. He said: Russia is special for us. The prime minister was replying to reporters' questions during the Victory Day reception at the at the Gazi military club in Ankara. In reply to a question on President Gul's visit to Armenia, Erdogan said: May it be auspicious. As for the president, he said he has not yet decided whether to go or not. Erdogan said that together with Foreign Minister Babacan, they were trying to solve the problems in the Caucasus at the negotiation table. He said: Russia is more than special for us. The United States is our ally and Russia is our largest trade partner. We get two thirds of our energy from Russia. God forbid, we may remain in the dark. We are also sensitive in connection with Georgia. In connection with the warships in the Black Sea, Erdogan affirmed that the Montreux Convention would be followed, and that the ships will leave on time, and maybe earlier.

Source: http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg242390.html

Azerbaijan worries

Analysts warn that contacts with Armenia could offend Azerbaijan, Turkey's regional ally which also shares close ethnic and linguistic ties. Babacan assured his Azerbaijani counterpart, Elmar Mammadyarov, on Friday that Turkey was a strategic partner of Azerbaijan in all areas but signs of tension were visible during the one-day visit. The two ministers gave a very brief press statement after their talks and Mammadyarov said before meeting Babacan that his country would consider "profitability" concerning a Russian proposal to buy Azerbaijani oil, a move that would undermine a US-backed pipeline to transfer Caspian oil to Europe via Turkey. The government's apparent plans to initiate dialogue with Armenia are receiving criticism at home as well. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal told reporters yesterday that the government was trying to reverse the official policy without Armenia meeting any of the conditions requested by Turkey for normalization of ties. He warned against alienating Azerbaijan, saying this country is of vital importance for Turkey in many respects. "I want the government to refrain from taking any step that would harm Azerbaijan," he said and added that he would rather go to Baku than to Yerevan to watch the World Cup game.

Source: http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/de...1794&bolum=100

Lucin jan, we don't know what is transpiring behind the scenes in Yerevan, Moscow, Washington or Ankara. So, let's please give it some time before we begin forecasting doom and gloom for Armenia. As I said previously, Sargsyan's move regarding Turkey is being orchestrated by Moscow. It seems as if Moscow is attempting to drive a wedge between the West and Turkey and one of the tools they seem to be using is Armenia, the other being oil/gas/trade. Nonetheless, what is happening in the world currently is a bit beyond our national "cause" which, by international standards, is a bit insignificant. Make no mistake about it, the global community is on the brink of a major world war. Do you honestly think that our national interests would matter in such a situation? We Armenians think too damn highly of ourselves, sometimes to our detriment. Please take a close look at Armenia's geopolitical/socioeconomic stature before you demand things from the global community. Let's say, God forbid, Turkey and Russia decided to form a union, what in the world can Armenia do to stop it or fight it? To survive in such a case, official Yerevan would have to forget 'all' of its interests and simply pray/hope that its neighbors don't decide to do away with Armenia. So, what cause, what peoples mindsets, are you talking about? The hard reality is that Armenia (tiny, resourceless, impoverished, embattled, landlocked) exists today at the mercy of foreign powers, specifically at the mercy of Moscow. Before we demand things from our politicians let's first realize this hard reality.

There is another perspective to all this:

Turkey's lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with the Russian Federation was adversely effected due to the war in Georgia. Turkey also imports a majority of its oil and gas via Russia and Georgia. So now, with the Georgian-Russian border now effectively shutdown for the foreseeable future, with the entire Black Sea region a highly volatile powder keg, Ankara is in a very serious panic. Ankara is stuck between two very powerful forces, Washington and Moscow. As a result, it has a lot to lose in all this. Politicians in Moscow, on their part, do not want to see their lucrative trade with Ankar suffering either. As a result, Turkey and Russia are most probably attempting to seek an alternative transit route for their trade. Needless-to-state, as a result of the current war between Georgia and Russia, Armenia is ideally positioned to be this alternative conduit for trade, even perhaps a transit route for future gas/oil distribution. So, if and when Ankara and Yerevan begin talking, expect Baku to eventually jump in as well. I don't think this situation will have a negative impact on the status of Nagorno Karabagh. Worst case scenario, Armenia's genocide recognition pursuit would be placed on hold. Nonetheless, the near future holds many surprises.

So, with this in mind; Most probably, when Sargsyan was in Moscow last month he was told by Kremlin officials about what was about to happen in Georgia. That is why Sargsyan officially reached his hand out to Ankara. Ankara reciprocated with their "Caucasus Union" proposal that envisoned Armenia as a member. Obviously, there are forces both in Ankara and Yerevan that do not want rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia to occur. Nevertheless, official Yerevan is now in a unique position to make Armenia a transit corridor for Russian-Turkish trade. International trade (serious business) is, in essense, what this is all about.

The following news report from Turkey may be the clue:

Principle of reciprocity exists in Turk-Russia relations

Turkey's justice minister said on Saturday that there was a principle of reciprocity in interstate relations with Russia. Turkish Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin said that there were some problems with the movement of Turkish exports to Russia, and that a law of reciprocity was in effect between states. "Therefore, if a country behaves unjustly against us, we have the right to impose similar sanctions against that country," Sahin told reporters after Aug. 30 Victory Day celebrations in the Mediterranean city of Antalya. Sahin said that negative developments in the Caucasus had affected the entire region, and expressed Turkey's determination to continue working for peace and tranquility. The minister said that Turkey was facing problems in its exports to Russia, and expressed his belief that common sense would prevail. More than 100 trucks, transporting mostly consumer goods such as clothing, food and construction materials, are being held up at customs posts for up to four weeks at border crossings in Novorossiysk, Sochi and Taganrog, on Ukraine's border with Russia. Turkish exporters face the risk losing the market due to delayed orders and are also obliged to pay a waiting bill, as much as 1,000 euros per truck per day. The Turkish Trade Ministry had earlier estimated that the truck delays could cost Turkey as much as $3 billion in export revenues.

NATO SHIPS

On the NATO ships, Sahin reiterated the remarks of NATO secretary general that the ships would abide by the agreement governing the passage of foreign warships through the Turkish straits and leave the Black Sea within 21 days, and said that this statement must be respected. Russia had warned Turkey that it would be held responsible if the U.S. ships currently in the Black Sea stayed beyond the 21 days allowed under the Montreux Convention and said the entrance of NATO warships to the Black Sea was a serious threat to its security. NATO warships belonging to NATO members Spain, Poland and Germany, and U.S together with Turkey attended in Black Sea for long-planned exercises and routine visits to ports in Romania and Bulgaria. While, two more ships of the U.S. navy, which brought humanitarian aid to Georgia also exist in Black Sea at the moment. Sahin also said that the problem should be solved peacefully as soon as possible.

Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/d...3394.asp?scr=1

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia Claims Its Sphere of Influence in the World

Medvedev: Unipolarity is unacceptable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXBbGadYh0I

President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia on Sunday laid out what he said would become his government’s guiding principles of foreign policy after its landmark conflict with Georgia — notably including a claim to a “privileged” sphere of influence in the world. Speaking to Russian television in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, a day before a summit meeting in Brussels where European leaders were to reassess their relations with Russia, Mr. Medvedev said his government would adhere to five principles. Russia, he said, would observe international law. It would reject what he called United States dominance of world affairs in a “unipolar” world. It would seek friendly relations with other nations. It would defend Russian citizens and business interests abroad. And it would claim a sphere of influence in the world. In part, Mr. Medvedev reiterated long-held Russian positions, like his country’s rejection of American aspirations to an exceptional role in world affairs after the end of the cold war. The Russian authorities have also said previously that their foreign policy would include a defense of commercial interests, sometimes citing American practice as justification.

In his unabashed claim to a renewed Russian sphere of influence, Mr. Medvedev said: “Russia, like other countries in the world, has regions where it has privileged interests. These are regions where countries with which we have friendly relations are located.” Asked whether this sphere of influence would be the border states around Russia, he answered, “It is the border region, but not only.”

Last week, Mr. Medvedev used vehement language in announcing Russia’s recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Though he alluded in passing to respecting Georgia’s territorial integrity, he defended Russia’s intervention as necessary to prevent a genocide. Mr. Medvedev, inaugurated in May, was an aide to Vladimir V. Putin, the former president and now prime minister. Mr. Putin appeared on Russian television on Sunday from the nation’s far east, where he was inspecting progress on a trans-Siberian oil pipeline to China and the Pacific Ocean, a clear warning to Europe that Russia could find alternative customers for its energy exports. He was later shown in a forest, dressed in camouflage and hunting a Siberian tiger with a tranquilizer gun. Leaders of the 27 members of the European Union, who will meet in an emergency session on Monday, were considered highly unlikely to impose sanctions or go beyond diplomatic measures in expressing disapproval of Russia’s conflict with Georgia. The members in Eastern Europe have tended to be more wary and more confrontational toward Russia, while Western European countries have tended to be more concerned with not jeopardizing energy imports from Russia.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/01/wo...russia.html?hp

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state'

The Kremlin moved swiftly to tighten its grip on Georgia’s breakaway regions yesterday as South Ossetia announced that it would soon become part of Russia, which will open military bases in the province under an agreement to be signed on Tuesday. Tarzan Kokoity, the province’s Deputy Speaker of parliament, announced that South Ossetia would be absorbed into Russia soon so that its people could live in “one united Russian state” with their ethnic kin in North Ossetia. The declaration came only three days after Russia defied international criticism and recognised South Ossetia and Georgia’s other separatist region of Abkhazia as independent states. Eduard Kokoity, South Ossetia’s leader, agreed that it would form part of Russia within “several years” during talks with Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian President, in Moscow.

The disclosure will expose Russia to accusations that it is annexing land regarded internationally as part of Georgia. Until now, the Kremlin has insisted that its troops intervened solely to protect South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian “aggression”. Interfax news quoted an unidentified Russian official as saying that Moscow also planned to establish two bases in Abkhazia. Sergei Shamba, Abkhazia’s Foreign Minister, said that an agreement on military co-operation would be signed within a month. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that agreements on “peace, co-operation and mutual assistance with Abkhazia and South Ossetia” were being prepared on the orders of President Medvedev. Abkhazia said that it would ask Russia to represent its interests abroad. Georgia announced that it was recalling all diplomatic staff from its embassy in Moscow in protest at the continued Russian occupation of its land in defiance of a ceasefire agreement brokered by President Sarkozy of France. The parliament in Tbilisi declared Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be under Russian occupation.

Gigi Tsereteli, the Vice-Speaker, dismissed the threat of South Ossetia becoming part of Russia, saying: “The world has already become different and Russia will not long be able to occupy sovereign Georgian territory. “The regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should think about the fact that if they become part of Russia, they will be assimilated, and in this way they will disappear.” Lado Gurgenidze, the Prime Minister of Georgia, scrapped agreements that had permitted Russian peacekeepers to operate in the two regions after wars in the early 1990s. He called for their replacement by international troops. Vyacheslav Kovalenko, Moscow’s Ambassador to Georgia, described Tbilisi’s decision to sever relations as “a step towards further escalation of tensions with Russia and the desire to drive the situation into an even worse deadlock”.

Russia attacked the G7 after the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan condemned its “excessive use of military force in Georgia”. In a joint statement, they had called on Russia to “implement in full” the French ceasefire agreement. The Foreign Ministry said that the G7 was “justifying Georgian acts of aggression” and insisted that Moscow had met its obligations under the six-point agreement. Having been rebuffed on Thursday by China and four Central Asian states, Russia will seek support next week from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) for its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The CSTO comprises Russia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The signing of the military agreement with South Ossetia will take place the day after an emergency summit of European Union leaders to discuss the crisis. The French presidency of the EU said that sanctions against Russia were not being considered, contradicting an earlier statement by Bernard Kouchner, the Foreign Minister. Russia told the EU that any sanctions would be damaging to both sides. Andrei Nesterenko, a Foreign Ministry official, said: “We hope that common sense will prevail over emotions and that EU leaders will find the strength to reject a one-sided assessment of the conflict . . . Neither party needs the confrontation towards which some countries are being energetically pushed by the EU.”

Russia also lashed out at Nato, saying that it had “no moral right” to pass judgment on the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Foreign Ministry said: “Further sliding to confrontation with Russia and attempts to put pressure on us are unacceptable, as they can entail irreversible consequences in the military-political climate and in stability on the continent.” The US confirmed that the flagship of its Sixth Fleet, the USS Mount Whitney, would deliver aid to Georgia next week. Two other warships are moored off Georgia’s Black Sea port of Batumi, and Russia has ordered its fleet to take “precautionary measures”. Mr Medvedev has accused the US of shipping weapons to Georgia along with aid, a claim dismissed as “ridiculous” by the White House.

Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4635843.ece

Sarkisian To Meet Russia’s Medvedev

President Serzh Sarkisian will meet his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev early next week for talks that will apparently focus on Russia’s bitter conflict with Georgia. Sarkisian’s office said on Friday the meeting will take place in the Russian Black Sea port of Sochi next Tuesday. It said the two presidents will discuss “further development of the Russian-Armenian strategic partnership” and “regional and international issues.” Armenia’s unfolding presidency of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russian-led military alliance of six ex-Soviet states, will also be on the agenda, it added. No further details were reported. Medvedev and Sarkisian already discussed the crisis over Georgia in a phone conversation on August 13, one week after the outbreak of fighting in South Ossetia that escalated into an all-out Russian-Georgian war. The Armenian presidential press service said afterwards that they “agreed to hold, if need be, additional consultations on further developments” in the conflict zone. Armenia has avoided openly taking sides in the dispute, mindful of Georgia’s vital significance for its transport communication with the outside world and its dependence on Russia for defense and energy resources. Still, Sarkisian did signal last week his disapproval of Tbilisi’s disastrous attempt to restore Georgian control over South Ossetia by force. And while declining to support Russia’s decision to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, official Yerevan has made clear it that it believes the status of the two breakaway territories should be determined by their pro-Russian populations.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...34BCAF18E7.ASP

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

By choosing direct confrontation with Moscow Georgia's very own idiot child, Saakashvili, revealed the many weaknesses and inherent impotence of his closest partners in the West. And now, signs of a deeply troubled marriage...

Armenian

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U.S. Ally Proves Volatile Amid Dispute With Russia

Russia's claim that the U.S. orchestrated the conflict in Georgia has sharpened the dispute between the two superpowers. But despite close links between the U.S. and Georgia, their relationship in recent years has been marked more by frustration than coordination. According to interviews with current and former U.S. officials, as well as with Georgian officials in Tbilisi, the U.S. for years has found the relationship with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili difficult to manage. From Mr. Saakashvili's ascent to power in the 2003 "rose revolution" to his assault this month on Tskhinvali, capital of separatist South Ossetia, his risky moves have often caught Washington unprepared and left it exposed diplomatically, U.S. officials say.

American frustrations have been matched by those in Tbilisi. At a crucial moment earlier this year, a lame-duck administration in Washington was unable to deliver European support to kick-start Georgia's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Georgian president says he gave repeated warnings to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others that Russia would attack unless the West signaled strong support, including through NATO. These warnings, he says, went unheeded. Regardless of who was at fault, the end result was what the U.S. and Georgia both feared. Georgia's territory is being carved up, U.S. influence in the region has been dented, NATO expansion is harder to achieve, and Europe's dependence on Russian energy has been highlighted. Russia, which smashed the Georgian military and still occupies chunks of its territory, has re-emerged as the region's dominant power.

"I don't blame them," said Mr. Saakashvili, referring to the initial lack of response from Western leaders, during a recent interview at his half-constructed presidential residence in Tbilisi. They didn't respond to Georgia's pleas because they didn't believe him about Russia's intent to invade, Mr. Saakashvili says. "Everything happens a first time. You cannot predict it until you see it."

On Thursday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. of arming Georgia in preparation for war and of deliberately starting the conflict to help the U.S. presidential campaign of one of the two candidates, presumably Republican Senator John McCain. The former Russian president said the resulting "hurrah-patriotism" would "unify the nation around certain political forces." Yet the gap in Georgian and Western expectations remains. This week, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two separatist regions of Georgia that are at the center of the conflict. Mr. Saakashvili wants the West to levy financial sanctions but the European Union is considering only diplomatic penalties ahead of an emergency meeting Monday. Moscow is a bigger trade partner for the EU than China, but trades less with the U.S. Mr. Saakashvili's U.S. ties trace back to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, after which the young Georgian joined a human-rights nonprofit. He won a U.S. State Department fellowship and studied at Columbia University Law School in New York. He started making contacts across Washington with people, including Sen. McCain, who had a strong interest in the ex-Soviet Union and wanted to see NATO expand.

The Columbia diploma hangs on Mr. Saakashvili's office wall today. Next to it are biographies of Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, Stalin and Ataturk -- a role model -- as well as books on war and one called "How to Run an Airport." While in office, Mr. Saakashvili has proved a radical on the economy, introducing market-oriented changes that won him high praise from institutions such as the World Bank. But he has proved just as radical in his determination to shake off centuries of Russian influence by joining NATO, and to retrieve Georgia's breakaway territories. When Mr. Saakashvili rose to power at the head of Georgia's so-called rose revolution following a disputed election, Moscow saw it as a U.S.-inspired coup. Some U.S. officials were also concerned. Washington's then-Ambassador Richard Miles tried to restrain Mr. Saakashvili, worried he might destabilize the country, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Saakashvili's storming of Georgia's parliament, which forced the resignation of autocratic President Eduard Shevardnadze and led to a new election, caught U.S. officials off guard. At the time, support for Mr. Shevardnadze was official U.S. policy, and key American diplomats thought they could still work with him. "It was like the U.S. was slamming the brakes all the time," says Scott Horton, who hired Mr. Saakashvili to his first law job in New York and kept in regular contact with him. "The U.S. was always trying to calm him down." Mr. Saakashvili didn't rely on the State Department to secure support in Washington, and worked hard to create alternative channels of communication. He hired Randy Scheunemann, now Sen. McCain's top foreign-policy adviser, as a lobbyist. The U.S. Agency for International Development paid for Daniel Kunin, a former National Democratic Institute official, to work as a full-time adviser to the Georgian president. Mr. Kunin has become an indispensable aide, staying on after his agency contract expired earlier this year.

Buoyed by the euphoria of the rose revolution, Mr. Saakashvili forced a showdown early in 2004 with Aslan Abashidze, the Moscow-backed ruler of Ajara, a breakaway province in southwestern Georgia. Visiting Tbilisi that March, Carlos Pascual, who headed the State Department's financial-assistance team for Georgia, says not only the U.S. but also Georgia's prime minister, Zurab Zhvania, was surprised by Mr. Saakashvili's rapid push. "You'd think you'd bring all hands on deck for this one," Mr. Pascual says. Mr. Abashidze eventually fled to Moscow. Though bloodless, many worried at the time that the confrontation would spark a war. Mr. Pascual and other U.S. officials say Mr. Saakashvili's Ajara move may have emboldened him to take further risks. In June 2004, he carried out a military operation in South Ossetia that seemed designed to trigger a similar internal collapse. The attempt failed, hardening attitudes inside South Ossetia, according to Western diplomats present at the time.

