Armenia, Azerbaijan `Close To Karabakh Deal'

[Helen]

This conflict is going the way of the Cyprus conflict, meaning that there will be no final solutions. Neither side will give an inch and both sides are preparing for the long haul. The Armenians will continue to fortify the region, build up its defensive capabilities and grow the economy. The Azeris will continue to clamor for war and do nothing. The conflict is intractable. Others will disagree but they are the ones that know next to nothing about the region. We are talking about a zero-sum game.

The current administration (or any that hope to survive) will not abandon Artsakh. There would be a coup immmediately if that were to happen.

Turkish troops will not be deployed by NATO to the region. NATO is not currently part of the negotiating process (which is under the auspices of the OSCE) and it's highly doubtful that they even if they were involved, invite Turkish troops for "peace-keeping" operations. The article is in refernce to an interview that was conducted in the Azeri press where a Turkish official said Turkey would like to be deployed to the region. The chances of it happening are slim to none...but the image is horrifying nonetheless.

BTW, if this were to happen, the Russians would go crazy.

Thanks for reassuring , positive post Joseph
I want to share one of my friend's thoughts on the matter...:

I think the matter is much complicted, and if land in Artsah is surrendered ..this will be the cause for total distabilization of Armenia itself ....which even russia and america dont want this period..the only interested parties are turkey and azeris. Armenia has try to walk on a threshold by sending troups from Iraq to Kossovo and is trying to show good will in Nato and US and to European Union ...but... if responsible officials that will be signing up the surrendered land "next day" will be dead and Armenia will have big troubles...so the surrender of Artsah is not a problem of Artsah but rather of Armenia itself....and now days with the US and Russia exchanging "cold war" threats to each ther for the issue of setting up rocket systems in european countries aiming the russian territory makes it unsolvable for now, lets not forget countries like Poland that are willing to help Armenia have close ties with US and Turkey and work for their interest. So some Armenian officials that have"honeymoon" with countries that are tied in the US side are not seen with "confortable" eye from the site of Russia ...and not forget Russia needs Armenia as is for its strategic plans ...But again think that alot of times rumors or events to be done so just to taste trend and reactions...if there is a huge wave of negatism about a rumor they stop and transfer to another time ....if there is positive or indifference reaction then they take advantage and proceed to do such plans...it is matter of a unwritten "psychological" warfare that they do to test grounds...

[Helen]

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=22567

[http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=22567
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ By saying that the sides have agreed on returning the 7 regions around Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan, the Azeri President just presents his wishes as reality, Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stated to a press conference. “We have our stance on Karabakh and it has not changed a bit. That is, Karabakh people must have all security guarantees for residing on those territories, where they have been living for centuries. Karabakh gained independence according to the USSR law via referendum. After that Azerbaijan perpetrated aggression against Karabakh. A security zone was established in the result of military operations. We think that people of Nagorno Karabakh have the full right to self-determination. This is the first. Second, we think that Karabakh cannot exist as an enclave. That’s why it must have a land border with Armenia. And finally the third, we must have strong guarantees for preventing resumption of military operations. The security zone was established exactly for that reason. Based on those three conditions we move to the peaceful solution of the problem,” he underlined.

Commenting on the issue, that according to some media means he had given certain promises to Americans on compromising in the Karabakh problem, particularly in territorial issues, Serzh Sargsyan stated, “For the first time I hear that I have given certain promises. We can promise to marry, but the matter concerns more serious things. We have not promised anything to anyone,” “Moskovski Komsomolets” reports.

[1.5 million]

Great statement that I totally agree with. Azerbaijan has got to be made to be responsible for its aggression against Nagorno Karabagh - including the acceptance of loss of certain territories - that is just the way it will have to be - and then we can talk - and then we can give something back.

[Helen]

Great statement that I totally agree with. Azerbaijan has got to be made to be responsible for its aggression against Nagorno Karabagh - including the acceptance of loss of certain territories - that is just the way it will have to be - and then we can talk - and then we can give something back.

Something back?
What about our lands in current Azerbaijan?

[Steph]

Something back?
What about our lands in current Azerbaijan?

Seriously, yeah, give back what?
The azeri government and people have consistently shown their readiness to eradicate, wherever possible, any trace of Armenia and Armenians.........what, 1.5, would you give back to them?

