The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I doubt there would be any military action by the west against Armenia because they know we have little choice over the matter but a war in the region could be dangerous indeed for us because we are surrounded by a great number of enemies. A stronger Russian presense in the region may be a good thing for Armenia but the illusion of independence will continue to be just that-an illusion. Non of the south caucus states can be independent for now. As for the article i posted i have to say that i also thought an attack on Iran would be foolish by the west but the facts on the ground seem to be telling another story or atleast a related one anyways. Moscow is not amassing thousends of troops and hardware to the region because it thinks there is going to be nothing but peace there. Countries like the USA and Israel are hardly rational in their decision making with special interest always getting its way in the USA. All of this means anything possible. If war breaksout Armenia is in a much better situation then it was in the previous war but so are its enemies. I have said it befor that armenias situation is a unenviable one and continues to stay that way.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I had this wild, crazy thought: What if Russia gets the green light to take back the Caucasus and Central Asia if it doesn't meddle in Iran? That way both the West and Russia are happy and no one important gets hurt.
What would happen to Armenia in a situation like that?

[Mos]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Do you think If Russia was to get directly involved, there would ever be any military retaliation against Armenia by the west for simply allowing Russia to move through it.

Well I highly doubt the West would attack Armenia. But if it did, yes Russia would come to our aid, it's bound by a military agreement and the West knows this.

I doubt there would be any military action by the west against Armenia because they know we have little choice over the matter but a war in the region could be dangerous indeed for us because we are surrounded by a great number of enemies. A stronger Russian presense in the region may be a good thing for Armenia but the illusion of independence will continue to be just that-an illusion. Non of the south caucus states can be independent for now. As for the article i posted i have to say that i also thought an attack on Iran would be foolish by the west but the facts on the ground seem to be telling another story or atleast a related one anyways. Moscow is not amassing thousends of troops and hardware to the region because it thinks there is going to be nothing but peace there. Countries like the USA and Israel are hardly rational in their decision making with special interest always getting its way in the USA. All of this means anything possible. If war breaksout Armenia is in a much better situation then it was in the previous war but so are its enemies. I have said it befor that armenias situation is a unenviable one and continues to stay that way.

South Caucasus is Russia's backyard. Any realistic actor realises this. The West to an extent tries to respect that probably in return for Russia respecting the West's backyards. For example, the West let Georgia alone during the 2008 war. The Western strategic choice in the South Caucasus is aligned with the Turkish axis, so there's no doubt what are strategic choice should be. Of course we can still hold normal relations with the West.

I had this wild, crazy thought: What if Russia gets the green light to take back the Caucasus and Central Asia if it doesn't meddle in Iran? That way both the West and Russia are happy and no one important gets hurt.
What would happen to Armenia in a situation like that?

I doubt the West would allow Russia to take back oil/gas rich Central Asia.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

ISRAELI REPORT: RUSSIA TAKING PREEMPTIVE STEPS TO BLOCK POSSIBLE STRIKE ON IRAN

FARS News Agency
April 9, 2012 Monday
Iran

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Israeli media said Russia has made a series of rather
preemptive moves to block a possible US-Israeli strike on Iran from
the North.

Israel's debkafile said in a report that after blocking the way
to direct Western and Arab military intervention in Syria through
the Mediterranean, Russia sent its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
last week on a round trip to the capitals of Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan - an expedition designed to
secure Iran against a potential US/Israeli attack via its Northern
and Eastern neighbors.

On his return to Moscow, April 6, the Russian army let it be known
that highly-advanced mobile S-400 surface-to-air missiles had been
moved into Kaliningrad, the Baltic enclave bordered by Poland and
Lithuania, its response to US plans for an anti-Iran missile shield
system in Europe and the Middle East.

In Yerevan, the Russian minister finalized a deal for the establishment
of an advanced Russian radar station in the Armenian mountains to
counter the US radar set up at the Turkish Kurecik air base, the
Israeli website said quoting military sources.

