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Armenia, Azerbaijan `Close To Karabakh Deal'

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  • Just role play/Lying bastards that they are

    Originally posted by Gavur
    What is also important is that those things happen on the eve of Ilham Aliev’s visit to Washington. It appears that George Bush will appreciate Aliev’s readiness to review the rigid approaches, which brought to the failure of Ramboulliet meeting. Maybe this is what the Azeri diplomacy is relying on.
    http://www.panarmenian.net/details/eng/?nid=659
    Momentarly keeping up apparences.
    "All truth passes through three stages:
    First, it is ridiculed;
    Second, it is violently opposed; and
    Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

    Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

    Comment


    • Will Ilham (d)aliev Stand The Peaceful Attack Of Mediators?



      Azat Artsakh, Nagorno Karabakh Republic [NKR]
      27 April 2006


      Recent developments regarding the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh
      issue show that the international mediators, namely the OSCE Minsk
      Group co-chairs have launched a peaceful offensive. Hence, the
      suggestions that the West would seek for stability in the region are
      confirmed. After the failed talks of the presidents of Armenia and
      Azerbaijan in Rambouillet, France, the activity of the mediators
      resembles a blitzkrieg. The activity of the co-chairs is gathering
      momentum, and there is hardly any time left for the conflict parties
      to think. Judge yourselves. Recovering from the shock after the
      fruitless meeting of Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian in Rambouillet
      on April 11, the co-chairs met in Washington on March 7 to assess the
      results of the talks between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
      and to work out an action plan for the current deadlocked
      situation. Commenting on the Washington meeting of the co-chairs, the
      US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Rino Harnish told news reporters in Baku
      that arrangements on a peace settlement of the Karabakh issue are not
      behind the mountains. In the meantime, Ilham Aliev, who is to blame
      for the failure of the talks in Rambouillet, visited one of the
      regions of Azerbaijan bordering with Nagorno Karabakh, and stated that
      the talks in France failed due to the Armenian party, since Yerevan is
      temporizing and therefore the Baku may review its approach towards the
      settlement. Moreover, he accused Armenia more aggressively, stating
      that the latter is conducting a policy of genocide against Azerbaijan,
      perpetrating crimes against the humanity. `We are a party that lost
      and this allows us to resolve the Karabakh problem by nay means.' In
      other words, Ilham Aliev continued to blackmail the international
      community, threatening to start military actions. His plan is
      extremely simple: the West does not want a new war in the region,
      which is determined by the factor of oil, and will press Armenia. If
      this fails to happen, let everything remain the same. In several
      years, thinks Aliev Junior, weak Armenia will have to make concessions
      to Azerbaijan, which will have become stronger. In the meantime, the
      Aliev family will stuff their pockets with oil dollars from the
      Baku-Tbilisi-Geihan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum pipelines. The Armenian
      party naturally responded to the actions of the Azerbaijani
      president. President Robert Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vardan
      Oskanian used aggressive speeches to respond to Aliev. The foreign
      minister of Armenia made a statement that can be characterized as a
      threat to strike the positions of the Azerbaijani army. For his part,
      Robert Kocharian told news reporters in Yerevan that if Azerbaijan
      rejected compromise, Armenia would recognize Nagorno Karabakh
      Republic. In addition, official Yerevan notified to Azerbaijan that
      Armenia had already made its compromise and now it was Azerbaijan's
      turn. However, let us consider the current plans of the international
      mediators. They need to manage to reach an agreement based on
      documents on the basic principles of settlement as soon as possible,
      or at least signing of an agreement by the presidents of Armenia and
      Azerbaijan, reflecting their commitment to pursuing a peace settlement
      of the Karabakh issue. Hence, the peaceful offensive of the Minsk
      Group co-chairs after the talks in Rambouillet. After the meeting of
      the co-chairs in Washington US Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried and
      the American co-chair of the Minsk Group Stephen Mann visited the
      region. On March 13 and 14 they negotiated with the leadership of
      Azerbaijan. During the news conference of Daniel Fried and Stephen
      Mann in Baku it became clear that the mediators had seriously
      undertaken peaceful strictures against the presidents, particularly
      Ilham Aliev. Hence, Stephen Mann conveyed that the resumption of
      military actions would affect investments in Azerbaijan. Besides, the
      American co-chair of the Minsk Group hinted at the threats, which are
      directly related to the security and territorial integrity of
      Azerbaijan in case it resumes military actions.