Washington's biggest shock came in November 2007, when Mr. Saakashvili cracked down on opposition protesters using tear gas and rubber bullets. He shut down opposition TV stations. This shattered Mr. Saakashvili's credibility as a champion of democracy. Matthew J. Bryza, a longstanding friend of Mr. Saakashvili and the State Department's point man for Georgia, was sent to deliver what he describes as a "tough" message: Mr. Saakashvili had to get the TV stations back on the air and restore democratic institutions, or lose U.S. support. Asked about these tensions, Mr. Saakashvili says: "What we saw was a foreign-led destabilization, and what [Washington] clearly saw was us overreacting to internal opposition. I think the truth was somewhere in the middle." At the time, the Bush administration was driving through independence for Kosovo, a breakaway Serbian province. That infuriated Russia, a close ally of Serbia. Later Moscow would cite the Kosovo precedent in pushing the claims of separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In early April, Georgian officials were desperate to start talks about joining NATO and hoped a meeting in Bucharest would send a clear signal of Western commitment to Georgia and deter any moves by Moscow. Mr. Bush strongly backed the Georgian bid, but in his final year lacked the clout to persuade some European NATO members, led by Germany, who worried about Mr. Saakashvili's reliability and Russian opposition to the move. In July, at a late-night session of a regional security conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia, the Georgian president expressed hope the U.S. would provide sophisticated weapons, including Stinger air-defense missiles. One American participant says he told Mr. Saakashvili: "This is never going to happen." Mr. Saakashvili and other Georgian officials say they understood the U.S. wouldn't go to war with Russia for Georgia. But the government remains deeply disappointed over how little the U.S. and European Union did before the crisis. "It looked like the West didn't want to get involved," says Mr. Saakashvili

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1220..._us_whats_news

Please read the following article to realize just how delirious Georgians are:

Georgian Fantasies: Where are the Americans?

It's still not certain what motivated the Georgian government to launch its attack on South Ossetia in the face of ongoing Russian hostility and recent military maneuvers which all-but guaranteed a swift and devastating response. Georgia's Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said simply: "We did not prepare for this kind of eventuality." His government was extraordinarily foolish, if not demented. Acknowledging that the Georgian military lacked sufficient anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons to protect its ground forces, Kutelia said he "didn't think it likely that a member of the UN Security Council and the [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe] would react like this." Moreover, the government in Tbilisi seemed to believe that being an informal American ally, with its military financed and trained by Washington – even if Georgia was not formally part of NATO – would deter any Russian attack. And that the U.S., with precisely zero interest in promoting Georgia's territorial ambitions and even less in fighting Russia, nevertheless would backstop Tbilisi's assault on the separatist enclave.

After giving Moscow the perfect excuse to intervene and suffering the horrid consequences of doing so, Georgians automatically turned to America. Save us, cried everyone from President Mikheil Saakashvili to combat soldiers to fleeing refugees. Where is America, they screamed? Shouting the loudest was Saakashvili, the author of Georgia's present distress. Nationalist, mercurial, authoritarian, he desperately wanted his nation to join NATO and he regularly criticized the Europeans for not doing more to aid his distant country, nestled between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea amidst the Caucasus Mountains. Having invested in Washington's war against Iraq (providing 2000 soldiers for the occupation) and in American politicians (paying the lobbying firm of John McCain's foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, nearly $1 million), Saakashvili expected a return on his country's investment.

Did he assume the pay-off would be automatic, or did he consult with his American friends? If we take the administration at its word that it discouraged Georgian adventurism, any encouragement would have had to come from others. On the Huffington Post David Bromwich observes: "if there was a single Western luminary [Saakashvili] would have wanted to consult, it was surely his old lobbyist and personal adviser Randy Scheunemann. The calculation by Scheunemann must have been that even if things went badly at first, for Georgia, the result of Russian suppression would be good for John McCain. Besides, McCain, as president, could eventually rescue Saakashvili by another path." Scheunemann isn't talking, but Saakashvili's expectations obviously were high. In March he declared: "I have to thank you, Mr. President, for your unwavered [sic] support for our freedom, for our democracy, for our territorial sovereignty and for protecting Georgia's borders and for Georgia's NATO aspirations." Although Saakashvili didn't say in what form he expected that protection, it would be surprising if he did not hope for more than anguished facial expressions and dramatic hand-wringing.

When the American legions didn't appear to battle the Russians, he launched a charm offensive through interviews with the Western press, seeking U.S. intervention. He affirmed that he holds "American values" and pleaded: "Please wake up everybody. And please make your position and speak with one united voice." He told CNN: "It's not about Georgia anymore. It's about America, its values. We are a freedom-loving nation that is right now under attack." He told a German newspaper that President Bush "understands that it's not really about Georgia but in a certain sense it's also an aggression against America." Saakashvili tried the same tactic with the Europeans, warning that "Unless Russia is stopped … tomorrow Russian tanks might enter any European capital." He quoted Sen. John McCain's "we are all Georgians" line to applauding crowds in Tbilisi. For a time the administration refused to rule out use of military force against Russia's forces. Deputy National Security Adviser James F. Jeffrey said "Right now our focus is on working with both sides, with the Europeans and with a whole variety of international institutions and organizations, to get the fighting to stop." But that option probably was never seriously considered. A top State Department official told the New York Times: "There is no possibility of drawing NATO or the international community into this." Forget the fraternal expressions of friendship. It was realpolitik time.

[...]

Source: http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=13377

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Besides discussions concerning bilateral trade and the situation regarding Georgia I have a very strong feeling that the two presidents will be discussing Armenian-Turkish relations as well.

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Russian, Armenian presidents to discussion situation in Caucasus

