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The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Originally posted by yerazhishda View Post
    Man I thought this whole Russia-Georgia conflict was going to be smooth sailing for Armenia but no. Georgia is considering closing the border which means restricted trade between Armenia and Russia. This cannot be good for the economy.


    If georgia closes the border with Russia, maybe we can trade through Abkhazia? Of course the georgians wouldn't like that, so it would have to be by air, which is more expensive than shipping on water.
    For the first time in more than 600 years, Armenia is free and independent, and we are therefore obligated
    to place our national interests ahead of our personal gains or aspirations.



    http://www.armenianhighland.com/main.html

    Comment


    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

      Originally posted by yerazhishda View Post
      Man I thought this whole Russia-Georgia conflict was going to be smooth sailing for Armenia but no. Georgia is considering closing the border which means restricted trade between Armenia and Russia. This cannot be good for the economy.
      Forget about Georgia, they will not close their border with Armenia. My biggest fear is a Turkish-Russian alliance, although very unlikely. With EU membership looking impossible to obtain, with US/Israel supporting a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, Ankara may begin looking north to Moscow. Some of Ankara's statments during the Russia-Georgia war (which could be interpreted as pro-Russian) were curious. The troubling reality is that Ankara has much more to offer Moscow than Armenia. As a result, a Turkish-Russian alliance is not impossible to imagine (although highly unlikely). However, regardless of Moscow's relations with Ankara, Moscow would still need a viable Armenia in the Caucasus.
      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

      Նժդեհ


      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

        Originally posted by Armenian View Post
        Forget about Georgia, they will not close their border with Armenia. My biggest fear is a Turkish-Russian alliance, although very unlikely. With EU membership looking impossible to obtain, with US/Israel supporting a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, Ankara may begin looking north to Moscow. Some of Ankara's statments during the Russia-Georgia war (which could be interpreted as pro-Russian) were curious. The troubling reality is that Ankara has much more to offer Moscow than Armenia. As a result, a Turkish-Russian alliance is not impossible to imagine (although highly unlikely). However, regardless of Moscow's relations with Ankara, Moscow would still need a viable Armenia in the Caucasus.
        If Russia betray's us it's time to shift sides and find new friends. When Turkey and Russia grow closer so will Azerbajan and Russia grow closer. Than it's time to give Russia the finger and hang around with the eagle. That will be the only option left for us.

        Comment


        • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

          Originally posted by Armenian View Post
          Forget about Georgia, they will not close their border with Armenia. My biggest fear is a Turkish-Russian alliance, although very unlikely. With EU membership looking impossible to obtain, with US/Israel supporting a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, Ankara may begin looking north to Moscow. Some of Ankara's statments during the Russia-Georgia war (which could be interpreted as pro-Russian) were curious. The troubling reality is that Ankara has much more to offer Moscow than Armenia. As a result, a Turkish-Russian alliance is not impossible to imagine (although highly unlikely). However, regardless of Moscow's relations with Ankara, Moscow would still need a viable Armenia in the Caucasus.
          I hope history does not repeat itself with a shift of 90 years. As for eagle, heh we just saw what eagle does to its allies.

          Comment


          • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

            Originally posted by KarotheGreat View Post
            If Russia betray's us it's time to shift sides and find new friends. When Turkey and Russia grow closer so will Azerbajan and Russia grow closer. Than it's time to give Russia the finger and hang around with the eagle. That will be the only option left for us.
            I was beeing a bit hypothetical. A Russia-Turkish alliance is not going to happen. Economically and politically, Turkey is greatly dependent on the West for survival, much like how Armenia is greatly dependent on Russia for its survival. The western elite and Israel/Jews still control Turkish power brokers, there is still a potential Islamic problem in Turkey, Russia still has ties to the PKK in Turkey, Turkey still has ties to insurgents in Chechnya. Turkey and Russia have been historic competitors for regional assests and they have a very long and bloody history of war between them. However, even if such an alliance did evolve, that would not necessarily mean the end of Armenia. Nonetheless, even with a hypothetical Russian-Turkish alliance, Armenia would 'not' be able to join the West, such a move would be suicidal.
            Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

            Նժդեհ


            Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

            Comment


            • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

              NATO Ships in Black Sea Raise Alarms in Russia



              Russian commanders said Wednesday that they were growing alarmed at the number of NATO warships sailing into the Black Sea, saying that NATO vessels now outnumbered the ships in their fleet anchored off the western coast of Georgia. As attention turned to the balance of naval power in the sea, the leader of the separatist region of Abkhazia said he would invite Russia to establish a naval base at Sukhumi, a deep-water port in the territory. But in a move certain to anger Russia, Ukraine’s president, Viktor A. Yushchenko, said he would open negotiations with Moscow on raising the rent on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, which is in Crimea, a predominantly Russian province of Ukraine. The United States was pursuing a delicate policy of delivering humanitarian aid on military transport planes and ships, apparently to illustrate to the Russians that they do not fully control Georgia’s airspace or coastline.