      Later on March 15 and 16 the American envoys visited Armenia. It is
      notable that on March 17, Daniel Fried left for Istanbul on March 20
      to participate in another meeting of the co-chairs. During the meeting
      of the PACE Ad-hoc Committee for the Settlement of the Conflict over
      Karabakh in Paris Lord Russell Johnston, Chairman, called the parties
      (read Azerbaijan) for a halt of hatred and preparation of the peoples
      of Armenia and Azerbaijan for a peace settlement of the conflict. In
      two days the EU also clarified its standpoint through its new
      representative on the South Caucasus Peter Semneby, who also visited
      the region. The EU Special Representative emphasized that a military
      way of settling the conflict does not favor any of the parties,
      therefore the standpoints of Azerbaijan and Armenia need to be brought
      closer. Moreover, Mr.

      Semneby announced that if he were not convinced of the existence of
      possibilities of settlement of the Karabakh conflict, he would not
      accept the position of a special representative on the South
      Caucasus. Already on March 20 the Minsk Group co-chairs, as it had
      been planned, met in Istanbul, this time without Yuri Merzlyakov, who
      was ill; another official of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
      replaced him. After the top-secret meeting in Istanbul Stephan Mann
      gave an interview to Radio Liberty, and stated that the parties should
      reach an agreement in 2006, and they would have to finish the
      important work they had started to arrive somewhere. The next day the
      report on the role of the EU in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
      issue was presented in Brussels, which had been prepared by the
      International Crisis Group. In her speech the director of the
      Caucasian Bureau of the International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer said
      the final political and legal status of Nagorno Karabakh must be
      decided in 15-20 years through a referendum. By that time the Armenian
      forces must be withdrawn from the Azerbaijani territories adjacent to
      Nagorno Karabakh, controlled by the Armenian troops, that must be
      followed by stationing of international peacemaking forces, return of
      refugees and lifting of the blockade of transport routes. Hence,
      Sabine Freizer revealed the essence of the plan of settlement,
      proposed by the co-chairs, which, in fact, establishes the right of
      the people of Nagorno Karabakh for self-determination, thus upsetting
      Azerbaijan. What is the difference, they say in Baku, between losing
      Karabakh today or in 15-20 years. In the meantime, in early April the
      foreign minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mamedyarov met with Condoleezza
      Rice. During the talk Ms. Rice hinted that the United States would not
      have a destabilization in the theatre of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict
      and confirmed the invitation of an official visit to the United States
      sent by the White House to the president of Azerbaijan Ilham
      Aliev. Some time later the president of the PACE Rene van der Linden
      announced that the country which would use force to settle the
      Karabakh conflict would be discharged from the Council of Europe. He
      also invited the parties to give up militaristic statements and admit
      that the conflict defies any other settlement except the peace
      settlement. After the talks in Rambouillet NATO was not indifferent
      towards the process of settlement either. Robert Simons, the
      representative of the Secretary General of NATO, said NATO supported a
      peace settlement of the conflict. Then the French co-chair Bernard
      Fassier and his American counterpart Stephan Mann supported the high
      rates of the peace attack of the mediators. While in Baku, Bernard
      Fassier said those who call for a war, call for new victims, new
      destruction, new refugees. Azerbaijan should remember, said the French
      co-chair, that wars threaten developing economies. In addition, he
      advised Azerbaijan not to look back, to go forward, for one may have
      an accident if they go forward but look back. Terry Davis, Secretary
      General of the Council of Europe, gave recommendations to Azerbaijan
      too. He told the Azerbaijani agency APA he believed Azerbaijan would
      discharge its commitments or it would be facing troubles. These are
      the commitments Azerbaijan assumed before the Council of Europe in his
      presence, namely a peace settlement of the Karabakh issue. Considering
      the peaceful blitzkrieg of the mediators, we should not overlook
      another important fact, namely the visit of the president of Turkey
      Ahmed Nedjad Sezari to Baku. It is notable that the head of state of
      Turkey had planned to visit Azerbaijan two months before. However, the
      visit was cancelled due to bad weather. And during his April visit the
      Turkish president even endorsed a peace settlement.