Presidents Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia meet in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi later Tuesday to discuss the current situation in the Caucasus and new large-scale bilateral cooperation projects. "The sides will consider joint projects in the processing industry and transport that will facilitate a doubling of Russian capital investment in Armenia over the next few years," a Kremlin source told Itar-Tass. Medvedev and Sargsyan took the offices of president in their respective country this year with an interval of a month from each other. Sargsyan made trips to Moscow March 24 and June 24 and a trip to St Petersburg June 6 where he attended an informal summit of the CIS. “This meeting will become yet another event in the meaty and trustworthy dialogue between the two countries that aim develop their versatile strategic partnership,” the source said. “The sides will exchange opinions on the situation in the Caucasus and on some pressing issues of the Russian-Armenian agenda, and Medvedev will also tell Sargsyan about Russia’s assessment of the situation that has taken shape in the wake of Georgia’s aggressive actions, which brought about the only possible decision to recognize the state sovereignty and territorial integrity of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” he said. “Russia has a definitive leading position among Armenia’s foreign trade partners,” the source said adding that bilateral trade had grown 40% in 2005 and 70% in 2006. The tendency was fortified by a further 66% increase of trade to 821 million U.S. dollars in 2007. From January through July this year, trade grew almost 20% versus the same period of 2007 and stood at 400 million U.S. dollars. “Russian companies become the largest foreign investors in Armenian economy, as their accumulated investment has exceeded 1.3 billion U.S. dollars,” the source said. “The bulk of this investment streams to the energy sector, the banking business, mining and metallurgy, the construction industry, telecommunications, and information technologies.” “However, the energy sector remains the focal point for investors,” he said. “Work is underway to draft a medium-term agreement on Russian natural gas supplies to Armenia from 2009 through 2011, and efforts continue to set up a united economic facility on the basis of the operating and new units of the Razdan hydro power plant.” “Russian lending institutions show interest towards greater presence in Armenia’s banking system, and their share in the aggregate registered capital of Armenian banks has gotten over a 25% mark,” the source said. “In August 2007, the Russian diamond corporation ALROSA and the Armenian government signed an agreement on cooperation in diamond cutting and xxxelry making, and special steps will be made this year to develop cooperation in that area,” he said. “Cooperation in the nuclear power industry is moving to a quality new stage,” the source said. “Along with assistance to ensure safe operations of the Armenian nuclear plant, Russian companies are ready to take part in the supplementary prospecting and development of uranium ore deposits and construction of a new power unit at the plant.” “Our cooperation in the humanitarian sphere is developing dynamically, too, as cultural festivals in the format of the Year of Armenia in Russia and the Year of Russia in Armenia have turned into feasts of communication between the two peoples,” the source said. He added that Armenia is taking part in the programs of diversified humanitarian cooperation in the CIS format.

Source: http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....8773&PageNum=0

Sarksyan in Moscow before possible Gül visit

Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan is scheduled to pay an official visit to Russia today at the invitation of his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, the Kremlin announced yesterday in a brief statement. The timing of Sarkysan's visit is widely found to be meaningful, as it comes only days ahead of an expected visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gül to Yerevan. While Gül said over the weekend that he was still considering whether to accept an invitation from Sarksyan to watch together a World Cup qualifying game between the Armenian and Turkish national soccer teams on Saturday in Yerevan's Hrazdan Stadium, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated, also over the weekend, that Gül would respond positively to the invitation. Last week, Sarksyan's office announced that he would depart for Sochi on Tuesday for a working visit. "During the meeting the parties will discuss the future development of the Armenian-Russian strategic partnership and will dwell on issues of Armenia's forthcoming presidency of the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO]. The interlocutors will also discuss regional and international issues," his office also said then. Also this week, probably after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan today in İstanbul, a Turkish Foreign Ministry delegation will visit Yerevan to discuss a proposed platform for the troubled Caucasus. The Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, proposed by Turkey as a mechanism to develop conflict resolution methods among the Caucasus countries, is planned to be made up of Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Source: http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/de...1898&bolum=102

[D3ADSY]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Besides discussions concerning bilateral trade and the situation regarding Georgia I have a very strong feeling that the two presidents will be discussing Armenian-Turkish relations as well.

Do you feel this is something we should be wary of or something to be optimistic about? I feel optimistic but I am also aware that we have suffered the most at times throughout history where you can say we as a people were most optimistic.
Do you see this Caucasian alliance as a counter to the Eastern Partnership initiative? I know it goes beyond that, and my view is probably a very simplistic one but the Swedes keep bringing up the Eastern Partnership since the Georgian conflict.

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Lessons Learned From Georgia To Give Birth To '5 Amigos' of Caucasus?
by Jack Manuelian

Turkey has learned its lesson. On 21 August a Turkish newspaper reported: "Erdogan stated that the recent conflicts in the region has made the security climate in the Southern Caucasia very fragile and added: Turkey believes that everyone should use their energy to remove the animosities between [ALL] the peoples of the region." What Turkey has in mind now is the creation of "five amigos" of the Caucasus consisting of Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia galloping together and dancing on the same tune without fights or quarrels between them. Sadly this does not fit well with the West's plans of unipolar world hegemony. Erdogen's "Caucasian Stability and Partnership Platform" is a very brave move, it looks good and attractive on paper but its hard to be effective as long as Turkey remains a member of NATO; Azerbaijan a member of GUAM and Georgia remains without a pro-Russian government.

The Turks have come to realize that their blockade of tiny weak Armenia has brought them shame and condemnation from all over the world which has come to see them as a heartless race. If they did have a gram of nobility in them, seeing Armenia so desperate in need they would have at least given us a cup of cool drinking water and not bullets. First the Turks have to produce fruits of their nobility and goodwill then the friendly pacts and alliances will come naturally. Let them first open the border windows without any preconditions, then solutions and relations will flourish when the light starts shining through the open windows and doors.

Azerbaijan also did learn its lesson. For years now some of their leaders have been threatening Armenia with war and aggression, backing their threats with spending billions in armaments and training, with sporadic firing on Armenians. In the years to come such threats would stop and a welcome policy of reconciliation and rapprochement adopted which can herald a lasting peace in the region, specially when mutually agreed new-frontier-lines are drawn between Armenia-Karabagh and Azerbaijan, and boastful talks about 'liberation' are forgotten. Azerbaijan would benefit then greatly as they would not have to waste their billions on armaments, moreover they can have alternative shorter export routes for their oil & gas through Armenia.

If similar arrangements are made with Georgia and Abkhasia-South Ossetia; autonomy given to the Armenian populated regions in Georgia similar to that of Ajaria inside of Georgia, then Caucasus can truly turn to a humanitarian corridor of peace and prosperity for all concerned and for the world at large.

There is no doubt now that OSCE's efforts toward peace are not reliable and are limited to damage control and diplomatic approaches after the destruction runs its course. OSCE - Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe as a whole or in part was worthless in preventing the war in south Ossetia/ Georgia, hence they should not be trusted.
Russia, which is a member of OSCE, does not trust that organization. Presently Russia is laying a new peacekeeping protective zone around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a zone which will be manned by the Russian military, excluding OSCE and Georgian peacekeepers. The Russian Defense Ministry charged that OSCE observers (OSCE had nine military monitors in S Ossetia) knew about Georgia's attack of 8 Aug. 2008 beforehand and did nothing, not even inform the Russian peacekeepers many of whom were killed and wounded by the Georgian attack. Clearly those OSCE peacekeepers took the side of Georgia and betrayed Russia.