              The policy has left American and Russian naval vessels maneuvering in close proximity off the western coast of Georgia, with the Americans concentrated near the southern port of Batumi and the Russians around the central port of Poti. It has also left the Kremlin deeply suspicious of American motives. “What the Americans call humanitarian cargoes — of course, they are bringing in weapons,” President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia told the BBC in an interview on Tuesday, adding, “We’re not trying to prevent it.” The White House dismissed all assertions that the Pentagon was shipping weapons under the “guise” of humanitarian aid, as the state-controlled news media put it, calling them “ridiculous.” Apparently testing Russian assurances that their forces have opened the port of Poti for humanitarian aid, the United States Embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, said a Coast Guard cutter, the Dallas, would try to dock there on Wednesday, well within a zone controlled by the Russian military during the war. The Dallas, however, docked instead at Batumi, to the south. It was carrying 34 tons of humanitarian aid.

              Georgian military officials said the other port might have been mined, The Associated Press reported. During the conflict with Georgia, Russian soldiers occupied the port of Ponti and sank Georgian ships in the harbor. Russian officials have said that their forces are now out of the city, but that they are still occupying positions at checkpoints just to the north. Russian ships are also patrolling off the coast. NATO on Wednesday called on Russia to reverse its decision to recognize two rebel Georgian regions and urged it to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France said in a speech to the French diplomatic corps that no one wanted another cold war and called on Russia to pull back its forces to positions they held before the current conflict with Georgia. “NATO is not an adversary but a partner of Russia,” he added. “As for the European Union, it seeks to build with this country a close and positive relation. It is for Russia today to make a fundamental choice.”

              Russia continued to dismiss Western criticism, with Mr. Medvedev defending Russia’s actions as necessary to protect against a “genocide” by the Georgian armed forces in South Ossetia. In Moscow, the agriculture minister, Aleksei Gordeyev, told reporters that Russia could cut poultry and pork import quotas by hundreds of thousands of tons, the news agency Itar-Tass said. The Kremlin also kept up efforts to build support for its actions in Georgia, although with little result. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry broke a long silence from Beijing by saying that China was concerned about “the latest development in South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Agence-France Presse reported. And the Russian ambassador to Macedonia told reporters that he had asked the authorities there to recognize the two breakaway Georgian regions, though Russia has pledged not to force any states to recognize them. Macedonia itself broke away from Yugoslavia, when that country disintegrated in the 1990s.

              In Moscow, the naval maneuvering was clearly raising alarms. Russian commanders said the buildup of NATO vessels in the Black Sea violated a 1936 treaty, the Montreux Convention, which they maintain limits to three weeks the time noncoastal countries can sail military vessels on the sea. Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, said at a briefing in Moscow that under the agreement, Turkey, which controls the straits of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, must be notified 15 days before military ships sail into the sea, and that warships could not remain longer than 21 days. “The convention stipulates a limited number of vessels,” he said. “That is, the same state cannot deploy a certain group without any limit.” He said any sustained NATO deployment would require rotating ships through the straits. It was unclear on Wednesday how many NATO ships were currently in the Black Sea.

              A spokesman at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, in Mons, Belgium, said there were four NATO warships there on a previously scheduled exercise called Active Endeavor, for training in antiterrorist and anti-pirate maneuvers. But he cautioned that other NATO countries could have ships in the sea not operating under NATO command. “Obviously, there are other NATO-affiliated nations out doing things,” Lt. Col. Web Wright, the spokesman, said. “But I can’t speak for those nations.” The United States guided missile destroyer McFaul, for example, docked over the weekend in Batumi to deliver humanitarian aid. A report by the Russian news agency Interfax cited this ship, along with three others, as operating in the sea, though it was unclear whether it referred to vessels taking part in the previously scheduled exercise.

              Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/28/wo.../28russia.html

              Russia steps up security of its navy facilities in Ukraine



              Russia's Black Sea Fleet has stepped up security at its facilities in Ukraine to deter possible provocative acts, a senior navy official said Thursday. "Intelligence reports said authorities and a number of well-known public organizations in Ukraine plan actions against the Black Sea Fleet's navigation and hydrographic support facilities," said Cap. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo, an aide to Russia's navy commander. Dygalo said the fleet is enhancing security measures at the facilities to ensure their uninterrupted operation and safe navigation. The official said that such provocative actions would be illegal and in breach of the 1997 agreements on the lease by Russia of its Black Sea Fleet's naval base in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

              He added that such steps, if implemented, would harm talks in a Russian-Ukrainian sub-commission on the operation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine. "The purpose of this sub-commission is to discuss any problems that might occur in a civilized manner. Decisions by local Ukrainian judicial institutions have no legal power in relation to Russian Black Sea Fleet facilities, and attempts by public movements and organizations to obstruct the operation of these facilities would cause extra tension in the region, where the Black Sea Fleet is located," Dygalo said. Frequent disputes have flared up between Russia and Ukraine over the lease of naval facilities on the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian bailiffs have made several attempts to seize the headquarters of the Russian fleet's hydrographic service in Sevastopol and radio navigation facilities over the last few years.

              The ownership of lighthouses, and the rent Russia pays for them, is one of the main ongoing disputes between the ex-Soviet neighbors. Under bilateral agreements, Russia's Black Sea Fleet uses the Sevastopol base until 2017. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko recently announced that Ukraine would not extend the lease beyond the date. In early June, Russia's lower house of parliament adopted a resolution saying the Russian-Ukrainian cooperation treaty could be denounced if Ukraine joins NATO. To Russia's annoyance, Ukraine's pro-Western leadership has been pursuing NATO membership since Yushchenko's 2004 election. Ukraine failed to secure an agreement on a NATO Membership Action Plan, a key step toward joining the alliance, at the organization's summit in April, but was told the decision would be reviewed in December.

              Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080828/116359212.html

              In related news:

              Russia warns Turkey on U.S. ships in Black Sea


              Russia said U.S. ships could only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days according to the Montreux Convention, and warned if they do not leave by then Turkey would be responsible. Russia's deputy military chief Anatoly Nogovitsyn said the NATO warships' entrance to the Black Sea is a "serious threat to our security," Hurriyet daily reported on Thursday. He said under the Montreux Convention, signed in 1936 on the status of the Turkish Straits, the warships can only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days. "If the NATO ships continue to stay in the Black Sea after the expiration of 21 day-period, then I would like to remind you that Turkey would be responsible," he added. The U.S. warships are spearheading a humanitarian aid mission to Georgia, a U.S. ally that wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Clashes erupted in the Caucasus after Russia responded to Georgia's military operation to regain the control in the breakaway region South Osstia. The U.S. ships are carrying nuclear missiles that can hit Russian targets as far away as St. Petersburg, Nogovitsyn said, according to Hurriyet. Russia has dispatched its own ships to track the U.S. vessels, the newspaper said.

              Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/h...6567.asp?scr=1

              Russia tests long-range missile as tensions mount


              Russia successfully tested a long- range Topol missile designed to avoid detection by anti-missile defence systems from its Plesetsk launch site, a Russian military spokesman said yesterday. "The launch was specially tasked to test the missile's capability to avoid ground-based detection systems," said Colonel Alexander Vovk of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. Washington and Warsaw formally signed a deal last week to station elements of a US missile defense shield in Poland, a move that has aggravated Russian- Western tensions already raw from Moscow's intervention in Georgia. Russia has heaped scorn on the missile defence system, which the United States says is aimed at Iran, and through its Foreign Ministry last week vowed "to react, and not only through diplomatic protests." The RS-12M Topol, called the SS-25 Sickle by NATO, has a maximum range of 10,000 km and can carry one 550-kilotonne warhead. NATO yesterday rejected Russian criticism of its decision to send navy ships to the Black Sea, saying the five vessels there - from the United States, Spain, Germany and Poland - are on a routine exercise far from the coast of Georgia. The exercises were organized before Russia's military offensive in Georgia on August 8 to rebuff a Georgian attempt to retake breakaway South Ossetia. Russia has linked the visit of NATO warships to a delivery of aid to Georgia by two other US ships and accused NATO of a naval build- up in the Black Sea in violation of international agreements.