      It should also be mentioned that after the meeting of Ilham Aliev and
      Robert Kocharian in Rambouillet the foreign minister of Armenia Vardan
      Oskanian visited the United States and Russia. New meetings and
      statements are coming up in the framework of the peaceful
      defensive. The new round of consultations of the Minsk Group co-chairs
      will take place in Moscow. In the capital of Russia the co-chairs
      will discuss the agenda of their next visit, scheduled in early
      May. By that time the outcome of the visit of the Azerbaijani
      president to the United States will have become known. In Moscow the
      mediators will consider the possibility of the meeting of the foreign
      ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in a third country. All these
      activities are aimed to organize another meeting of Ilham Aliev and
      Robert Kocharian, and this time there can be no failure. Otherwise,
      there is no point in holding another meeting. The statements of the
      Azerbaijan president are becoming less militaristic, whereas his
      subjects are not. Ali Hasanov, an official of Aliev administration
      announced in an outburst of emotions: `We are hopeful that the problem
      will be settled through talks, we are conscious of the disasters and
      destruction that war would bring about, and we do not want this to
      happen. We aspire to spend oil revenues on development,
      infrastructures, construction of roads, airports, reconstruction of
      seaports, regional prosperity. We are thinking of development and not
      war. At the same time, we cannot accept the occupation of our
      territories. Therefore, if necessary, we will spend all the wealth of
      our country for the liberation of our territory.' Here is a `peace
      loving aggression.' We do not think, however, that Ali Hasanov did not
      have the permission of the Azerbaijani president when he was uttering
      these words. Nothing of the like happens in Azerbaijan. Even if it
      happens, the daredevil would appear out of office.

      Consequently, Ilham Aliev is presently saying one thing but implying
      another thing. The powerful of the world made him to do it. How long
      will he behave that way? We will probably get the answer to this
      question after his official visit to Washington in late
      April. However, we do not think that George Bush invited Aliev to
      assure him that the United States will return Nagorno Karabakh to
      Azerbaijan. It will be the opposite rather. Ilham Aliev will have to
      listen to George Bush attentively what his actions regarding the peace
      settlement should be. Will the Azerbaijani president stand such an
      intensive peace loving attack of the West? , Anyway, there is little
      time to wait.


      ALEXANDER GRIGORIAN.
      26-04-2006
      "All truth passes through three stages:
      First, it is ridiculed;
      Second, it is violently opposed; and
      Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

      Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

      Comment


      • Ilham Aliyev: “Everybody knows, Armenia could never occupy our territories

        REGNUM » News » Ilham Aliyev: “Everybody…
        Ilham Aliyev: “Everybody knows, Armenia could never occupy our territories without Russian army’s assistance”
        Read it in Russian

        “We hope, that USA as a superpower and co-Chair of OCSI Minsk Group will contribute to Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement, and peace will be finally established in the region,” President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated in Washington. “Karabakh is the main question, which hinders in Azerbaijan’s development, excepting this, we are quite okay: the budget is growing, energy programs are expanding,” Aliyev stressed speaking at the Foreign Affairs Council.

