Revolutions in the Middle East

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Pattern of Life: Where Would Hosni Mubarak Flee?

When dictators are overthrown they are typically either killed in short order (think Nicolae Ceauşescu) or they flee. Without too much statistical analysis, we can come up with deposed leaders that left their country for France (Baby Doc of Haiti) and Saudi Arabia (recently, Ben Ali from Tunisia).

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is in trouble. Given the ongoing protests against his government, we may be interested in finding out where, if forced, he would flee. We won’t attempt to make a judgement call on whether he will survive or explicitly find his travel plans since they presumably don’t exist directly in the open source.

In considering where Mubarak might go, we’ll use his patterns of communication and travel over the last 12 months as identified in Recorded Future to provide guidance.
Communciation Patterns
Hosni Mubarak Communication Patterns


Hosni Mubarak Communication Trends

* Hosni Mubarak had interactions with a large number of world leaders including Obama, Clinton, Merkel, Sarkozy, and Berlusconi.
* Mubarak also privately met with the head of Oman – Sultan Qaboos bin Said – during his visit to Egypt.

Travel Patterns

Inspecting the treemap of President Mubarak’s travel patterns over the last year, we find some interesting clues to where he might go if forced to leave Egypt:

Hosni Mubarak Travel Patterns

* One of the highest momentum cities in the visualization is London. This comes with an interesting indicator on the Huffington Post: “It was reported two days ago that Gamal Mubarak, son of President Mubarak was heading to London with a big entourage and about 80 pieces of luggage along with his mother, Suzanne Mubarak, and high officials, though Egyptian sources dismiss the report as false.”
* Germany stands out in the above treemap, and we learn that Mubarak traveled there for cancer treatment in 2010. Would Germany have him back given that they provided him medical attention? Similarly, Mubarak also travelled to Paris for suspected health reasons.
* Italy has been called out as the strongest European connection for Egypt, and Mubarak seems to have a strong relationship with Berlusconi. Mubarak also stopped in Greece when returning from his last trip to Italy.
* Other web sources (not at all verified) suggest a strong relationship between Mubarak and the rulers of the UAE might make it a prime destination.
* Mubarak has travelled to a number of Arab nations like Libya, Jordan, Sudan, Algeria, but those places would be potentially unstable and not necessarily offer protection in the long run.
* Ben Ali, the former leader of Tunisia, recently fled to Saudi Arabia where Mubarak was for discussions in late 2009. The Egyptian president met with King Abdullah in mid-2010 in a peace summit, and the Saudi king very recently expressed his support for Mubarak. Supposedly this chant can be heard in Egypt right now: “Christian or Muslim it’s not important, similar poverty similar concerns! Hosni Mubarak, Hosni Mubarak, the plane is waiting, the plane is waiting. Saudi Arabia is not far!”
* Mubarak has also been in the US for peace summits and other political meetings, but the US seems an unlikely place to flee.

Conclusion

Hosni Mubarak has a much broader set of connections and travel patterns than Ben Ali of Tunisia, and potentially has more places to go should he be forced from Egypt. Still, the options seem limited if he wants to establish a long term place to stay.

Even if Mubarak has kept plenty of interactions with the US, France, UK, Germany, and others, it would seem unlikely that any of those countries would take him in although Italy may be an exception.

Saudi Arabia stands out as the strongest candidate given both its recent display of support as well as historical connections. The UAE and Oman might be other relatively safe places.

In the end, our bet is on Saudia Arabia.

http://blog.recordedfuture.com/2011/01/30/pattern-of-life-where-would-hosni-mubarak-flee/

[Davo88]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

A democratic Azerbaijan would probably not continue the policy of war rhetoric (i.e. status quo) promoted by Ilham Aliyev. They would rather make a serious attempt to "liberate" Karabakh or, if they're smart, they'd opt for unconditional peace.

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

can it be worse than the dictatorship that is present?