South Ossetians, who trusted nobody but themselves, have taught us a lesson. While their capital and its inhabitants, from elderly to children, were being destroyed by a massive-Georgian-brutal-rushing-attack south Ossetian fighters, in defense of their families hiding in the basements of their houses, continued pounding Georgian tanks inside their capital with rocket-launched grenades. If they did not resist so bravely Russia would have hesitated in intervention.

Another important lesson is the bias of the media in the West which was reporting the situation as a 'territorial dispute' instead of Georgia's use of deadly force and which kept referring to the conflict as "Russian aggression" rather than a proxy war by Georgia in behalf of US, Zionist Israel, Ukraine, NATO and EU. There was no mention of their stooge Mr. Saakashvili's attempt of genocide against some 70,000 south Ossetians, mostly Russian citizens living in their historical homes of whom, according to South Ossetia's Interior Ministry 2,100 people ( babies, children, women, elderly and men) were killed and 30,000 fled, and preliminary estimates as of 22 August were that of 100 billion rubles ($4.1 billion) in damage; all factories of S Ossetia being destroyed.

If Russia did not intervene so swiftly Saakashvili would have finished the south Ossetians for good and his genocide would have been complete. Indeed even the political leaders of the West were biased and hypocritical in their statements, a thing which made Putin exclaim: "They are seeing the black as white, and white as black!"

Georgia clearly committed a bloody terrorist act in order to finish with the S Ossetians, an aggression that did not bring them any honor rather a Russian backlash that put terror in hearts of all Georgians. The Gerorgians reaped what they did sow.

The West was positive that a 35,000 strong Georgian and mercenary army, trained and equiped by them, was capable in defeating some 5,000 invading Russian army and some 300 Spartan south Ossetian fighters. In five days of fighting their assessment proved wrong and convinced them how poor the West is militarily equipped and poorly trained.

Another chapter in the lesson is that the West is all words but no action when it comes to protecting its allies, while Russia backs its words with action. A new emerging strong Russia has materialized in the 21st century from the ashes of the destroyed Czarist and Khazar (Bolshevik) empires of old; shifting the global balance of power and drawing respect & admiration from the people of the world.

The West which has been planning a World war III against the Orient and Middle East for a long time has to give now second thoughts or even consider such a folly as they will end up in ashes and cinders by a much Russian stronger organized military of the Orient. No wonder after the Georgia disaster the West is considering withdrawing its troops from the Middle East and Afghanistan, and is showing some friendly gestures to Iran.

World peace can be achieved if the West acknowledges that it is twilight-time for them and the sun again rises from the East. Living out of time, in a unipolar fantasy world of its own making, the West spells trouble to the whole world. It's a suicidal act for the West to bang its head on 'the brick-wall of times and seasons' in defiance of God Almighty--the Lord of times & seasons. When the West ends up with a crushed bloody head there would be no one to blame but themselves.

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Lessons Learned From Georgia To Give Birth To '5 Amigos' of Caucasus?

by Jack Manuelian

Turkey has learned its lesson. On 21 August a Turkish newspaper reported: "Erdogan stated that the recent conflicts in the region has made the security climate in the Southern Caucasia very fragile and added: Turkey believes that everyone should use their energy to remove the animosities between [ALL] the peoples of the region." What Turkey has in mind now is the creation of "five amigos" of the Caucasus consisting of Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia galloping together and dancing on the same tune without fights or quarrels between them. Sadly this does not fit well with the West's plans of unipolar world hegemony. Erdogen's "Caucasian Stability and Partnership Platform" is a very brave move, it looks good and attractive on paper but its hard to be effective as long as Turkey remains a member of NATO; Azerbaijan a member of GUAM and Georgia remains without a pro-Russian government.

The Turks have come to realize that their blockade of tiny weak Armenia has brought them shame and condemnation from all over the world which has come to see them as a heartless race. If they did have a gram of nobility in them, seeing Armenia so desperate in need they would have at least given us a cup of cool drinking water and not bullets. First the Turks have to produce fruits of their nobility and goodwill then the friendly pacts and alliances will come naturally. Let them first open the border windows without any preconditions, then solutions and relations will flourish when the light starts shining through the open windows and doors.

Azerbaijan also did learn its lesson. For years now some of their leaders have been threatening Armenia with war and aggression, backing their threats with spending billions in armaments and training, with sporadic firing on Armenians. In the years to come such threats would stop and a welcome policy of reconciliation and rapprochement adopted which can herald a lasting peace in the region, specially when mutually agreed new-frontier-lines are drawn between Armenia-Karabagh and Azerbaijan, and boastful talks about 'liberation' are forgotten. Azerbaijan would benefit then greatly as they would not have to waste their billions on armaments, moreover they can have alternative shorter export routes for their oil & gas through Armenia.

If similar arrangements are made with Georgia and Abkhasia-South Ossetia; autonomy given to the Armenian populated regions in Georgia similar to that of Ajaria inside of Georgia, then Caucasus can truly turn to a humanitarian corridor of peace and prosperity for all concerned and for the world at large.

There is no doubt now that OSCE's efforts toward peace are not reliable and are limited to damage control and diplomatic approaches after the destruction runs its course. OSCE - Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe as a whole or in part was worthless in preventing the war in south Ossetia/ Georgia, hence they should not be trusted.
Russia, which is a member of OSCE, does not trust that organization. Presently Russia is laying a new peacekeeping protective zone around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a zone which will be manned by the Russian military, excluding OSCE and Georgian peacekeepers. The Russian Defense Ministry charged that OSCE observers (OSCE had nine military monitors in S Ossetia) knew about Georgia's attack of 8 Aug. 2008 beforehand and did nothing, not even inform the Russian peacekeepers many of whom were killed and wounded by the Georgian attack. Clearly those OSCE peacekeepers took the side of Georgia and betrayed Russia.

South Ossetians, who trusted nobody but themselves, have taught us a lesson. While their capital and its inhabitants, from elderly to children, were being destroyed by a massive-Georgian-brutal-rushing-attack south Ossetian fighters, in defense of their families hiding in the basements of their houses, continued pounding Georgian tanks inside their capital with rocket-launched grenades. If they did not resist so bravely Russia would have hesitated in intervention.

Another important lesson is the bias of the media in the West which was reporting the situation as a 'territorial dispute' instead of Georgia's use of deadly force and which kept referring to the conflict as "Russian aggression" rather than a proxy war by Georgia in behalf of US, Zionist Israel, Ukraine, NATO and EU. There was no mention of their stooge Mr. Saakashvili's attempt of genocide against some 70,000 south Ossetians, mostly Russian citizens living in their historical homes of whom, according to South Ossetia's Interior Ministry 2,100 people ( babies, children, women, elderly and men) were killed and 30,000 fled, and preliminary estimates as of 22 August were that of 100 billion rubles ($4.1 billion) in damage; all factories of S Ossetia being destroyed.