        Answering the question, to what extent Armenia, which has won the war, is ready, in Aliyev’s opinion, to compromise, the Azerbaijani president stated: “First of all, from my point of view, Armenia has not won the war. Perhaps, the country achieved some advantages with considerable assistance of other states. Everybody knows that Armenia could never occupy our territories without Russian army’s assistance, which played a vital part. Nevertheless, the war is not over.” “I think it is time for the Armenian authorities to imagine, what it will be with the country in five, ten or fifteen years, if the conflict is not settled. Azerbaijani people’s patience is not everlasting,” Aliyev stated. According to him, “Azerbaijan’s future is rather clear; our country will be strong, prosperous, with strong economy and society. Azerbaijan will become a country, with which it will be worthy to be a neighbor or not to be at all.”

        According to Aliyev, peace is profitable for all the parties. In exchange for compromises, Armenia will get communication ways, a way out to Russia, and a very important circumstance – the country will be able to participate in regional projects and developments. As for Nagorno Karabakh population, it will obtain a right for peaceful and legal life, Aliyev stressed. “Our position in the question is very clear: the conflict should be resolved in context of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Nagorno Karabakh population will receive right for high level of autonomy in the framework of Azerbaijani territorial integrity. They should receive rather clear political guarantees, that there will be eternal peace in the region,” head of the Azerbaijani state pointed out.

        It should be mentioned, American mediator on Karabakh settlement Steven Mann, who was present during Aliyev’s speech, stated that “it is important to reject attempts to solve existing questions quickly and finally. Reverse approach should be preferred – to move slowly and to put some complicated questions aside,” Radio Liberty informs.
        "All truth passes through three stages:
        First, it is ridiculed;
        Second, it is violently opposed; and
        Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

        Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

        Comment


        • Azerbaijan To Hold Repeat Elections

          "All truth passes through three stages:
          First, it is ridiculed;
          Second, it is violently opposed; and
          Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

          Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

          Comment


          • Karabakh: There Are No Reasonable Alternatives To Peaceful Resolution

            Agency WPS
            DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
            May 12, 2006 Friday

            KARABAKH: WHY DO BREAKTHROUGH AND PEACE REMAIN AN IMPOSSIBILITY FOR
            THE TIME BEING?

            by Ambassador Vladimir Kazimirov, the head of the Russian mission for
            truce in Karabakh

            VLADIMIR KAZIMIROV, THE HEAD OF THE RUSSIAN MISSION FOR TRUCE IN
            KARABAKH: THERE ARE NO REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES TO PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
            OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT; The very idea of a resolution of the
            Karabakh conflict by force must be abandoned for good.

            Debates over Nagorno-Karabakh are becoming heated: if a peaceful
            resolution of the conflict is possible or the Azerbaijanis and the
            Armenians are doomed to another test of bloodshed. The opponents may
            be counted on to loose a propagandistic barrage to celebrate the next
            anniversary of the cease-fire accord. Established with Russia's help
            on May 12, 1994, the accord is actually the only tangible result of
            the peace process turned over to the OSCE. This truce is all twelve
            years of the talks have to show for the effort.

            A year of relative quiet in the political lives of Azerbaijan and
            Armenia, 2006 created the illusions of a breakthrough. The meeting of
            Presidents Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Robert Kocharjan (Armenia)
            in France on February 10-11 confirms the old axiom that considerable
            expectations usually result in disappointment. And yet, search for
            the peaceful resolution of the conflict must continue.

            Everyone knows that the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians thoroughly
            distrust each other and that's probably the most distinctive feature
            of the old conflict. Distrust of the other side and fear of
            deception, treachery, or sabotage account for the sides'
            uncompromising stand on the matter. It is as if they are doomed to
            striving for fulfillment of their own demands first and foremost. The
            Armenians want the status of Karabakh determined. The Azerbaijanis
            want seven occupied districts liberated and returned to them. As a
            result, the clumsy process of talks breeds blind alleys one after
            another instead of progressing from one concession to another.