              Source: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_d...721&con_type=1
              Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

              Նժդեհ


              Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                Russia 'could destroy NATO ships in Black Sea within 20 minutes'



                Russia's Black Sea Fleet is capable of destroying NATO's naval strike group currently deployed in the sea within 20 minutes, a former fleet commander said on Friday. Russia's General Staff said on Tuesday there were 10 NATO ships in the Black Sea - three U.S. warships, the Polish frigate General Pulaski, the German frigate FGS Lubeck, and the Spanish guided missile frigate Admiral Juan de Borbon, as well as four Turkish vessels. Eight more warships are expected to join the group. "Despite the apparent strength, the NATO naval group in the Black Sea is not battle-worthy," Admiral Eduard Baltin said. "If necessary, a single missile salvo from the Moskva missile cruiser and two or three missile boats would be enough to annihilate the entire group." "Within 20 minutes the waters would be clear," he said, stressing that despite major reductions, the Black Sea Fleet (Image gallery) still has a formidable missile arsenal. However, Baltin said the chances of a military confrontation between NATO and Russia in the Black Sea are negligible. "We will not strike first, and they do not look like people with suicidal tendencies," he said. In addition to its flagship, the Moskva guided missile cruiser, Russia's Black Sea Fleet includes at least three destroyers, two guided missile frigates, four guided missile corvettes and six missile boats. NATO announced its decision to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia after the conclusion of hostilities between Tbilisi and Moscow over breakaway South Ossetia on August 12. Moscow recognized on Tuesday both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another breakaway Georgia republic, despite being urged by Western leaders not to do so. Russia's General Staff later said the alliance's naval deployment in the Black Sea "cannot fail to provoke concern", with unidentified sources in the Russian military saying a surface strike group was being gathered there. According to Russian military intelligence sources, the NATO warships that have entered the Black Sea are between them carrying over 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

                Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080829/116377956.html

                Russia's Topol ICBM hits target with new warhead in test launch



                A Russian Topol strategic missile test-launched on Thursday from the Plesetsk space center has successfully hit a designated target on the Kamchatka peninsula, a Strategic Missile Forces spokesman said. A joint team from SMF and Space Forces fired an RS-12M (SS-25 Sickle) ICBM at 14.36 Moscow time (10.36 GMT) from the Plesetsk space center in a launch that tested not only the performance characteristics of the missile but also the capabilities of a new warhead to penetrate strong missile defenses. "An experimental warhead hit a target at a testing range on the Kamchatka peninsula with high precision, demonstrating its capability to deliver pinpoint strikes on well-defended targets," Col. Alexander Vovk said. The missile, whose service life was extended to 21 years last year, covered a distance of about 6,000 kilometers (over 3,700 miles) before it hit the target. "The performance data gathered during the test launch will be used to increase the effectiveness of future Russian mobile ballistic missile units," Vovk said, adding that the Topol ICBM remains the core of the Russian mobile strategic missile forces. Russia has been enhancing the performance characteristics of its ballistic missiles in response to U.S. plans to place a missile-defense shield in central Europe near Russian borders. Vovk said that judging from experience the most economical and quickly achievable countermeasures against the deployment of missile-defense systems are the so-called asymmetrical measures. "These measures include enhanced "stealth" capability, a variability of flight trajectory and the use of warheads capable of penetrating any missile shield," he said. The RS-12M Topol has a maximum range of 10,000 km (6,125 miles) and can carry a single 550-kiloton nuclear warhead. The missile was last tested on December 8, 2007.

                Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080828/116349686.html
                Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

                Նժդեհ


                Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

                Comment


                • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                  Originally posted by Armenian View Post
                  Forget about Georgia, they will not close their border with Armenia. My biggest fear is a Turkish-Russian alliance, although very unlikely. With EU membership looking impossible to obtain, with US/Israel supporting a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, Ankara may begin looking north to Moscow. Some of Ankara's statments during the Russia-Georgia war (which could be interpreted as pro-Russian) were curious. The troubling reality is that Ankara has much more to offer Moscow than Armenia. As a result, a Turkish-Russian alliance is not impossible to imagine (although highly unlikely). However, regardless of Moscow's relations with Ankara, Moscow would still need a viable Armenia in the Caucasus.

