Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Aram I is badass.

I remember last summer in Lebanon, Aram I totally destroyed this famous Arab policitian (Amine Gemayel) who called Armenians "not true Christians nor Lebanese" after we voted against that politician's party (Phalange party) causing him to lose the district. He told him where was your family when Armenians settled in 1915?... ironically pointing out that the Gemayel family has its origins in Egypt and were not in Lebanon at that time. Also pointing out that Armenians have had a presence in what is known today as Lebanon since Tigran Mets times.

In less than 24 hours, Gemayel scheduled a meeting with Aram I where he publicly apologized for all his statements... basically kissed his ass

Knowing the kind of personality he has, I can perfectly imagine the incident. He is a very intelligent and charismatic leader.

[Federate]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's interesting that Aram I is a very politically active religious leader, he travels everywhere, meets with world leaders, makes various comments in condemnation or support of different issues but I have not seen Catholics Garegin II of Edjmiadzin as active.

Aram I is badass.

I remember last summer in Lebanon, Aram I totally destroyed this famous Arab policitian (Amine Gemayel) who called Armenians "not true Christians nor Lebanese" after we voted against that politician's party (Phalange party) causing him to lose the district. He told him where was your family when Armenians settled in 1915?... ironically pointing out that the Gemayel family has its origins in Egypt and were not in Lebanon at that time. Also pointing out that Armenians have had a presence in what is known today as Lebanon since Tigran Mets times.

In less than 24 hours, Gemayel scheduled a meeting with Aram I where he publicly apologized for all his statements... basically kissed his ass

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's interesting that Aram I is a very politically active religious leader, he travels everywhere, meets with world leaders, makes various comments in condemnation or support of different issues but I have not seen Catholics Garegin II of Edjmiadzin as active and influential on different levels.



President: Divine religions sympathetic to each other



President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that all ethnics and religious minorities in Iran, including the Armenians, coexist peacefully.

In the Islamic Republic of Iran all religions as well as ethnic groups share the sorrow or joys of each other, he said adding that they adopted a unified stand during the eight years of sacred defense (Iraq-imposed war of 1980-1988) and now spare no efforts to ensure the country's progress, development and construction.
President Ahmadinejad made the remarks in a meeting with Bishop of Armenian Orthodox Church in Cilici Aram I Keshishian in Tehran on Tuesday.
All disputes and problems of humanity have roots are rooted in atheism, he said.
All prophets believed in one unique reality because they all had one message and all sought prosperity of humanity, he said.
All people around the globe are discontent with the current situation in the world and seek someone who will appear to rescue the world, he said.
Both Islam and Christianity believe that some day somebody will come to rescue the world which is regarded as the mystery and the view is common among followers of divine religions, he said.
It is among the duties of religious leaders to invite people to monotheism, he said.
"We should contribute to eradicate the root causes of wars, occupation, aggression, discrimination and poverty in the world," he said.
Referring to continued wars, conflicts and carnage round the world by bullying powers in the 20th century, he said "If the believers collaborate with each other they can prevent many catastrophe and play a very much constructive role to this end."
The Armenian Orthodox archbishop, for his part, expressed satisfaction with the peaceful co-existence of religious minorities in Iran and said the Armenian society has deep-rooted historical ties with Iranian nation and have lived in peace and friendship with each other for many years.
"We are among the real supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he concluded.