            How can this fatal distrust be lessened? It is this distrust that
            precludes accords. Not even their signing will guarantee
            implementation. Leaderships should be responsive and tolerant, they
            should stop this endless fault finding that encourages mutually
            shared hostility. Contacts between structures of the two societies
            are needed. This is precisely what is missing.

            Nothing feeds mutual distrust as effectively and profusely as threats
            and hatred. Needless to say, Azerbaijan is the leader of the two
            where threats are concerned. Yerevan and Stepanakert barely manage to
            keep up with Baku where state officials never miss a chance to
            threaten to settle the matter by sheer strength of arms.

            The "peace or war" dilemma in the meantime is false because there are
            no alternatives to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Not only
            because of something as vague as humanism - because of the rigid laws
            of logic, because of the correlation of forces in the region that
            does not really call for military adventures. The existing
            correlation of forces is going to preclude success for a long time to
            come, and a protracted war will deadly. Its advocates cannot even
            hope for victory. Even success which is highly unlikely will only
            shift the conflict to a new generation.

            Everyone objects to continuation of the conflict: Russia, United
            States, France, European Union, Commonwealth, NATO, and many others.
            What pressure will be applied to the aggressor without even
            accomplishing anything yet? Fiasco instead of victory!

            It did not take Baku long to forget the bitter years of 1992-1994.
            Elaborating at length on occupation of their land, the Azerbaijanis
            never display the willingness to get to the root of the matter and
            think of how their lands came to be occupied. Moreover, this is an
            outright taboo. In the meantime, Azerbaijani leaders have spent years
            trying to resolve the conflict by force, refusing to honor and even
            wrecking cease-fire. I remember my conversation with President Heydar
            Aliyev in Baku on July 20, 1993. I remember his scream "We'll crush
            the Armenians!" This refusal to heed common sense resulted in the
            loss of seven districts. Baku is saying that it will win them back in
            a war all over again now.

            All these calls for vengeance are unlikely to work. They are not
            going to compel the Armenians to leave the "security zone" around
            Karabakh or to win Azerbaijan support in the international community.
            The other way round is more likely. It will be, however, a mistake to
            believe that all these calls are made for "domestic use" only and
            that Azerbaijan does not really have the strength to do what it
            pledges to accomplish. Deceiving the people, sawing enmity, and
            maiming psyche of new generations, troubadours of the war only
            aggravate distrust and thus interfere with the attempts to resolve
            the conflict, slow down the process of tackling moot issues.

            Incidents and victims on the line where the warring sides stand face
            to face serve to mount tension. The Armenians claim they are prepared
            to observe the accord between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and
            Nagorno-Karabakh dated February 6, 1995, a document aimed to resolve
            incidents and lessen losses. Baku does not bother to honor the accord
            and does not even pledge to try to. Neither does the OSCE seem to
            care. This latter does not care about the only existing accord on
            Karabakh, and the monitoring missions it mounts every now and then
            cannot prevent new victims or complications. The arms race President
            of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev openly cultivate could only be condemned.
            The OSCE is silent on that subject too.

            All of these are artificial barriers erected by the ruling elites
            because even mutual concessions imply dangers to them. Avoiding
            concessions, the elites are trying to retain their positions of power
            at the cost of the two peoples. This ostentatious patriotism and
            demonization of the enemy are all too frequently corollaries of the
            domestic political situation.

            Seeking to finally establish peace in Karabakh, the very idea of a
            resolution by force must be abandoned for good. That should be a
            priority in 2006. No progress is possible without it. Responsibility
            for resolution the conflict accepted, the OSCE should become more
            determined and never hesitate whenever something compromises its
            peace mission. It should not dismiss the threats uttered by state
            officials or the hosannah they sing to the arms race. It should not
            feign not to notice bloodshed. Both peoples need a breakthrough that
            will lead to peace. At least in 2009 or 2010!

