Armenian-Turkish Relations

[Davo88]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

When 1.5 million was a certain number ?

Is 1.2 million any more certain than the widely acknowledged 1.5 million? No.

So apparently from what I read and watch on the net, Sargsyan's intention to sign remains unchanged...

[hipeter924]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Actually I agree it was more than just 1.5 million including those killed after the 1918 date), in addition there were Assyrian's, Greeks and other minority groups. But what I am trying to point out is they won't even have the dignity to recognise even the widely acknowledged 1.5 million, let alone any-more.

[Davo88]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The fact that the Turks do not recognize the genocide makes it look like they are OK with what happened in 1915. So imagine that now the Armenian government has degraded to such a level that it has intentions to shake hands with them and negociate... It indirectly shows that now, the Armenian government does not really care about 1915 either.

Turkey's denial also shows that it is afraid of the many consequences such as monetary or territorial compensations.

[hipeter924]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The fact that the Turks do not recognize the genocide makes it look like they are OK with what happened in 1915. So imagine that now the Armenian government has degraded to such a level that it has intentions to shake hands with them and negociate... It indirectly shows that now, the Armenian government does not really care about 1915 either.

Turkey's denial also shows that it is afraid of the many consequences such as monetary or territorial compensations.

Well the reality is that if there is genocide recognition it does not have to result in monetary or territorial compensations, it would be appreciated certainly but at least to begin with its not required.

The Armenian government is being pressured by foreign governments such as the US, the EU or perhaps even Russia to an extent to resolve the problems with Turkey. It has buckled to that pressure probably for economic reasons and perhaps even threats (wouldn't be surprised if those came from the Obama administration). It does not mean though that Armenia is going to give in to demands and hopefully it will back down on them after a time.

Realistically the best way to go about it is as follows:
a) Allow free speech and discussion about the Armenian Genocide in Turkey
b) Remove the genocide denial propaganda from the textbooks
c) Honestly attempt to improve its human rights

When people are of the education and of the mind in Turkey to recognise the Genocide they will if all those things are done. After that you can set up a tribunal of some kind for Armenians to ask for compensation from Turkey. I can't say what happens after that because its pretty hard to get a resolution that everyone agrees with when you are talking about Genocide.

[Federate]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

ARMENIA: IS YEREVAN CAUGHT IN A TRADE TRAP?
Marianna Grigoryan 10/05/09

With less than a week to go before Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian signs protocols to normalize Yerevan’s relations with longtime foe Turkey, attention is focusing on what an open Turkish border will mean for Armenian businesses. Many entrepreneurs worry that the prognosis is unsettling.

Turkey has pledged that it will lift its economic blockade against Armenia within two months after the protocols win legislative ratification in both Ankara and Yerevan. The protocols are scheduled to be signed on October 10. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Armenian economy has long struggled in the face of a lack of trade routes. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But these days, some entrepreneurs and economists in Yerevan believe domestic producers could go into trade shock if they are exposed too rapidly and haphazardly to competition with Turkey.

In 2008, despite a closed border and lack of diplomatic ties, Armenia conducted some $269 million in trade with Turkey, according to the National Statistical Service. This is twice the level of trade with Georgia ($131.3 million), the current transit country for Turkish goods to Armenia. Turkish trade volume is projected to rapidly rise if the border is opened.

At a September 16 news conference in Yerevan, Mark Lewis, the head of a visiting International Monetary Fund delegation, expressed the belief that the Armenian economy "would significantly benefit" from an open border with Turkey, with Armenian exporters gaining access to "a new and lucrative market."

But local opinions differ about how far those benefits will actually go. Thirty-three-year-old Yerevan resident Lusine Harutiunian has been importing jeans from Turkey via Georgia for the past several years. Although Harutiunian describes the Georgia route as "expensive" and time-consuming, she remains uncertain about how an open border with Turkey could improve things. "I don’t know what our situation will be like in case the border opens," Harutiunian said.

Tatoul Manasserian, a professor of international business and economics at Yerevan State University, worries that the Armenian economy could be swamped by a trade imbalance with Turkey. Manasserian argued that Armenia "has no competitive goods to offer Turkey" apart from electricity. In March 2010, Armenia is expected to begin delivering annual power supplies of 1.5 billion kilowatts per hour to Turkey.

But in other sectors, there exists a belief that Armenian firms are not ready to compete against their more experienced Turkish counterparts. Manasserian explained that production costs within Armenia tend to be higher than in Turkey, and rates of foreign investment lower. The global economic crisis could also play a role -- the Armenian economy is expected to shrink by roughly 15 percent by year’s end, according to the IMF. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"[I]f the government does not demonstrate a special attitude and have a clear strategic program, local producers will have ? difficult time," Manasserian said.

