Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[robertik1]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Thanks for your take also, Zoravar.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I would like to hear Zoravar's take on this matter as well.

Sorry for showing up late. Last couple of days I was in 3 continents (Asia, Europe and N. America) and travelled about 12,000 kms. Needless to say that I am writing these lines while tired, jetlagged etc.

As far as an attack on Iran would concern:

Someone has said that "starting a war is easy, ending it or controlling its outcome is difficult".

No country in the world would engage its army into a long, protracted ground war against the 80 million strong Persian nation. The results will be extremely costly and unpredictable. Only a madman like Saddam would do it...and we all know how it all ended up for him...

Having said that, the USA and/or Israel could launch a limited short term air assault on Iran to destroy nuclear (or other) installations.
A possible air strike will not take the Iranians by surprise as the threats and sabre-ratlling have been going on for a long time. However, the attackers can still make an air offensive successfull by choosing correctly the "where", "when" and "how". Current Iranian air defenses are limited in capability and can be beaten by the most modern airborne assets of the US and/or Israel. Even if the Iranians get their hands on the very capable S-300 anti air missiles from Russia, a few such batteries can be overwhelmed and saturated by hundreds of cruise missiles arriving at around the same time. By the way, the S-300s are not yet in Iran, and even if they get them today, it will take a year or two until the Iranian crews become proficient with these complicated systems.

Yes, the Americans can successfully wholy (or partially) destroy the Iranian nuclear installations with a well planned air strike. The Israelis can succeed too but, because of their smaller forces and the greater distances, they will be able to strike at only one or two targets only. The fact that their warplanes will have to cross third countries (to reach Iran) will complicate matters further both politically and militarily.

If an American/Israeli air strike happens:

- If the attack fails and the Iranian targets are not destroyed: Iran willl claim military victory. It will also gain politically.

- If the attack succeeds and the targets are fully (or partially) destroyed: The Iranian nuclear program will receive a temporary setback (it will take -at most- a few years to recover). However, as Armenian pointed out, Iran can retaliate in different ways.

Here are a few of the options open to the Iranian leadership:

Hard options: They will opt for these if they want to escalate the situation and cause a longer conflict in which they will suffer immensely, but the US, the West and Israel will pay a very heavy price too.
- Launching a retaliatory counter stike on Israel with their long-range surface to surface missiles: this will force the Israelis and/or the US into launching further raids into Iran. The conflict will eventually escalate into a full-scale war that the West can not afford.
- Launching retaliatory strikes against the US forces in Iraq (and/or Afghanistan): That too will mean full scale war that the West does not want.
-Mining the straights of Hormuz, attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf, stopping their own oil exports, etc.: The Iranians can easily do all that and force a shortage of Oil, dangerous price hikes, economical crisis etc.etc. The West can not afford all that.

Soft options: Because of the limited nature of a US/Israeli air strike, I believe that the Iranians will opt to these more limited options which are meant to make things more difficult in the long run for the USA and Israel. They will take a longer time but will be very effective.
- Proxy wars: A good example will be Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranians can simply double their financial and military support for that organization. They can also increase aid to Syria and invite them to take an even harder stand in politics. Another candidate could be Hamas. In short, anyone or anything that is blacklisted or labeled "terrorist" will receive additional financial/military/political assistance.
- Closer political and military cooperation with Russia: No doubt Russia will condems any military attack on Iran. As a result there will be a multi-billion $$$ deal of supplying Russian weapons to Iran. The Russians will benefit financially while the Iranians will become even stronger. The air strike will not be such a bad thing after all!!!
- Arming the insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan: despite all claims and rhetoric by the USA, the Iranians have been very restrained in helping the anti-US/NATO forces in those 2 countries. In case of a strike against Iran, all the cards will come down. We will see sophisticated and capable weapons being used against the Americans. I am talking about MANPADS (man portable air defense systems) that will make life very difficult to US helicopters and aircraft. ATGWs (antitank guided missiles) being fired at them from long ranges (instead of the rudimentary RPGs). Sophisticated mines instead of home-made IEDs etc.etc. All of these weapons and financial backing will hurt the US so much that a humiliating pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan will be on the table...

No wonder no attack has occurred thus far. Iran has just too many options, too many cards, too many aces...and both sides know it.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Gazprom eyes Iran's oil, gas fields

Gazprom is interested in developing Iran's oil and gas deposits, the Russian energy giant said on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller had a meeting with Iran's Petroleum Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari, to discuss in particular cooperation between Gazprom and Iranian oil and gas companies. "Prospecting, development and operation of Iranian oil and gas deposits was cited among the main lines of cooperation. The parties reiterated their interest in strengthening mutually beneficial long-term partnerships in the energy sphere," the Russian company said in a statement. Gazprom has been involved in a project to develop and operate South Pars (reportedly the world's largest gas field with reserves of 14 trillion cubic meters) since 1997. On July 13, 2008, Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) signed a memorandum of mutual understanding.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/business/20081224/119159376.html

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

we're kind of your children, sort to say. your muslim, turkish speaking successors.

Interesting choice of words... The way you phrased it is powerful and profoundly sad at the same time. Many emotions/conclusions can be derived from it. Difficult to put it in words.

[Azad]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

we're kind of your children, sort to say.

You are smart to acknowledge it. Armenians are the ones that did not get diluted.