            Source: Vremya Novostei, May 4, 2006, p. 5
            "All truth passes through three stages:
            First, it is ridiculed;
            Second, it is violently opposed; and
            Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

            Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

            Comment


            • Mediators Will Not Tolerate Another ‘rambouillet’

              Լրահոս edit post Ինչի՞ է 20 օրից ավել էսքան մարդ դուրսը նստած, ու ցինիկաբար ասում են՝ մենք ձեզ ուզում ենք փրկենք 28/11/2024 edit post Դեսպան Քվինը հայ աշխատակիցներին հյուրասիրել է իր ձեռքով պատրաստած թխվածքով 28/11/2024 edit post Հայաստանը շարունակում է գրավված մնալ 28/11/2024 edit post Իմ զարթուցիչը Հայաստանի հիմնն է. ինձնից ավելի հայրենասեր մարդ չեմ […]


              Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents May Be Forced to Agree in Bucharest

              Touching on the Nagorno Karabakh issues in February daily Azg ruled out that the conflicting sides can come to terms at the Rambouillet meeting. The reason we mentioned was that Azerbaijan’s public opinion is not ready for any compromise settlement. Once such a document was signed, the country’s leader would have problems back home. What is the situation prior to the Bucharest meeting and how probable it is that the meeting will yield if not an agreement than at least a breakthrough?

              Contrary to the Rambouillet meeting, the get-together in Bucharest preceded by international pressure on the sides to come to terms. Thus we can conclude that this time the co-chairs are instructed by the states they represent to bring the stances of the sides closer. For that reason during the last visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the region they were accompanied by the heads of foreign affairs departments of their state. They visited only Azerbaijan and Armenia but Not Nagorno Karabakh. It also speaks well for the fact that the European delegation had a specific message to the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan and was not another "acquaintance with positions of the sides". It’s not accidental that after the European delegation’s visit the sides announced about the Bucharest meeting.

              This means that the mediating states hope to achieve an agreement and are not going to tolerate another Rambouillet. It seems the slightly edited settlement option of Rambouillet will be imposed upon Armenia and Azerbaijan. But will the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan give in to the mediators’ pressure? Will an agreement be signed? This is going to be the toughest trial for both Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev. Yet, one thing is clear: refusal to sign an agreement can have bad consequences for the two leaders. What agreement do the mediators put forward?

              Judging from the statements of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and foreign ministers as well as mass media reports, the principles of conflict resolution are roughly as follows: Armenia withdraws from 5 of 7 occupied territories neighboring Karabakh, Azerbaijan recognizes the right for self-determination of the people of Karabakh and agrees to hold a referendum there. Before the referendum Nagorno Karabakh gets an interim status. According to the Western media, the issue of Kelbajar region is still disputable.

              Agreeing to these principles can cause serious inner political problems for Kocharian and particularly Aliyev. Some of the principles are extremely unbeneficial for Armenia and some for Azerbaijan. But the Azeri president is in even tougher situation as the Azerbaijani society does not even want to hear of Nagorno Karabakh’s self-determination.

              However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a signed agreement in Bucharest due to the international pressure.

              By Ara Martirosian
              "All truth passes through three stages:
              First, it is ridiculed;
              Second, it is violently opposed; and
              Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

              Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Gavur
                http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2006053105

                Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents May Be Forced to Agree in Bucharest

                Touching on the Nagorno Karabakh issues in February daily Azg ruled out that the conflicting sides can come to terms at the Rambouillet meeting. The reason we mentioned was that Azerbaijan’s public opinion is not ready for any compromise settlement. Once such a document was signed, the country’s leader would have problems back home. What is the situation prior to the Bucharest meeting and how probable it is that the meeting will yield if not an agreement than at least a breakthrough?