Is it in Armenia's interest for Azerbaijan to have a bad reputation and be corrupt so it never functions normally? That is the question mate.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

The question to ask now is: would a democratic Azerbaijan be in Armenia's interests?

can it be worse than the dictatorship that is present?

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

The question to ask now is: would a democratic Azerbaijan be in Armenia's interests?

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

speaking of well written articles
Azerbaijan: Protests in Egypt Are Reverberating in Baku
January 31, 2011 - 12:03pm, by Khadija Ismayilova
Azerbaijan Egypt Azerbaijani Politics Democratization
Like many Azerbaijanis, Elnura Jivazade, a resident of the Baku suburb of Khirdalan, is watching Egypt’s political upheaval closely. But unlike most Azerbaijanis, Jivazade sees Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak each morning. His statue, a symbol of Azerbaijani-Egyptian friendship, stands in a Khirdalan park that she passes each weekday on her way to work.

“I always wondered why this monument is standing here, and what will happen to it if the dictatorship falls in Egypt,” she said. “Now, Mubarak’s regime is falling, but he is still sitting here in the park with such confidence.”

The question of how Azerbaijanis will or should interpret Egyptian protestors’ ongoing struggle against President Mubarak appears to be gaining increasing currency among critics of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and many young Azerbaijanis.

Ties between the two countries largely hinge on energy -- the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) is involved in oil trade and processing in Egypt -- and on good works. First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva, head of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, serves on the board of the Alexandria Library and has a secondary school named in her honor in the Cairo suburb of Qaulubiyya, which contains a monument to the late President Heydar Aliyev.

The two countries’ First Ladies also both appeared in a pop song dedicated to peace, written by Egyptian First Lady Suzanne Mubarak and performed by the Azerbaijani singer Tunzale Agayeva.

Officials in Baku appear to be taking measures to ensure that public parallels between the Egyptian and Azerbaijani leaderships stop there. Days after protests began in Tunisia and Egypt, the Azerbaijani government’s anti-corruption commission, overseen by presidential administration Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev, met on January 27 for the first time since 2009. A number of import duties, often seen as benefiting government-friendly monopolists, have been abolished as well.

Sources in the government tell EurasiaNet.org that in recent days they have received directives advising them to avoid irritating the population and to work effectively and build public trust.

Some government critics, meanwhile, are trying to highlight similarities between Mubarak’s and Aliyev’s administrations.

A group of 100-plus non-partisan and opposition candidates, along with activists from political parties and non-governmental organizations, gathered on January 29 to urge the Azerbaijani government to either hold new parliamentary elections, or brace for popular protests similar to those seen in Egypt and Tunisia.

The leaders of the group’s main opposition parties – Musavat and Popular Front of Azerbaijan -- have not said whether or not they would be the ones organizing protests. Azerbaijan’s opposition is not known for its political muscle, but one political commentator, Shahveled Chobanoghlu, notes that events in Egypt and Tunisia have shattered myths about political change in Muslim countries.

“The first myth is that there is no opposition. If you don’t see the opposition, it does not mean there is no opposition,” said Chobanoghlu. “Election results in both of these countries show the absolute leadership of the ruling parties. So, where did all of these protesters come from?”

The second myth, he added, is that an Islamic opposition will come to power if a secular government collapses – a concept that some local critics argue prompted the Azerbaijani government’s recent arrest of an Islamic political leader and clamp-down on the hijab in schools, among other measures.

Despite Azerbaijan’s lack of a robust opposition, one political analyst, a government critic in Baku, expressed hope that the example of Tunisia and Egypt will encourage Azerbaijanis – where the median population age is similarly young, 28.5 years old – to push for “systemic changes.”
Tunisia, Egypt and Azerbaijan all suffer from “corruption, poverty . . . rigged elections, a refusal to share power, [excessive influence by families of the] First Ladies, and monopolization of the economy in favor of the ruling families,” argued Arastun Orujlu, director of Baku’s East-West Research Center.