Vazgen Safarian, chairman of the Union of Domestic Manufacturers of Armenia, an association of some 500 Armenian companies, agrees. Armenia exported about $1.8 million in fur, ferrous scrap metal, aluminum and foil to Turkey in 2008, according to the group’s data. That amount is just a fraction of the value of goods that Turkey exports to Armenia. "On the one hand, our consumers will benefit from the cheap goods, but on the other hand, this will doom our local producers to having to shut down or to suspend operations," Safarian said. Armenia last year imported mostly bitumen, fuels and knitted fabrics from Turkey, Safarian’s organization reports.

To help Armenian manufacturers survive amid Turkish competition, the manufacturer’s union has proposed that the government give discounted loans to domestic producers and erect trade barriers. The proposals will be submitted for consideration this month to President Serzh Sargsyan’s Public Council, a 1,200-member advisory body.

One lobbyist for expanded business ties with Turkey disagrees with the union’s tactics, however. Once the border opens, Armenia could again become a crossroads for trading routes between Europe and Asia, contends Arsen Ghazarian, a co-chairman of the Armenian-Turkish Business Development Council, which promotes trade between Armenia and Turkey. Lingering "psychological" issues among Armenian consumers mean that Turkish goods will have a tough time making inroads in Armenian markets for the time being, Ghazarian added.

Instead, the heightened competition could help Armenia’s agricultural, healthcare and science sectors, he told reporters on September 11. Ghazarian did not specify how these sectors in particular would benefit from increased competition. Chances for "serious joint projects" in the manufacture of clothing, one of the most popular areas for Turkish imports, also exist, he continued.

But one Yerevan businessman who imports fabrics from Turkey is skeptical about the potential benefits of an open border. Lernik Yesaian says that his business has picked up considerably in the last seven to eight years. But he now worries that when an open border causes import costs to fall, other Armenian firms will be induced to join the trade, and his own company’s profits stand to shrink. "Then, many people will start importing goods, maybe the prices will go down," said Yesaian. "[T]his will hit everyone, [but] I think my business will suffer."

Economist Manasserian similarly cautions that Armenian businesses should expect the worst and be prepared. "We should understand that the opening of borders will not resolve problems, but, rather, mark the beginning of new problems," said Manasserian.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav100509.shtml

[KanadaHye]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Armenia's government sounds a lot like the Canadian government... sells out all the country's energy and resources but the people don't see a dime of it.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Armenia's government sounds a lot like the Canadian government... sells out all the country's energy and resources but the people don't see a dime of it.

Actually i disagree. You could have said that about LTP and friends cause they took the money and bailed but these guys are spending most of the money in Armenia thus benefiting the economy. Fed I would not underestimate Armenia's enterpernuers, they are savy traders who will more then find their nich in the middle of a economic highway.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Guess that Turkey declared war upon Armenia, and somehow Russia did not stand against it and after long battles Turkish Army entered Yerevan...

So what? It is full of Armenians, Turks would not be able to control that land. And there is nothing to gain from it, no sources no seaports.. Ankara already has everything that Armenia also has.

There would be serious problems with EU and UN.. Probably there would be an embargo, most probably would lost her NATO membership; economy would be damaged, would be a radical country such as Iran and N. Korea...

lots and lots of loses just for a small land.

I do not think that would be possible... As long as ultra-fascists dont take the control.. even NMP can not take that risk.

it wouldn't be a long battle - there would be little or no opposition and Turkish forces could be driving into the center of Yerevan within an hour of crossing the border. There were no defensive structures in Armenia during the Cold War, no massive army bases and vast stockpiles of weapons, because the Soviets realised that Armenia was undefendable in a conventional war - Armenia has been undefendable in a conventional war ever since the bulk of its historical territory was lost after WW1. But everything else you wrote is true. And, as America has found, merely capturing a place and then controlling it on paper means nothing - a $20
roadside bomb, or a 20c sniper's bullet, can kill a solder that cost a million dollars to train and equip.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

I think it is funny how some of these turcks talk as if genocide is such a far fetched thing for turcks to even consider committing. If we werent talking about human lives here these statements could be considered a part of a comedy show.

[Federate]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Actually i disagree. You could have said that about LTP and friends cause they took the money and bailed but these guys are spending most of the money in Armenia thus benefiting the economy. Fed I would not underestimate Armenia's enterpernuers, they are savy traders who will more then find their nich in the middle of a economic highway.

While I do not doubt that Armenians are great traders, that article is actually quoting some of these Armenian entrepreneurs themselves and they don't seem to be too optimistic. Besides this, how does Armenia expect to be in the middle of participating in regional projects when all regional projects (railroad, pipelines) include "Azerbaijan"? Our border is permanently shut with that country.