                Contrary to the Rambouillet meeting, the get-together in Bucharest preceded by international pressure on the sides to come to terms. Thus we can conclude that this time the co-chairs are instructed by the states they represent to bring the stances of the sides closer. For that reason during the last visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the region they were accompanied by the heads of foreign affairs departments of their state. They visited only Azerbaijan and Armenia but Not Nagorno Karabakh. It also speaks well for the fact that the European delegation had a specific message to the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan and was not another "acquaintance with positions of the sides". It’s not accidental that after the European delegation’s visit the sides announced about the Bucharest meeting.

                This means that the mediating states hope to achieve an agreement and are not going to tolerate another Rambouillet. It seems the slightly edited settlement option of Rambouillet will be imposed upon Armenia and Azerbaijan. But will the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan give in to the mediators’ pressure? Will an agreement be signed? This is going to be the toughest trial for both Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev. Yet, one thing is clear: refusal to sign an agreement can have bad consequences for the two leaders. What agreement do the mediators put forward?

                Judging from the statements of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and foreign ministers as well as mass media reports, the principles of conflict resolution are roughly as follows: Armenia withdraws from 5 of 7 occupied territories neighboring Karabakh, Azerbaijan recognizes the right for self-determination of the people of Karabakh and agrees to hold a referendum there. Before the referendum Nagorno Karabakh gets an interim status. According to the Western media, the issue of Kelbajar region is still disputable.

                Agreeing to these principles can cause serious inner political problems for Kocharian and particularly Aliyev. Some of the principles are extremely unbeneficial for Armenia and some for Azerbaijan. But the Azeri president is in even tougher situation as the Azerbaijani society does not even want to hear of Nagorno Karabakh’s self-determination.

                However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a signed agreement in Bucharest due to the international pressure.

                By Ara Martirosian

                Interesting article. It wouldn't be the worst situation if the Armenians retain in addition to Artsakh; Karavachar (Kashatagh) and Berdzor.
                General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

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                • Armenian, Azeri leaders may sign peace accord at Bucharest talks

                  Yerevan daily

                  Azg, Yerevan
                  30 May 06



                  Text of report by Armenian newspaper Azg on 30 May headlined
                  "Mediators will not agree with a second Rambouillet"

                  It cannot be ruled out that under pressure from the [OSCE] mediators,
                  the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will reach an agreement in
                  Bucharest [early June].

                  Prior to the Rambouillet meeting [between the Azerbaijani and Armenian
                  presidents in February 2006], Azg newspaper ruled out the signing of
                  an agreement on a settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and this
                  happened. We gave a reason as well. Azerbaijani society is not ready
                  to any scenario of a settlement based on compromises. If a document of
                  this kind was signed, the country's president would have had serious
                  problems after returning home.

                  What a situation we have before the Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting in
                  Bucharest? It is possible that not an agreement, but serious progress
                  will be achieved. Unlike Rambouillet, the international community
                  exerts serious pressure on both sides for reaching an agreement. We
                  can say that the co-chairmen [of the OSCE Minsk Group] have their
                  countries' authorities approval to bring the two sides' positions
                  closer. The fact that not only the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen but
                  also senior officials of these countries' foreign ministries have paid
                  a visit to the region testifies to this.

                  They visited only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but not Karabakh. It means
                  that they held concrete talks with the Armenian and Azerbaijani
                  officials involved in the [Karabakh] negotiations. This was not a
                  fact-finding visit, and it was not unexpected that the announcement
                  about a meeting of the two countries' presidents in Bucharest was made
                  after the visit. What does it mean? It means that the mediator
                  countries hope to reach a specific agreement and are not planning the
                  second Rambouillet. Probably, Armenia and Azerbaijan have to agree
                  with some changes to a settlement scenario proposed in Rambouillet.