Source:http://www1.irna.ir/en/news/view/lin...5548192311.htm

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iranian pilots show off dogfighting skills in war games

The Iranian Air Force started on Friday large scale combat drills in the northwest of the country with simulated dogfights, the IAF press service said in a statement. "Iranian fighters and bombers took off early on Friday from various airfields throughout the country and conducted a number of simulated dogfights. All the missions were well-organized and were performed successfully," the statement said. Friday's war games also included missions performed by domestic Saegheh fighters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and reconnaissance aircraft. The exercises are being held near Tabriz in Iran's East Azerbaijan Province to "demonstrate the might and combat readiness of Iran's Air Force." They involve the entire range of Iran's fighter fleet, including U.S.-made F-4, F-5, F-7 and F-14 fighters and domestic Saegheh fighters. Mid-air refueling is provided by Boeing 707 aerial tankers. The aircraft are flying simulated combat missions from air fields in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz and Hamadan. Iran has conducted several high-profile war games this year. The United States and Israel have consistently refused to rule out the possibility of military strikes against Iran over its refusal to halt its nuclear program.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20081017/117796983.html

And this from Debka:

Large-scale Iranian Air force exercise simulates attack on Israel

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the drill beginning Thursday, Oct. 16 in northern Iran, is Tehran’s rejoinder to Israel’s big aerial maneuver last June. Then, more than 100 Israeli fighter-bombers went through their paces over the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas, roughly the same distance from Israel as Iran. Tehran’s media claim the exercise will test its air force’s ability to fly to Israel and back without refueling. The exercise will also test the US-made FBX-T band anti-missile radar system delivered in September and installed at the IAF Nevatim air base in the Negev. The Iranians say they will be practicing their “state-of-the-art military equipment and flight tactics,” meaning an attempt to jam US and Israeli electronics and radar. According to Iranian media, the entire range of Iran's fighter fleet will take part, including US-made F-4, F-5, F-7 and F-14 fighters and domestic Saegheh fighters. Mid-air refueling will be provided by Boeing 707 aerial tankers. In mid-August, Iran's Air Force chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, maintained that its antiquated fighter jet fleet had been overhauled and upgraded to fly distances of 3,000 kilometers without refueling. That would be more than double the distance between Iran and Israel. That is why Tabriz, in Azerbaijan, at the northwestern corner of Iran, was picked as the starting point of the exercise. The official communiqué said the planes would be flying from air fields in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz and Hamadan and Dezful. Our military sources say that this means that the entire maneuver will take place over Iran and not venture out its air space. The planes will have to fly to Tabriz from bases in the south near the Pakistan border in order to replicate the more than 1,200 km distance between Iran and Israel. The Iranian Air force also aims at deploying more than 100 warplanes for the exercise, matching the number Israel used in its maneuver four months ago. Tehran has timed this large-scale drill for just three weeks before the US presidential election on Nov. 4, in response to speculation rife in the West that Israel may use the window between the US election and the swearing-in of the new president in January for an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. The Iranians aim to show they have a first and second strike capability - not just with ballistic missiles but also by aerial attack.

Source: http://www.debka.com/

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Lawmaker Doubts U.S. Can Attack Iran

In the present conditions, the United States lacks both the military and financial means to attack Iran, deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma Valery Yazuev told journalists on Monday. Talk of a U.S. attack on Iran analogical to its invasion of Iraq is only being used to excite the public, he said. Yazuev suggested that the topic is being used as an attempt to provoke Iran into violent action against Israel, giving the U.S. grounds for retaliation against Iran. Yazuev compared the situation to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia. He added that Iran is very well armed and has armed forces larger than Russia’s at 1.2 million people, not counting the Islamic Guard. Yazuev recalled Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent statement that “If anyone dares to take even an insignificant offensive against the legal interests of Iran, its borders or its holy land, our forces will break his arm off before he has a chance to press the button.” Yazuev said that there has been repeated mention of a preventive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in U.S. and Israeli military circles. He also said that there is no basis for thinking that Iran is engaged in the development of nuclear arms.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13392/r_...ian_relations/

[Federate]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Armenia should gradually start switching to other sources of energy such as nuclear energy and once we're set for it in the long run, switch to renewable energy. We need to make our country as less dependent on oil and gas as possible. These things are outdated stuff which are too expensive, unreliable and pollutant. We need to build Metsamor II (or whatever it's gonna be called) ASAP and possibly spring up another NPP around Syunik/Artsakh. And for the love of Armenia, try not to sell these new ones to the highest bidder.