                  Apparently, Sarkissian has reaffirmed once again his invitation of the Turkish President to Armenia. His constant insistence, his helpless rhetoric sounds at best ridiculous not to mention his "let's get together…" mentality, 'we are friends', 'we have a lot in common', etc. I'm afraid not only, this kind of approach will not do anything good to Armenia; but also from a psychological point of view it's going to have an adverse effect on our Cause and on our people's mindset by gradually turning them into a bunch of emotionless, indifferent beings towards the neighbouring beasts, much like how the Greeks have become…
                  Last edited by Lucin; 08-30-2008, 05:45 AM.

                  Comment


                  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                    Ruble Up As Firms Pay Taxes

                    28 August 2008

                    The ruble snapped a three-day decline against the dollar as Russian companies with income in foreign currencies bought rubles to meet a tax deadline and as concern that credit-market losses will widen pushed the U.S. currency lower.

                    The Russian currency rebounded from an almost seven-month low to the dollar as local firms purchased rubles to pay a total 230 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) of taxes due Thursday, said Alexei Moiseyev, head of fixed-income research at Renaissance Capital.

                    "Tax payments are one of the reasons why the ruble has come back a bit," he said. "Another is that the dollar is weak and so investors are looking for other places to put their money."

                    The ruble rose to 24.6094 per dollar by 5:44 p.m. in Moscow, from 24.6621 Tuesday, when it slid to 24.7676, its weakest level since February. It fell 0.3 percent to 36.2538 per euro.

                    The dollar slipped from a six-month high versus the euro as oil rose and after the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the number of problem banks has increased to the most in five years as a result of turmoil in credit markets.

                    The ruble was steady at 29.8508 to the dollar/euro basket.
                    Many export-driven natural resource companies make the bulk of their earnings in dollars.
                    "That necessitates them having to change it over to pay tax,'' said Moiseyev, who forecasts the ruble will rise to 29 versus the basket by year end.





                    Russian monetary base up $839 mln in week to $185.7 bln

                    10:00 | 29/ 08/ 2008

                    MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Central Bank said Friday the country's narrowly defined money supply (M1) was 4 trillion 559.7 billion rubles ($185.7 billion at the current exchange rate) as of August 25, up 20.6 billion rubles ($839 million) in the week since August 18.

                    According to the Bank, M1 money supply consists of the currency issued by the bank, including cash in vaults of credit institutions, and required reserves balances on ruble deposits with the Central Bank.

                    MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Central Bank said Friday the country's narrowly defined money supply (M1) was 4 trillion 559.7 billion rubles ($185.7 billion at the current exchange rate) as of August 25, up 20.6 billion rubles...

                    Comment


                    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                      Originally posted by Eric View Post
                      I hope history does not repeat itself with a shift of 90 years. As for eagle, heh we just saw what eagle does to its allies.
                      Regardless of Moscow's attitude towards Turkey, Armenia will continue playing a vital strategic role in Russia's political affairs. I really can't see a situation in the foreseeable future where Armenia would become disposable for Moscow.

                      Originally posted by Lucin View Post
                      Apparently, Sarkissian has reaffirmed once again his invitation of the Turkish President to Armenia. His constant insistence, his helpless rhetoric sounds at best ridiculous not to mention his "let's get together…" mentality, 'we are friends', 'we have a lot in common', etc. I'm afraid not only, this kind of approach will not do anything good to Armenia; but also from a psychological point of view it's going to have an adverse effect on our Cause and on our people's mindset by gradually turning them into a bunch of emotionless, indifferent beings towards the neighbouring beasts, much like how the Greeks have become…
                      Lucin jan, we don't know what is transpiring behind the scenes in Yerevan, Moscow, Washington or Ankara. So, let's please give it some time before we begin forcasting doom and gloom for Armenia. As I said previously, Sargsyan's move regarding Turkey is being orchestrated by Moscow. It seems as if Moscow is attempting to drive a wedge between the West and Turkey and one of the tools they seem to be using is Armenia, the other being oil/gas/trade. Nonetheless, what is happening in the world currently is a bit beyond our national "cause" which, by international standards, is a bit insignificant. Make no mistake about it, the global community is on the brink of a major world war. Do you honestly think that our national interests would matter in such a situation? We Armenians think too damn highly of ourselves, sometimes to our detriment. Please take a close look at Armenia's geopolitical/socioeconomic stature before you demand things from the global community. Let's say, God forbid, Turkey and Russia decided to form a union, what in the world can Armenia do to stop it or fight it? To survive in such a case, official Yerevan would have to forget 'all' of its interests and simply pray/hope that its neighbors don't decide to do away with Armenia. So, what cause, what peoples mindsets, are you talking about? The hard reality is that Armenia (tiny, resourceless, impoverished, embattled, landlocked) exists today at the mercy of foreign powers, specifically at the mercy of Moscow. Before we demand things from our politicians let's first realize this hard reality.