A number of active Azerbaijani Facebook and Twitter users are drawing similar parallels. Such users are openly debating whether the Azerbaijani army would “support the nation,” if demonstrations against what they perceive as government abuses of power were held, whether the Azerbaijani police “act like in Tunisia” or whether “the Azerbaijani opposition is ready to seize the moment.”

One such user, Zohrab Ismayil (no relation to this reporter), has created a 107-member Facebook group, Support to the Revolution in Egypt, intended to offer support to those individuals critical of governments’ abuses of civil and human rights. “There is also a hope that it will have a domino effect and will echo in our country as well” Ismayil said in reference to the protests in Egypt.

Political analyst Rasim Musabekov, a non-partisan member of parliament, sees little chance that the situation in Arab countries, especially Egypt and Tunisia, can influence developments in Azerbaijan, given the countries’ dissimilar histories. “Only if the process of change will be successful and will pave the way to stable and democratic regimes, might they have an impact on the situation in Azerbaijan” Musabekov said.

Government critics like Orujlu, still maintain that events in Egypt and Tunisia have sent a powerful message. “No matter what the government and opposition in Azerbaijan are learning from what is going on in North Africa, there is something that has already changed in the world,” Orujlu said “It is an understanding that you can’t rely on dictators.”

Editor's note: Khadija Ismayilova is freelance journalist based in Baku. She hosts a daily program on current affairs broadcast by the Azeri Service of RFE/RL.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62802

[KanadaHye]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Thought this was a well written and thought out article...


The dominoes are beginning to fall in the Arab world, and it all began in Tunisia.


A series of street protests in December 2010 and January 2011 led to the ouster of Tunisia's former president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled to Saudi Arabia on January 14.

The events in Tunisia have set off a chain reaction across the entire Arab world as citizens of Arab countries have been inspired by the Tunisians' people power movement.

Major demonstrations have been held in Yemen, Egypt, Algeria, and Jordan, and there have been smaller demonstrations and minor incidents in Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, Oman, Sudan, and Libya.

A demonstration was held in Jordan on January 14 in which protesters demanded that Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet step down.

After demonstrations in Yemen, on January 23, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced that he would step down when his current term expires in 2013.

Over the past week, the demonstrations in Egypt have gained steam every day, and it appears that President Hosni Mubarak may have to step down.

The situation has been compared to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which led to the collapse of communism in the Soviet satellite states of Eastern Europe.

But there are some major differences between the events of 1989 and the Arab world awakening of 2011 that make the comparison not completely accurate.

The current confrontation in the Arab world is not between authoritarian regimes and the forces of democracy.

The day of the authoritarian regimes is done. It may take a little longer for some of them to fall, but eventually they will all fall.

Even their patrons in the West are abandoning the dictators of the Arab world, as evidenced by Ben Ali's hasty departure.

The powers that be who run the Western world have decided that it is no longer in their interests to support puppet rulers running authoritarian regimes in the Arab world.

So they are turning to Plan B, which may have been prepared decades ago and put on the shelf until needed.

In Plan B, the Western powers will allow the authoritarian regimes of the Arab world to collapse and attempt to replace them with fake democracies run by puppet rulers beholden to their masters in the West.

And thus the current confrontation in the Arab world is actually between the forces of true democracy, who want independent countries, and the forces of fake democracy, who are seeking to establish comprador regimes, which would be the same old neocolonialism with a new face.

The forces of true democracy in the Arab world must be very careful in choosing their new leaders since the global ruling class does not want them to have independent governments and will do everything in their power to prevent such a turn of events.

And the globalists are adept at setting up governments that have all the trappings of democracy but which are actually client states with their vassals in charge.

Everything is in flux in the Arab world, which is a good thing since it provides an opportunity for change and progress after so many years of stagnation.

But there is also a great danger, since the Machiavellian manipulators of the global ruling class are skillful chaos players who plan ahead for such eventualities for decades.