[Armanen]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Doesn't the cost of oil and natural gas go up the further it must travel? If so then it makes sense why gas from Iran would be cheaper than from Russia.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I had talked to Mahmoud a while ago:

The Russians are charging 110$ per thousand cubic and soon 154$ while the Iranians still demand 85$... So it is almost half the price offered by Russia. Big difference...

This is good news indeed. However, I would not celebrate as of now. Let's see what the real charge will be once gas begins to flow. I think Moscow is getting over two hundred dollars per a thousand cubic meters of gas, Iran's prices can't be too far behind.

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I am curious how Iranian prices would compare...

Lucin jan, do you know the price Iran will be charging for gas supplies to Armenia? And what makes you think Russian gas supplies to Armenia is expensive? Russian gas price for Armenia is still much lower than what Moscow charges on the international market.

I had talked to Mahmoud a while ago:

GAS FROM IRAN TO BREAK GAZPROM'S MONOPOLY IN ARMENIA

By Vladimir Socor

Friday, January 20, 2006

Under agreement with Armenia's government, the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) is laying a pipeline from Tabriz in northwestern Iran to Armenia, at a cost of $220 million. With construction now running slightly ahead of schedule, the 160 kilometer line is expected to be commissioned in autumn 2006 and to operate at full capacity by mid-2007. The price of gas has been agreed at $85 per one thousand cubic meters at the Armenian border. The line is scheduled to supply Armenia with 1.1 billion cubic meters of gas annually in the first four years of operation, with the option to double that volume in the ensuing years.

By way of comparison, Russia supplied Armenia with 1.7 billion cubic meters of gas in 2005 at the old price of $54 to $56 per one thousand cubic meters, and now demands $110 per one thousand cubic meters as of April 1. Prior to the start of the Iran project, Moscow cajoled Yerevan into accepting a change in design, halving the line's diameter to 770 millimeters, so as to preclude export of Iranian gas via Armenia to Georgia.

**********

IRAN TO SUPPLY ARMENIA WITH GAS AND ARMENIA TO EXPORT ELECTRICITY TO IRAN

By Emil Danielyan

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The launch of the pipeline from Iran could thus hardly come at a better time for Armenia. Access to Iranian gas will not only give Yerevan a viable alternative to Russian deliveries but could strengthen its bargaining position in difficult tariff negotiations with Gazprom. The Russian monopoly plans gradually to raise its gas price for Armenia, which is currently set at $110 per thousand cubic meters, to international levels. Under an agreement signed by Gazprom and ARG executives in Moscow on September 17 and disclosed by the Armenian government a week later, the price will rise to $154 per thousand cubic meters in April 2009 and on to $200 in April 2010. Yerevan’s bargaining position will be limited, however, by the fact that Gazprom has a controlling share in ARG. Whether the Armenian gas company will be ready to cut back on supplies from its parent company if the Iranians offer it a better deal remains to be seen.

The Russians are charging 110$ per thousand cubic and soon 154$ while the Iranians still demand 85$... So it is almost half the price offered by Russia. Big difference...

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I wonder if Armenia would still need the expensive Russian gas?

Lucin jan, do you know the price Iran will be charging for gas supplies to Armenia? And what makes you think Russian gas supplies to Armenia is expensive? Russian gas price for Armenia is still much lower than what Moscow charges on the international market.

And how would the Russians react?

Had they not been in favor the project would have never gone forward. And like Skhara said, Gazprom holds major stakes in the pipeline in question - for assurance, of course. According to some reports, Gazprom made sure that the pipeline was big enough to satisfy Armenia's gas needs, yet too small for it to provide Iran access into the gas market beyond Armenia. So, as long as Moscow controls the Iran-Armenia pipeline, it does not have problems with Yerevan purchasing gas from Iran.