                  Here is another question. Will the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
                  compromise under pressure from the mediators? Will a settlement
                  agreement be signed? True, this will be a difficult problem for both
                  [Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan and [Azerbaijani President]
                  Ilham Aliyev. It is impossible to give an exact answer to this
                  question. Though we can say that a refusal to sign any kind of
                  document will be very difficult for them as this will have negative
                  results. But what kind of document has been offered to the sides?
                  According to media claims about what the Armenian and Azerbaijani
                  presidents, the foreign ministers and other officials have been told,
                  the principles of the Karabakh settlement are approximately as
                  follows. Armenia will pull out from five districts neighbouring
                  Nagornyy Karabakh (there are seven [occupied by Armenia] of them). In
                  return, Azerbaijan will recognize the right of the people of Nagornyy
                  Karabakh for self-determination and agree to hold a referendum
                  there. Nagornyy Karabakh will get a transition status till the
                  referendum.

                  In his recent TV address, the Armenian president said that the sides
                  could not reach an agreement on one issue. According to the western
                  media, this could be the issue of Kalbacar District [occupied by
                  Armenia].

                  According to available information, Robert Kocharyan and especially
                  Ilham Aliyev will have serious political problems in their countries
                  if they agree with these principles. Some principles of a document are
                  completely unacceptable for Armenia, and others for Azerbaijan.

                  But the Azerbaijani president is in more difficult situation from this
                  point of view because if Armenian society is a bit ready to the idea
                  of returning the occupied territories in return for security
                  guarantees, Azerbaijani society does not want to hear about Karabakh's
                  self-determination. Unlike Rambouillet, where we ruled out the signing
                  of any agreement, in Bucharest we cannot rule out that an agreement
                  may be signed because of international pressure.
                  "All truth passes through three stages:
                  First, it is ridiculed;
                  Second, it is violently opposed; and
                  Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

                  Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

                  Comment


                  • Russia Rules Out Imposed Solution to Karabagh Conflict


                    BAKU, May 31 (RFE/RL) - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov today said that talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia are the only way to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabagh. Speaking in Baku, he said a solution imposed from outside could be counterproductive and dangerous. Russia, the United States, and France co-chair the Minsk Group of nations tasked with helping solve the 18-year-old conflict. (Turan, Interfax)
                    "All truth passes through three stages:
                    First, it is ridiculed;
                    Second, it is violently opposed; and
                    Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

                    Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

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                    • Armenia, Azerbaijan Agree To Resume Karabakh Talks

                      Monday, 12 June, 2006



                      By Anna Saghabalian

                      Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said on Monday that he will fly to
                      Paris early Tuesday for talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar
                      Mammadyarov which he hopes will salvage the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
                      process.

                      `I don't know yet whether the negotiations will be direct or in the
                      so-called proximity format,' he told reporters, adding that they were
                      initiated by the American, French and Russian mediators.

                      The Paris meeting will come just one week after the failure by the
                      presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a framework agreement on
                      Karabakh conflict during two days of intensive negotiations in
                      Bucharest. The apparent collapse of the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit, the
                      second in four months, dealt a severe blow to the mediators' efforts to
                      find a solution to the conflict this year.

                      Oskanian insisted that there is still a chance for peace. `There are
                      still unresolved problems,' he said. `But there are also difficult
                      issues on which we had for years failed to agree but on which there is
                      agreement now. So there is that positive element in the process.'

                      He declined to disclose those issues or give other details of the talks.
                      Other Armenian officials have said implicitly that the summit did not
                      result in a peace accord because of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev's
                      last-minute rejection of the mediators' idea of enabling Karabakh's
                      predominantly Armenian population to decide its status in a referendum.
                      The referendum would reportedly take place at least a decade after the
                      liberation of most Armenian-occupied territories around Karabakh.

                      Politicians and commentators critical of Armenia's leadership have also
                      raised questions about President Robert Kocharian's commitment to this
                      formula. The Yerevan daily `Haykakan Zhamanak' said on Saturday that
                      Kocharian told senior Armenian officials after the Bucharest talks that
                      he is relieved by Aliev's alleged rejection of the peace plan.
                      "All truth passes through three stages:
                      First, it is ridiculed;
                      Second, it is violently opposed; and
                      Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

                      Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

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