The dominoes are truly falling in the Arab world, but it is not clear in which direction they are falling.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162927.html

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

1.) how did they figure out it was an Armenian? Because his body was found near an Armenian xxxelers store?
2.) Who is Ufuk Khanmammadov to have been "assassinated"?
3.) I seriously doubt the police are going to waste there time looking into this since the whole city is in turmoil?
4.) It has to be the ASALA, all there evidence points to the ASALA, or the Dashnaks.
5.) Mubarak, who is basically hiding right now, has enough time to call Aliyev and send his condolences?
6.) Even thou the US is telling Mubarak to step down now, it was the Armenians who tried to overthrow Mubarak?
7.) I guess these idiots don't know how well respected Armenians are in Egypt.
8.) If this is similar to khojaly than i guess the assassin was an azeri.
9.) When i read azeri embassy member assassinated and i saw that guys picture i was so happy that rat faced idiot was finally gone, but was sadly disappointed when i read it wasnt him.

It's a parody article I wrote ))
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Azerbaijani embassy staff member assassinated by Armenian 'cell' in Egypt


31 January 2011 [14:15] - Today.Az

An Azerbaijani embassy worker was gunned down Saturday evening in Egypt amidst the tumoil that has gripped the country since protestors took to the streets on January 25, calling for the resignation of democractically-elected President Hosni Mubarak.

The man, identified as 96 year-old Ufuk Khanmammadov, was on his way home from work when a masked assailant ambushed Khanmammadov and fired 3 shots, fatally wounding him. The man's body was found mutilated moments later by passerbys who immediately formed a human chain around the body in order to protect it from the fire that had ingulfed the nearby jewelry store that reportedly belongs to an Egyptian man of Armenian origin.

An Azerbaijani foreign ministry spokesman told Day.az on Monday that there have been unconfirmed reports that this was a targeted assassination attempt by an Armenian cell operating within the country. Egyptian police, who have been virtually ineffective in stopping the illegal protests taking place across the country, have vowed to concentrate all their efforts into tracking down the assailant and are looking into the possibility that the Armenian xxxeler, whose shop was burning next to scene of the crime, was linked to the assassination.

"The Egyptian police have been highly cooperative with the investigation so far and we continue to value the effort they have put in order to track down the criminals and bring justice to the biggest crime against Azerbaijan since Xocalu." said Azerbaijani embassy staff member Vugar Abiyev. When asked if there might be a connection between Xocalu and this murder by Day.az staff, Abiyev responded that he suspects there is a link given the similarities between the mutilation of dead Azerbaijani bodies in Xocalu and the mutilation of Khanmammadov.

Notable Azerbaijani expert in Middle East affairs Dr. Javid Bayramov thinks that a dormant ASALA cell in Egypt is responsible for the assassination. "This definitely has the hallmarks of the Armenian terror group ASALA. ASALA is notorious for committing such crimes against humanity. Let us recall the countless murders of innocent women and children in the 1970s and 80s."

When asked whether Dr. Bayramov believes ASALA might have a hand in formenting the Egyptian unrest that has threatened President Mubarak, Dr. Bayramov was quoted as saying that it is rather another Armenian terror organisation, ARF Dashnakcutyun that is inciting the riots throughout the country. "The Dashnaks are well established in Egypt for decades now and they have waited for an opportunity to turn Egypt against their Muslim brothers in Turkey and Azerbaijan. Hosni Mubarak has been a great friend of Azerbaijan and this has probably incited them to topple the government. They did the same thing with Boghos Nubar Pasha in the early 1900s and possibly want a repeat scenario."

Meanwhile, protestors made up of mostly unemployed men and Karabakh Liberation Organisation (KLO) members took to the streets in Baku to condemn the killing and chanting "Justice for Khanmammadov, justice for Xocalu! NO to Armenian terrorism! NO to Dashnaks!"

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev appeared on state television to condemn the killing and vowed to take back Karabakh by force as a reprisal if Armenia was found to be sheltering the suspect. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak meanwhile took time off from his busy schedule to call president Aliyev in order to offer his condolences.