Just as the Turkish station (notwithstanding Ankara's denials) will
trade data on incoming Iranian missiles with the US station in the
Israeli Negev, the Russian station in Armenia will share input with
Tehran, it said.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

People like this is why i say the USA often acts for special interest and against its own interests and why you never know if it will act rationaly or not.
AZERI-ISRAELI AIR BASE DEAL OUTED BY US
by Mark Impomeni

Human Events (Conservative Voices)

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=50747

April 10 2012

Azerbaijan is surrounded on three sides by openly hostile or
unpredictable regimes in Armenia, Russia, and Iran. Armenian troops
continue to occupy large sections of Azerbaijan in the disputed region
of Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran's slow-motion but determined pursuit of
nuclear weapons is a continual source of instability in the Caucasus,
and Russia continues to be led by men nostalgic for the Soviet era.

Only the Caspian Sea to the east offers a relatively tranquil border,
while providing Baku mineral riches in oil and gas. Beset by turmoil
in almost every direction, Azerbaijan has increasingly looked beyond
its immediate neighbors for investment, economic diversification,
and - more recently - defense.

Last month, Israeli sources confirmed that Baku agreed to buy $1.6
billion in missile defense, anti-aircraft weaponry, and reconnaissance
drones from the state-run Israel Aerospace Industries. The deal,
undertaken at the height of tensions and saber rattling over potential
Israeli air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, underscores Azerbaijan's
determination to more closely identify with the West. That a majority
Muslim nation located within easy range of Iran's nuclear facilities
in Tehran and at Natanz, Qom, and Arak, would engage with the Islamic
Republic's mortal enemy is nothing short of remarkable.

Officially, Israel downplayed the significance of the arms deal,
saying that such international agreements take years to develop. But
a former head of the Mossad spy agency acknowledged the deal's obvious
geopolitical implications. Telling the Associated Press that Israel has
been and will continue to sell arms to friendly nations, Danny Yatom
added, "If it will help us in challenging Iran, it is for the better."

Then last month, Foreign Policy published a bombshell report sourced
to senior U.S. administration and intelligence officials alleging
that the nature of the Israeli-Azeri relationship goes much deeper
than buyer-dealer in military hardware. Administration officials
suggested that Azerbaijan has granted access to airbases - plural -
on Iran's northern border. "The Israelis have bought an airfield,"
the report quotes one senior administration official, "and the airfield
is called Azerbaijan."

Azeri airfields - either for staging attacks, landing after conducting
the raids, or positioning forward units such as search and rescue
teams - would greatly enhance Israel's reach and logistical ability
to hit targets deep inside Iran. Although Baku denied that it would
allow Israel to attack Iran from its territory, the FP notes that
Azeri officials did not specifically deny the other two possibilities,
an omission that did not go unnoticed in Washington.

The U.S. government is leaving no doubt about its unhappiness with the
alleged agreement. One intelligence official working directly on the
possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran tells FP, "We're watching
what Iran does closely, but we're now watching what Israel is doing
in Azerbaijan. And we're not happy about it."

In outing the arrangement, U.S. officials have as their goal the
dampening of Israel's intentions to attack Iran - at least this
year - thus forestalling a politically tricky event for the Obama
administration in a campaign year. But the administration does
not appear to be considering the impact of its open speculation on
Azerbaijan, which if the speculation is true, would be doing a huge
service not just for Tel Aviv but for timid Western capitals while
incurring a massive risk to its well being.

Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, never good, have been slipping
of late. The Azeris recently arrested what it described as terrorists
allegedly in the employ of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
and positioned for attacks on the U.S., Israeli, and other Western
embassies in the country. For its part, Tehran accuses Azerbaijan
of supporting alleged Israeli hit squads that have been targeting
Iranian nuclear scientists with alarming efficiency, an allegation
Baku labels a "slander." The relationship is further complicated by
the presence of some sixteen million ethnic Azeris living in northern
Iran. While Baku harbors no territorial ambitions, the enclave in
Iran is a potential future source of strife for Tehran, which may
hold the Azeris responsible for keeping the area calm.