[1.5 million]

Seriously, yeah, give back what?
The azeri government and people have consistently shown their readiness to eradicate, wherever possible, any trace of Armenia and Armenians.........what, 1.5, would you give back to them?

We don't live in an ideal world. Armenia is not in a position to dictate outcomes but must work toward solutions that will enahnce its security and prevent ostrization from its neighbors and the world community. Thus there has to be some give. I'm not talking about giving up NK itself - as I don't see that as negotiable. However I see all the surrounding Azeri territory as potentially (and necissarily) on the table in order for Armenia to be seen as legitimatly attempting to pursue a peaceful solution. This is just reality. I would hope that some physical connection or corridor could be maintained to link NK with Armenia and that some perimiter can be maintained around NK as well - if not as recognized Armenian territory then designated military free (for both Azerbaijan and Armenian forces) with some type of international body put in place to ensure it remain so. This might not be the ideal solution - but negotiations are like that - one must give to get ultimatly.

[1.5 million]

Something back?
What about our lands in current Azerbaijan?

Armenia has no lands within current Azerbaijan. We can no longer consider Natchivian ours. Its not anymore and that is just the way of it. Unless Armenia is willing to go to war for it (and I don't think that they are or likely ever will be) or unless - as I have seen - someone comes up with a particularly inventive land swap - Armenians have to come to the reality that we have lost most of our historic lands and that there are no realistic solutions for regaining them and any thoughts of this nature are pipe dreams at best and are in the end unconstructive and a waste of time. If you truly think differently then I would suggest you just don't understand the way things are. As much as it pains me to come to this realization it is fact. We have to understand and live as Saryoyan suggested - where Armenians are what is important and not land. Time cannot move backward. And as much as our lands are clearly an integral part of us - well they remain so in our memory and our history - and this can never change. But the world is as it is and is evolving still - and not in ways that suggest that Armenians will ever again reclaim past lands/territories. We must deal with the cards we have been dealt. And I see no reason why we shouldn't suceed and prosper and create new lives for ourselves in the new realities of our world.

[Gavur]

I don't think we need anyone to guard our borders,International force (NATO?never!)may be needed if we let the former Azeri's back which would never happen in my opinion not unless we're in the EU!

[Joseph]

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=22616

Negotiation process on Karabakh frozen till 2009

11.06.2007 14:59 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The meeting between Armenian and Azeri Presidents in St. Petersburg put an end to the negotiation process on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict till 2009, political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan stated to a press conference in Yerevan. He said, OSCE and particularly the Minsk Group exerted heavy pressures on Armenia and Azerbaijan for adopting any agreement. “It was very important for OSCE to reach a success because of the Kosovo problem. However, the presidents could not come to an agreement, which was expected,” the Armenian political scientist said. He also thinks that no military operations are expected till 2025. “Currently it is very important to prepare for a variant of war during the remaining 10-15 years. Azerbaijan increases its arsenal, but I want to remind that Azeris had 94-times superiority over Armenians in equipment in 1991. Armenia must be always ready for war,” he said, adding that despite some differences, the OSCE MG Co-Chairs have the same stance in preventing any possible war.

At the same time he stressed, during their meeting with press in Baku and Yerevan the OSCE MG Co-Chairs used to say such things that people want to hear from them. “Those are diplomatic games, which are a part for exerting pressure on the conflicting sides,” the political scientist underscored.

As to if NKR belongs to Azerbaijan, Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan stated that Nagorno Karabakh has never been a part of either Azerbaijan, or Azeri SSR. “During the soviet times NKAO obeyed central authorities in Moscow, and in no way Baku.

[Joseph]

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=22647

Expert: Determination of Karabakh’s status may take some 10 years
13.06.2007 15:59 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Saint Petersburg meeting of Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was an advance in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement process, deputy director and fellow of Russia and Eurasia Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Cory Welt told a news conference in Yerevan.

“Determination of the status of Nagorno Karabakh may take some 10 years. So, Armenia and Azerbaijan can lead a quiet life. To be honest, we hoped that the sides will come to an agreement, but in vain. I suppose alternative ways of settlement should be sought for,” the U.S. expert said.

Mr Welt underscored that use of force in Karabakh conflict should be prevented by all means. “We should search for a political compromise. However neither of the sides is ready for it,” he said.