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I must surmise that you have some Armenian blood in you...

turks are a product of the armenians, byzantines (greeks) assyrians and other mostly christian original inhabitants of the anatolian peninsula. no guess as to why we look more european than we do to our altaic ancestors of central asia, who look more mongolian than us.

we're kind of your children, sort to say. your muslim, turkish speaking successors.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

...the iranian oil bourse is a threat to status of the dollar - it means its collapse. saddam was attacked because he switched to selling oil in euros. they sent a message to the world by attacking saddam that nobody is going to challenge the dollar. after the invasion turned into a disaster, iran was emboldened and went ahead with the bourse. the situation the US is faced with is really unpleasant: attack now and face an immediate worldwide depression with the closing of the hormuz, or dont attack and the dollar eventually collapses when customers begin to buy oil in euros yen or rubles...

A very accurate description of what is taking place, Turco. It seems to me that you an intelligent Turk. Since "intelligent" and "Turk" don't go together, I must surmise that you have some Armenian blood in you...

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

they're shˇtting in their pants.

the iranian oil bourse is a threat to status of the dollar - it means its collapse. saddam was attacked because he switched to selling oil in euros. they sent a message to the world by attacking saddam that nobody is going to challenge the dollar. after the invasion turned into a disaster, iran was emboldened and went ahead with the bourse. the situation the US is faced with is really unpleasant: attack now and face an immediate worldwide depression with the closing of the hormuz, or dont attack and the dollar eventually collapses when customers begin to buy oil in euros yen or rubles.

the u.s. is trying to buy time to figure out what it can do without destroying itself impulsively. they're upping the troop presence in afghanistan maybe to force iran to redirect some of its missile defenses in that direction to lessen the blow for the hormuz straits.

they'll probably try to push for the balochis (mostly sunni) in the east of iran to start their own independence movement and begin to supply some balochi independence groups to create a disintegration nightmare for iran. balochis are on the border with pakistan and iran - all the more reason to dinsintegrate pakistan as well.

internal overthrow of the iranian regime is close to impossible; the iranian government is entrenched in the military and security agencies, a regime change wont happen without direct military confrontation. internal threats such as secularists dont have any realistic way of overthrowing the iranian regime.

to them, the iranians must be dealt with. to let iran continue is not an option but doing something is a graver option.

time is running out. a candle flame rages when it is being blown out. the US isnt at the peak of its rage. it will rage only more

[robertik1]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

This answered my question pretty well. Thanks again.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Lucin jan, you are correct. Iran can do a lot to ruin Western plans in Afghanistan as well.

Robertik1, I just found my previous reply to a question similar to the one you posted. Read it and let me know if you have any other questions. I would like to hear Zoravar's take on this matter as well.

Good question. But a difficult/complex question. I may have attempted to answer a similar question in this thread already. I am not sure. Nevertheless, Israel can not do it alone, they will need support from the US and regional Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Mind you that this support does not necessarily have to be public, it could be clandestine/covert. I believe that Israel will get support from the US, Jordan and Saudi Arabia if and when they decide they will strike Iran.

Naturally, the IAF will use their upgraded F-15s and F-16s. For target acquisition they will rely on CIA and Mossad human intelligence as well as satellite/aircraft reconnaissance information. They will need an air corridor secured over Jordan and Iraq. They will most probably also need the US for aerial refueling if need be. The weapon of choice will be selected from a large array of laser guided bombs and/or missiles. The fundamental tactical problem would be range/fuel considerations and being detected on route, perhaps by Russian intelligence.

Even if the IAF solved the range/fuel problem and reached its target/s undetected there would still be a problem with knocking out all the nuclear sites. This is a serious problem. Based on what I have been reading and hearing, Iran has been spreading its nuclear facilities across the nation in many underground and undisclosed locations. At best, the IAF may be able to knock out a few of these sites, perhaps the most important ones or the biggest ones. However, knocking out the entire nuclear network may prove to be virtually impossible, unless of course they have a high level spy/agent working within Iran's nuclear program. With only a few sites hit, Iran will be able to recover relatively quickly.

Regarding anti-aircraft capabilities: Pardon the pun, but it's still up in the air. The Russian anti-aircraft systems said to be protecting some of the more sensitive sites in Iran are said to be some of the finest in the world. However, they have not been tested in combat. What's more, we don't know what countermeasures the IAF and the USAF are devising. They may have figured out a way to crack the anti-aircraft defense system. Maybe not. We know, however, that they performed a successful trial mission late last year, essentially a live fire exercise using new radar jammers, where they struck some mysterious site deep inside the Syrian desert.

Nonetheless, with or without a capable anti-aircraft defense in Iran the IAF will have a very difficult tactical task on its hands. Their mission won't succeed because the IAF will not be able to stop Iran nuclear drive. Thus, the strike may be a strategic failure. Moreover, what we are not taking into serious consideration the other strategic aspect of such a strike, the factor of the aftermath. That is where the real problem for Israel, US and the rest lies. They may succeed in hitting and destroying some sites in Iran but what kind of a response will Tehran take is the big question.

Tehran can potentially wreak havoc in the region if is chooses to -

It can shut down the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, ruining Europe's economy within a couple of days.

It can instigate a major uprising against American troops in Iraq using its strong assets in the majority Shiite population there.

It can hit US and coalition navy ships in the Persian Gulf using various Russian and Chinese made anti-ship missiles.

It can hit various tactical and strategic targets throughout the region by its medium and long range ballistic missiles.

As you can see, it can get very ugly.

In any case, the tactical and strategic advantages lie with Tehran at this point. A strike won't stop their nuclear program and such a strike may cause very nasty repercussions. This is serious. In my opinion, nothing this serious has been faced by the US military since the Second World War. Perhaps that is why the US military as well as Israel are dragging their feet.