As difficult as it is to fathom the U.S. administration's objection
to deepening ties between Israel and an oil-rich, strategically
positioned, emerging Muslim democracy, it is even more perplexing
to consider why Washington would want to show Azerbaijan the back of
its hand for actions that unquestionably advance the administration's
stated goal of preventing a nuclear Iran. Azerbaijan's relationship
with Israel is clearly mutually beneficial. It has the potential to
be globally beneficial, if only Washington could look past November.

Cross-posted from the website for the Center for the Study of Former
Soviet Socialist Republics.

Mark Impomeni is a Scholar at the Center for the Study of Former
Soviet Socialist Republics, a think tank dedicated to promoting
democracy and free markets in the former Eastern Bloc.

[arakeretzig]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Flenta.ru%2Farticles%2F2012%2F04%2F10%2Ffuture%2F

However, some Russian missile defense radars ambitions do not stop there. In the framework of the Joint Air Defense System of the CIS countries after Russia intends in 2015 to equip the complexes S-400 "Triumph" neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan. The complexes will depart the local armed forces, but in all likelihood, will work in the interests of Moscow.

maybe eventually Armenia too?

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I had this wild, crazy thought: What if Russia gets the green light to take back the Caucasus and Central Asia if it doesn't meddle in Iran? That way both the West and Russia are happy and no one important gets hurt.
What would happen to Armenia in a situation like that?

Well in that situation Armenia looses more then it gains. Armenia has been developing relations with iran rather successfully. Iranians travel and spend money in Yerevan and there are many people doing business which benefits both countries. Iran is also a strategic partner and proved to be useful during the karabagh war. At this point Iran and Armenia have good relations but if the west wins and puts another stoog in charge there then our relations will be unclear at best. The west supports our enemy the turk and iran is its competitor so having Iran in western hands could be disasterous to Armenia. Sure with Georgia back in the Russian circle we will enhance our security and perhaps economy to but we willno longer have any other partner in the region besides the russians thus we will be even less independent then we are now -which is not independent anyways but i think u get my point.

[arakeretzig]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Caspian Flotilla Takes Delivery of Stealth Gunboat
19:49 16/04/2012
MOSCOW, April 16 (RIA Novosti)
Tags: Russia

Russia’s Caspian Flotilla has taken delivery of a new small artillery ship that uses stealth technology, the Southern Military District press service said on Monday.

The warship was built at the St. Petersburg based Almaz shipyard and is armed with the A-190 artillery system, two AK-306 30-mm six-barrel machineguns and a Grad-M 40-tube 122-mm multiple rocket launch systems.

It has capability to effectively engage enemy warships and troops on the coast to clear the way for assault landing operations.

The warship, which uses stealth technology, can address a broad range of missions in the Caspian Sea, as well as hard-to-access parts of the water area.

http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120416/172860657.html

[KarotheGreat]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Well in that situation Armenia looses more then it gains. Armenia has been developing relations with iran rather successfully. Iranians travel and spend money in Yerevan and there are many people doing business which benefits both countries. Iran is also a strategic partner and proved to be useful during the karabagh war. At this point Iran and Armenia have good relations but if the west wins and puts another stoog in charge there then our relations will be unclear at best. The west supports our enemy the turk and iran is its competitor so having Iran in western hands could be disasterous to Armenia. Sure with Georgia back in the Russian circle we will enhance our security and perhaps economy to but we willno longer have any other partner in the region besides the russians thus we will be even less independent then we are now -which is not independent anyways but i think u get my point.

In the situation that I am describing no state will exist in the Caucasus, Russia will just anax the whole territory and be done with it. Like I said a very crazy idea.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Rear Admiral Sergey AVAKYANTS appointed as head of Russian Pacific Fleet.

http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120503/173192168.html