/APA/

URL: http://www.today.az/?=this_link_does_not_work

1.) how did they figure out it was an Armenian? Because his body was found near an Armenian xxxelers store?
2.) Who is Ufuk Khanmammadov to have been "assassinated"?
3.) I seriously doubt the police are going to waste there time looking into this since the whole city is in turmoil?
4.) It has to be the ASALA, all there evidence points to the ASALA, or the Dashnaks.
5.) Mubarak, who is basically hiding right now, has enough time to call Aliyev and send his condolences?
6.) Even thou the US is telling Mubarak to step down now, it was the Armenians who tried to overthrow Mubarak?
7.) I guess these idiots don't know how well respected Armenians are in Egypt.
8.) If this is similar to khojaly than i guess the assassin was an azeri.
9.) When i read azeri embassy member assassinated and i saw that guys picture i was so happy that rat faced idiot was finally gone, but was sadly disappointed when i read it wasnt him.

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Azerbaijan is going to think it was an Egyptian-Armenian that killed him.

Azerbaijani embassy staff member assassinated by Armenian 'cell' in Egypt


31 January 2011 [14:15] - Today.Az

An Azerbaijani embassy worker was gunned down Saturday evening in Egypt amidst the tumoil that has gripped the country since protestors took to the streets on January 25, calling for the resignation of democractically-elected President Hosni Mubarak.

The man, identified as 96 year-old Ufuk Khanmammadov, was on his way home from work when a masked assailant ambushed Khanmammadov and fired 3 shots, fatally wounding him. The man's body was found mutilated moments later by passerbys who immediately formed a human chain around the body in order to protect it from the fire that had ingulfed the nearby jewelry store that reportedly belongs to an Egyptian man of Armenian origin.

An Azerbaijani foreign ministry spokesman told Day.az on Monday that there have been unconfirmed reports that this was a targeted assassination attempt by an Armenian cell operating within the country. Egyptian police, who have been virtually ineffective in stopping the illegal protests taking place across the country, have vowed to concentrate all their efforts into tracking down the assailant and are looking into the possibility that the Armenian xxxeler, whose shop was burning next to scene of the crime, was linked to the assassination.

"The Egyptian police have been highly cooperative with the investigation so far and we continue to value the effort they have put in order to track down the criminals and bring justice to the biggest crime against Azerbaijan since Xocalu." said Azerbaijani embassy staff member Vugar Abiyev. When asked if there might be a connection between Xocalu and this murder by Day.az staff, Abiyev responded that he suspects there is a link given the similarities between the mutilation of dead Azerbaijani bodies in Xocalu and the mutilation of Khanmammadov.

Notable Azerbaijani expert in Middle East affairs Dr. Javid Bayramov thinks that a dormant ASALA cell in Egypt is responsible for the assassination. "This definitely has the hallmarks of the Armenian terror group ASALA. ASALA is notorious for committing such crimes against humanity. Let us recall the countless murders of innocent women and children in the 1970s and 80s."

When asked whether Dr. Bayramov believes ASALA might have a hand in formenting the Egyptian unrest that has threatened President Mubarak, Dr. Bayramov was quoted as saying that it is rather another Armenian terror organisation, ARF Dashnakcutyun that is inciting the riots throughout the country. "The Dashnaks are well established in Egypt for decades now and they have waited for an opportunity to turn Egypt against their Muslim brothers in Turkey and Azerbaijan. Hosni Mubarak has been a great friend of Azerbaijan and this has probably incited them to topple the government. They did the same thing with Boghos Nubar Pasha in the early 1900s and possibly want a repeat scenario."

Meanwhile, protestors made up of mostly unemployed men and Karabakh Liberation Organisation (KLO) members took to the streets in Baku to condemn the killing and chanting "Justice for Khanmammadov, justice for Xocalu! NO to Armenian terrorism! NO to Dashnaks!"

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev appeared on state television to condemn the killing and vowed to take back Karabakh by force as a reprisal if Armenia was found to be sheltering the suspect. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak meanwhile took time off from his busy schedule to call president Aliyev in order to offer his condolences.

/APA/

URL: http://www.today.az/?=this_link_does_not_work