                      There is another perspective to all this:

                      Turkey's lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with the Russian Federation was adversely effected due to the war in Georgia. Turkey also imports a majority of its oil and gas via Russia and Georgia. So now, with the Georgian-Russian border now effectively shutdown for the foreseeable future, with the entire Black Sea region a highly volatile powder keg, Ankara is in a very serious panic. Ankara is stuck between two very powerful forces, Washington and Moscow. As a result, it has a lot to lose in all this. Politicians in Moscow, on their part, do not want to see their lucrative trade with Ankar suffering either. As a result, Turkey and Russia are most probably attempting to seek an alternative transit route for their trade. Needless-to-state, as a result of the current war between Georgia and Russia, Armenia is ideally positioned to be this alternative conduit for trade, even perhaps a transit route for future gas/oil distribution. So, if and when Ankara and Yerevan begin talking, expect Baku to eventually jump in as well. I don't think this situation will have a negative impact on the status of Nagorno Karabagh. Worst case scenario, Armenia's genocide recognition pursuit would be placed on hold. Nonetheless, the near future holds many surprises.

                      So, with this in mind; Most probably, when Sargsyan was in Moscow last month he was told by Kremlin officials about what was about to happen in Georgia. That is why Sargsyan officially reached his hand out to Ankara. Ankara reciprocated with their "Caucasus Union" proposal that envisoned Armenia as a member. Obviously, there are forces both in Ankara and Yerevan that do not want rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia to occur. Nevertheless, official Yerevan is now in a unique position to make Armenia a transit corridor for Russian-Turkish trade. International trade (serious business) is, in essense, what this is all about.

                      The following news report from Turkey may be the clue:

                      Principle of reciprocity exists in Turk-Russia relations


                      Turkey's justice minister said on Saturday that there was a principle of reciprocity in interstate relations with Russia. Turkish Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin said that there were some problems with the movement of Turkish exports to Russia, and that a law of reciprocity was in effect between states. "Therefore, if a country behaves unjustly against us, we have the right to impose similar sanctions against that country," Sahin told reporters after Aug. 30 Victory Day celebrations in the Mediterranean city of Antalya. Sahin said that negative developments in the Caucasus had affected the entire region, and expressed Turkey's determination to continue working for peace and tranquility. The minister said that Turkey was facing problems in its exports to Russia, and expressed his belief that common sense would prevail. More than 100 trucks, transporting mostly consumer goods such as clothing, food and construction materials, are being held up at customs posts for up to four weeks at border crossings in Novorossiysk, Sochi and Taganrog, on Ukraine's border with Russia. Turkish exporters face the risk losing the market due to delayed orders and are also obliged to pay a waiting bill, as much as 1,000 euros per truck per day. The Turkish Trade Ministry had earlier estimated that the truck delays could cost Turkey as much as $3 billion in export revenues.

                      NATO SHIPS

                      On the NATO ships, Sahin reiterated the remarks of NATO secretary general that the ships would abide by the agreement governing the passage of foreign warships through the Turkish straits and leave the Black Sea within 21 days, and said that this statement must be respected. Russia had warned Turkey that it would be held responsible if the U.S. ships currently in the Black Sea stayed beyond the 21 days allowed under the Montreux Convention and said the entrance of NATO warships to the Black Sea was a serious threat to its security. NATO warships belonging to NATO members Spain, Poland and Germany, and U.S together with Turkey attended in Black Sea for long-planned exercises and routine visits to ports in Romania and Bulgaria. While, two more ships of the U.S. navy, which brought humanitarian aid to Georgia also exist in Black Sea at the moment. Sahin also said that the problem should be solved peacefully as soon as possible.

                      Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/d...3394.asp?scr=1
                      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

                      Նժդեհ


                      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

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