If Russia did not intervene so swiftly Saakashvili would have finished the south Ossetians for good and his genocide would have been complete. Indeed even the political leaders of the West were biased and hypocritical in their statements, a thing which made Putin exclaim: "They are seeing the black as white, and white as black!"

Georgia clearly committed a bloody terrorist act in order to finish with the S Ossetians, an aggression that did not bring them any honor rather a Russian backlash that put terror in hearts of all Georgians. The Gerorgians reaped what they did sow.

The West was positive that a 35,000 strong Georgian and mercenary army, trained and equiped by them, was capable in defeating some 5,000 invading Russian army and some 300 Spartan south Ossetian fighters. In five days of fighting their assessment proved wrong and convinced them how poor the West is militarily equipped and poorly trained.

Another chapter in the lesson is that the West is all words but no action when it comes to protecting its allies, while Russia backs its words with action. A new emerging strong Russia has materialized in the 21st century from the ashes of the destroyed Czarist and Khazar (Bolshevik) empires of old; shifting the global balance of power and drawing respect & admiration from the people of the world.

The West which has been planning a World war III against the Orient and Middle East for a long time has to give now second thoughts or even consider such a folly as they will end up in ashes and cinders by a much Russian stronger organized military of the Orient. No wonder after the Georgia disaster the West is considering withdrawing its troops from the Middle East and Afghanistan, and is showing some friendly gestures to Iran.

World peace can be achieved if the West acknowledges that it is twilight-time for them and the sun again rises from the East. Living out of time, in a unipolar fantasy world of its own making, the West spells trouble to the whole world. It's a suicidal act for the West to bang its head on 'the brick-wall of times and seasons' in defiance of God Almighty--the Lord of times & seasons. When the West ends up with a crushed bloody head there would be no one to blame but themselves.

http://www.panarmenian.net/library/eng/?nid=197

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Do you feel this is something we should be wary of or something to be optimistic about? I feel optimistic but I am also aware that we have suffered the most at times throughout history where you can say we as a people were most optimistic. Do you see this Caucasian alliance as a counter to the Eastern Partnership initiative? I know it goes beyond that, and my view is probably a very simplistic one but the Swedes keep bringing up the Eastern Partnership since the Georgian conflict.

It's a bit hard to be optimistic when one is discussing a nation that has Armenia's assets, or the lack of. As I said earlier, Turkey, as well as the other two Caucasus republics, have much more to offer Russia (and the West) than our tiny and landlocked republic. However, I'm not too worried about the recent development regarding Armenian-Turkish relations. While I realize that it's Moscow's self interests that are behind the recent warming of relations between Ankara and Yerevan, I also realize that Moscow has absolutely no interest in weakening the Armenian Republic. This is not 1921 and Bolsheviks do not occupy the Kremlin anymore. Days when Communists were giving away lands - like Crimea to Ukraine, Ossetia/Abkhazia to Georgia, Artsakh/Nakhijevan to Azerbaijan - are long gone. If anything, the Kremlin would be thinking about incorporating Armenia within its federation. And that, I have to admit, does not look too bad from my vantage point. Armenia cannot prosper under its current circumstances. To prosper, Yerevan has to be an intimate part of a bigger/wealthier entity. My biggest fear here is putting on-hold Armenia's land/reparation demands (genocide recognition) because in situations like this nations like Armenia don't have much say in what happens. I see the Caucasus Union (alliance) as Moscow's and Ankara's natural reaction to recent developments in Caucasus and the region's geopolitical shift, a new regional reality. Whether or not it will work, and what this will mean for Armenia, only time will tell. So, we all need to pray for good and hope for the best.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

U.S. warship met by anti-NATO protests in Ukraine's Sevastopol

The crew of U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Dallas, which arrived on Monday morning at the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol where Russia has a naval base, has refused to go ashore amid anti-NATO protests, customs officers said. The Dallas, which recently delivered humanitarian aid to Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi, docked at the Crimean port on the invitation of Kiev. The ship was met with thousands of protesters chanting "Yankees go home!" and waving banners with the slogan "NATO Stop!" The area around the ship has been cordoned off by police, with an anti-NATO picket nearby. Ukrainian customs officers who went on board the ship and met with the commander said the U.S. servicemen are refusing to leave the vessel on foot, but that buses could be provided so they can be given a tour of the city. Tensions between Russia and the West have been exacerbated by the build-up in the Black Sea of U.S. and NATO naval vessels delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia. In an apparent response, Russia sent a group of warships last week, including the Moskva missile cruiser, to Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia. Russia's Black Sea Fleet uses the Sevastopol base under agreements signed in 1997. Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko announced earlier this year that Ukraine would not extend the lease beyond 2017. Yushchenko signed a decree earlier this month requiring prior notice of all movements by Russian naval vessels and aircraft from the Sevastopol base in the Crimea. The decree is not has not yet come into force, but Russia views it as a provocation and is likely to resist any Ukrainian attempts to restrict the deployment of its navy.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080901/116450879.html

U.S. warship leaves Sevastopol after protests

The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas left Sevastopol Tuesday morning after anti-NATO protests in Ukraine's Crimean port. The Dallas, which recently delivered humanitarian aid to Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi, docked on Monday at the Crimean port, where Russia has a naval base, at the invitation of Kiev. The ship's arrival was met by thousands of anti-NATO protesters chanting "Yankees go home!" and waving banners with the slogan "NATO Stop!" Police cordoned off the area around the ship. Ukrainian customs officers who boarded the ship and met the commander said they had been prepared to lay on buses for the U.S. crew to give them a tour of the city, but apart from a few officers, no one left the vessel. Tensions between Russia and the West have been exacerbated by the build up in the Black Sea of U.S. and NATO naval vessels delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia. In an apparent response, Russia sent a group of warships last week, including the Moskva missile cruiser, to Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia. A Russian warship, the Smetlivy patroller, has meanwhile returned to Sevastopol after being involved in peacekeeping operations off the Abkhazian shore, a Russian Black Sea Fleet command source said. "Smetlivy returned to its base this morning. Everyone on board is safe and sound. A group of ships has remained near the Abkhazian shore to ensure the republic's maritime security," the source said. Most of Russia's naval group have returned to the Black Sea bases of Novorossiisk and Sevastopol. After a Russian ship patrolling Abkhazian waters sank a Georgian missile boat during armed conflict last month, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said Russian warships involved in the operation near Georgia could be prohibited from returning to Sevastopol. Russia's Black Sea Fleet uses the Sevastopol base under agreements signed in 1997. Ukrainian pro-NATO President Victor Yushchenko announced earlier this year that Ukraine would not extend the lease beyond 2017. Yushchenko signed a decree last month requiring prior notice of all movements by Russian naval vessels and aircraft from the Sevastopol base in the Crimea. Russia views it as a provocation and is likely to resist any Ukrainian attempts to restrict the deployment of its navy.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080902/116477984.html

Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov: "If we lose Sevastopol, we'll lose the Caucasus"

Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov is convinced that a new Black Sea Fleet agreement must signed with Ukraine. "I submitted a proposal to finish the new agreement by September. Russia needs to invite Ukraine to the table to consider this agreement," RIA Novosti quoted Luzhkov as stating. The Moscow mayor referred to Ukraine's recent actions as a "blatant disregard" for the present agreement due to the country's NATO aspirations. He added that Russia is "losing Sevastopol." "If we lose Sevastopol," said Luzhkov. "We'll lose the Caucasus." In May 2008, at a celebration marking the Black Sea Fleet's 225th anniversary, Luzhkov reiterated earlier calls to reintegrate Sevastopol and the Crimean Peninsula into Russia. "Sevastopol was never given to Ukraine," said Luzhkov. "I have carefully studied all the main documents." After the speech, Ukraine's security service declared Luzhkov persona non grata. Recently, Ukraine's government stated a new agreement must be signed with Moscow that will regulate such issues as the Black Sea Fleet's participation in armed conflicts and ensure Ukraine's soverign right to monitor the fleet while on Ukrainian territory. Several weeks ago, Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko signed an order stating the Black Sea Fleet's commanding officer must inform their Joint Chief of Staff if Russian ships plan to leave Ukrainian territory. Russia's Interior Ministry referred to the order as "another serious anti-Russian maneuver" breaking the agreement on cordial relations between Kiev and Moscow.

Source: http://www.kp.ru/daily/24155/370727/

In related news:

Putin vows 'an answer' to NATO ships near Georgia

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia will respond calmly to an increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea in the aftermath of the short war with Georgia, but promised that "there will be an answer." Russia has repeatedly complained that NATO has too many ships in the Black Sea. Foreign Ministry official Andrei Nesterenko said Tuesday that currently there are two U.S., one Polish, one Spanish and one German ship there. Russian officials say the United States could have delivered weapons to Georgia under the guise of humanitarian aid. "We don't understand what American ships are doing on the Georgian shores, but this is a question of taste, it's a decision by our American colleagues," he reportedly said. "The second question is why the humanitarian aid is being delivered on naval vessels armed with the newest rocket systems."

He said Russia's reaction to NATO ships "will be calm, without any sort of hysteria. But of course, there will be an answer," Interfax quoted Putin as saying during a visit to Uzbekistan. Asked by exactly what measures Russia would take, Putin was quoted as answering "You'll see." Separately, Russian officials criticized European threats to postpone talks on a partnership deal over the war in Georgia, but the Russian envoy to the EU said he was not surprised that the bloc declined to impose sanctions on Russia. "We are too interdependent," Vladimir Chizhov told reporters in Moscow. "Russia and the European Union are bound by destiny to be close partners." EU officials said Monday that unless Russian troops pull back from positions in Georgia, talks on the wide-ranging political and economic agreement would be delayed.

Britain and Eastern European nations held out for a tougher line, but Europe's dependence on Russian oil and natural gas deterred stronger sanctions. Putin's visit to Uzbekistan only highlighted that dependence: The Russian leader announces a new natural gas pipeline to cross Uzbekistan, strengthening Russian control over Central Asian gas exports to Europe and undermining Western-backed efforts for a rival trans-Caspian route. Criticizing the EU decision, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Russia had fulfilled "all of its commitments." He claimed efforts were under way to rebuild Georgia's armed forces, and said Georgian military forces were behind protests against Russian troops stationed in the country. "There are active attempts to restore the activity of Georgian troops," he said. "Yesterday, there were rallies and provocations near the town of Kapoleti targeting Russian troops. We believe they were organized by Georgian special services."

Georgian officials could not be immediately reached for comment on the claim. "Naturally, we cannot agree with a number of biased statements regarding Russia in the final declaration of the summit, including the assertion that our reaction to the Georgian aggression was disproportionate," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "The main thing, however, is that they are in the minority and the majority of EU countries have manifested a responsible approach and confirmed their intention to continue the partnership with Russia," the ministry said. On Aug. 7, Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia, hoping to retake the province, which broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s. Russian forces repelled the offensive and pushed into Georgia. Both sides signed a cease-fire deal in mid-August, but Russia has ignored its requirement for all forces to return to prewar positions. Moscow insists the cease-fire accord lets it run checkpoints in security zones of up to 4 miles into Georgian territory.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/...russia_georgia

[Lucin]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It's a bit hard to be optimistic when one is discussing a nation that has Armenia's assets, or the lack of. As I said earlier, Turkey, as well as the other two Caucasus republics, have much more to offer Russia (and the West) than our tiny and landlocked republic. However, I'm not too worried about the recent development regarding Armenian-Turkish relations. While I realize that it's Moscow's self interests that are behind the recent warming of relations between Ankara and Yerevan, I also realize that Moscow has absolutely no interest in weakening the Armenian Republic. This is not 1921 and Bolsheviks do not occupy the Kremlin anymore. Days when Communists were giving away lands - like Crimea to Ukraine, Ossetia/Abkhazia to Georgia, Artsakh/Nakhijevan to Azerbaijan - are long gone. If anything, the Kremlin would be thinking about incorporating Armenia within its federation. And that, I have to admit, does not look too bad from my vantage point. Armenia cannot prosper under its current circumstances. To prosper, Yerevan has to be an intimate part of a bigger/wealthier entity. My biggest fear here is putting on-hold Armenia's land/reparation demands (genocide recognition) because in situations like this nations like Armenia don't have much say in what happens...

This is my biggest fear too. I do not see how this so-called Caucasus "union" or plans for normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey and opening the border would benefit Armenia. So with that said, if Armenia 'disobeys' Moscow (considering Russia is behind all this) and makes her realize of her unwillingness to engage in such a scenario, how can Moscow retaliate? Not a big deal anyway; it's not like Armenia is turning her back to Russia and looking to the West like Georgia did.